Oldnslo
8/31/2007, 09:28 AM
More smoke from a smoldering fire.
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/7174648?MSNHPHMA
On Saturday evening, USC football will inaugurate its 2007 campaign with a ritual beating of Idaho at the Los Angeles Coliseum. The Trojans will have to win by a margin of 48 that's six touchdowns, plus a couple of field goals for one to make money betting the home team.
"A complete mismatch," says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a group of very smart guys who supply the opening lines for the Nevada casinos. "Of the 119 Division I-A teams, that's about the widest margin you could have."
Seba, whose judgment in these matters is smarter and more sober than the aggregate wisdom of all fans and sportswriters combined, thought about it for a moment before reconsidering. "Well, maybe if they played FIU," he said. "That could get it up to around 50."
OK, the point is well taken. But in a larger context, on the eve of another college football season, the Idaho game is but a mathematical curiosity. Yes, Pete Carroll's team is so good as to test the limits of statistical probability. But more than that, the Trojans are already being considered in dynastic terms. Last month, Stanford's Jim Harbaugh, already a lock for honors as the NCAA's most quotable coach, declared: "There is no question in my mind that USC is the best team in the country and may be the best team in the history of college football."
Carroll's Trojans won the BCS championship after the 2004 season, beating Oklahoma 55-19. The year before, the Associated Press declaring them champions of college football. They concluded last season, an off-year, by decimating No. 3 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. For five straight years now, they have won the Pac-10 and finished no worse than fourth in the country. This season might well be their best.
"Obviously we have them favored to win it all," says Seba, "They're a clear-cut number one." Of 65 possible first-place votes in the pre-season AP poll, the Trojans received 62.
USC stockpiles talent like the U.S. and the Soviets once stockpiled nuclear warheads. Carroll's down to a mere 10 tailbacks now that Emmanuel Moody, the second-leading rusher on last year's team, has transferred to Florida. How's that? The guy had to go to the defending national champions to get some playing time. Then again, Southern Cal is still a lot more talented at linebacker than tailback.
Carroll's roster might be an embarrassment of riches, but other embarrassments lurk as well. And one of them threatens the Trojan dynasty itself.
In April, 2006, Yahoo! Sports began reporting spectacularly detailed allegations that Heisman trophy winner Reggie Bush, his mother and stepfather received illicit benefits (not the least of which was a rent-free house in the San Diego area) from would-be agents and marketing reps seeking Bush as a client. Some months later, another piece by Charles Robinson and Jason Cole for Yahoo! Sports put the tab at more than $100,000. The alleged violations go back to 2004, meaning that USC could possibly have to vacate a national championship, thereby diminishing its dynastic status.
The Bush camp has steadfastly maintained its innocence. The NCAA, despite all its resources and alleged investigative might, has had less success than reporters Robinson and Cole. Yesterday, in lieu of a real update, I got this statement: "The NCAA continues to investigate this matter in conjunction with the institution and the conference; however, it has been difficult to obtain cooperation from those involved."
If I were really cynical, I'd note that Reggie Bush who, in theory, could not be compensated while playing in college is featured on the box cover of the Electronic Arts game NCAA Football 07. (Unlike the student-athletes, of course, the NCAA doesn't play for free.) Still, ironies aside, one wonders what the NCAA has been doing all this time.
Oklahoma, for example, has been severely punished for "a failure to monitor" its program. After determining that two former Sooners quarterback Rhett Bomar and lineman J.D. Quinn had no-show jobs, the NCAA forfeited their eight wins during the 2005 season. The program will also lose a total of four scholarships two next year and two the year after.
"The penalties leveled against Oklahoma were thought by most of us here to be a little bit harsh especially since the institution declared the players immediately ineligible," says J. Brent Clark, an attorney in Norman, an ardent Sooners fan, and author of, among other books, a history of Oklahoma football.
In 1975, just out of law school, Clark was an investigator for the NCAA. He discovered more than a little evidence that a man named Sam Gilbert had provided UCLA basketball players with illicit benefits. "Sam Gilbert was part of a pattern of behavior," says Clark. "I reported that to my superiors but there was no follow-up, no expanded investigation. The information was buried... My investigation was window dressing."
Later, disenchanted with the NCAA, Clark would testify before Congress. It was his opinion that the NCAA treated certain men as untouchables, among them some of the greatest college coaches ever: John Wooden, Bear Bryant, Ara Parseghian, Frank Broyles and Darrell Royal.
"Those fellows were institutions," he says. "...Sacred cows. In my opinion they were."
And that brings us back to Pete Carroll and the dynasty he's building at USC. Oklahoma's violations "arguably pale in comparison" to what's been alleged in the case involving Bush and USC. What's more, notes Clark, "I find it interesting that the Reggie Bush case has drawn out so long... I think there are two possible things you can conclude. Either the NCAA is being its usual inefficient self, or the investigation has expanded beyond the Reggie Bush allegations."
Reasonable assumptions, but what of the sacred cow theory? Does it apply to Carroll and USC?
No, he says: "I don't think Southern Cal is a sacred cow." In fact, he doesn't think there are any sacred cows anymore. "Our culture has changed" says Clark. "It's mostly because of the internet. There's so much anonymous investigation out there. It's virtually impossible to maintain sacred cow status."
His answer surprised me. But then so did his prediction: "I think they're going to get hammered. You cannot penalize Oklahoma like they did and let this Reggie Bush thing go. The day of reckoning is coming."
I would have liked to call Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker, on that one. But no one makes book on NCAA investigations. As betting propositions go, they're way too risky.
