Sooners v St. Joes

[StoopTroup]

Who do ya like?

[Socrefbek]

Plenty of motivation. All the talking heads are picking Sloppy Joe's ...

[OUSKINS]

Here's the deal: Everyone likes picking lower seeds in their bracket. So, when they see an 11 seed with a realistic chance to win, EVERYONE jumps on it.

And honestly, St. Joe's DOES have a realistic chance to win. As a matter of fact, I'd say this game is 51/49 in favor of OU. Translation: A toss-up.

OU deserves a 6 seed based on our body of work, but we are NOT a 6 seed in terms of talent/upside of a normal 6 seed in the Big Dance. Capel has gotten this team to overachieve this year.

So, I can't blame anyone who is picking St. Joe's to win this game.

Having said that....what many talking heads are failing to say is that OU has certainly had a better season than St. Joe's. Yeah, we may have taken a few on the chin from KU and Texas, but St. Joe's got drubbed by Lasalle. They lost to Duquense. They've gone 6-7 over their past 13 games.

They have Calathias, who is a HUGE match-up problem for us at 6'10 playing on the wing, but other than him, there really isn't much to be afraid of on that team. Solid players, well coached, decent results in a decent conference. We've been better this year and it is reflected in the seeding.

Blake and Longar can give St. Joe's a LOT of problems. And I don't think our guards need to be great in order for us to win this game. They just need to not suck. St. Joe's isn't going to explode on us like Texas did. If it's close late, I like our chances based on how we've done in clutch situations this season.

Yes, if we shoot 4-27 from three-point range, we're probably in trouble. But hopefully 2 things will happen:

1. We'll make more shots
2. We won't need to rely on the guards as much if our big men play well and keep the game tight.

Looking at the numbers, St. Joe's is not a good defensive team. That Lasalle juggernaut I mentioned dropped 100 on the them earlier this year. St. Joe's does score at a high rate though. Then again, we're a very good defensive team who was shutting people down before we played Texas.

My prediction:

OU gets off to a rocky start offensively, but manages to hang in the game by battling on the boards and playing good defense. First half is low-scoring, with a score within 5 points either way.

St. Joe's is unable to really get smoking against our defense in the second half and we slowly turn the game into a real physical contest, which we gradually win.

Not real pretty, but I see OU winning in the 64-60 range. As I mentioned earlier, I could absolutely see us losing this game, but I'm picking us to win.

After that, we root like heck for Boise to upset Louisville. And if that doesn't happen, we just go out Sunday and play loose and free and see what happens. Making the tournament this year makes it a very good season. Winning one game makes it great. Winning more than one would be a dream. Any way you slice it, it's nice to be involved.

[SoonerObsession]

With a week to prepare, I'm sure St. Joes will figure out that if they shut down our inside game, they have a 90 % chance of winning. I hope I'm wrong.

[LRoss]

OUSkins is right -- for a 6/11 matchup, we are pretty beatable and could be an upset worth taking a shot on.

That said, OU's still the better team and I think wins 7 or 8 out of 10 on a neutral court.

[Dr. Jelly Finger]

Without seeing SJ at all this year, I get the impression that they are much like Baylor in the way that they play. We were every comeptitive with the Bears and managed to sweep the series which I think bodes well for us. At 6'10, I think that I will take Griffin over this kid that they have been saddling up all year.

[stoopified]

Checking thier record I see their worst defeat wasby 14 points.Most of their losses are bv 5 or fewer points.Further research shows St. Joes is 2-2 vs. TOP 25.OU is 3-7.In addittion OU is 8-8 vs. TOP 50.Couldn't find a TOP 50 record for St Joes.It would appear OU is more battle tested.SJ does not have 4 games vs. TOP 10 teams like OU does (KU,UT X3).

[StoopTroup]

28 of us got it right....

[shaun4411]

who are the two we get to flog?

[SoonerObsession]

I'm a flogee. I did it because I knew the Sooners would win if I went against them.

[SleestakSooner]

OUSKINS I appreciate all the thought and effort you put in, but you couldn't have been much more wrong about how the game would go in your above post.

Calathes tied a season low while scoring only six points as David Godbold shut him down all game long. He did lead all players in rebounds though with one for each point he scored.

I don't think anyone could have predicted Godbold would not only play great D but also go on a scoring rampage of his own.

This is what I have really loved about the Sooners this season. You never know which one will step up and carry the team. That isn't always the case of course, but most of the year if the opposition focused on Blake, Longar or one or two of the guards would step in and get their open shots.

So now who does the next opponent focus on? Will Blake see fewer double teams in the next game because they are worried that Godbold will burn them?

Man this team has been fun to follow... except when playing those ****ing dongwhorns.

At least you picked the right team to win.

[OUSKINS]

OUSKINS I appreciate all the thought and effort you put in, but you couldn't have been much more wrong about how the game would go in your above post.

2 things I didn't expect:

1. OU's blitz to end the half/start the 2nd.
2. Godbold having the game of his life.

Other than that, I had it spot-on