USA Soccer

[tommieharris91]

when will we know what pool we are in for this summer?

Early December.

[Scott D]

yeah, they have to wait for the play-in's to be completed.

[tommieharris91]

I saw this write-up on another board and figured I should share it here.

A Team USA fan guide to the World Cup playoffs and seeding:

Starting tonight and ending Wednesday, the last of the World Cup qualifying matches will be played, and the field of 32 teams will be filled out. Here's a brief primer of what's on tap, and who to root for as a USA fan to get the best-case placement scenario for them. I'm going to list each squad's SPI rating to give a general idea of how strong each squad is.

For the World Cup Finals, FIFA arranges the 32 squads into 8 groups of 4. They use a method to spread squads out geographically as much as possible. Other than Europe, no 2 squads from the same continent can be in the same group (there are 13 European squads, so 5 groups will have 2 European squads). Squads are split into 4 pods according to geography, with a pod for the seeded squads and the host.

Seeded squads

• Seeding is determined by a combination of a squad's World FIFA rating and their performance in the prior two World Cup Finals.
• The host squad will always be one of the 8 seeds. This World Cup, that is #65 South Africa.
• Of the remaining seven seeds, six are already clinched for qualified teams: #1 Brazil, #2 Spain, #3 England, #5 Argentina, #6 Germany and #12 Italy.
• #14 USA is not going to get the last seed. That will go to one of three European squads: #7 Portugal, who would have to win a playoff against #29 Bosnia-Herzegovina to qualify, #9 France, who would have to win a playoff against #38 Ireland to advance, or #4 Holland, who has already qualified but is behind the others.
• If both #7 Portugal and #9 France, the squad that gets the last seed will come down to the final FIFA November ranking. Portugal would need to finish 5 spots ahead of France in the FIFA rankings to get the last seed.

Europe

• Since five seeds will be European squads, the remaining 8 squads in Europe will form a second pod.
• Nine European squads have already clinched qualification: #2 Spain, #3 England, #4 Holland, #6 Germany, #12 Italy, #15 Serbia, #21 Denmark, #33 Switzerland and #50 Slovakia.
• The remaining four spots will be decided by four two-leg playoffs played Saturday and Wednesday: #7 Portugal v. #29 Bosnia-Herzegovina, #9 France v. #38 Ireland, #13 Russia v. #40 Slovenia, and #37 Greece v. #20 Ukraine.
• Despite #37 Greece having a lower SPI than #20 Ukraine, they have the home field advantage for the second leg due to a higher FIFA ranking.

Africa

• Besides #65 South Africa, five other African squads qualify for the World Cup finals.
• Two squads have already clinched a spot with a match yet to be played Saturday: #11 Ivory Coast and #32 Ghana
• One spot will go to the winner of Group A. With one match to play Saturday, #16 Cameroon has 10 points, while #54 Gabon has 9 points. Cameroon visits Morocco while Gabon visits Togo.
• One spot will go to the winner of Group B. With one match to play Saturday, #41 Tunisia has 11 points, while #27 Nigeria has 9 points. Tunisia visits Mozambique while Nigeria visits Kenya.
• The final spot will go to the winner of Group C. #45 Algeria leads the group with 13 points, while #30 Egypt has 10 points. Algeria visits Egypt Saturday, with Egypt needing to win by 2 goals to force a tiebreaker, or 3 goals to qualify outright.

Asia and Oceania

• Four squads have qualified for the World Cup finals out of Asia: #24 Australia, #35 Japan, #43 South Korea and #89 North Korea.
• One additional spot will go to the winner of the playoff between #86 Bahrain and #90 New Zealand. The first leg of the playoff finished 0-0 at Bahrain. The second leg at New Zealand is Saturday at 2:00 AM ET.
• As Australia counts as an Asian squad, New Zealand counts as an Oceanic squad. Therefore, if Bahrain wins, there are 5 Asian squads, while if New Zealand wins, there are 4 Asian squads and an Oceanic squad. This is significant for the purpose of pod selection, as potentially New Zealand could be placed with an Asian squad if they qualify.

South and North America

• Four squads have qualified from South America: #1 Brazil, #5 Argentina, #8 Chile and #17 Paraguay.
• Three squads have qualified from North America: #14 USA, #18 Mexico and #22 Honduras.
• One final spot will go to the winner of the playoff between #10 Uruguay and #36 Costa Rica, played Saturday and Wednesday.
• South America has two seeded squads, and either two or three unseeded squads. North America has three or four unseeded squads.

Pod Selection

• As mentioned earlier, Pod A will be the eight seeds: #1 Brazil, #2 Spain, #3 England, #5 Argentina, #6 Germany, #12 Italy, #65 South Africa, and #7 Portugal/#9 France/#4 Holland.
• Pod B will be the eight unseeded European squads. Six will be #15 Serbia, #21 Denmark, #33 Switzerland, #50 Slovakia, the #13 Russia/#40 Slovenia winner, and the #37 Greece/#20 Ukraine winner. The remaining two will be the two unseeded squads of #4 Holland, the #7 Portugal/#29 Bosnia winner, and the #9 France/#38 Ireland winner.
• The remaining two pods will be combinations of federations, determined among 5 African squads, 4 or 5 Asian squads, 0 or 1 Oceanic squads, 2 or 3 South American squads, and 3 or 4 North American squads.

