Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 2/2/13)

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/16/13)

No surprise (as OU has been out of the race for months), Josh Augusta to Missouri.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/21/13)

some people care way too much about Star ratings...for every 5 star that has panned out as a superstar, there have been 5 two and three stars that have done so

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/21/13)

Here is what bothers me.

Class of 09 was ranked 13th..of the 23 signed, 11 didn't finish their eligiblity here..only 2 of those was guys leaving early for NFL..I don't care about stars..I just want guys who want to be at OU.

 

Interesting number looking at some Alabama numbers

Of the 27 Alabama players drafted since 2007, 16 were ranked 3-stars or lower as recruits by either Rivals or Scout.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/21/13)

I've started a side project; I'm going back and looking at guys that were recruited by OU, and I'm looking at three things:

1. From the time they were offered, how long did it take them to commit. I want to see if there is any correlation to late offers/missing on guys.

2. What the average recruit ranking was per position (in BCS title game years).

3. Looking at guys rated 3 stars, or below, who else offered and how did they turn out.

I suspect I'm going to find exactly what you mentioned. 3 star players ultimately make a team what it is, which isn't a far stretch considering there are more 3 star guys...but, it'll still be interesting.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/16/13)

Committed.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/21/13)

While this is interesting, it still doesn't really let us compare 3-stars vs. 4-stars vs. 5-stars. There are obviously a much higher amount of 3-star players than 5-star players, so to be able to really understand this it seems that we need percentages. What I would like to see is what percentage of 5-star players go on to be drafted, what percentage of 4-star players, etc. Just going by number of players seems useless to me.

I'm not arguing, maybe 3-star recruits are more likely to get drafted than 5-star. I'm just saying you can't make that point with those numbers.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/21/13)

Follow Up Post:

So I had nothing better to do here at work, so I crunched some numbers. I used scout and took the total number of 5-stars, 4-stars, etc recruited from 2002 to 2008, since those that got drafted since 2007 were in those classes. I had to take out Trent Richardson from the analysis, since he is from a recruiting class (2009) where most of the players will get drafted in the 2013 class. I also added one player that was drafted in 2006 since he was in the 2002 class. The player I took out was a 5 star and the player I added was unranked, so me doing this should actually bolster the numbers in the other direction (supporting the argument that 3-star players are just as likely or more likely to get drafted as 5-star players).

Here are the results. From 2002 to 2008, Alabama had 5 five-star recruits, 40 four-star recruits, 76 three-star recruits, 36 two-star recruits, and 17 unranked recruits. This means that 14 were ranked 3-star or lower. (Perhaps the article used rivals, where it was 16 players?) Still, 14 out of 27 players, that's a lot, right?

Lets take a look at it another way. This way is more telling.

Since 2002, Alabama has recruited 5 players with 5 stars, not including Trent Richardson. Of these 5, 4 of them were drafted. 80% of 5-star players got drafted.

Since 2002, Alabama has recruited 40 players with 4 stars. Of these, 9 were drafted. 23% of 4-star players got drafted.

Since 2002, Alabama has recruited 76 players with 3 stars. Of these, 8 were drafted. 11% of 3-star players got drafted.

And you get the point. If anyone can see any glaring problems I made with my maths, let me know. I'm no math whiz, though I think this is basically correct. Now obviously, using the draft as an indicator for how good players turn out to be in college might be slightly dubious, since some players can be great in college, but not have skills that transfer into draft status for whatever reason. A better measure might be to go by percentage of 3-star players that made all-conference or something like that. Those players mentioned above were probably mostly ranked 5 stars by scout because of their height, weight, speed, etc. Likewise, they were probably drafted high years later largely because of physical measurements.

I still think though that it's a little absurd to imply that 3-star recruits turn out just as well on average as 5-star recruits, or even better. The numbers just don't add up. Of course, rivals or scout will never be perfect in scouting how well a player will be. It's obviously way too complicated to be perfect on having to be all-knowing about the HS player's character, how he'll develop, and everything else. But there's still a decent correlation between how good scout or rivals thinks a HS player is and how good he will turn out. You could make a good argument that people shouldn't freak out too much, since there are always plenty of 3-star and even 2-star players than go on to the NFL (Interestingly, the numbers showed that 11% of their 2-star players were drafted, same as 3-star). But it's not absurd to be concerned to some extent with an OU recruiting class with a higher percentage of 3-stars than normal.

Edit: And in telling fashion, the one 5-star recruit out of 5 (or 6 if you count Richardson) that did not get drafted gets used in a Bleacher Report article as proof (yes, that word is in the title) as how stars are not worth anything because of "all the busts," even though 5 of 6 being drafted should, if anything, be used to prove the opposite point. Funny stuff.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/21/13)

Looking at Romar I've seen 6' 2" or 6' 3", 265-275. It'll be good for him to gain some size the first year. However, he shows nice strength and real quickness. I'm excited about this pick up. Let's hope that all 4 DT's make it in this Summer.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/21/13)

Still nothing official on Romar...will update when I see something.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/29/13)

Still hasn't been confirmed, but I'm adding Matthew Romar as committed.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/29/13)

Rivals shows him.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/29/13)

It was confirmed earlier today, but I haven't had a chance to get on and post until now. That makes four for this class, surely one of these kids is a stud.

 

So with us. Moving to a 3-4 how does this affect our numbers? I imagine a bunch of d ends are becoming olb and d tackles move outside...

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/29/13)

Don't call me Shirley!

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/21/13)

I felt it better not to contain your quote (length), which was very informative. However, we are talking about college players here. Some guys coast through college or have careers that were not significant and they get drafted all the time. One person that comes to mind is Chris Chester. I remember many being surprised that he was drafted, let alone in the 2nd round. He was, by no means, a monster in the middle for us. He was good/serviceable. He was drafted in the 2nd round due to how he graded for the scouts on pro days/combine and he could play C/G. Do we want a team of Chesters? I'm not sure. We still lost games when he was on the roster. Yeah, I know that makes no sense... but whatever.
What if McFarland blows them away in the weeks leading to the draft and goes in the first 3-4 rounds? Are we going to say, "Thank God we had Jamarkus all those years!" ?
Hell, look at Matt Cassel for further proof as to a player's worth to his college team vs. draft status...

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/29/13)

My dad says you don't work hard enough on defense. And he says that lots of times, you don't even run down court. And that you don't really try except during the playoffs.

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/29/13)

Have you ever seen a Turkish Prison?

Boomer

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/29/13)

Also: Give me Ham on 5 and hold the Mayo...

Boomer

 

Re: Defensive Tackle Recruits (updated: 1/29/13)

Roger, Roger.