Blake Griffin = NBA Prospect

[the_ouskull]

I mean, it's not like we didn't already know it, but ESPN's John Hollinger, a man whose basketball opinion I respect even more than my own, (tongue planted firmly in cheek) created a very accurate method for rating the pro potential of college players, called, "Rating the Pro Potential of College Players." Genius. (Tongue NOT in cheek. The man really is a basketball genius.)

Anyway, with all of the appropriate disclaimers (these stats are only for half a season, they're mostly against cupcakes, any slumps a player has are exacerbated by the fact that it's only half a season's worth of stats so far, etc...) the #2 player on the list (to K-State's Beasley - something else I agree with) is none other than OU's Blake Griffin.

(It's Insider content, so I'm only posting the blurb about Blake... sorry.)

Of the players on the list below, the one most vulnerable in that respect is the No. 2 prospect, Oklahoma's Blake Griffin. He's listed at 6-10 but some scouts suspect he's only 6-8; were that the case, he'd fall to the No. 6 spot.

In 2002, his list (had it existed at the time) would have selected Carlos Boozer, an All-Star in his early-mid 20's and getting better each year, as the #1 overall pick. This is quite likely what would be the result if the draft were held again today. (Yao Ming, Caron Butler, Amare Stoudemire, and Tayshaun Prince are his only competition... unless you're partial to Juan Dixon or Casey Jacobsen.)

With Blake on this team for another two years, we have a chance to really, really make some noise. If we get what we're hoping for in this Warren kid, we're making noise NEXT year, with Taylor a senior, Blake a sophomore, and Longar a(n) alumnus. Warren IS a point, right? 'cause right now, we don't have one, and it sucks. It sucks that our best passer is our starting 4, and an NBA prospect ranking somewhere between #2 and #6 depending on 2 inches.

It may not be as successful as some of Kelvin's years, but I'll be d*mned if this year isn't more exciting than some of Kelvin's years.

(And that's not a "style of play" crack, because I think those are mainly made by people that don't really have a legit complaint against Kelvin, so they follow an inaccurate party line... His teams play great defense, and when you outscore the other team, you win. His teams scored when his players took, and made, good shots. They didn't play well when they slacked off on defense, and Terrell Everett and Taj Gray had trouble playing together, ruining Kevin Bookout in the process because he needed somebody to pass him the ball to be truly effective.)

- Wow. Sorry about the rant. I guess it's just really, really basketball season right now. It's almost All-Star Weekend. The NCAA is getting deep into conference play, with "the return trips" starting to happen. I love basketball.

So does Blake Griffin. We need more like him. Anybody else notice how well Taylor (who I said two years ago was OU's best NBA prospect at that time) Griffin plays when he's playing with someone who knows how and where to get him the ball? Jus' sayin'.

the_ouskull

[NormanPride]

You really think Blake stays for another two years? Wow. That would be incredible. I think he'd instantly skyrocket to the top 10 most hated players in the Big 12 by other teams.

[crawfish]

I think Blake comes back next year, since it'll probably be the last year he gets to competitively play with Taylor. It would shock me if he stayed longer than that.

[MojoRisen]

I agree don't think he would stay after Soph Year depending on how he improves with his mid range jumper and free throws. In the NBA you need to be able to consistantly hit 15-18 foot jumpers like 90% in practice in my opinion a little different when everyone is a super ATH and a hand in your face. He is a great BBALL IQ and Passer - I hope he would stay until he is a Junior - depending on Next years Recruiting Class perhaps we could make a run and that would entice him too stick around.

Kelvin is a cheater - that is all

[cheezyq]

I don't think he stays past this year, personally. If he's a top-5 pick, which I think he is, I think he'll take the money and head for the NBA. And he would be very smart to do so.

Let me explain why I think this is the case. First off, he's already physically and athletically ready for the NBA. He's much stronger than anyone on the college level, and that shows up in plays like the one against oSucks to put us up 60-57. Now, you combine his brute strength and athletic dominance with his poor FT shooting and lack of midrange/outside game, and you now have a formula for serious injury. Teams will hack away at him, knowing that he struggles at the line. And we've already seen that teams like oSucks are comfortable with employing marginally ethical (to put it nicely) tactics to accomplish that goal.

It's similar to Shaq when he was at LSU. He may or may not have wanted to stay and become one of the most dominant players in college history. But he really had no choice but to leave, due to risk of serious injury. Blake's not Shaq, but he's got a similar breakdown of skills and weaknesses.

