Here's my (umm... ...educated...) guess:
1. Oklahoma City will NOT have NBA hoops during the 2007-2008 season. Sorry to disappoint. Don't despair though, NBA hoops are a sure thing, and long term, in OKC.
2. OKC will very likely have NBA hoops in 2008-2009.
3. OKC will almost assuredly have NBA hoops in 2009-2010.
4. OKC will without question have NBA hoops in 2010-2011.
Sorry to hedge so much. If I'm betting, I'm going with 2008-2009.
There are actually several scenarios that could play out, but at the end of the day, all of them include a team in OKC, and all of them include Clay Bennett and his group as the owners of the OKC franchise.
But prepare yourselves now: we will be without an NBA team in 2007-2008. Sorry, it's killing me maybe worse than anyone who reads this, but it's true.
Here's the dealio:
Clay Bennett wasn't kidding when he said he and his ownership group were going to give their best effort at creating a viable situation in Seattle. Does that mean he's going to make it easy for them? No. However, the new owner group is going to work hard to get Seattle, and/or the state of Washington, to build a new arena and strike a favorable lease. There is actually a better chance of that happening than the media gives credit to. Don't be totally surprised if it happens. If it does, you can kiss the Sonics franchise goodbye. That said, they are going to be very tough negotiators. Don't expect Seattle and Washington to get off easy. They are going to have to pay to play.
If they don't, expect the Supersonics to be here in the fall of 2008. Why not 2007? Well, Clay gave Seattle 12 months to perform, putting something in place to build a new arena specifically. But remember, the deal doesn't close until October. Therefore, the city and state have until next October, or one month before the season starts, to put something together. Sorry, but if they don't do it, it will still be too late to move the team here for the '07-'08 season. If Seattle doesn't build an arena, the Sonics will play at least one season as a lame duck.
Now, their lease actually keeps them bound through '10. However, the lease can probably have holes punched in it. It is AWFUL, as David Stern has said time and again. If an arena deal absolutely fails, Seattle would probably also prefer not to have several seasons of lame duck ball played to empty arenas. A buyout deal could probably be reached easily. The sonics pay, based on the lease I read the other night, somewhere between $1.2 and $1.5 million per year in rent. Likely, they could multiply the seasons they want to buy out by that number. Not a steep hill for someone who just paid $350 mil for a team, and who expects to see profits in OKC of several million per year, based on the recent Hornets experience.
Speaking of the Hornets, what about them? Well, they're going back to NOLA. Next year. Whether NOLA is ready or not. And, it's probably not.
But get ready folks, the Hornets are leaving. You can kiss Chris Paul, Desmond, D. West, Peja and the boys goodbye. Enjoy this next season, cheer like they will be here forever, but remember they won't. At least for now.
Because George Shinn has ****ed off too many people. David Stern is one of those people, and the last person you want to **** of as an NBA owner is David Stern. So Stern is going to "allow" (read: force) Shinn to go back to NOLA next season. The same NOLA that hosted the worst-attended team in the league, BEFORE Katrina. The same NOLA that had very little corporate base for its NBA team BEFORE Katrina. The same NOLA where state officials bought Hornets tickets (with taxpayer dollars) and desperately passed them out to passersby, many of whom couldn't care less, to fill the house during the Hornets' games in the Big Easy last season, just so they could look good. The same NOLA where miles and miles of city still don't have electricity, where schools are closed, where they are still finding Katrina victims dead in houses, nearly a year later.
The Hornets were going broke before Katrina, and unfortunately they will almost assuredly go broke upon their return. Within three years, two years, or maybe even one year. What can Shinn do about that? Well considering the NBA board of governors has final say over whether or not he moves the team again, or who he sells the team to, precious little.
Basically, if NOLA can't support the team (and it's not very likely), he goes broke. And ultimately, has to sell. And if OKC doesn't have an NBA franchise in place, that is, if Seattle has put the wheels in motion to built an arena and has worked to retain the Sonics, who do you think his best bet is to sell to? That's right, an owner in a city where the team still has some value. Oklahoma City. And who might that owner be? An ownership group led by none other than Clay Bennett and Aubrey McClendon.
At this point, I haven't completely defined my (educated) guess, but I guess it's possible George Shinn would be offered a trade for the Supersonics. Not a bad deal for him, as they would in this scenario be stabilized, with a new arena. But I guess it's possible that he could be frozen out totally. I guess it depends on how bad he ****es people off between now and then.
But get ready to bump this thread next year when it looks like OKC won't have a team at all. Hopefully my theories will make you feel a little bit better about the situation. Tust me, it's going to look that way at some point. This is going to be a bit of a roller coaster ride. I would bet money on OKC not having a team during the 2007-2008 season. But after that, there are several things that could happen, and all of them ultimately bring the NBA hoop back to our fair city.
Originally Posted by yermom
