http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/25403209/playing-out-the-college-football-playoff-oklahoma-beats-alabama Playing out the College Football Playoff: Sooners top Tide for title Oklahoma should be the favorite to win the College Football Playoff. (USATSI) Dennis Dodd CBSSports.com Follow Dennis Playing out the College Football Playoff: Sooners top Tide for title December 6, 2015 2:12 pm ET Let's make this clear once again. No. 1 doesn't matter. Clemson enters the second College Football Playoff on top of the rankings -- and the world judging by that mass pizza party in Tiger Stadium -- but ask Alabama what a top ranking means. A year ago, the Tide were rolling. In some spaces, they were the prohibitive favorite to win the first playoff. How'd that work out? Nick Saban is still lamenting the “noise” (i.e. looming NFL Draft) as the main reason the No. 1 Tide of 2014 lost focus in December. So let's diminish the importance of the Tigers' seed going into the Orange Bowl semifinal on New Year's Eve. It's a label that will only mean something if they back it up. Simple math tells you it's harder to win two games than one. There's the regular season. Then there's the tournament. March Madness meet December Delirium. Clemson doesn't get a break from any of that just because it is undefeated. In fact, the target on the Tigers' back is as big and wide as that Death Valley ramp adorned by Howard's Rock. Suddenly, it's not what the CFP Selection Committee thinks you are, it's what you can actually do. A case can be made, then, for any of the four participants in this season's bold, new bracketed world. Cotton Bowl semifinalists Alabama and Michigan State specialize in bludgeoning. Oklahoma has won seven in a row -- five of those by at least 35 points -- emerging from the overtly offensive Big 12 to play the conference's best defense. Clemson is one part Dabo inspiration, one part unstoppable Deshaun Watson and one part destiny. The Tigers continue to chase the ghost of their last national championship in 1981. The Football Four are different, diverse, determined. Any of them can win it. Only Oklahoma will. That's the view from the second Selection Sunday of the College Football Playoff era. The Sooners are the most complete team left in the tournament. They're hot, they're rested, they're hungry. Orange Bowl semifinal: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma It's hard to view the Sooners of Wilkinson and Switzer as underdogs, but in this playoff, they are. Don't be surprised if the lowest seed is playing at the highest level. It's already happened once (see: Ohio State). “There were people in the room [thinking], after all this, Oklahoma could be the best team,” said Jeff Long, the committee chairman. “I could tell you there were people in the room that thought Oklahoma was the No. 1 team.” The Sooners got here with quarterback Baker Mayfield running rings around the opposition and defying convention. An undersized two-time walk-on isn't supposed to play for a national championship. By comparison, Clemson's Deshaun Watson looks practically immobile. Bob Stoops replaced three coaches in the offseason. Offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley assembled the only offense in the bracket in the top 20 in rushing and passing. Motivations will be revealed in the playoff. No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 1 Clemson will meet each other 54 weeks after the Tigers handed the Sooners their second-worst bowl loss (40-6) in the Russell Athletic Bowl. “We're not that much better than Oklahoma, but that day we were,” Swinney said. “We know we'll get a much better opponent this year.” But Swinney has also crowed, “Anybody else got three top 10 wins?” Don't get full of yourself, coach. Oklahoma beat three in the top 18 in consecutive weeks (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State) -- not to mention No. 25 at Tennessee. Cotton Bowl semifinal: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State Michigan State has wins over Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State and handed Iowa its first loss. If Alabama hasn't truly been tested -- as many believe in a watered-down SEC -- then you better believe a challenge is coming from the Spartans. They bathe in motivation. Coach Mark Dantonio practically cringed Friday when asked if his program was a “blue blood." “I hope not,” he said. Motivation? Saban is the standard in East Lansing. Michigan State is where Saban warmed up (1995-99) before jumping to LSU. Dantonio was his defensive backs coach all five seasons Saban was there. National Championship (Predicted): No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma If the Tide make it to the title game, as I expect, then I want to see Oklahoma's Sterling Shepard running a 9-route against Alabama's back four. I want to see tailbacks Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon testing Alabama's monstrous front seven. I also want to see linebacker OU's Eric Striker put pressure on Jacob Coker. That's really the key in any Bama-Oklahoma championship matchup: Put some pressure on the fifth-year senior who made his first career start this season. Like Blake Sims before him, Coker -- a fifth-year senior -- made his first career start this season. Coker was no Sims, but give Lane Kiffin credit for massaging a career backup into becoming Alabama's starting quarterback. That's getting ahead of the story. For now, the lines have been drawn. Sooners than later, Stoops will have to address his remarks about SEC excellence being “propaganda.” He's tired of it. Heck, I'm tired of it but we need something to fill the pregnant pause between now and New Year's Eve. The Sooners have been a tease for a large part of the 15 years since winning Stoops' one and only national championship. He carries his ninth conference title (in 17 years) into the playoff. *** That means little at tournament time. Things change. As you read this, each of the four coaches have an army of analysts pouring over tape. They're looking at not only the Dec. 31 opponent but a possible national championship game foe. Weaknesses will be exposed. Injuries will be hidden. Michigan State's Connor Cook actually admitted that his sprained shoulder was still bothering him in Saturday night's Big Ten title game. Oklahoma, without having to play a conference championship game, will have the most rest. Who will blink first: Michigan State's offensive line that ran 22 consecutive plays to beat Iowa or Alabama's Derrick Henry, who deserves to sleep until Tuesday? (He has a combined 90 carries in the last two games.) With some rest, perhaps the man who broke Herschel Walker's single-season SEC rushing record can only get stronger. Common opponents of the four: Stress. Michigan State went 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Oklahoma overcame what might be the worst loss of the four playoff participants -- a still inexplicable 24-17 clunker to Texas in October. Speaking of inexplicable: The Alabama dynasty was declared dead after a home loss to Ole Miss aided by five turnovers. Clemson won four games by eight points or less. History can scream itself hoarse. Only three times since 2004 has the No. 1 team in the final BCS/CFP Rankings won it all. As the nation's only undefeated team, Clemson could win it all but -- as of now -- a whole new set of rules takes effect. In the playoff era, it is how teams will be judged. Their seasons, their reputations, will be shaped by how they prepare and perform in the next 25 days. And for two teams, 11 days beyond that into January. “Nobody's going to give us respect,” Swinney concluded, “until we earn it.”
Not just CBS...I've seen two others....FiveThirtyEight and Prediction Machine. Both of them ran computer simulations (50000 each) for the games and OU came out at the top for both predictors. Having said that, I'd rather see mixed or even dawgs. I appreciate the respect OU is getting but not TOO much, though.
Nor should you - and the footballs gods agree. Besides, we did beat a UT this year and they were wearing orange.