Playoff possibilities

• Favorites prevail: #86 Bahrain and #10 Uruguay qualify. This results in 3 North and South American squads, and 5 African and Asian squads. For competitive balance, South America and Africa are generally considered at a higher level than North America and Asia, respectively, so FIFA will likely put South America and Africa in Pod C, with North America and Asia in Pod D.
• #10 Uruguay and #90 New Zealand qualify. This results in 3 North and South American squads, 5 African squads, 4 Asian squads and one Oceanic squad. FIFA again puts the strong African and South American squads in one pod, with the relatively weaker North American, Asian and Oceanic squads filling the other pod.
• #36 Costa Rica and #90 New Zealand qualify. This results in 5 African squads, 4 North American and Asian squads, 2 South American squad and an Oceanic squad. FIFA's likely action will be to pair North America and Asia since the numbers work out, with Africa, South America and Oceania in the other pod.
• #36 Costa Rica and #86 Bahrain qualify. This results in 5 African and Asian squads, 4 North American squads and 2 South American squads. This is the worst case scenario for FIFA, as they'll have to split a confederation into two pods, but likely the best case scenario for the #14 USA.
• Why the last scenario? Reason being that without a clean geographical split, FIFA will likely have to divide by a talent split, pairing Africa and South America to make 7 squads in a pod, with North America and Asia making 9 in the other pod. To even out the numbers and maintain competitive balance, FIFA may choose to pull the highest ranked team from the Asia/North America pod, that being the #14 USA, and put it in the Africa/South America pod.
• If that happens, this is the good news: #14 USA can't be grouped with another North American team, meaning they'll get a weaker Asian team in their group. Also, paired with the African squads that can't be in #65 South Africa's group, they'll have a 33% chance of landing in South Africa's group as well.

So, to recap:

• Worst-case group scenarios for the USA: #1 Brazil, #4 Holland, #11 Ivory Coast, #14 USA or #2 Spain, #4 Holland, #8 Chile, #14 USA.
• Best-case group scenario for the USA: #14 USA, #50 Slovakia, #65 South Africa, #89 North Korea

So, go Bahrain, Costa Rica, Ireland and Bosnia!

[JLEW1818]

thanks for that

hope we can pull some bad teams

[Scott D]

god in that worst case scenario group that's a USA squad that I would guarantee would do no better than 0-2-1.

[silverwheels]

I bet we'll get one of the toughest groups again. That's just what happens.

[tommieharris91]

US lost 1-0 today.

[tommieharris91]

New Zealand qualified.
Uruguay won 1-0 at Costa Rica.
France won 1-0 at Ireland.
Portugal won 1-0 at home.

The chances of the USA getting into a group of death went much higher.

[KC//CRIMSON]

Gold!

[silverwheels]

Greece, Slovenia, Portugal, and France* are through, with Uruguay probably qualifying later tonight.


*France scored on a handball, so hopefully Ireland requests a replay.

[tommieharris91]

Ohh, and we lost 3-1 and our defense looked ugly in all 3 goals.

[silverwheels]

Denmark is good, but we shouldn't have lost to them that badly. Sucks not having Gooch and Charlie.


Uruguay advanced over the Ticos 2-1 on aggregate to round off the list of teams heading to South Africa next summer.


North America:
United States
Mexico
Honduras

South America:
Brazil
Paraguay
Argentina
Chile
Uruguay

Africa:
South Africa
Algeria (won playoff over Egypt, 1-0)
Ivory Coast
Cameroon
Ghana
Nigeria

Europe:
Germany
Netherlands
England
Spain
Slovakia
Italy
Portugal
Denmark
Greece
France
Slovenia
Bosnia
Switzerland

Asia/Oceania:
Japan
North Korea
South Korea
Australia
New Zealand


Hopefully CONCACAF gets grouped in with the African teams in one pot. That would help us out tremendously.

[tommieharris91]

The pots for Friday's World Cup draw:

Pot 1 : Brazil, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Argentina, England and South Africa.

Pot 2 : Australia, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Honduras, Mexico, USA and New Zealand

Pot 3 : Algeria, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay

Pot 4 : Denmark, France, Greece, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland

[Scott D]

Something I saw on Sky Sports News gave an interesting scenario.

They said the worst possible draw for England would be

England, USA, Cameroon, Portugal

[JLEW1818]

so explain this drawing process...

[Scott D]

four boxes, each have the teams allotted to each section

they pull a team out of each box for the groups.

[JLEW1818]

so we will know our pool on Friday?

[tommieharris91]

Something I saw on Sky Sports News gave an interesting scenario.

They said the worst possible draw for England would be

England, USA, Cameroon, Portugal

Replace Ivory Coast with Cameroon and you've got it. That would be a bad draw for us, too.

so we will know our pool on Friday?

Yes. The draw is on ESPN2 at 11:00am Central.

[Scott D]

Replace Ivory Coast with Cameroon and you've got it. That would be a bad draw for us, too.



Yes. I think the draw is on ESPN2 at 11:30am Central.

*shrug* the Brits seem to be more afraid of Cameroon than the Ivory Coast.

[silverwheels]

Best case for us would be South Africa, Uruguay, and Slovenia.

I bet we'll get Brazil, Cote D'Ivoire, and Portugal, though.