And the weaknesses in Blake's game are also very correctable at the next level. He can function as a good low-post player and rebounder and continue refining the FT-shooting and midrange game, all while making a great living.

I'd love nothing more than to see Blake stay 2-3-4 years and rewrite the OU record books and possibly bring home a Final Four, or a National Championship. But if he's smart (and I think he is), he'll leave after one season. There's just too much at stake.

[SOONER STEAKER]

Gotta agree with cheezyq, can't turn those $30M contracts down which he should be able to get this coming NB draft. It's nice to play with yoru brother but money talks. Just ask Ryan Minor if he should have turned NBA pro after his junior season.

[Collier11]

I know one thing, everytime Taylor has a 15 and 10 game he is playing his way into a NBA career, the NBA loves those type of players that are extremely tough and athletic

[the_ouskull]

I agree don't think he would stay after Soph Year depending on how he improves with his mid range jumper and free throws. In the NBA you need to be able to consistantly hit 15-18 foot jumpers like 90% in practice in my opinion a little different when everyone is a super ATH and a hand in your face. He is a great BBALL IQ and Passer - I hope he would stay until he is a Junior - depending on Next years Recruiting Class perhaps we could make a run and that would entice him too stick around.

Kelvin is a cheater - that is all

How did you get to 1500 posts around here without someone crawling in your butt like Richard Gere's gerbil and ripping you a few new ones? That's all that I want to know... I guess I'm going to have to start posting around here again. From where did you pull your 90% number, first of all? Second of all, he's a decent passer; a good passer for being a college big man, but far from being a "great" passer. Chris Paul, Jason Kidd (used to be) and Steve Nash are GREAT passers. Kevin Garnett is a GREAT passer for a 4. Blake's got a ways to go to be in that category. The potential is there, yes, but it's just potential so far. Potential doesn't get tapped just because someone declares early.

Anyway...

-----

As for the grownups that have responded to this thread...

Blake may or may not be a Top 5 pick currently, but, as stated initially, and twice over for the Crimson-Colored-Glasses sect, don't read too much into these numbers just yet. The NBA draft is based on long-term potential as much as, if not MORE than current abilities. I don't care how talented the freshmen are, I would rather take a senior-laden team into a tournament than I would a freshman team.

"Potential," however, only matters before the draft. After the draft, potential, thy name is Longar Longar. Either you tap said potential, asafp, or you get a scarlet "B" across your chest for "Bust."

(See also, Reddick, JJ; Morrison, Adam; Williams, Marvin; Frye, Channing; Webster, Martell; Graham, Joey; Green, Gerald; Williams, Shelden; O'Bryant, Patrick; and Sene, Mouhamed... not to mention one of the biggest "potentials" to come across the draft board in a while and do (to date) not much with it... Milicic, Darko. Hasn't he now played for more teams than seasons he's played?)

What Blake does with his potential is up to him... He's a hard worker, he loves the game, and he's basketball smart. BUT OU's doing things like listing him at 6/10 when he isn't, and playing him while he may still be injured... Those things may help my college's basketball team, which always pleases me... but they are doing nothing to ready Blake for the NBA, which is difficult enough without pre-labeling talented players.

When it comes to the NBA draft, with this year's college crop of players, Blake isn't competing against players like Beasley, except on-the-court. He's competing against players who are talented (somewhat) that didn't make the Top 20 of this Hollinger list, like OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon... all VERY talented players who, for various reasons, aren't currently listed as Top 20 prospects. (Lack of shooting ability and poor decision-making, level of competition, and a recent slump, respectively... Once again, see his disclaimer regarding the lack of an adequate sample size of minutes and games to make a full decision...)

Physically, as in "an NBA-ready body," yes, he IS ready for the NBA. However, he's still got a lot of work to do to get to where NBA teams will want him... He's not a legit 6/10, regardless of how big he plays. This will hurt him defensively at the next level. He passes well for a big(ger) man, but he doesn't handle the ball well enough (yet) to pass out of double teams at the next level. He's got a decent jumpshot, but he doesn't have NBA-ready consistency or range on his shot. Also, his FT shooting is less-than-stellar, ESPECIALLY when you consider how well-developed, for his age and experience, the rest of his game is.

Shaquille O'Neal stayed at LSU until after his Junior season. So did Michael Jordan at UNC. I know that the top tier players nowadays don't stay in school as long as their counterparts from a number of years ago, true...

