I'm glad I got some more APPLsauce when it dipped below 400. My best one lately has been LinkedIn (LNKD). More than doubled since I bought it. I'm finally seeing my Facebook IPO venture about to come back. They can't all be winners. I just don't want all to be losers. Facebook was just a 'fun' investment anyway. No major exposure. Lately I'm been buying more Coca Cola, Proctor & Gamble, General Mills and Nike. Just stuff that I know won't take big hits. 5-0
I'm not sure they even know when they'll cut it off. What I do believe is that the market will be hesitant to do anything until the fed makes a call one way or another. Volume has been pretty light all around.
I sold a very significant position in APPL (for myself and all but one of my clients) right when it hit $700. I looked like a hero, even though I was just profit taking. But hey, if they think I'm good, then that's good. Seriously though, I put profits into Google (which wasn't much of a risk aversion technique) for myself and about half my clients. Now, I'm in a position with Google that I felt like I was with Apple when it hit $700. I'm not sure if I want to stay with it, or opportunity hunt. Retail is a great place to look right now. It's been beaten up recently, but overall is an industry that will move forward. I missed the LinkedIn boat, but that has been a good one. I stayed away from Facebook altogether, but it is starting to look like it may work out. One thing I noticed is that Facebook has really stepped up their advertising. Now, there are even ads in the home feed. I'm sure that was something the board saw as an opportunity to increase the bottom line, and it appears to be working.
I'm kinda embarrassed to admit I only own 5 (count 'em) shares of Google. At the time it just seemed too much and that was at around $450 per share. I guess some earnings are better than none. 5-0
So swamis, buying dip, or the start of something more drawn out? I didn't think the Syria thing was a legit threat, just talk. Still not much in the mood for buying, want the tapering and interest rate picture to clear up. 8Timer, if you see this, do you have much of an opinion of Charles Biderman and Trim Tabs? I guess he's a regular on CNBC. I confess I put a small amount in the Float Shrink fund, despite its semi-high fees, a while back. I generally gravitate toward indexes, but you gotta have a few vices.
I've always liked Biderman, although I've never used his TTFS. I don't see anything that would alarm me, or convince me to sell if I were in it. You pretty much know what the goal of the fund is, and you can measure the performance pretty easily. One thing I will say about Birderman is that he does tend to be a little bit of a "predictor", and I know that's attractive, but just be aware that he can be a little aggressive when he's timing his moves. Right now, I think the whole Syria thing is having more affect on the market than the fed, but that (the fed) is still firmly on the mind of investors. The longer this Syria business is strung out, the harder it's going to be for the market to gain any traction. I also think that's not lost on the fed, and it could be enough to keep them at "status quo" for the time being. Either way, I don't think we're looking at a massive pull back right now.
[sarcasm] Surprise! [/sarcasm] The fed postpones. On a better note, my favorite stock this year, McKesson (MCK) has been on a tear. Started the year at $97, closed today close to $132. I think there's still room left in it, and the first quarter of next year looks really good. Anyone having success with anything?
everything I own has done well this year, except of a couple of thou I have in inflation-linked bonds. Just treaded water there.
For Philfran and other re-balancers .... Suppose your intended allocation is 70% stocks and 30% bonds. And this year stocks have boomed so that your portfolio is now disproportionally stocks. Do you sell stocks now and buy bonds? Conventional wisdom says bonds won't do very well with impending rising interest rates.
If you're holding true to you allocation, then yes, you need to re-allocate. Remember, the first rule of investing (especially when it comes to re-balancing), is don't try to guess what the markets (in this case the bond market) will do. The philosophy is that the asset allocation is what drives returns, so don't get caught up in the individual asset classes.
Does anyone here trade foreign currency? I took 2 years training on a demo account and have been live about 6 months. Never had so much fun.
What's happening folks? Anyone having great success/bitter failure? I decided to sell to open some May put contracts on MCK today. Strike price is at $125 (with a nice $6.80 bid). I'm bullish on the stock anyway, so I figure the worst that happens is I acquire more at about $118. I should probably write more option contracts, but it's a very hard sell to most investors.
