Report to link global warming to humans
POSTED: 1:39 p.m. EST, February 1, 2007
Story Highlights• Climate experts putting final touches on global warming report
• Panel says it is "very likely" that climate change is caused by humans
• Report could influence government and business policy worldwide
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PARIS, France (AP) -- Officials from 113 countries agreed Thursday that a much-awaited international report will say that global warming was "very likely" caused by human activity, delegates to a climate change conference said.
Dozens of scientists and bureaucrats are editing the new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in closed-door meetings in Paris.
Their report, which must be unanimously approved, is to be released Friday and is considered an authoritative document that could influence government and industrial policy worldwide.
Four participants told The Associated Press that the group approved the term "very likely" in Thursday's sessions. That means they agree that there is a 90 percent chance that global warming is caused by humans.
"That is a big move. I hope it is a powerful statement," said Jan Pretel, head of the department of climate change at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.
"I hope that policymakers will be quite convinced by this message," said Riibeta Abeta, a delegate from the island nation of Kiribati, which is worried about being overrun by rising seas. "The purpose is to get them moving."
The last report, in 2001, said global warming was "likely" caused by human activity. There had been speculation that the participants might try to change the wording this time to "virtually certain," which means a 99 percent chance. (Watch climate experts talk about our planet's grim future )
But the Chinese delegation was resistant to strong wording on global warming, said Barbados delegate Leonard Fields and Zimbabwe delegate Washington Zhakata.
China has increasingly turned to fossil fuels, which emit the greenhouse gases blamed for boosting the planet's temperature, to feed its huge and growing energy needs.
Delegates said the Chinese won the removal of the official definition of "very likely" from the text -- although scientists are not changing the definition.
The group also won approval for a footnote qualifying the "very likely" wording by suggesting it could change in the future: "Consideration of remaining uncertainties is based on current methodology."
The U.S. government delegation was not one of the more vocal groups in the debate over the "very likely" statement for man-made warming, said other countries' officials. Several delegates credited the head of the panel session, Susan Solomon, a top U.S. government climate scientist, with pushing through the agreement in just 90 minutes.
U.S. President George W. Bush acknowledged for the first time last month that global warming is occurring, but he remains opposed to mandatory regulations to cap greenhouse gas emissions that many nations favor.
The report will also say that global warming has led to stronger hurricanes, including those on the Atlantic Ocean such as 2005's Katrina, said Fields and other delegates. (Watch a preview of the report )
The panel did note that the increase in stronger storms differs in various parts of the globe, but that the storms that strike the Americas are global warming-influenced.
In 2001, the same panel had said there was not enough evidence to make such a conclusion.
This week's report will also mark a departure from a November 2006 statement by the World Meteorological Organization, which helped found the IPCC. The meteorological organization, after contentious debate, said it could not link past stronger storms to global warming.
Fields -- of Barbados, a country in the path of many hurricanes -- said the new wording was "very important. ... Insurance companies watch the language too."
The delegates, staring at a countdown clock showing how little time they have left before Friday's deadline, went into Thursday's talks well behind schedule and planned a late-night session.
A draft of the report predicts a temperature increase of between 1.5-5.8 Celsius (2.5-10.4 Fahrenheit) by the year 2100, though that could be adjusted. 
Another contentious issue is predictions of sea level rise. Scientists are trying to incorporate concerns that their early drafts underestimate how much the sea level will rise by 2100 because they cannot predict how much ice will melt from Greenland and Antarctica.
In early drafts, scientists predicted a sea level rise of no more than 58 centimeters (23 inches) by 2100, but that does not include the ice sheet melts.
The report is being edited in English, then must be translated into five other languages. It will be a 12- to 15-page summary for policymakers in most of the world's countries. (Watch what would happen to San Francisco if sea levels rose 3 feet )
As the delegates hold their evening session, the Eiffel Tower, other Paris monuments and concerned citizens in several European countries were expected to switch off their lights for five minutes to call attention to energy conservation, heeding a call by French environmental campaigners.
Some experts said that while well-intentioned, the lights-out could actually consume more energy than it would conserve by requiring a power spike when the lights turn back on -- possibly causing brownouts or even blackouts.
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Originally Posted by Mike Rich
