SoonerBOI
9/12/2007, 08:38 PM
Just want to share this article from CNNSI mailbag.
There is so much I share in common with my readers -- our mutual love of college football, our shared contempt for Lou Holtz's "analysis," our refined taste in beautiful television actresses -- yet there is one area in which we could not be more different. I tend to live my life day to day, week to week. I tend to avoid making plans any further ahead of time than absolutely necessary. In fact as I'm writing this sentence, at 3:24 p.m. on Tuesday, I have no idea what my dinner will consist of this evening.
You guys, on the other hand, like to look way down the road. Your most common questions this week involve a hypothetical, three-team national title dilemma that is still 12 weeks from maybe, possibly coming to fruition; a rumored coaching change that may or may not take place, because of another school's coaching change that may or may not take place (but probably will); and, in the case of a pressing, non-football related Mailbag development of which many of you e-mailed me, a theoretical romantic possibility that is so remote and so far down the road it barely merits my response (though of course I have one).
First things first.
I know you don't like "What If" scenarios this early in the season, but this season already feels eerily like 2003. So it must be asked ... what if we end up with USC, LSU and Oklahoma all undefeated and wanting into the national championship game? Could a bad memory from 2003 push OU out in favor of LSU and USC?
--Nate, Kansas City
I must admit, the irony of this week's top three was not lost on me -- not only that it's those same three teams from the 2003 controversy, but that they're ranked in the exact order that most of the public would have preferred the BCS computers to spit out at the end of that regular season, when the Sooners lost 35-7 to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game but somehow remained No. 1.
But I wouldn't waste too much time worrying about that scenario, because I predict -- check that, I guarantee -- that at least two of those teams will suffer a loss. That's not necessarily an indictment against those teams as much as a testament to their arduous schedules. In fact, if I had to put percentage estimates on each team's chance of losing a game, it would be:
USC: 80 percent. As I wrote last weekend, it's becoming increasingly apparent that the Trojans' schedule is much tougher than originally anticipated, what with road trips to (using SI.com's power rankings) No. 8 Cal, No. 11 Nebraska, No. 17 Oregon, No. 24 Washington and No. 27 Arizona State, plus No. 12 UCLA at home.
This year's Trojans are stacked, but certainly not invincible, and in fact, in light of Michigan's much-chronicled defensive woes -- considering much of USC's preseason status was based on its own depantsing of Michigan's D in last year's Rose Bowl -- I'm starting to fear we the voters were too presumptuous in anointing the Trojans No. 1. We'll find out soon enough.
Oklahoma: 60 percent. You can't be anything but wowed by the Sooners' performances so far, but in Bob Stoops' tenure, only two of his teams have made it through the regular season undefeated. One was the 2000 national title squad. The other was a 2004 team that feasted on a Big 12 that was in the process of hitting rock bottom (a very mediocre Colorado team won the North division) and was promptly exposed by USC in the Orange Bowl, 55-19.
The Big 12 is headed back in the right direction now. Besides Texas, the league's one other constant this decade, the Sooners will face several legitimate challenges, including potentially Nebraska or Missouri (whom OU faces at home Oct. 13) if they were to reach the conference title game. Can Sam Bradford really go unscathed for 13 straight games? Possibly, but not likely.
LSU: 40 percent. After watching the Tigers' all-out dominance of Virginia Tech in person last week, it's admittedly hard to envision much of anyone holding a candle to LSU during the regular season, but in this year's SEC, it would be naïve to assume even the ultra-talented Tigers are untouchable. They do catch a break in that their toughest remaining opponents on paper -- South Carolina, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas -- all come to Baton Rouge, but that's still a lot to go though, especially when you add road trips to Alabama and Kentucky and a possible SEC title game.
Now, all of that said, it's entirely conceivable that the Trojans could lose a game early and still rise back into contention. In fact, that's exactly what they did in '03, losing to Cal in late September only to make it all the way to No. 1 in the two major polls by the end of the year. In the same vein, LSU also beat a murderer's row of SEC opponents that season only to suffer its one loss in unexpected fashion, at home to an eventual 8-5, Ron Zook-led Florida team. And just as part of me doubts whether Bradford will continue to play well the entire season, I remember having the same exact thoughts about then-unproven Jason White early in that '03 season as well.
So maybe it is déjà vu all over again. Whatever happens, let's just hope LSU doesn't end up having to share another title. The sheer volume of angst that would emanate out of Louisiana would be enough to send the entire country into a depression.
Of course, if you believe the word on the street, Tigers fans (whom, incidentally, could not have been nicer hosts to the visiting media folk like myself last weekend) already have another nightmare scenario to fret about.
