Wow, that was a rough one...

This has happened the last umpteen years, why wouldn't we expect it? I know I do.

...and yeah, no since getting pi**ed off about it. Ain't gonna change nothin.

 

I respect your point-of-view. Like I said, losing isn't the issue for me. It is repeating the same pattern of losing games you aren't supposed to lose while making the same mistakes over and over again. That is, and should be unacceptable when we are paying the kind of money we are paying. High school coaches lose their jobs for less.

I also think Stoops has done an amazing job at OU. I'm not even close to wanting him to leave. I'd just like him to one again start expecting and demanding perfect execution from players AND coaches..

 

But the math doesn't support this. Let's say an elite team has a 90% chance of winning every game on it's schedule. So point to any game and it is not supposed to lose it, right? If you string 12 of those games in a row, there is only a 28% chance of winning them all, so the math says the team *IS* supposed to lose at least one of them. So when that inevitable loss happens, there will be mistakes, questionable time management, bad play calling, yada yada yada. And we'll look at it under a microscope on why the team lost that single game it shouldn't lose. But looking from the 50,000ft level, the math just did it's thing.

Going to the P5 conferences and the 4 team playoff (and mostly likely 8 pretty soon) this is going to happen more often. The elite players that go to non-P5 schools will now squeeze into the P5 school and introduce more parity. It will become more and more like the NFL where 12-4 is a dominate record, and a team like the Patriots can look like the worst team in the league one week and then beat the tar out of an undefeated team the next. Having a truly dominate team that has a high probability of running the table will become more and more rare.

 

You are correct, that math does not add up. If a team has a 90% chance to win each of 12 games, then they have 12 90% chances - nothing more. It's like if you flip a coin 12 times - it is just as likely to land on heads all 12 or tails all 12 as it is to split 6 & 6. It does not mean they have a 28% chance of going undefeated as that would suppose that each game mathematically influences the other games - which is wrong.

 

So who's your HC candidate?

 

I haven't been that stressed out watching a game in a long time. By halftime it seemed like it should have been the 4th quarter.

 

The 28% chance in that simple example is before the season starts. Of course the odds change as the games are played. Once a team is 4-0, then the odds are based on going 8-0 from there. This simple example is exactly assuming that each game is independent and do not influence each other - the opposite of what you said. You are dead wrong about the coin flip. The odds of next 12 flips coming up all heads is .024%. That would be the odds of a CFB team running the table in a 12 games season in a perfect parity situation where every game is a "pick 'em" by the odds makers. Now if you have already flipped the coin 11 times and happen to be the 1 in 2000 lucky person to flip all heads, then the odds are 50/50 to make 12.

But football is certainly not like flipping a coin or rolling a 10 faced dice (that would allow the 90% example). Each game has it's own odds of winning and they are dependent on each other. We had a close to 100% chance of beating Tulsa and Louisiana Tech, but just playing those games could result in injuries that impact future games. And the video from those games gave coaches of future opponents something to study and plan against. So the math is much more complicated, but the bottom line is that winning 12 games in a row is extremely unlikely even if a team is far superior to every team on the schedule. And on most schedules, there is a team or 2 where the difference is not that big.

 

My take from the game was this:

The defensive line struggled. Early on they couldn't stop the option and QB rushes, so to prevent that they drop back and try to contain the QB. Boykin had all day to throw and eventually there will be a breakdown in coverage. I couldn't believe I saw D-linemen standing up at the line and not engaging to trying to get to the QB.

The offensive line struggled. TCU defenders were constantly in the backfield and getting pressure on Knight. There were some good runs, but for the most part the holes in the line were not there. It's tough when the two strengths of the team fail you.

Knight played poor. He did hit some deep balls, but his accuracy was lacking again. He was locking in on his target the entire play and wouldn't check his other options. There were many times a receiver or Bell was wide open, but he tried to force it into tight coverage. I'm starting to have Landry flashbacks, yet Landry may have had the better arm. The emergence of the QB draw was a HUGE plus.

Our receiving core is not good, obviously besides Shepard and maybe Neal. I don't know what the deal is, but our young crop of WRs can't see the field or help make a difference.

I don't know why the offensive play calls gets to Knight so late in the play clock. There were many times the team would be standing around and he wouldn't get the call until 10 seconds or less. Does Heupel check how the defense is lined up before sending in the call?

