Originally Posted by
Eielson
Really? The one I'd heard came up with some statistics to justify it. In HS you kick off from the 40, so if you onside it, it should cross midfield. HS kickers aren't often that good, so they don't kick it as far or high, so the returning team often gets good field position anyway. I'm just making up numbers here, but he said that they only recover 1 out of every 5 onside kicks, but since the average starting field position in HS football is the 35 yard line, and it's the 47 with his onside kicks, the occasional recovery offsets that yardage based on probability.
As for punting, he talked about the numbers for going for it on 4th and 5 from your own 8 yard line (again...still making up numbers). If you go for it, and don't convert, there is a 88% chance the opposing team scores. However, if you punt it, the net yardage gained on average is about 25 yards when factoring in returns and everything else. The odds of scoring from the 33 only drop to 74%. Meanwhile, the odds of converting that 4th down and avoiding this situation all together are 45%. He was essentially saying that, yes, you're handing the other team points if you don't convert, but they're probably going to score either way, so you might as well go for it.
Maybe he came up with all this after the fact, though, as a way of justifying. Or maybe we're all talking about completely different people. There are a lot of HS coaches across the country, so I suppose a lot of wacky stuff happens.