Sure, that's all based on what we know now, but things always happen. MSU would have made the 4 teams last season after an early season loss to ND. The Ducks are more respected right now than ND was last season and it was a road game for MSU. It will look like a quality loss at the end of the season when all the other conferences are shaking out. And you never know, this could be like the '07 season where there were no undefeateds and only 1 one-loss team. ND could knock off FSU and then lose a couple. The SEC could finally knock each other off like they claim (but never happens). The pac12 often does knock each other off like they did last year. Then there are upsets, injuries, weather, bad calls, etc. that generally create chaos. I'm not putting any money on MSU, but if they win out, they will slowly rise up the rankings and would just need some help. Having 4 slots keeps hope alive.