I'm sure that is comforting to the average Cypriot of whom you were speaking... The Russians with real means had their money safely in Dubai before the vote was ever taken...
I think all of this was a bluff and a shot fired over the bow of Cyprus by the ECB/EU to tell them to get their **** in order. That includes getting rid of some level of corruption and gangster Russian money.
And what a financial boon this will be to the Cayman banks. Do I see an uptick in Russian travel to the Caribbean in the near future?
What happens now is that the national bank will fail, likely causing entitlements and other obligations of the government to go unfunded. There'll be a run on the bank and Cypriots are going to feel pretty bad for not voting for this thing when they lose all of their savings. I understand the EU guarantees accounts up to 100K Euros.
To get the bailout money they need 7 billion US in cash from somewhere... If they don't then Germany won't agree and then Mid's take hits the road running...
[video=youtube;JMf_KwQ2Xlk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=JMf_KwQ2Xlk[/video]
Rich people can act in ways that regular folks can only dream of. I would call it a universal truth or common sense.. Talk of Russian oil companies bailing out the banks in exchange for gas rights means that while you think the 10% rule would stick it to those rich Russians, the actual end result is those Russians may actually get richer just from the proposal of the 10% rule. Unintended consequences...
In that video a few posts up they mentioned that in 2010 deposits into Cyprus banks from Britain were almost double that of Russia. One of the men speaking is a libertarian leaning British Member of European Parliament. (Nigel Farage) He makes his position clear: get your money out of Southern European banks; you've got to be mad to invest in the Euro Zone. Talk about contagion.