Last month, I stated I would call this election based on polling one month out.
Today, BHO leads McCain by around 3 points. That's less than Kerry led W at this point in 2004.
Objectively speaking, I don't think BHO is going to make it. The early voting is done in Ohio and the turn-out was far less than predicted. Only about 3000. This was the voting in Ohio the Pubs feared was most prone for shenanigans.
What, you say, would have been enough for me to call it the other way? A better than ten point lead for BHO this week.
Oh, to be sure, it'll be close, but given the overall mood of the country, the bail-out/econ-0-mess, the war, and the incumbent president's unpopularity, one would think this should be all BHO by a landslide. It ain't. Not this week anyway, and by now, folks have pretty much made up their minds. IMHO, that spells doom for the freshman Senator from Illinois by way of Honolulu.
BHO has a lock on the youth vote, but JSM has the oldsters. And oldsters actually follow-thru, get off the couch and go vote on Election Day.
Now, if some earth-shattering scandalous revelation were to come to light now about JSM, that could flip it, but given the guy has been in public life for over forty years, that is very unlikely. Or, JSM could throw-up on himself during tonights debate spectacle. Again, unlikely.
In short, Pubs hold on to the White House in '08.
Oh, and BTW, we're gonna Beat Texas too.