I heard that this past week of practice went horrible, unlike the previous two. The team wasn't motivated and was flat. They were obviously confused, as we had to keep burning timeouts because we didn't have the right personnel on the field (once even after a timeout). I don't know how this can happen going on the road against a Top 25 team.

I'm going to stay optimistic going forward and can bet that we can still make the playoff if we win out. Hopefully this loss will wake the team up and they will respond like last year after Baylor.

 

Sometimes you just get beat. It happens. Happened to both of our teams on Saturday. I have a feeling that the Sooners will bounce back nicely but my Tide has some real issues. This is the most undisciplined Saban-caoched team I've ever seen, and injuries are starting to mount. No way we win out.

 

Just beat Auburn, and you'll feel better after the season is over.

 

Anyone who will fire the offensive coordinators.

 

Let me tell you what Bama's problem is, because it's the same as ours: it's not good enough in the offensive coordinator's mind to win with the run game. Kiffin has Alabama running those stupid behind the line of scrimmage passes that we have been stuck with for a long time.

You've got Yeldon and Henry, yet Kiffin wants to try to be cute with the offense.

Like us, you'll win many games simply because you have more talent at all other positions than most of your opponents. But, the downside is you'll fart away two or three games a year.

Here's where your Saban and the AD are tested. Will they be different than Bob Stoops in this regard? Than Joe Castiglione? That is, will Saban continue to watch the same crap year after year and not fire the offensive coordinator (in our case, coordinators). And, will your AD continue to give him more money and contract extensions for the same thing year after year?

We're now 10 years down the road of losing to teams worse than us two or three times a year. But, the school is making money, so it doesn't matter. Will Bama fans be as placid?

Somehow, I doubt it because they've tasted more championships than we have here. And, my guess is, losses eat at Saban more than they do at Stoops.

 

Plus, our best QB is now a tight end. So, I'm not sure things are that out of whack in talent evaluation yet at Bama...but, if Saban gives Kiffin the same ridiculous leeway that Stoops gives his offensive coaches...be prepared for the same in the future.

 

Not so sure about that. Saturday, TK looked a whole lot like Bell did last year in Dallas.

 

Believe me, I understand the big picture: Bell crucified for one bad game, Knight sainted for one good game = fans stuck with Knight's erratic play, hoping against all logical evidence that he will someday magically have a quick enough release by the time he graduates to quit throwing behind receivers.

 

I actually think he can if he is fed a bunch of short, easy throws to get into a rhythm. But he certainly won't dropping back for all medium to long routes. His confidence is shot right now and I don't see how he gets it back with the current strategy. Maybe it's because Ford is out, so he doesn't throw outlets to the RB even though I thought Perine had hands too. Another approach is to bench him for the backup, but that is a last resort for Stoops even though it has worked for other coaches. Since Bell is 100% practicing at TE, I don't see that as a quick fix, but might be worth a try.

 

I think TK can improve but will never be a good (consistent, accurate) drop back passer. He is a prototype read option QB which the coaching staff doesn't want running the ball. I'm not sure where the coaching staff is going to go with this.

 

It takes more than just the QB to run a read/option offense. I don't think our OCs have the knowledge to do this. I'd just like to see TK play like Blake Sims is playing at Bama. Use his legs to make him very difficult to sack or even pressure. Normally, when a QB escapes containment and starts looking down field, you hold your breath that a big play is coming. With TK this year, he rarely finds someone and ends up either just running or throwing the ball away.

 

Yeah, I'm sure why Perine or even Ross didn't get very many passes out of back field. I think missing ford really hurt us this game. I'm by no means saying Ford would have won us the game, but other than Shepherd, that's TK security blanket and one damn good one.


Hate to say it, but I think TCU has damn good team. We will see even more this weekend how good they really are.

 

This weekend, we will see whether UT's clamping down of Baylor was a fluke or not. Their offense is horrible. But...

...their offense was being executed by Derp last season when they whipped us. Swoopes surely can't be as bad as Derp (here, I admit to not watching a single down of Texas football yet this season). On paper, their offense seems horrible; and, I know most of that is because Charlie Strong is not letting them smoke dope and cut classes anymore...which wiped out a good chuck of his roster (hard to get up for those African American studies and Recreational Science classes when you chillun' at the crib after a good blunt).

I'm not worried about their offense. I'm worried about their defense stuffing us based on our offensive coaches putting their collective heads in their arses last Saturday...and, then Stoops seeming to be fine with it.