My bold prediction for the Presidential election

[Big Red Ron]

Since a majority of undecided voters are breaking toward McCain, I see the most likely scenario to be; Obama wins the popular vote and losses a close electoral college vote.

This will be closer than Bush v. Gore in 2000 (BTW - the last time we won a national championship in football was the last time the Republican lost the popular vote but won the electoral college).

McCain gets 271 electoral votes with surprise wins in CO and MN, also winning toss up states FL, MT, ND, OH, IN and NC.

If that scenario plays out McCain gets 271 and wins the closest election in history.

This is not wishful thinking either. This is a very likely scenario.

If I'm wrong, I'll be more than happy to eat my crow.

Obama has outspent McCain 4-1, which is HUGE when we're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars.

[sooner n houston]

You may be correct. I have had two co-workers today tell me they voted last week. Both are Dem's. Both said they went in with every intention of voting of the "O", but once inside they could not do it. How many million times will this be played out tomorrow?

[85Sooner]

Since a majority of undecided voters are breaking toward McCain, I see the most likely scenario to be; Obama wins the popular vote and losses a close electoral college vote.

This will be closer than Bush v. Gore in 2000 (BTW - the last time we won a national championship in football was the last time the Republican lost the popular vote but won the electoral college).

McCain gets 271 electoral votes with surprise wins in CO and MN, also winning toss up states FL, MT, ND, OH, IN and NC.

If that scenario plays out McCain gets 271 and wins the closest election in history.

This is not wishful thinking either. This is a very likely scenario.

If I'm wrong, I'll be more than happy to eat my crow.

Obama has outspent McCain 4-1, which is HUGE when we're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars (that cannot be accounted for when it comes to identifying the donors) .

Fixed and if that happens everyone better be armed.

[tommieharris91]

Since a majority of undecided voters are breaking toward McCain,

I stopped reading here.

[Big Red Ron]

You may be correct. I have had two co-workers today tell me they voted last week. Both are Dem's. Both said they went in with every intention of voting of the "O", but once inside they could not do it. How many million times will this be played out tomorrow?

More than can be quantified by pollsters.

I spoke with McCain's pollster on Friday, he had a sincere air of confidence which surprised me.

[My Opinion Matters]

I predict the Playmate of the Year will deliver me a trunk full of a cash in a Corvette.

[Big Red Ron]

I predict the Playmate of the Year will deliver me a trunk full of a cash in a Corvette.

So, you work for Hef or what? Sounds more like a dream than a prediction on your part.

[picasso]

Obama wins big. Has the country in the crapper in 2 years. the media finally questions him.

film at eleven.

[My Opinion Matters]

So, you work for Hef or what? Sounds more like a dream than a prediction on your part.

What? I thought this was the FantasyLand prediction thread.

[soonervegas]

Worst case scenario.

I don't want a tight loss by Dems. This country will be at each other's throats.

[JohnnyMack]

I for one am shocked, shocked I say, at your prediction. I would have never expected it.

[jage]

You're right!

....


That IS a bold prediction.

[soonerscuba]

Bold is one word for calling MN for McCain. He is down by at least 8 in every poll I've seen but one and the state hasn't voted for a Republican since '72.

[JohnnyMack]

Hey Ron, I know you're like way smarter than the rest of us in terms of all this stuff, but Bush had like a one or two point lead at this point in 2004 and he went on to win by 3 points. I see Obama's average lead at about 6 or 7 points today. So can you explain why you think this massive shift will take place?

[Big Red Ron]

What? I thought this was the FantasyLand prediction thread.

Why don't you go try and thread jack someone else's thread. This is a serious discussion. Now, let the grown ups chat and go back to the kiddie table.

[Echoes]

Yeah man, I see MN as a stretch for sure. It could still happen (your scenario) but i can't see it happening with MN.

[Frozen Sooner]

Hey Ron, I know you're like way smarter than the rest of us in terms of all this stuff, but Bush had like a one or two point lead at this point in 2004 and he went on to win by 3 points. I see Obama's average lead at about 6 or 7 points today. So can you explain why you think this massive shift will take place?

[Big Red Ron]

Hey Ron, I know you're like way smarter than the rest of us in terms of all this stuff, but Bush had like a one or two point lead at this point in 2004 and he went on to win by 3 points. I see Obama's average lead at about 6 or 7 points today. So can you explain why you think this massive shift will take place?

I've never said I'm smarter than anyone (although there are clearly stupid people here). I am a pollster/market researcher and do quite a bit of political work every other year. That said, Rasmussen has it much closer than 5 or 6.

Also, remember all these national polls have around a 4% margin of error; meaning there could be up to an 8% swing based on the MOE.

It's really not a massive swing at all when you consider the MOE and look at the electoral college.

[Big Red Ron]

Bold is one word for calling MN for McCain. He is down by at least 8 in every poll I've seen but one and the state hasn't voted for a Republican since '72.

True but this is a very different election. I would also not be suprised if PA went for McCain.

[tommieharris91]

--> Don't worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA's polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they've never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...ition-113.html

Also according to that site, every poll for the past 2 weeks has Obama well ahead in PA, most outside of the MOE.