8time's formula for a #1 Seed

[8timechamps]

I've burned up what few brain cells I had developing a formula to determine what our chances are for getting a #1 seed. I used a very simple formula. It's a three part process, so here they are:

The RPI Factor

All rpi data compiled was final as of 12/22/09.

This should be self explanitory. These are the averages from several RPI sites (realtimerpi.com, thehoopsreport.com, and rpiratings.com).

1. Pittsburgh .6785
2. Oklahoma .6661
3. UNC .6644
4. Duke .6573
5. UConn .6546
6. Mich. St. .6446
7. Memphis .6391

10. Kansas .6372
15. Mizzou .6231

The Stregnth of Conference Factor

Based on wins and losses as placed in the following parameters:

W-L against (teams) 1-25, 26-50, 51-100, 101-200 then 201+.
I used my own "numerical system" per parameter (not rocket science). I also broke out W-L on home court vs. on the road. There is nothing official about my process...I'm sure it's flawed, but it's my process.

1. ACC
2. Big East
3. Big Ten
4. Pac-10
5. Big 12
6. SEC
7. MVC
8. CUSA
9. MWC
10. A 10

The Committee's pull-it-out-of-their-***-factor

This is the hardest factor for anyone to figure out. There's been years when I was 100% convinced someone had pictures on someone else. For whatever reason, each year they throw in a "WTF" pick.

Here's where I think we could be in the most danger of losing a #1 seed with another loss. The Big XII isn't going to be getting a lot of love from the committee. It's been disappointing this year. Combine that with some of the surprising conferences (Big East, exppected to be good as usual, but really turning out some quality teams). We may be okay with a loss to Mizzou (in Columbia), or our next loss coming deep in the conference tournament. Other than that, we can't afford to lose to both KU and Mizzou, or make an early departure from the conference tourny. That would cost us.

I see us finishing with one more loss (to Mizzou), and making it to the Big XII title game. That should give us one of the elusive #1 seeds.

Or, I'm a complete moron...and have no idea what it's going to take.

[soonerfan28]

I don't have a fancy formula so I'll just say that if we win out then we get a #1 seed and that is counting the tournament. We'll have wins over #10 and #15 to finish out the season which isn't bad at all. Even though will have some weak wins over teams like Tech and A&M. That Arkansas loss is looking worse as they continue to suck a$$.

[NormanPride]

I don't know how people think the Big 10 is better than the Big 12. That conference is devoid of talent, just like their football selves.

[8timechamps]

I don't know how people think the Big 10 is better than the Big 12. That conference is devoid of talent, just like their football selves.

I know, everone thinks the same thing when it comes to the Big 10 (I think it has something to do with football). If you look at the two conferences as of today, the Big 10 is poised to put more teams in the NCAA tourny than the Big XII:

Big 10
#9 Michigan State
#16 Purdue
#20 Illinois
Penn State
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Ohio State

And Michigan is on the bubble (for their 8th team)

Compare that to:

Big XII
#3 Oklahoma
#11 Mizzou
#15 Kansas
Kansas State
Texas

With Oklahoma State (and probably KSU) on the bubble.

The Big 10 has been getting a little overlooked this year (I think because Indiana has sucked).