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After Obama's Speech and Palin's addition, latest poll shows a dead heat

Discussion in 'TrumpFest 2016' started by Big Red Ron, Aug 31, 2008.

  1. Big Red Ron

    Big Red Ron SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    The latest nationwide survey by Zogby, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon (Saturday), shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

    Apperently Palin's announcement killed any post convention bump expected by Obama or there never was one.

    Anyway, looks like this one's going to the wire.
  2. JohnnyMack

    JohnnyMack SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    I could post the new Gallup numbers or you could be a man and do it yourself. :)
  3. Frozen Sooner

    Frozen Sooner Soon to be Memphibian

    Last edited: Aug 31, 2008
  4. Mandibleclaw

    Mandibleclaw New Member

  5. Frozen Sooner

    Frozen Sooner Soon to be Memphibian

  6. lexsooner

    lexsooner Well-Known Member


    Plus, a signficant number of likely voters doubt Palin's ability to be POUS. And the link is from Foxnews, so it must be accurate, right?

    It probably pains a lot of folks on this board, but Obama's speech was out of this world, a huge hit, and he is probably going to be elected POUS. If your source of news is listening to the right wing pundits, you might not agree, but it sure is looking this way.
  7. Curly Bill

    Curly Bill I'm a shootist

    Yup, Brack's purty speech locked it up. :rolleyes:
  8. Okla-homey

    Okla-homey SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    I think the most important poll numbers will be those of the second week of October. Whomever has a commanding lead in the average of the national polls (I like "realclearpolitics.com" for that reason) will prolly win. If it's still tight then, I think JSM will win because the GOP has consistently done a better job of getting out the vote. If BHO is running more than 10 points ahead at the end of that week, it'll mean curtains for JSM.

    and yes, feel free to throw this back up in my face at that time.

    Also, as a JSM/SHP guy, I am concerned that these polls generally don't reach those without landlines. The under 35 crowd (the heart and soul of BHO's base) who typically only have cell phones don't get polled. Thus, polling could be skewed favoring JSM.

    A lot of those people will give money to BHO because they can do that with only about three clicks and a credit card on BHO's webpage, but they don't bother voting because they have to get off the couch and do that in person. Therefore, polling skewed in favor of JSM may not matter much in the final analysis in terms of its predictive accuracy.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2008

    KC//CRIMSON New Member

  10. King Crimson

    King Crimson SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    i really thought MCain would pick Romney. that would have made Limbaugh and the FOX heavy hitting pundits happy and mobilize the cause. unexciting, yes....but probably the better strategy play.

    i kinda like the Palin pick though. on the negative, it seems to nullify the "experience" issue some (and that's the main talking point)... as i mentioned before seems to forefront (or accept) the "change" idea as the animus or zeitgeist of the remaining campaign. that would seem to favor Obama as the one dictating the language in play or terms of debate.
  11. lexsooner

    lexsooner Well-Known Member

    Nope, the bad/unpopular current administration, bad economy, bad foreign policy, lots more money for Obama than McCain, bad VP choice by McCain, and Obama's dynamic personality make it likely he will win. Obama didn't get this far by accident. People look for leaders who inspire, and he has it. His speech was a mere manifestation of this rare quality.
  12. King Crimson

    King Crimson SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    that's hard to say, Dukakis had a big lead and Kerry and Gore were both projecting as winners (by semi-comfortable margins) about that late and later. IIRC.
  13. Curly Bill

    Curly Bill I'm a shootist

    What has he led before?
  14. Frozen Sooner

    Frozen Sooner Soon to be Memphibian

    I've been hitting RCP.com pretty hard as well. I like having the poll snapshots right there, though the averages are somewhat meaningless considering the wide disparity in sample sizes and methodologies.
  15. Okla-homey

    Okla-homey SoonerFans.com Elite Member

    You point out a very important fact of life in American politics. The only numbers that really matter are the numbers in the big swing states. As we all know, even a 15 point lead among the total population can be meaningless if the guy with fewer total voters supporting him can garner more electoral votes than the other guy. Put another way, if a guy has 95% of the voters in five of the most populous states, but the other guy has 51% support in most of the rest, that guy wins. I just haven't found a poll I trust that targets those states.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2008
  16. Sooner98

    Sooner98 New Member


    On August 25, the first day of the DNC, RealClearPolitics showed an Obama lead of 1.6 percent (45.5 to 43.9). On August 29, the day after the convention, the lead had grown to just 3.9 percent (47.8 to 43.9).

    Only a 2.3 percent bounce, following the greatest speech ever given in the history of mankind. I'm guessing the Dems were hoping for a bigger lead by now. We'll see what happens after McCain speaks on Thursday, but I'm expecting this one to be razor-close all the way to the finish.
  17. GottaHavePride

    GottaHavePride Brewmaster

    Obama? Does it matter? See, to me, being President is far more about being intelligent enough to surround yourself with highly qualified, trustworthy advisors, and being able to represent the US well.

    I'm still undecided here, but the Republicans certainly do NOT have a good track record on "highly qualified, trustworthy advisors."
    Cam likes this.
  18. Curly Bill

    Curly Bill I'm a shootist

    I think they're pretty disappointed in their post convention bounce or lack thereof. Otherwise I think they'd be talking that up more and less about what a "rotten" choice Palin is.
  19. Curly Bill

    Curly Bill I'm a shootist

    I don't disagree with you, but if someone wants to talk about Brack as a leader, well tell me - what has he led?
    Big Red Ron likes this.
  20. r5TPsooner

    r5TPsooner New Member

    Chirp Chirp. Dude, they can't.
    Big Red Ron and Curly Bill like this.

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