I've Got Bad News For Those Of You Traveling Before 9-21-07

[FaninAma]

Well, it could be bad news for all of us. I don't know if this is true. Maaybe somebody can check Snopes but this is the 5th or 6th post I've seen on this subject in a week:

Is this just another urban legend? My friend says he saw the quantity mentioned on the spx option chain--have you heard of it--or is anyone discussing it in your office?--big o.i. in certain options doesn't usually mean "smart money" is doing anything--like the huge o.i. in the Dec07 $900 and $1000 gold calls--which have been there for a long time and were bought at much higher prices
There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open
interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion. Not a
single trade. But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700 points
away from current value. No one would buy that deep "in the money"
calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone betting on
massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option activity that I haven't
seen before.

The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the
market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does not
drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion
just for engaging in these contracts!

Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the options expire on Sept. 21.

THEORIES:
The following theories are being discussed widely within the stock and
options markets today regarding the enormous and very unusual activity
reported above and two stories below. Those theories are:

1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept. 21 to
tank the markets, OR;
2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-prime
mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US currency
and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution.

Either scenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The drop-dead date of
these contracts is September 21. Whatever is going to happen MUST take
place between now and then or the folks involved in these contracts will
lose over $1 billion for having engaged in this activity.



"$1.78 Billion Bet that Stock Markets will crash by third week in September
Anonymous Stock Trader Sells 10K Contracts on EVERY S&P/Y "Strike"
Shorts Stocks "in the money" effectively selling all his SPY holdings
for cash up front without pressuring the market downward
This is an enormous and dangerous stock option activity. If it goes
right, the guy makes about $2 Billion. If he's wrong, his out of pocket
costs for buying these options will exceed $700 Million!!!

The entity who sold these contracts can only make money if the stock
market totally crashes by the third week in September.

Bear in mind that the last time anyone conducted such large and unusual
stock option trades (like this one) was in the weeks before the attacks
of September 11.

Back then, they bought huge numbers of PUTS on airline stocks in the
same airlines whose planes were involved in the September 11 attacks.
Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and Exchange
Commission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one was
ever publicly identified as being responsible for the trades which made
upwards of $50 million when the attacks happened.

The fact that this latest activity by a single entity gambles on a
complete collapse of the entire market by the third week in September,
seems to indicate someone knows something really huge is in the works
and they intend to profit almost $2 Billion within the next four weeks
from whatever happens! This is really worrisome."

Source is an investment/precious metals web site. :pop:

[Scott D]

you sure that wasn't attached to one of the many "1ncreas3 your manh00d" emails you get? :pop:

[SoonerBBall]

Seriously, do some more research on the trading prior to Sep 11th. There wasn't a single thing abnormal about the trades that took place up to that day.

*Hot Tip* - Don't rely on Loose Change or any of its ridiculous conspiracy theory cousins for reliable information on any subject, especially 9/11 stuff.

[Hamhock]

Well, it could be bad news for all of us. I don't know if this is true. Maaybe somebody can check Snopes but this is the 5th or 6th post I've seen on this subject in a week:
[/FONT]

Source is an investment/precious metals web site. :pop:


what's the name of the site?

[Sooner Born Sooner Bred]

If I believed every single "the sky is falling" warning, I'd never leave the house.

[Mjcpr]

I've traveled lots of times before 9/21/07 and everything was just fine.

[FaninAma]

what's the name of the site?

www.gold-eagle.com (http://www.gold-eagle.com)

And before you deride that website you need to be aware that the investments I made based on things I learned ther have increased by 500% since 2001.

SoonerBBall, chill dude. I in no way stated that I absolutely believed that transaction cited in the post I quoted hd actually happened. I was merely trying to verify if anybody else had heard this.

[sooner_born_1960]

Homeland Security should be informed of this.

[FaninAma]

Homeland Security should be informed of this.

They are. I also heard it on CNBC so I guess they're in on the conspiracy, too.

BTW SoonerBBall, I disagree with you that there weren't some very large puts taken out on the airline industry before 9-11.