But, at the same time, between his injury, his brother, and the fact that the kid genuinely loves playing college basketball and knows enough about it to know that he's not ready for the next level yet and that "learning on the fly" isn't the best of ideas... and he's got a laundry list of guys who were better college talents than he has been so far to ask.

Is he better off being Blake Griffin at OU, Freshman All-American, Sophomore All-American candidate, playing for the Big 12 title with another top freshman, Willie Warren, and his older biological brother? Or.. is he better off getting paid to watch older players either start in front of him on a good team, or beat him up on a bad team; depending on where he gets drafted?

It is my personal opinion that Blake Griffin has the drive and the potential talent necessary to not only play in the NBA, but, unlike OU's last NBA-caliber player, Eduardo Najera, he has the ability to excel at the NBA level. He may never be an All-Star type player, but he can be a solid (14-18 / 8-10 / 2-4 on 50%+ shooting) player on a number of teams...

...assuming he's a legit 6/10. If it turns out he's 6/8, or, even worse, 6/7ish, then he's looking at being a 3 at the next level, and that changes everything. When evaluating pro potential, you can't look at what a player has done to date and allow that to be the be-all, end-all. Also, most stats relate to how a player performs OFFENSIVELY. What kind of defender are we saying that Blake will be at the next level? THAT is what teams REALLY care about... Is Blake ready, now, to guard Kevin Garnett? Tim Duncan? Chris Bosh? Those are NBA 4's. He's shorter than all of them, and, although he's stronger than all of them as well, the only one less mobile than him is TD, who is flawless fundamentally. These are the things you have to consider as well...

He may very, very well go out after this season. However, contrary to what is being reported on the Sooner websites, he'd be better served by staying at LEAST one more year, if not two. I think that, given the jump that players as talented as he make from their freshman to their sophomore season, he'll be generating a lot more "buzz" next year... not to mention playing with the Warren kid... if HE'S as good as advertised... but that's another entry for another day.

To review: Blake Griffin, NBA prospect. True. Should he leave after this season? I don't think so. After next season? Well, we'll have to see how next season goes to know the answer to that one, won't we? I think that he could go, and excel, after next season. I also think that, if he waits until after his Junior season, then, barring some kind of serious and / or debilitating injury, he's a Top 3 pick, no matter who else comes out that same year.

I'm interested in hearing anybody's serious analysis of Blake and his current and future potential... but "he's real good now," isn't much of an analysis. The NBA is a completely different game. Also, given how many of you have announced early and often that you don't care for the NBA, try to factor THAT in as well.

I'm not trying to argue... much... but I love talking hoops. Just don't bring knives to a gunfight without something on which to sharpen them. Stats, past results, etc... make for pretty good flint. Good day for now, gentlemen. Sorry about the length... (And now, that's NOT "what SHE said." )

the_ouskull

[MojoRisen]

OU SKULL- are you out of your mind. Hey dude I played basketball - the old man played basketball for OU. You should hit 90% of your jumpers in practice if you are working on it at all.

I apologize for you in advance for being a deuschrocket -

Mojo

[Collier11]

OU SKULL- are you out of your mind. Hey dude I played basketball - the old man played basketball for OU. You should hit 90% of your jumpers in practice if you are working on it at all.

I apologize for you in advance for being a deuschrocket -

Mojo

Dont know if you guys are just messin around or not but regardless, the 90% number is retarded. For a shooting guard perhaps close, for a 3,4, or 5 hell no! Not even close, and I played bball my whole life as well! Have you ever seen some of the NBA post players shoot?

[OUSKINS]

A few things we KNOW:

1. Blake Griffin has top level NBA type talent. I'd say he'd go anywhere from 3rd to 9th in the draft, but certainly a lottery pick, right now. In the NBA more than any other league, teams draft on potential. The fact that Blake doesn't have an outside game, doesn't really hurt him too badly in terms of draft status.

2. He doesn't have an outside game. Again, I don't think that hurts him too much in terms of where he'll get picked, but it could hurt him ONCE he gets there. If he enters the league a bit more polished, he may see more playing time off the bat and be viewed as less of a project.

3. From what I understand, there does not appear to be any family/financial reasons for him to NEED to leave early. From what I can gather, the money could wait another year or two and the Griffins wouldn't be suffering for it.

I don't think his decision is based on draft STATUS, I really don't. I think he'd be a pretty high lottery pick this year and I think he'd be a pretty high lottery pick next year, regardless. And NBA money doesn't really kick in until AFTER your first contract (3 years). If Blake went 2nd as opposed to 8th, it isn't going to make a very big difference financially.

