Oklahoma City Thunder, you are on the clock...

[the_ouskull]

...and Blake Griffin is off of it. NOW who do you want to see us take, and why? No trades, no swapping picks. Let's say that OKC is drafting #2, and the team that went #1 took Blake, and no GM's will answer their phones when you call, 'cause they don't know you.

Go!

the_ouskull

[soonervegas]

Thabeet. I know he has very limited offensive potential skills, but I wouldn't mind a 7-3 shot blocker in the middle. We have enough scoring to win 30 plus games, but our D still lacks NBA level intensity. Maybe 4-5 blocks per game would help in that department.

Maybe Jordan Hill. I poor man's Blake Griffin?

[theresonly1OU]

I trade down for either an established center, or more picks.

The last thing we need is another unproven 7 footer sitting on our bench.

[the_ouskull]

Please read the original post. Thanks.

the_ouskull

[starclassic tama]

i wouldn't exactly call thabeet unproven. he is at the NBA level of course, but his college credentials are pretty solid. i would either want him or james harden due to this year's weak draft. harden will probably be a threat to go for 20 on any given night, and that's never a bad thing to have at the 2.

[theresonly1OU]

Please read the original post. Thanks.

the_ouskull

My bad.

I would say Maynor or Lawson; if I'm not trading Westbrook for a chance at Griffin, the next best scenario in my opinion is to get a really good PG and move Westbrook to the 2.

The way Lawson creates off the dribble would be an amazing compliment to JG and KD's game, and the two-headed dragon of Lawson and Westbrook being able to slash and dish would be formidible for any opponent.

That being said, I still want Griffin.

[Jello Biafra]

id say lawson or curry....both lightning quick and both have jump shots and we saw both of them last year. we know what they can do.

[the_ouskull]

Against the Oklahoma City Thunder and our top 20 lineups (statically), teams shot the ball in our basket area 41% of the time. By the same token, we only had three of our top 20 lineups that shot the ball in our opponent's basket area more than 41% of the time...

Watson, Westbrook, Durant, Green, and Collison shot the ball in the opponents basket area 49% of the time. This lineup also has our highest rebound rate, at 55%. (Meaning that we clean up 55% of the rebounds that become available when this lineup is on the floor together.)

Westbrook is at the '2' in this lineup, which, while a "small" lineup, ironically, allows opponents to shoot the ball in the basket area only 38% of the time. One of our top 20 units' best percentages. (Only three of our top 20 units have better percentage, and one of them replaces Durant with Kyle Weaver.)

Our STARTING unit, Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant, Green, and Krstic; on the other hand, only shot the ball in the basket area 32% of the time, relying on jumpers too often. They also sport a rebound rate of 48.5%, the fifth-lowest of the Top 20 units, and they allow opponents an adjusted (for three point and free throw percentage) shooting percentage of 55.1%. Teams make more shots against us than they miss, our starters don't rebound particularly well, and we settle for too many jumpers.

All of those signs point to Thabeet.

Man, I just don't feel comfortable with that pick at all. Sure, he's a nice college player, but I just don't see his game translating well. I think the peak of his potential is Dikembe Mutumbo, and I don't think that he's going to hit that peak until after his rookie deal is up - if ever...

So, back to the drawing board...

If statistically, we have one of our best lineups in Watson, Westbrook, Durant, Green, and Collison, then we're replacing a 1 or a 5. (And, honestly, Collison's a 4. EVERYBODY knows it, he's only 6'8"ish for God's sake.)

If we're looking for a 1, then we have to consider the following players:

- Ricky Rubio. He's 6'4", can handle, shoot, and plays very up-tempo. He's also been playing professionally since he was 14. He's not old hat to the whole "going against bigger, stronger, faster players" thing. He would be another exciting young player.

- Brandon Jennings. Yeah, I know his Italian stats suck. I also know that he's only shot 19% from the arc over there. But, our scouts and player development people will know the whole story before they consider drafting him. If they like his game, it'll be because he can play, not because someone SAID he can play. He's super-athletic, and we'd really be able to get out and run the sh*t out of teams with either him or Rubio at the point... After these two, it gets a little shaky...