[jk the sooner fan]

And before you deride that website you need to be aware that the investments I made based on things I learned ther have increased by 500% since 2001.



hillary didnt make that much on the cattle futures!

[FaninAma]

hillary didnt make that much on the cattle futures!

No, she made 1000% in one year. I can't say that my 500% over 6 years can compare. Try looking at Boone Pickens' hedge fund return since 2000. It's appreciated many, many times even what Hilliary earned in the futures market.

BTW, it wasn't hard to realize good gains when the unhedged gold index(HUI) was up over 640% during that time. So my investments didn't even match the index fund. :(

[jk the sooner fan]

a 500% increase in 5 years is certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye

[FaninAma]

a 500% increase in 5 years is certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye

Yeah, I just wish I hadn't been a chicken and had invested more than 20% of my portfolio.

[Tulsa_Fireman]

I know what it is.

It's my old man's 58th birthday.

OH NOES CAKE AND ICE CREAM.

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES.

http://oldrecipebook.com/cakes/happybirthdaydad.jpg

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Precious metals website = Nigerians?

[FaninAma]

Precious metals website = Nigerians?

Very funny.:D PM = commodities = very impressive gains over the last few years = safe haven during market turmoil. I'll take all the kidding you can throw at me if it means I would get that kind of return on investment all the time.

And the 500% return wasn't done with the use of margin, options, futures or any other form of leverage.

Meanwhile, my equity accounts are up a whopping 25% over the same 6 years which barely covered the losses from the previous 2 years.

BTW, the Nasdaq will take 2 more decades(or 1 decade with hyperinflation) to ever get back to its highs before 9-11.

[Scott D]

Bruce would be proud of your 500%.

[FaninAma]

Bruce would be proud of your 500%.

Well thank you. And I'm not trying to brag. Heavens knows that the appreciation in that area has been offset by some other dumb things I've done in the same time period. I just think it's a little short-sighted to dismiss an investment option because the sector has been ridiculed and disparaged by the money changers in the media and government.

Of course they want you to continue to buy into their debt shell game. It's the only way they can keep monetizing the previous debts they've hoisted upon this country. I do find it curious as to why the government has to have a federal reserve before it can print its own currency(actually the Federal Reserve prints the USD and the US Treasury buys the USD with US Treasury bonds backed by the US tax payer.....which explains why there was a need for an income tax at the same time the Federal Reserve came into existence.

In the end, the US government, and most other governements, are simply backing their debt with newer larger debt. It's a shell game combined with a pyramid scheme.

And I'm not saying you should get into precious metals but at least look at commodities or equities that produce commodities. It is a great hedge against both inflation and deflation.

[C&CDean]

Mason.

Jars.

[Scott D]

maybe when the US gets back on the gold standard I'll consider it.

[SoonerBBall]

BTW SoonerBBall, I disagree with you that there weren't some very large puts taken out on the airline industry before 9-11.

I never said there weren't. I merely said that the trading that went on concerning the airlines was in no way abnormal.

[FaninAma]

maybe when the US gets back on the gold standard I'll consider it.

They're on the debt standard, currently. And with the American consumer up to his eyeballs(ie. maxed out) in credit I think the day of reckoning is nigh. And no, I don't think it's a financial Armgeddon....just lots of pain as the credit bubble begins to lose air which will result in one of 2 scenarios:

1. The Fed can't reinflate the bubble which will lead to a recession and probably a painful deflationary period.
2. The Fed can reinflate the bubble but at the cost of creating massive liquidity and hyperinflation.

There are other coomodities to consider investing in. Heck, Dean has a few cattle and some hay he'll sell you if the price is right.

SoonerBBall, Boren and the FBI told us the OU bomber was just really trying to kill himself outside a stadium of 85,000 people. It's not engaging in conspiratorial thinking to acknowledge there may be other explanations other that the official government line.

[SoonerStormchaser]

But I heard it on Art Bell, so it must be true!

