After Obama's Speech and Palin's addition, latest poll shows a dead heat

The latest nationwide survey by Zogby, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon (Saturday), shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

Apperently Palin's announcement killed any post convention bump expected by Obama or there never was one.

Anyway, looks like this one's going to the wire.

 

I could post the new Gallup numbers or you could be a man and do it yourself.

 

Or the Rasmussen numbers showing that 31% of undecideds think the Palin choice makes it less likely they'll vote for McCain and only 6% said it made them more likely.

But hey, Zogby shows that Palin's pick only resulted in McCain losing half of his lead that only they showed.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/undecideds-dont.html

 

Some of the Republican naysayers are starting to come out, here is a article by David Frum who was Bush's former speech writer.

http://www.nationalpost.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=756704

 

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/0...lins-qualifications-while-obama-expands-lead/

Plus, a signficant number of likely voters doubt Palin's ability to be POUS. And the link is from Foxnews, so it must be accurate, right?

It probably pains a lot of folks on this board, but Obama's speech was out of this world, a huge hit, and he is probably going to be elected POUS. If your source of news is listening to the right wing pundits, you might not agree, but it sure is looking this way.

 

Yup, Brack's purty speech locked it up.

 

I think the most important poll numbers will be those of the second week of October. Whomever has a commanding lead in the average of the national polls (I like "realclearpolitics.com" for that reason) will prolly win. If it's still tight then, I think JSM will win because the GOP has consistently done a better job of getting out the vote. If BHO is running more than 10 points ahead at the end of that week, it'll mean curtains for JSM.

and yes, feel free to throw this back up in my face at that time.

Also, as a JSM/SHP guy, I am concerned that these polls generally don't reach those without landlines. The under 35 crowd (the heart and soul of BHO's base) who typically only have cell phones don't get polled. Thus, polling could be skewed favoring JSM.

A lot of those people will give money to BHO because they can do that with only about three clicks and a credit card on BHO's webpage, but they don't bother voting because they have to get off the couch and do that in person. Therefore, polling skewed in favor of JSM may not matter much in the final analysis in terms of its predictive accuracy.

 

you're asking for a lot there......


Gallup Daily: Obama-Biden Ticket Leads by 6 Points:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/Gallup-Daily-ObamaBiden-Ticket-Leads-Points.aspx

 

i really thought MCain would pick Romney. that would have made Limbaugh and the FOX heavy hitting pundits happy and mobilize the cause. unexciting, yes....but probably the better strategy play.

i kinda like the Palin pick though. on the negative, it seems to nullify the "experience" issue some (and that's the main talking point)... as i mentioned before seems to forefront (or accept) the "change" idea as the animus or zeitgeist of the remaining campaign. that would seem to favor Obama as the one dictating the language in play or terms of debate.

 

Nope, the bad/unpopular current administration, bad economy, bad foreign policy, lots more money for Obama than McCain, bad VP choice by McCain, and Obama's dynamic personality make it likely he will win. Obama didn't get this far by accident. People look for leaders who inspire, and he has it. His speech was a mere manifestation of this rare quality.

 

that's hard to say, Dukakis had a big lead and Kerry and Gore were both projecting as winners (by semi-comfortable margins) about that late and later. IIRC.

 

What has he led before?

 

I've been hitting RCP.com pretty hard as well. I like having the poll snapshots right there, though the averages are somewhat meaningless considering the wide disparity in sample sizes and methodologies.

 

You point out a very important fact of life in American politics. The only numbers that really matter are the numbers in the big swing states. As we all know, even a 15 point lead among the total population can be meaningless if the guy with fewer total voters supporting him can garner more electoral votes than the other guy. Put another way, if a guy has 95% of the voters in five of the most populous states, but the other guy has 51% support in most of the rest, that guy wins. I just haven't found a poll I trust that targets those states.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

On August 25, the first day of the DNC, RealClearPolitics showed an Obama lead of 1.6 percent (45.5 to 43.9). On August 29, the day after the convention, the lead had grown to just 3.9 percent (47.8 to 43.9).

Only a 2.3 percent bounce, following the greatest speech ever given in the history of mankind. I'm guessing the Dems were hoping for a bigger lead by now. We'll see what happens after McCain speaks on Thursday, but I'm expecting this one to be razor-close all the way to the finish.

 

Obama? Does it matter? See, to me, being President is far more about being intelligent enough to surround yourself with highly qualified, trustworthy advisors, and being able to represent the US well.

I'm still undecided here, but the Republicans certainly do NOT have a good track record on "highly qualified, trustworthy advisors."

 

I think they're pretty disappointed in their post convention bounce or lack thereof. Otherwise I think they'd be talking that up more and less about what a "rotten" choice Palin is.

 

I don't disagree with you, but if someone wants to talk about Brack as a leader, well tell me - what has he led?

 

Chirp Chirp. Dude, they can't.