Here's the decision Blake will need to make:

--Leave now, be a lottery pick, secure some dough, and start the pro career. The pro to this is the security. Don't have to worry about injuries or anything else bad happening in college next year. The con to this is that coming out as a freshmen, his game is still pretty raw, and an NBA team might want to draft him anyway, but possible take more time in molding him.

--Stay another year, play with Willie Warren for a season, and stick around for Taylor's senior year. The pro to this is twofold. He gets to stay in a comfort zone around friends and family for another year. And with Warren on board, OU could make a serious run next season, which I am sure is appealing to any college basketball player. He can also improve his game, and enter the NBA with a more refined skill set, potentially increasing how much and how effectively he will play. The con to this is obvious: Injury risk, etc...

This is hard to do, but I always try and step back and think what would I advise this kid if I had the chance? From what I can see, I think I'd advise Blake to return for his sophomore season. Playing with your brother on what could be a very good NCAA basketball team is a rare opportunity. I think I'd advise him to take advantage of that, and work on his game so that he'll be better prepared when he does get to the league.

But I'd also be honest with him and tell him that I don't think he is going to improve his status too much by coming back. He's going high either way, and if he really thinks he's ready, then I guess you've got to support him.

Bottom Line: When making this decision...

Can the player improve from a skills standpoint and a personal standpoint by coming back to school?

In the case of Michael Beasley, I'd say, he's ready. In the case of Blake Griffin, I'd say, he could use one more year.

[MojoRisen]

I agree with the above, in Football there is a lot more risk for injury at both levels and no guaranteed contract so it is a no brainer to leave early for the signing bonus.

I think he stands a good chance to improve his game and mature in the college life for another year with out a huge risk of injury. Keep in mind those BBall contracts are guaranteed so I really could not tell him not to go ahead and get his own coke machine and pinball machine and or whatever and enjoy the Miami Beach Scene. One more year here wouldn't be a huge risk at all and his upside for surviving in the NBA is a lot higher.

I can name a few players that were a couple of years and done in the NBA after leaving as a Frosh. Not saying that is Blake but it is an entirely different level especially for a 4 or 5.

[skycat]

If you're a lottery pick, you need to leave for the NBA. Period.

I'm not sure that i believe that he's a lottery pick right now though.

[SleestakSooner]

Dont know if you guys are just messin around or not but regardless, the 90% number is retarded. For a shooting guard perhaps close, for a 3,4, or 5 hell no! Not even close, and I played bball my whole life as well! Have you ever seen some of the NBA post players shoot?

I saw Odom shoot a potential game winning airball from about 8-feet last night... is that what you mean? Poor Lakers lost again.

[Big Red Ron]

Skull, that dude may be a Genius but he is stating the obvious on this one. I posted a Mock draft that had Blake #2 about two or three months ago and people said I was crazy.

[NormanPride]

Isn't Warren a 2? I didn't think he was projected as a PG in college...

[SleestakSooner]

Isn't Warren a 2? I didn't think he was projected as a PG in college...

He is a slasher and legit scoring threat from outside as well. We seriously need someone like that to compliment the inside game right now. None of the current guards have been good at penetrating w/o turning the ball over.

If he can pass the ball as well it's a bonus, but yes you are right about him being a 2.

[Shneeg11]

I know the subject is now Willie Warren, but Blake isn't leaving this year, his parents think another year of college will be good for him

[MojoRisen]

Dont know if you guys are just messin around or not but regardless, the 90% number is retarded. For a shooting guard perhaps close, for a 3,4, or 5 hell no! Not even close, and I played bball my whole life as well! Have you ever seen some of the NBA post players shoot?

I have seen a lot of old Knicks play live and in warm ups- could have been spoiled by Charles Oakley & Xavier McDaniel and Grandma Ma- as most of those guys in practice don't really miss at all- 90% may be a little high but 80% and better I don't think really is.

On that level- all they have too do is practice BBALL- no split in sports or school - just 15 foot Jumpers and post moves.

[Collier11]

I have seen a lot of old Knicks play live and in warm ups- could have been spoiled by Charles Oakley & Xavier McDaniel and Grandma Ma- as most of those guys in practice don't really miss at all- 90% may be a little high but 80% and better I don't think really is.

On that level- all they have too do is practice BBALL- no split in sports or school - just 15 foot Jumpers and post moves.

I see the point, I just thought the 90% number was a lil crazy