[Stoop Dawg]

They're on the debt standard, currently. And with the American consumer up to his eyeballs(ie. maxed out) in credit I think the day of reckoning is nigh.

I've thought that since 1997. And I still do.

What I don't know is how it will affect me (zero credit card debt and assets valued higher than the loans against them). I'm guessing it will something along the lines of "All you rich people (you know, those who didn't borrow more than they can afford) need to help these poor people (the idiots who thought "interest only" and "variable rate" loans were a good idea because it allowed them to buy a house 3 times bigger than they should have) out". At least that's the way it seems to go in this country.

[Scott D]

I've thought that since 1997. And I still do.

What I don't know is how it will affect me (zero credit card debt and assets valued higher than the loans against them). I'm guessing it will something along the lines of "All you rich people (you know, those who didn't borrow more than they can afford) need to help these poor people (the idiots who thought "interest only" and "variable rate" loans were a good idea because it allowed them to buy a house 3 times bigger than they should have) out". At least that's the way it seems to go in this country.

actually it's already negatively affected you in regards to getting a mortgage now or if you needed to get a loan to purchase a new car. The process isn't the same sort of ease through for people with good credit that it has been in the past.

[FaninAma]

After further review I think whoever purchased those massive put options on the market is just betting that the market will implode from the credit crunch, not a terrorist attack. They may be protecting themself(or self) due to heavy exposure to the market or to the toxic home mortgages poisoning the credit market.
http://www.cnbc.com/

[NormanPride]

So I can come out of my bunker?

[soonerbrat]

can you give me cliff's notes?
i couldn't read past the first sentence

[FaninAma]

can you give me cliff's notes?
i couldn't read past the first sentence

I edited the post. Essentially, IMO, somebody on the inside knows that there is going to be some very bad news coming out regarding the sub-prime mortgage problem and they are betting that the market is going to fall a lot.

Their motivation, again IMO, could be that they themselves are up to their necks in the sub-prime mess and they're hoping to buy out their positions in the bad mortgages.

Or, they are aware of the impending bad news and they're just greedy and want to profit off the market loss when the news comes out.

[FaninAma]

So I can come out of my bunker?

Not just yet.

Here's another site with the same story or claim:
http://www.wallstreetweb.nl/community/viewtopic.php?p=70999&sid=0e1b11bedf5a4465269b740bc687d7da

[soonerbrat]

I edited the post. Essentially, IMO, somebody on the inside knows that there is going to be some very bad news coming out regarding the sub-prime mortgage problem and they are betting that the market is going to fall a lot.

Their motivation, again IMO, could be that they themselves are up to their necks in the sub-prime mess and they're hoping to buy out their positions in the bad mortgages.

Or, they are aware of the impending bad news and they're just greedy and want to profit off the market loss when the news comes out.

so what does that have to do with travel?

[FaninAma]

so what does that have to do with travel?

There were some posters discussing this topic that theorized the purchaser of the put options had some inside information that there might be another 9-11 type terrorist attack. As my post just a few moments ago stated, I don't think that is the case.

If the market falls it will be due to economic factors.

[soonerbrat]

There were some posters discussing this topic that theorized the purchaser of the put options had some inside information that there might be another 9-11 type terrorist attack. As my post just a few moments ago stated, I don't think that is the case.

If the market falls it will be due to economic factors.

got it.
thanks for the explanation

[Scott D]

damn, I'm screwed since my job requires me to travel you know...every day.

[Stoop Dawg]

somebody on the inside knows that there is going to be some very bad news coming out regarding the sub-prime mortgage problem and they are betting that the market is going to fall a lot.

Uh, this isn't exactly breaking news. The sub-prime mortage industry has been tanking for months and put lending in general on the ropes. The impending credit crunch is all but certain (IM uneducated O, of course).

The real question is: Will the govt try go bail these people out (the lenders and/or borrowers) or let them own up to their own mistakes? And what are the consequences to either approach? Unfortunately, I'm not smart enough to answer either of those questions. :(

[FaninAma]

Uh, this isn't exactly breaking news. The sub-prime mortage industry has been tanking for months and put lending in general on the ropes. The impending credit crunch is all but certain (IM uneducated O, of course).