I'm with pphilfan. Laying low. I wanna see how the deficit battle affects the Stock market. Got some kala (cash) ready for the right time. 5-0
Randy Martin newsletter....he always has an interesting take and is reasonably accurate....I don't have any money with the guy but he still sends me a quarterly update... Hello, everyone. Hope you are well and at peace this early fall. This summer I vacationed in beautiful, cool, peaceful Maine and loved it. As always, I am following markets and staying on top of our rapidly-changing investment landscape. The purpose of this newsletter is to generate discussion and questions about this exciting subject in which we all have an interest. Societal and market trends have major implications for the investments we all make. Also, it puts in your hand a great tool to forward to your friends and relatives. If a friend is forwarding this to you and you want your own copy, just email me – your email address stays with me. It’s an honor to do business with all of you. Warm regards, Randy Sept. 27, 2013 Stocks have always moved roughly together around the world. Japan in the 1990s was an exception as its stocks collapsed while the rest of the world enjoyed a bull market. In this newsletter, we often use the S&P500 as a proxy for global stocks because it is 80% of US market capitalization, the US is the world’s largest market at 30% of global market cap, and our American readers relate well to it. Stocks disconnected from fundamentals months ago. Markets overshoot. Amateur investors felt the allure of easy profits and bought high in 2011-13 after the fabulous rally from the March 6, 2009 S&P500 bottom at 666, when we were buying Asian stocks as they sank. The Sept. 18, 2013 record-high S&P500 close at 1,726 may turn out to be the ultimate top before the third, final leg down of the long-term bear market that began March 2000. The decline will extend the US’s current deflationary economic winter in the synchronized global downturn we have fully anticipated. It will complete the inevitable cleansing of: • stock market excesses of March 2000, October 2007, and today; • belief in residential real estate as an investment. Housing entered a bear market after its 2005-06 bubble top and has recently rallied into a near bubble; and • Treasury bond, Federal Reserve, state/local government, and other debt excesses. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary “stimuli” are anti-growth. Real GDP growth is the slowest of any expansion since 1948 and was a paltry 1.6% in the four quarters through 13q2, even less than the 1.8% of the 2000s. The US has no easy way out of high/rising debt and faces a difficult choice. Austerity is coming either way: (1) politicians cut spending to stop debt growing more rapidly than GDP, an unlikely move that would bring a deep recession or (2) the bond market stops buying Treasuries about 2015-17 (estimate subject to revision) bringing big spending cuts. Many investors accept that, on current trends, a fiscal crisis is inevitable but expect its arrival way out in the 2030s. They are concerned about their kids but the crowd has never gotten it right and their own lives will be altered in the coming unsettled period that will not be good for stocks or bonds. Jim Rogers’ excellent 2013 Street Smarts agrees on page 138. Discussing US debt, he says: “Sometime in this decade the whole system is going to collapse.” That would be by the end of 2019, in just 6.3 years – at the latest. The 10-year Treasury interest rate is 2.7%, up from its 1.4% low in July 2012. A rise to about 5% would signal that the US has entered a classic debt spiral. The inability to sell new Treasury bonds would then likely arrive within two years because the average maturity of Treasury debt is just 5 years. The market would cut excess federal spending by about 30% to equal revenues. “Inflating our way out” is no solution. Argentina and Weimar Germany suffered. You can’t inflate your way out of short-term debt – rates rise with inflation. Money printing has never led to prosperity, always to difficult times, and the world has never experienced coordinated money printing on the current scale. The Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Federal Reserve are printing “unlimited” amounts. The Fed recently said it will scale back but its $85b a month bond buying continues. The US economy is like a drunk on a binge – the more alcohol consumed, the worse the hangover.
Is it time to buy/ I am guessing when the debt limit resolution is reached the market will react positively... And the limit will get resolved...
Did I turn you on to Randy? We were suppose to meet up in Maine but I ended up climbing a mountain instead. He stays about 5 miles from where I go in Maine. We correspond sometimes and we both have interest in France and Maine.
