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ALL Things Tourney Related (RPI, Bracketology, etc.)

Discussion in 'Sooner Basketball' started by OUSKINS, Jan 15, 2009.


  1. OUSKINS

    OUSKINS New Member

    I started one of these last year, and it's never too early to look ahead to March :)

    Might as well start tracking a few things. Contrary to popular belief seeding DOES matter come Tourney time. There's a reason #1 and #2 seeds get to the Final Four more often than #5 or #6 seeds. They are obviously most likely better teams, but they also get an easier road come Dance time-- especially the #1 seeds.

    That's my goal for the Sooners...a #1 seed, with a #2 seed being a very acceptable consolation prize. #3 or below would disappoint me at this juncture.

    So, that's what I'm tracking. RPI matters big time when it comes to seeding--and that was a big reason we got a higher seed than many predicted last year: Our RPI was strong from the get-go.

    I will continue to post updates in this thread on related topcis...feel free to add and discuss.

    Right now, OU is #7 in the RPI behind Duke, Pitt, Clemson, Michigan St., UCONN, and Butler.

    Lunardi has us a #2 seed in Bracketology

    Bracketography also has us as a #2 seed.

    Ed Kleese (me) also currently has us as a #2 seed :)
     
  2. Sooner04

    Sooner04 New Member

    Hopefully Ed Kleese is better at picking NCAA Tournament seedings than he is NFL playoff games.

    :D
     
  3. John Kochtoston

    John Kochtoston CEO, Devastation, Inc.

    Are there people seriously arguing that seeding is irrelevant in the tournament?
     
  4. OUSKINS

    OUSKINS New Member

    It's been a brutal post-season. I stunk in the playoffs last year too though. :)
     
  5. 8timechamps

    8timechamps Administrator

    If we play through the regular season up to our ability, then our seed in the tourny will come down to our conference tourny play. Should we make it through regular season play with no or one loss (depending on who the loss is to), and win the conference tourny, I think we get a #1 seed.

    If we happen to drop a game to a Nebraska or Tech, I think that drops us to a #2.

    My super-early #1 seed projections are:

    Duke
    Pittsburgh
    Oklahoma
    North Carolina

    And here's why:

    Duke - They're Duke, isn't that enough? Seriously, I'm basing this early pick on my projecton of their conference play. I am going on a limb and assume they win the ACC. As long as they don't drop another game to an average or sub-par opponent (like Michigan), then they should be one of two teams out of the ACC to get a 1 seed.

    Pittsburgh- Am I the only one not fully sold on Pittsburgh? Although, the more I see them play, the more I am starting to believe. The biggest help Pitt has is that they are playing in a loaded conference this year. One they should dominate. We really won't know how good they really are until the last two weeks of the regular season. They go to Marquette and play a home and home against UConn. I think they come out of conferece with one loss and win the Big East tourny to secure a 1 seed.

    Wake Forest- This was a hard pick for me. There are really three ACC teams that could end up as a 1 seed (if you include NC). the reason I think Wake (and Duke) end up with the one seeds over NC is that I feel the tar Heels will drop at least one game Duke. Since NC has already lost to Wake, I think Wake and Duke get the 1 seeds. If NC somehow escapes with two losses (to Wake and Duke) and wins the ACC tourny, then swap NC with Duke.

    Oklahoma- Homer alert. It was an easy pick, but let me at least give you my reasoning. It's not completely out-of-bounds to think OU finishes regular season play undefeated. If that happens and we win the tourny, I think a 1 seed is a lock. It's still possible to drop one game (a road game to a ranked team in coference), win the tourny and get the 1 seed. It doens't hurt that the other three 1 seeds I projected are east coast teams. I think the committee will take that in to account, and assuming we finish with one or no losses, we get a #1 seed.

    Next four (or 2 seeds)

    North Carolina (or Duke if they fall to NC)
    UConn (I'm also not convinced that this couldn't be Syracuse, Yes...Syracuse).
    Michigan State
    UCLA
     
  6. Half a Hundred

    Half a Hundred New Member

    I can't think of any (knock on wood) 33-1 teams that weren't 1 seeds.
     
  7. OUSKINS

    OUSKINS New Member

    If we go 33-1, we'll be the overall #1 seed, book it. But that ain't happenin'. The more realistic question is if we go 13-3 in conference and then win the B12 tourney-- would that be good enough?
     
  8. Sooner04

    Sooner04 New Member

    Yep. 30-4 going into the tournament will get us a #1. The conference isn't good enough for us to go 12-4 and hope for a #1.

    You can't discount the pub that comes from having the POY on your team and how it affects your seed.
     
  9. 8timechamps

    8timechamps Administrator

    Yep! Two weeks ago, I was thinking that Blake (or better yet, the team) was playing himself out of contention for POY. Now, at about the mid-way point, he's right in the thick of things. Having a POY candidate on your team accounts for one loss (two, if both teams are ranked) in the eye of the committee.

    I'm not convinced that a 30-4 record would get us a #1 seed. Of course, the three additional losses could come to good teams. So, maybe if that were to happen PLUS we at least make it to the conference final, then I could see it.

    Like you said, we play in a weaker conference, and that doesn't help. What does help is some quality wins OOC. I think you mentioned it in one of your recaps that those wins, while feeling good, could/would pay dividends down the line.
     
  10. Sooner04

    Sooner04 New Member

    Here's another thought. Bad losses don't hurt you as much as good wins help you. If we go 13-3 in conference, but have a trip up (say we lose on the road in Stillwater) that's not going to hurt us as much as sweeping Texas will help us.