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/7174648?MSNHPHMA
On Saturday evening, USC football will inaugurate its 2007 campaign with a ritual beating of Idaho at the Los Angeles Coliseum. The Trojans will have to win by a margin of 48 that's six touchdowns, plus a couple of field goals for one to make money betting the home team.
"A complete mismatch," says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a group of very smart guys who supply the opening lines for the Nevada casinos. "Of the 119 Division I-A teams, that's about the widest margin you could have."
Seba, whose judgment in these matters is smarter and more sober than the aggregate wisdom of all fans and sportswriters combined, thought about it for a moment before reconsidering. "Well, maybe if they played FIU," he said. "That could get it up to around 50."
OK, the point is well taken. But in a larger context, on the eve of another college football season, the Idaho game is but a mathematical curiosity. Yes, Pete Carroll's team is so good as to test the limits of statistical probability. But more than that, the Trojans are already being considered in dynastic terms. Last month, Stanford's Jim Harbaugh, already a lock for honors as the NCAA's most quotable coach, declared: "There is no question in my mind that USC is the best team in the country and may be the best team in the history of college football."
Carroll's Trojans won the BCS championship after the 2004 season, beating Oklahoma 55-19. The year before, the Associated Press declaring them champions of college football. They concluded last season, an off-year, by decimating No. 3 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. For five straight years now, they have won the Pac-10 and finished no worse than fourth in the country. This season might well be their best.
"Obviously we have them favored to win it all," says Seba, "They're a clear-cut number one." Of 65 possible first-place votes in the pre-season AP poll, the Trojans received 62.
USC stockpiles talent like the U.S. and the Soviets once stockpiled nuclear warheads. Carroll's down to a mere 10 tailbacks now that Emmanuel Moody, the second-leading rusher on last year's team, has transferred to Florida. How's that? The guy had to go to the defending national champions to get some playing time. Then again, Southern Cal is still a lot more talented at linebacker than tailback.
Carroll's roster might be an embarrassment of riches, but other embarrassments lurk as well. And one of them threatens the Trojan dynasty itself.
In April, 2006, Yahoo! Sports began reporting spectacularly detailed allegations that Heisman trophy winner Reggie Bush, his mother and stepfather received illicit benefits (not the least of which was a rent-free house in the San Diego area) from would-be agents and marketing reps seeking Bush as a client. Some months later, another piece by Charles Robinson and Jason Cole for Yahoo! Sports put the tab at more than $100,000. The alleged violations go back to 2004, meaning that USC could possibly have to vacate a national championship, thereby diminishing its dynastic status.
The Bush camp has steadfastly maintained its innocence. The NCAA, despite all its resources and alleged investigative might, has had less success than reporters Robinson and Cole. Yesterday, in lieu of a real update, I got this statement: "The NCAA continues to investigate this matter in conjunction with the institution and the conference; however, it has been difficult to obtain cooperation from those involved."
If I were really cynical, I'd note that Reggie Bush who, in theory, could not be compensated while playing in college is featured on the box cover of the Electronic Arts game NCAA Football 07. (Unlike the student-athletes, of course, the NCAA doesn't play for free.) Still, ironies aside, one wonders what the NCAA has been doing all this time.
Oklahoma, for example, has been severely punished for "a failure to monitor" its program. After determining that two former Sooners quarterback Rhett Bomar and lineman J.D. Quinn had no-show jobs, the NCAA forfeited their eight wins during the 2005 season. The program will also lose a total of four scholarships two next year and two the year after.
"The penalties leveled against Oklahoma were thought by most of us here to be a little bit harsh especially since the institution declared the players immediately ineligible," says J. Brent Clark, an attorney in Norman, an ardent Sooners fan, and author of, among other books, a history of Oklahoma football.
In 1975, just out of law school, Clark was an investigator for the NCAA. He discovered more than a little evidence that a man named Sam Gilbert had provided UCLA basketball players with illicit benefits. "Sam Gilbert was part of a pattern of behavior," says Clark. "I reported that to my superiors but there was no follow-up, no expanded investigation. The information was buried... My investigation was window dressing."
Later, disenchanted with the NCAA, Clark would testify before Congress. It was his opinion that the NCAA treated certain men as untouchables, among them some of the greatest college coaches ever: John Wooden, Bear Bryant, Ara Parseghian, Frank Broyles and Darrell Royal.
"Those fellows were institutions," he says. "...Sacred cows. In my opinion they were."
And that brings us back to Pete Carroll and the dynasty he's building at USC. Oklahoma's violations "arguably pale in comparison" to what's been alleged in the case involving Bush and USC. What's more, notes Clark, "I find it interesting that the Reggie Bush case has drawn out so long... I think there are two possible things you can conclude. Either the NCAA is being its usual inefficient self, or the investigation has expanded beyond the Reggie Bush allegations."
Reasonable assumptions, but what of the sacred cow theory? Does it apply to Carroll and USC?
No, he says: "I don't think Southern Cal is a sacred cow." In fact, he doesn't think there are any sacred cows anymore. "Our culture has changed" says Clark. "It's mostly because of the internet. There's so much anonymous investigation out there. It's virtually impossible to maintain sacred cow status."
His answer surprised me. But then so did his prediction: "I think they're going to get hammered. You cannot penalize Oklahoma like they did and let this Reggie Bush thing go. The day of reckoning is coming."
I would have liked to call Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker, on that one. But no one makes book on NCAA investigations. As betting propositions go, they're way too risky.