1. OK, I’ve skimmed through the 21 pages of the Santorum anti-birth control thread and it appears the big issue driving his suggestion was never discussed: the Demographic Winter.
As our birthrate continues to gradually decline, we must consider the economic consequences. In a vacuum, there may be nothing wrong with a declining birthrate. But with a 12 trillion dollar federal debt to service, with the large baby boomer population moving to suck huge amounts from social security and medicare, and with state and local gov’t facing huge unfunded public employee pensions to pay out – the only way to avoid an austerity winter beyond all winters is to grow our way out of it. The big money transfer is NOT to poor people, but to old people. So merely cutting welfare checks and food stamps won’t solve it.
Santorum wants the gov’t to encourage large families. Triple the child tax credit from $1000/child to $3000/child, he says.
... And then his crazy notion of banning birth control.
There’s been lots of looking at Europe and talking about how we are looking at our future if we don’t get our **** together.
Consider Greece. For every 100 grandparents there are 42 grandchildren. And Greeks think they all deserve to retire at age 55 (just like our public employees). Are the 42 Greek grandchildren going to be able to support the pensions and healthcare of 100 grandparents? Even if they had a strong work ethic, it’s doubtful.
Now, worker productivity can make up for a lot. Fewer people can give more output. But you still need customers. Instead of 100 babies needing diapers, there are only 42 babies. Instead of 100 teens buying ipods and junk food at the mall, there are only 42. And when they are young adults, far fewer homes needing to be purchased. And fewer window coverings for the homes, fewer appliances, fewer insurance policies, etc etc etc.
Germany, France, and other European countries aren’t in this bind quite as bad because they’ve imported lots of Muslims. Lots of transformational changes as a result, which will not make it easy.
So, if looking at Europe is looking at our future, how can we avoid a demographic winter?
Rick Santorum says, “Let’s have gov’t encourage big families!” But too many folks have come to understand that lots of kids costs lots of money and can make you poor, even with a tax credit. And yeah, if you have lots of kids, maybe they'll take care of you personally in your old age, but more likely it will be Jaunita from Guatemala who is feeding you mashed potatoes and giving you a sponge bath when you're in your 80s, not to mention paying the FICA taxes that are transferred to you.
Even in Mexico, we have seen a drop in the birthrate from 6.8 children/woman in 1970 to 2 children/woman today. Santorum may not ignore the Pope on birth control, but more and more Mexican women are. And so do most U.S. women.
The evangelicals and the libertarians of the Republican Party seem to be the only ones who understand that immigration will be part of the solution. We need future customers and we need a productive labor force that can compete for export dollars. There needs to be a mixture of high skilled immigrants for innovation, investments, and high-skilled labor and lower-skilled immigrants for cost efficient labor. Cost efficient labor frees up capital for expansion and the creation of higher skilled jobs.
With the huge drop in birthrates in Mexico, much fewer immigrants will come from Mexico down the road in 15 or 20 years, with more coming from other Latin American countries and Asia.
Originally Posted by SanJoaquinSooner
