Needless to say, what with us drafting #4 overall this past season, we're a few years away. Our roster reads like a who's-who of good-to-great college players who either haven't achieved their pro potential, or who are too young/missing something to be(come) great.
Our most likely starting lineup is:
1 - Earl Watson
2 - Kevin Durant
3 - Jeff Green
4 - Chris Wilcox
5 - Nick Collison
I can see this lineup getting a lot of the minutes. It's the most well-rounded in terms of ability and experience. However, I don't think that this is our best lineup. I think that our best lineup will be:
1 - Russell Westbrook
2 - Kyle Weaver
3 - Kevin Durant
4 - Jeff Green
5 - Chris Wilcox
It's not a very strong offensive lineup, to be sure, and the frontcourt, with the exception of Durant, who, while fairly tall, is very small, even for a 3, is hella undersized. BUT, this lineup will be very quick, and probably our best defensive lineup, which, at this point, is something we need to both sell to our team, and pride ourselves on.
-- I think that, in time, Westbrook will be a decent; a solid NBA player. I don't think he's a future All-Star or anything like that. (If it weren't for the fan voting, I wouldn't think that Durant is either though...) But, he's a h*ll of an athlete, and he's a solid defender who takes playing defense seriously. His outside shooting is suspect, and he's going to have trouble defending stronger/taller guards, even with his quickness, but his athleticism and upside make him our best long-term option at the point guard.
-- As for Kyle Weaver, I think that he's going to be one of the steals of this draft. He's already a really good defender, and, like Westbrook, someone who will commit to playing defense for the length of the court. With our starting backcourt being capable defenders, we can slow down the pace of the games and cover up our offensive "issues." But, Weaver also has a suspect outside shot, and, frankly, unlike Westbrook, I don't know if it will ever come around.
-- A lot of people see Durant as "the next big thing." Yes, he was dominant in college, and yes, he's a very skilled offensive player in terms of getting his shots. BUT, he's not very committed on the defensive end of the court, and putting him up against opposing 2's every night, even with his size and length (heh, yeah I did...) isn't going to be good for his confidence, or for our team. When he's not able to stop his man from scoring, he tends to try to make up for it by scoring more himself. Until he takes the defensive end of the court even more seriously than he takes the offensive end, he'll never be a star at the NBA level.
Some people see a rookie scoring 20 ppg, and they douse their drawers. I see a rookie who put up 205 three's, but only shot them at a 28% clip. He settles for jump shots too often. Of the Top 30 scorers in the NBA, only 2 shot a higher FT percentage than Durant. (Dirk and Caron Butler) So, while he was the 28th leading scorer in the NBA, he was only the 84th most efficient (based off of John Hollinger's PER rating... Google it) player in the league; a full 12 spots behind fellow rookie Al Horford, by the way.
So what he basically is, is an offensive player who will get, and believe me, take, his shots... whether or not it helps his team. I'm not saying that he plays selfishly. Don't misunderstand me. It's not like he had a lot of options to pass to anyway. But, if he's going to be an elite player, he has to be more willing to let the game come to him instead of taking bad shots just because nobody else is going to take (hit?) them.
For somebody who (allegedly) has such a high basketball IQ, he sure seems willing to settle for jumpers is all that I'm saying. And, his rebounding stats would back this up as well. He's between 6'9" and 6'11", depending on who you ask, and his wingspan is even greater than that, yet, because he spends so much of his time on the perimeter, he's only shooting 5.6 FT's per game, and he's only averaging 4.4 rpg.
He is, without a doubt, our best player, but he's far from a great player (he's 56th in the league in combined points/rebounds/assists, behind the likes of Mo Williams, Andre Miller, and Mike Dunleavy Jr) at this point. Whether or not he will become that player is completely up to him, and it's up to his off-season work ethic. Until his tapeworm-havin' body is up to the task of going to the basket, and going to work around the basket, more often, he's going to always be a good-but-not-great player.
-- Jeff Green is hard to figure. He's the bad kind of tweener; either a slow three, or an undersized four. Given that, in 28 minutes per game, he only averaged 4.7 boards, I'm going to have to lean towards both. He is another one of those great college players that may or may not become a good pro. He has trouble getting open looks, contributing to a poor shooting percentage. Also, for someone who is supposed to be such a solid passer, I'd like to see him with more than 1.5 apg. (Heck, even the black hole Durant averaged 2.4 per.) Green either needs to bulk up so that he can bang, or he needs to slim down so that he can more effectively guard other 3's. Until he leaves Tweener Land, he's going to struggle at the NBA level.
-- Chris Wilcox is a name that a lot of Sooner fans remember for the way that he dominated the Final Four that we should have won a few years back. However, that dominance has not translated nearly as well to the next level. He's not nearly as muscular when compared to NBA players as he was compared to the slow, white kids Kansas through at him, and his athleticism has been what's keeping him around, frankly. And, even that hasn't made for his being a competent defender. He's only averaging 0.6 bpg, and twice as many turnovers as assists. At least offensively he plays within himself. 95.3% of his shot attempts came from within the basket area. However, he only shoots 68.4% from the FT line. And, given that he's going to be 26 at the start of this season, we can realistically only expect another 2-4 years of his highlight reel dunks before his athleticism starts to fade, leaving him as an immobile, undersized center who can't shoot and can't play defense on 4's or 5's. This is a make-or-break year for him. Personally, I think that we need to trade him, and then trade back for him. When he came over from the Clippers halfway through the 2005-06 season, he posted averages that were well above his career highs all across the board, even averaging 79% from the line. In order for us to play well, he has to learn how to guard somebody, fast.
That's enough for now. I'll discuss the other players later...
the_ouskull
Originally Posted by the_ouskull