    They don't crow about bad losses unless you've got a few of them. We've got a number of good wins in front of a large audience, so we've put ourselves in a good position if we take care of our business.

    And one other thing: don't worry about the difference between a #1 and #2 seed. That's splitting hairs. The drop off after that to a #3 is steep when you take into consideration some of the teams you run the risk of seeing at #6.
     
  11. King Crimson

    King Crimson SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    look at how we get a 6 seed last year based on W's against Gonzaga, Arkansas, and West Virginia (with Moose)....in my mind we are two fluke plays away from NOT making the tournament if we lose at Tech and Baylor at home. 9-7 in conference is 7-9, all of a sudden. granted, we got what was supposed to be a sucker punch seed getting St. Joe's (see UW-Milwaukee a few years ago for a sucker punch seed)...and all the media climbed on the St. Joe's b-wagon.

    i think we'll lose a few conference games, but i saw on another board someone saying that ATM would make the NCAA with 8-8 or 9-7 in conference....because they'd have "20 wins easy". it's one of my irrational anger issues (along with Billy Sims spelled like Chris Simms, or "rediculous" or "dominate"=dominant) that people think 20 wins means something, anything. but, anyhoo, 9-7 is iffy NCAA-wise with the conference being pretty mediocre this year, IMO, for anybody. 8-8, might not even host an NIT game.

    depending on the W's and L's, i could see a team like ATM with a total patsy OOC or Missouri in the North (with 2-fers against CU, KSU, ISU, etc) miss the NCAA even with a 10-6 record in conference.

    that said, we better show up at Reed on Saturday because we are ticking clock until 60% FT's on the road catches up with us. a bad shooting night or Blake in foul trouble and we're done shooting 60% from the line.
     
  12. 8timechamps

    8timechamps Administrator

    Texas A&M will not make the big dance. Like I said erlier, they've got their record with smoke and mirrors. Sure, they beat Baylor, but that's yet to play out. Baylor could blow it over the next month. They'll lose to us, Texas, KU, (already) OSU, and possibly Tech.

    My irrational anger stems from the use of "Irregaurdless" and "For all intensive purposes".
     
  13. Sooner04

    Sooner04 New Member

    My point exactly. When we got that 6-seed, did you ever hear anybody talking about us losing to Stephen F. Austin at HOME?! Nope, not a word.

    Win you big ones, and you'll get grace on your hiccups.
     
  14. 8timechamps

    8timechamps Administrator

    I've always felt like anything below a 2 seed, and you're going to have to go to work early.
     
  15. King Crimson

    King Crimson SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    depends a little these days with the made for profit pod system. for instance, in Self's first year KU is a 6 seed playing in KC and STL. that's a great draw for a 2-3 seed?

    KU fans will tell you "the team was finally buying into Self's system" and making the second weekend didn't have anything to do with the home-courts...but the "buying into Self" Jayhawks lost 5 of their last 11 heading into the NCAA.

    so, you can see how the much vaunted "last 10 games" means vs. fannies in the seats and "name" programs/coaches means to the NCAA/networks.

    a year or two before that, CU had a better conference record, better rpi, and head to head W against Tech....and Knight/Tech gets in and Ricardo Patton and the Buffs sit at home.
     
  16. Sooner04

    Sooner04 New Member

    They were a 4. Still a bush league draw. I would've pulled for Red China in that Elite 8 game against Kansas. Thank God Georgia Tech pulled it out.

    Indubetedly!

    We benefitted from that exact science in '99. We're the last team in (a 13-seed no less) while Nebraska goes 10-6 in the Big 12 and sits at home. Nevermind that Nebraska came to Norman with Venson Hamilton and Cookie Belcher and beat the ever-living crap out of us. Nope, we go and they sit.

    Then we went to the Sweet 16. That's why I don't bet on sports. :)
     
  17. OUSKINS

    OUSKINS New Member

    Two points:

    1. Don't look now but OSU has the second best RPI in the Big 12. If they go 9-7, they will most likely get in.

    2. I agree that a #1 vs. a #2 is splitting hairs in the first two rounds, but generally, I think the #1 seeds have a big advantage come the Sweet 16. We all know that #12 seeds have fared well in the tourney in recent years, but those teams normally go down when facing the #1 seed.

    There is a decent recent history of a #1 seed getting a #16, #8-9, and then a #12 in the first three rounds.
     
  18. Sooner04

    Sooner04 New Member

    We did it in '03. The 12-seed was Butler. Two games in OKC and then a date with Butler in Albany.

    One of the all-time easiest Elite 8 paths there ever was.
     
  19. King Crimson

    King Crimson SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    i think KU lost in the Sweet 16.

    that Venson Hamilton game was a solid ***-kicking, i remember listening to that on the radio (you could get KOMA at night in Colorado). we lose to a bad ATM team in Collie Station to close out conference play and lose to the Pokes in the 2nd round of the conference tournament. Kelvin is on TV the saturday before "selection Sunday" begging to get in.
     
  20. Sooner04

    Sooner04 New Member

    Negative.

    W KU vs. Illinois-Chicago (78-53)
    W KU vs. Pacific (78-63)
    W KU vs. Alabama-Birmingham (100-74)
    L KU vs. Georgia Tech (79-71)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

    Don't question me on my NCAA Tournament knowledge, fool!. Mess with the bull ya get the horns. What do you think I did during college? Date? Please. :)
     

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