- Stephen Curry. The kid can shoot. No doubt about it. And, frankly, we need some consistent outside shooting. But, he doesn't really help our point guard problem, other than by being short and asking to hold the ball a lot. He's not really a good ball-handler though, and defensively, there are still question marks about his athleticism being up to NBA snuff.

- Eric Maynor. Mirroring one of Curry's question marks, level of competition is a concern with Maynor. Also, at 175 pounds, will he be able to hold up for an entire 82 games?

Actually, except for Curry's shooting, and Maynor's handle, I could pretty much type the same paragraph for both of them. Weird, 'cause I don't think of them as being a great deal alike.

-----

Of the four of them, I'm looking at Maynor, then Rubio, in that order. But, with the number 2 pick, Maynor is too high. Rubio wins the "we need a point guard" battle.

-----

Thabeet wins the "we need a center" battle, but loses the "I don't trust Thabeet" battle in a landslide. So, the search continues...

-----

Seeing as there aren't a lot of center prospects in this year's draft, with Thabeet and B.J. Mullens being the only two "legit" centers, we, sadly, have to give consideration to some power forwards as well. I'll eliminate them in short order, allowing you, the reader, to view it like an injury report:

- Jordan Hill: out indefinitely, height
- James Johnson: out indefinitely, mental maturity
- Patrick Patterson: out indefinitely, skills
- Josh Heytvelt, Cole Aldridge, Tyler Hansbrough: out indefinitely, white (one GM said of Psycho T, "What can I do with an undersized power forward who isn't athletic and doesn't rebound?")
- Dejuan Blair: out indefinitely, *ss and lungs
- B.J. Mullens: out indefinitely, brain
- Jarvis Varnado: out indefinitely, A.C. Green (can't score)
- Ed Davis: out indefinitely, diaper rash

To say the least, this isn't a terribly strong crop of big men. I think that, if we're trying to win right away, we need to consider someone like Blair, but, he would keep us undersized, even more so than with Collison, and we would be even less able to run the floor.

But, since Westbrook is going to need at least another year to develop into a "run-the-team" point guard, which is what this team needs him to be; a stop-me, and I'll give it up for an even easier shot" athletic point guard, we could look at taking someone else...

Thabeet, as much as I hate to say it, has the best short-term potential. I don't think that this year, or even next year, he'll be any kind of dominant... but I think that he can carve out a niche, as long as he can stay healthy, as a rebounder who can change the game around the basket, defensively. As long as he learns to play in front of his man, and can put on some muscle, he can be a good player within a couple of years... a 10/10 guy who will block 3+ per game, and shoot a high percentage - but also understands his limitations offensively and doesn't force anything, therefore limiting his turnovers.

But, I think that that's also (roughly) his ceiling. So, we consider B.J. Mullens. He's even more limited than Thabeet... currently... but if you're drafting someone like Mullens, you're just hoping that he shows you signs of why you drafted him before his rookie contract runs out. If he doesn't, you don't renew until he hits restricted free agency, and only then if you think he's improved enough to justify it. If he does, then you re-up him before his rookie contract runs out (or sign him upfront to an option year) and cut his *ss if necessary...

If you take Mullens, expect him to be livin' on Tulsa time for a great deal of his early seasons... if you take Thabeet, you're risking injury and praying for an upside that likely just isn't there.

One more choice is Ed Davis. As with Thabeet and Mullens, you're drafting him on potential, but, unlike Mullens, he has the potential to be good before his rookie contract expires. Sadly, Davis decided not to test the waters this year... which is a shame, 'cause I'd be more than okay with us taking him at #2.

-----

And, patrolling the paint for your Oklahoma City Thunder, at center, from the University of Connecticut, Ha-SHEEM Tha-BEEEEEEEEET.

Yeah, I'm already afraid... but, it makes the most sense.