There is so much I share in common with my readers -- our mutual love of college football, our shared contempt for Lou Holtz's "analysis," our refined taste in beautiful television actresses -- yet there is one area in which we could not be more different. I tend to live my life day to day, week to week. I tend to avoid making plans any further ahead of time than absolutely necessary. In fact as I'm writing this sentence, at 3:24 p.m. on Tuesday, I have no idea what my dinner will consist of this evening.
You guys, on the other hand, like to look way down the road. Your most common questions this week involve a hypothetical, three-team national title dilemma that is still 12 weeks from maybe, possibly coming to fruition; a rumored coaching change that may or may not take place, because of another school's coaching change that may or may not take place (but probably will); and, in the case of a pressing, non-football related Mailbag development of which many of you e-mailed me, a theoretical romantic possibility that is so remote and so far down the road it barely merits my response (though of course I have one).
First things first.
I know you don't like "What If" scenarios this early in the season, but this season already feels eerily like 2003. So it must be asked ... what if we end up with USC, LSU and Oklahoma all undefeated and wanting into the national championship game? Could a bad memory from 2003 push OU out in favor of LSU and USC?
--Nate, Kansas City
I must admit, the irony of this week's top three was not lost on me -- not only that it's those same three teams from the 2003 controversy, but that they're ranked in the exact order that most of the public would have preferred the BCS computers to spit out at the end of that regular season, when the Sooners lost 35-7 to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game but somehow remained No. 1.
But I wouldn't waste too much time worrying about that scenario, because I predict -- check that, I guarantee -- that at least two of those teams will suffer a loss. That's not necessarily an indictment against those teams as much as a testament to their arduous schedules. In fact, if I had to put percentage estimates on each team's chance of losing a game, it would be:
USC: 80 percent. As I wrote last weekend, it's becoming increasingly apparent that the Trojans' schedule is much tougher than originally anticipated, what with road trips to (using SI.com's power rankings) No. 8 Cal, No. 11 Nebraska, No. 17 Oregon, No. 24 Washington and No. 27 Arizona State, plus No. 12 UCLA at home.
This year's Trojans are stacked, but certainly not invincible, and in fact, in light of Michigan's much-chronicled defensive woes -- considering much of USC's preseason status was based on its own depantsing of Michigan's D in last year's Rose Bowl -- I'm starting to fear we the voters were too presumptuous in anointing the Trojans No. 1. We'll find out soon enough.
Oklahoma: 60 percent. You can't be anything but wowed by the Sooners' performances so far, but in Bob Stoops' tenure, only two of his teams have made it through the regular season undefeated. One was the 2000 national title squad. The other was a 2004 team that feasted on a Big 12 that was in the process of hitting rock bottom (a very mediocre Colorado team won the North division) and was promptly exposed by USC in the Orange Bowl, 55-19.
The Big 12 is headed back in the right direction now. Besides Texas, the league's one other constant this decade, the Sooners will face several legitimate challenges, including potentially Nebraska or Missouri (whom OU faces at home Oct. 13) if they were to reach the conference title game. Can Sam Bradford really go unscathed for 13 straight games? Possibly, but not likely.
LSU: 40 percent. After watching the Tigers' all-out dominance of Virginia Tech in person last week, it's admittedly hard to envision much of anyone holding a candle to LSU during the regular season, but in this year's SEC, it would be naïve to assume even the ultra-talented Tigers are untouchable. They do catch a break in that their toughest remaining opponents on paper -- South Carolina, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas -- all come to Baton Rouge, but that's still a lot to go though, especially when you add road trips to Alabama and Kentucky and a possible SEC title game.
Now, all of that said, it's entirely conceivable that the Trojans could lose a game early and still rise back into contention. In fact, that's exactly what they did in '03, losing to Cal in late September only to make it all the way to No. 1 in the two major polls by the end of the year. In the same vein, LSU also beat a murderer's row of SEC opponents that season only to suffer its one loss in unexpected fashion, at home to an eventual 8-5, Ron Zook-led Florida team. And just as part of me doubts whether Bradford will continue to play well the entire season, I remember having the same exact thoughts about then-unproven Jason White early in that '03 season as well.
So maybe it is déjà vu all over again. Whatever happens, let's just hope LSU doesn't end up having to share another title. The sheer volume of angst that would emanate out of Louisiana would be enough to send the entire country into a depression.
Of course, if you believe the word on the street, Tigers fans (whom, incidentally, could not have been nicer hosts to the visiting media folk like myself last weekend) already have another nightmare scenario to fret about.