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Thread: I'm calling it.

  1. #1
    SoonerFans.com Elite Member Okla-homey's Avatar
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    I'm calling it.

    Last month, I stated I would call this election based on polling one month out.

    Today, BHO leads McCain by around 3 points. That's less than Kerry led W at this point in 2004.

    Objectively speaking, I don't think BHO is going to make it. The early voting is done in Ohio and the turn-out was far less than predicted. Only about 3000. This was the voting in Ohio the Pubs feared was most prone for shenanigans.

    What, you say, would have been enough for me to call it the other way? A better than ten point lead for BHO this week.

    Oh, to be sure, it'll be close, but given the overall mood of the country, the bail-out/econ-0-mess, the war, and the incumbent president's unpopularity, one would think this should be all BHO by a landslide. It ain't. Not this week anyway, and by now, folks have pretty much made up their minds. IMHO, that spells doom for the freshman Senator from Illinois by way of Honolulu.

    BHO has a lock on the youth vote, but JSM has the oldsters. And oldsters actually follow-thru, get off the couch and go vote on Election Day.

    Now, if some earth-shattering scandalous revelation were to come to light now about JSM, that could flip it, but given the guy has been in public life for over forty years, that is very unlikely. Or, JSM could throw-up on himself during tonights debate spectacle. Again, unlikely.

    In short, Pubs hold on to the White House in '08.

    Oh, and BTW, we're gonna Beat Texas too.
    Last edited by Okla-homey; 10/7/2008 at 10:02 AM.
    "Discourage litigation. Persuade your neighbors to compromise whenever they can. Point out to them how the nominal winner is often a real loser; in fees, expenses and waste of time." -- Abraham Lincoln, (1809-1865) Lawyer and President who saved the United States.

    "Without opportunities on the part of the poor to obtain expert legal advice, it is idle to talk of equality before the law"-- Justice Chas. Evans Hughes

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    SoonerFans.com Elite Member Flagstaffsooner's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    I hope you're right on both counts.
    posse member

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    SoonerFans.com Elite Member Fugue's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    I'm with you on the thing but I have the feelling that Omama is going to win.

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    Sooner All-World StoopTroup's Avatar
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    Wink Re: I'm calling it.

    Homey...

    Seriously....

    Were you gonna call it the other way?

    I mean if it was of landslide proportions...I know you might then...

    But seriously...

    Read that using your best Bill Maher voice btw.


  5. #5
    SoonerFans.com Elite Member Okla-homey's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by StoopTroup View Post
    Homey...

    Seriously....

    Were you gonna call it the other way?

    I mean if it was of landslide proportions...I know you might then...

    But seriously...

    Read that using your best Bill Maher voice btw.

    You don't know me very well if you don't think I can be objective about who's gonna win at this point. Wanting JSM to win and being realistic about it are two entirely different kettles of crappie. Besides, it doesn't really matter here in the Sooner State because BHO, nor any other Donk, could possibly carry here in the foreseeable future.
    "Discourage litigation. Persuade your neighbors to compromise whenever they can. Point out to them how the nominal winner is often a real loser; in fees, expenses and waste of time." -- Abraham Lincoln, (1809-1865) Lawyer and President who saved the United States.

    "Without opportunities on the part of the poor to obtain expert legal advice, it is idle to talk of equality before the law"-- Justice Chas. Evans Hughes

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    Sooner All-World StoopTroup's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Okla-homey View Post
    You don't know me very well if you don't think I can be objective about who's gonna win at this point. Wanting JSM to win and being realistic about it are two entirely different kettles of crappie.
    You didn't see the winkie thingy did you...lol

  7. #7
    Sooner All-World
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    McCain has no chance in hell in winning this election. I wish I were wrong but I just dont' see it

  8. #8
    Sooner All-World StoopTroup's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    I have gone into political hibernation at this point and refuse to take any of it seriously since the bailout.

    The bailout and the fallout of said bailout has me on edge.

    The RRSO isn't helping either...

    We need to get this one under OUr belt ASAP.

    At 3 or 4 pm Saturday I expect to be a very happy Sooner Fan.

    Doesn't look like I get to go either...life happened again.

  9. #9
    SoonerFans.com Elite Member Okla-homey's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by oumartin View Post
    McCain has no chance in hell in winning this election. I wish I were wrong but I just dont' see it
    You must step back and look at the whole enchilada. Srsly.

    A moderate Donk, like HRC, or any Donk governor could have walked away with this thing. This year was literally, the Perfect Storm year for the Donks to sail to victory. But where are they at? Less than a five point lead.

