Big 12 Football: Who Is the Ultimate Dark Horse for 2015?

[milesl]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...horse-for-2015


The Big 12 could have the most intriguing dark-horse candidate for the conference title in 2015: the Oklahoma Sooners. If for no other reason, the Sooners aren't used to being in this position.

Consider first that Oklahoma has won eight Big 12 titles under head coach Bob Stoops, the most recent of which came in 2012, when the Sooners shared the conference trophy with the Kansas State Wildcats. Only four times in Stoops' 16 years as a head coach has OU finished with fewer than 10 wins.

One of those four times came last year, when OU lost four of its last seven games to finish 8-5. The 40-6 blowout at the hands of the Clemson Tigers, which didn't even have starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, in the Russell Athletic Bowl was the period on a massively disappointing season.

OU, after all, was hyped as an early College Football Playoff front-runner.

But as athletic director Joe Castiglione told Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports in April, the bowl loss wasn't just a loss on the scoreboard—it was a true low point for the program:

"The struggles we had last year were confounding, but the outcome of the bowl game was something we've never experienced before. I'm not talking about the score. I'm talking about the way the game evolved. Just the feel of that game, I can't say I've seen that before in all the years we've been together. It just didn't look like Oklahoma."

Suffice to say, expectations are dramatically more tempered this time around, which is why the Sooners are perfect dark-horse candidates.

There's a case to be made for Oklahoma's OU-OSU rival, Oklahoma State, as a dark horse as well. The Cowboys return 17 starters from last year's team and finally seem to have found a steady quarterback in Mason Rudolph.

There's some buzz around the Cowboys for sure, but the Sooners make for an interesting option behind runaway Big 12 favorites Baylor and TCU.

Let's go back to Oklahoma's 8-5 record from a year ago. As mentioned above, dipping under 10 wins in a season isn't something Stoops has done often during his time in Norman. In fact, in the years following a seven- or eight-win season, the Sooners are 13-0 (2000), 11-3 (2006) and 12-2 (2010).

In each one of those years, Oklahoma won the Big 12 title.

But past success isn't always indicative of the future, right?

That's true, but understand this about Stoops: He's only two years removed from arguably his best coaching job ever at Oklahoma—2013, when the Sooners won 11 games and surprised Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. He's taken teams that weren't the best talent-wise and squeezed double-digit-win seasons out of them.

Additionally, last year's disappointment finally paved way to something Sooners fans have been demanding for a while: a much-needed staff shake-up.

Gone are co-offensive coordinators Josh Heupel and Jay Norvell. In is former East Carolina offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley. It wasn't an easy decision for Stoops, who was tremendously loyal to Heupel and Norvell, but it was likely the right one in the end.

In all, there are four new assistants for Oklahoma in 2015 who have come from places like Stanford (defensive line coach Diron Reynolds), Notre Dame (defensive backs coach Kerry Cooks) and Washington State (outside receivers coach Dennis Simmons). Those assistants have worked for David Shaw, Brian Kelly and Mike Leach, respectively.

Those are some fine resumes for coaches who hope to inject some new energy into the program.

Sometimes, that's just what a team needs, especially when the head coach has been around for the better part of two decades. That kind of tenure doesn't happen much anymore in college football.

Mandel's key point in his April column was an accurate one: If Oklahoma flops again, it's on Stoops. But, certainly, you can't say he isn't trying. There's talent on the roster—it's more of a matter of development and finishing. Recall that three of Oklahoma's five losses came by a combined eight points.

Already, some key areas look improved.

Last season, Oklahoma's wide receiver group was made up of Sterling Shepard and, well, that's about it. If the spring game was any indication, Shepard will have help from redshirt freshman tight end Mark Andrews and junior college transfer wide receiver Dede Westbrook.

Both of those players were named potential breakout newcomers by Ryan Gerbosi of the Dallas Morning News.



The running back depth chart is loaded with Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon and Alex Ross. Defensively, pass-rushers Charles Tapper and Eric Striker return, along with key linebackers Jordan Evans and Dominique Alexander.

There are concerns, to be sure. What would a dark horse be if it were perfect?

The defensive secondary is young and lacks depth, and the quarterback question hasn't been answered yet. Will Trevor Knight win the job for the third year in a row, or will it be Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield?

Whoever wins the quarterback job, the opportunity is there to get off to a hot start. It's entirely possible that Oklahoma enters mid-November undefeated. An early-season road game at Tennessee will be a huge test to see if there's been any improvement from last season.

Oklahoma's final three games are at Baylor (Nov. 14), versus TCU (Nov. 21) and at Oklahoma State (Nov. 28).

By then, we should find out if the Sooners have enough confidence, momentum and chemistry to push through that final stretch—or whether they're still a tier behind the Big 12's best.

Oklahoma has serious questions to answer—there's no doubt about that.

Can Riley make an immediate impact with the new offense in his first year? Can the defense go from good to great under Stoops' brother, Mike Stoops? Can the program stop being outclassed by Baylor? The Bears have won the past two meetings by an average score of 45-13.

But Stoops has earned the chance to answer those questions, and history indicates he'll be able to do so. Will Oklahoma win a ninth Big 12 title this year? Baylor and TCU are awfully good—playoff-bound, perhaps. There's a reason for that.

Still, the Sooners should be able to improve on last year's effort if the roster talent meets development. The outcome of the season could come down to a game or two in November.



Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.

[badger]

Darkhorses never win it all, do they? Sure, they'll win when they're not supposed to and that's why they're the darkhorse

Fortunately, our schooner is led by lighthorses