I hope, for once, we go against sense and take Rubio, and start playing small ball. It'll sell more tickets, make for a crazier home environment, and play to the strengths of our young, athletic team... but I think that we'll take Thabeet.
-----

Point Guard: Rubio
Post: Thabeet.

-----

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 NBA draft...

Scary.

the_ouskull

[starclassic tama]

so i take it you don't think very highly of harden since you didn't mention him at all in your post. he had a horrific NCAA tournament, but i think he still has a lot of skills. he's not undersized at 6'6 and could give us some scoring at the 2 since westbrook is staying at the 1. i don't know much about his game really though, especially defensively and his rebounding. i agree with taking thabeet though. even though he is likely to average about 5 points a game his rookie year, if he can block over 2 shots a game that will help us quite a bit i think.

[the_ouskull]

I just think that Sefolosha's defensive (current) ability and (future) potential and Westbrook leave us pretty solid at the 2. If we wanted to start discussing 2's that would be beneficial to us, then Harden would be near the top of the discussion, yes... I just think that we have more pressing needs.

If Westbrook is our, fo'-sho' future at the point, then I think that we need to grab a 5, not a 2. Yeah, I'd like to see us with an upgrade at the 2, but we do still have another year or so worth of development from Weaver before it's time to make a decision on him.

Also, one thing that I forgot was Shaun Livingston. If he gets himself back up to full health, remember that he was the #4 overall pick in the draft... he's got size and potential. Eventually we could see him playing the 2 for us, putting, essentially, two 1's on the floor for us.

I think that, with Weaver, Livingston, and Wilkins, and, of course, Watson, Sefolosha, and Westbrook, we're okay in the backcourt. Sure, I'd like to see a dynamic guard on our roster... a Rubio at the point; a Harden at the 2... but I think we're in more immediate, dire, need of a big, defensive-minded post not named Krstic.

1 - Rubio
2 - Westbrook
3 - Durant
4 - Green
5 - Collisonrstic

OR

1 - Westbrook
2 - Sefolosha
3 - Durant
4 - Green
5 - Thabeet

Either of those lineups would be good to run with, and give us a fairly deep bench to boot. Watson, Krsticollison, Weaver, Livingston, etc.. Also, don't we have more than one first-round pick this year...? We could be a mini-Portland next season... only with decent guards...

the_ouskull

[bent rider]

Chad Ford (espn) thinks that the Grizzlies will take Thabeet, needing a 5, leaving OKC to choose from Ricky Rubio (PG, Spain) and James Harden (SG, Az State).

Could a trade be in the works to move up to #1? OKC has a second first round pick, but no second round pick.

[starrca23]

Rubio...I hate that, but Thabeet is a Greg Oden waiting to happen. In fact he is a combo Oden-Bol...

[soonerfan28]

I would think they would take Harden instead of Rubio unless the plan on moving Westbrook to the 2. Westbrook isn't a true point anyway.

[soonervegas]

They are not going to pass on Rubio at 3. (If Griffin and Thabeet are gone) This is a 3 player (maybe 2 player) draft. I think Rubio has the 2nd best shot of being an NBA star.

[sitzpinkler]

I think it's really a one player draft. Outside of Blake I don't see another player in the whole lot becoming worth a **** in the NBA. What a ****ty year to have the third pick in the first round.

[All_Day_28]

If Rubio is there you take him in a second.

[pappy]

I'm hoping for rubio now...but I'd rather trade up to get griffin (duh statement I know)

[soonerfan28]

How do we play Green and Westbrook if we have Rubio? It would almost make more sense to draft Jordan Hill because he's the best post we'll get, but Rubio is the best value so who freakin' knows.

[kbsooner21]

Rubio will be taken. Harden will not.

[All_Day_28]

How do we play Green and Westbrook if we have Rubio? It would almost make more sense to draft Jordan Hill because he's the best post we'll get, but Rubio is the best value so who freakin' knows.

you move westbrook to the 2 and start Rubio at the point.