    The simple fact of the matter is, BHO scares middle-aged and older people. Some of it is probably fair, some if it isn't. And they vote 3-1 more frequently than the under 30 set.
    "Discourage litigation. Persuade your neighbors to compromise whenever they can. Point out to them how the nominal winner is often a real loser; in fees, expenses and waste of time." -- Abraham Lincoln, (1809-1865) Lawyer and President who saved the United States.

    "Without opportunities on the part of the poor to obtain expert legal advice, it is idle to talk of equality before the law"-- Justice Chas. Evans Hughes

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    SoonerFans.com Elite Member JohnnyMack's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Once again Homey swoops in with his statistics manipulated to make his case seem plausible. He uses 3% as BHO's lead when in fact the poll of polls shows a different number:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

    It shows 5.3% (beyond the margin of error).

    Homey also fails to post the state by state polls:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

    which show again a bit of a different story than the one Homey tries to spin.
    Atheist.

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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyMack View Post
    Once again Homey swoops in with his statistics manipulated to make his case seem plausible. He uses 3% as BHO's lead when in fact the poll of polls shows a different number:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

    It shows 5.3% (beyond the margin of error).

    Homey also fails to post the state by state polls:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

    which show again a bit of a different story than the one Homey tries to spin.
    You are obsessed to the point of illness Tuba Jr.

  12. #12
    SoonerFans.com Elite Member Okla-homey's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyMack View Post
    Once again Homey swoops in with his statistics manipulated to make his case seem plausible. He uses 3% as BHO's lead when in fact the poll of polls shows a different number:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

    It shows 5.3% (beyond the margin of error).

    Homey also fails to post the state by state polls:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

    which show again a bit of a different story than the one Homey tries to spin.
    Here's an idea. You start a thread calling it for BHO. Then, we'll see who was right on November 4th. And it'll be me.
    "Discourage litigation. Persuade your neighbors to compromise whenever they can. Point out to them how the nominal winner is often a real loser; in fees, expenses and waste of time." -- Abraham Lincoln, (1809-1865) Lawyer and President who saved the United States.

    "Without opportunities on the part of the poor to obtain expert legal advice, it is idle to talk of equality before the law"-- Justice Chas. Evans Hughes

  13. #13
    SoonerFans.com Elite Member JohnnyMack's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Okla-homey View Post
    Here's an idea. You start a thread calling it for BHO. Then, we'll see who was right on November 4th. And it'll be me.
    I'm not calling it for anybody. I told you all along that I thought McCain would win a close election. I think there are enough people in middle American who have bought into the ideas sold by the Lee Atwater and Karl Rove's of the world for it go any other way. I hope Obama wins, but I think we all know what's the matter with Kansas.
    Atheist.

  14. #14
    Junice Groupie Howzit's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    McCain's only chance is if the market at least shows some semblance of a bounce back in the next 4 weeks. And I don't see that happening.

    Either way, I'm voting Barr, simply because I've had it with the two primary parties. And I live in Texas.

  15. #15
    Sooner All-Big XII-2-1+1-1+1 frankensooner's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    By Percentange, by how much with Jack Inhofe throttle Andy Rice? 30%?

  16. #16
    SoonerFans.com Elite Member Fugue's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyMack View Post
    I'm not calling it for anybody. I told you all along that I thought McCain would win a close election. I think there are enough people in middle American who have bought into the ideas sold by the Lee Atwater and Karl Rove's of the world for it go any other way. I hope Obama wins, but I think we all know what's the matter with Kansas.
    Looks like Sippy Cup needs another whoopin'.

  17. #17
    Sooner All-Big XII-2-1+1-1+1 frankensooner's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    I know McCain will carry Oklahoma, but I have never seen so many Democratic yard signs for a presidental canidate in this state.

  18. #18
    SoonerFans.com Elite Member SoonerInKCMO's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics. FDR.

  19. #19
    Sooner All-Big XII-2-1+1-1+1 Half a Hundred's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by frankensooner View Post
    By Percentange, by how much with Jack Inhofe throttle Andy Rice? 30%?
    James Mountain Inhofe doesn't need your fancy statistics and book-learnin'.

  20. #20
    SoonerFans.com Elite Member JohnnyMack's Avatar
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    Re: I'm calling it.

    Quote Originally Posted by frankensooner View Post
    By Percentange, by how much with Jack Inhofe throttle Andy Rice? 30%?
    Jim Inhofe's campaign is a perfection reflection of What's the Matter With Kansas? the book. He preys on fear and scare tactics and portrays himself as some sort of everyman. The ads he's running are reprehensible. I thought very little of Inhofe before this election and although I know he'll win anyway, I wouldn't miss the opportunity to vote against him.
    Atheist.

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