The real question is: Will the govt try go bail these people out (the lenders and/or borrowers) or let them own up to their own mistakes? And what are the consequences to either approach? Unfortunately, I'm not smart enough to answer either of those questions. :(

The Fed doesn't have enough sack to not lower the prime rate by 50 basis points, minimum. That is a given and has already been factored into the market. If they do anything less than 50 basis points the market will crater and the fear will run rampant on Wall Street.

The problem is now that the Fed doesn't have any room to prime the pump which means we are staring down the barrel of a Japan-style deflationary market except Americans don't have the saving habits of the Japanese which means there's a whole lot more debt that could blow up in our faces.

[JohnnyMack]

Hedge funds have started nibbling at the dying carcass that is sub-prime.

[FaninAma]

Hedge funds have started nibbling at the dying carcass that is sub-prime.

Man, that's just crazy talk. I wonder if they think the US Treasury will come to the rescue by buying these mortgages back through Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae?

[Stoop Dawg]

The Fed doesn't have enough sack to not lower the prime rate by 50 basis points, minimum. That is a given and has already been factored into the market. If they do anything less than 50 basis points the market will crater and the fear will run rampant on Wall Street.

Hmmm, since I'm relatively debt-free, have a pretty secure job, and have almost 20% of my IRA in "cash reserves" (due to laziness, not prudent market analysis), maybe this wouldn't be such a bad thing for me.

Maybe I'm a cynic, but at this point I don't see anyway we avoid a 2001-ish "recession", if not worse. (isn't 2001 when the tech bubble burst?)

[FaninAma]

Hmmm, since I'm relatively debt-free, have a pretty secure job, and have almost 20% of my IRA in "cash reserves" (due to laziness, not prudent market analysis), maybe this wouldn't be such a bad thing for me.

Maybe I'm a cynic, but at this point I don't see anyway we avoid a 2001-ish "recession", if not worse. (isn't 2001 when the tech bubble burst?)

I would say you are in a good position. I think the Fed is going to react the way they always react....throw money at the problem. They will throw enough money at the problem to cause more inflation which will help the price of bonds, commodities, and stocks(except financial stocks.) There will probably be some initial period of recession which will make your cash position look good but this will be followed by an even more pronounced inflationary induced boom in equities and commodities.

At some pont, though, this country can't continue to "prosper" on a ever-growing mountain of debt. Either voluntarily or by market corrections it will have to be dealt with.

[Scott D]

Uh, this isn't exactly breaking news. The sub-prime mortage industry has been tanking for months and put lending in general on the ropes. The impending credit crunch is all but certain (IM uneducated O, of course).

The real question is: Will the govt try go bail these people out (the lenders and/or borrowers) or let them own up to their own mistakes? And what are the consequences to either approach? Unfortunately, I'm not smart enough to answer either of those questions. :(

if the government is going to attempt to bail out the borrowers, it won't be until 2009 at the earliest. GWB would have to have one heck of a change of heart to do it.

I fully expect there to be some sort of bailing out for the more corporate of lenders.

[FaninAma]

if the government is going to attempt to bail out the borrowers, it won't be until 2009 at the earliest. GWB would have to have one heck of a change of heart to do it.

I fully expect there to be some sort of bailing out for the more corporate of lenders.

I agree. Why do you think there was a GOP lead charge to toughen the bankruptcy laws in this country? That was when my disenchantment with the GOP started to really grow. They want the little guy to own up to his debts but they give the big corporations and banks every out imagineable when they get into trouble.

[Scott D]

I agree. Why do you think there was a GOP lead charge to toughen the bankruptcy laws in this country? That was when my disenchantment with the GOP started to really grow. They want the little guy to own up to his debts but they give the big corporations and banks every out imagineable when they get into trouble.

your disenchantment should have begun 20 odd years ago when they used self preservation of wealth as the core basis for the savings and loan bailout. The gameplan is already in the GOP's playbook.

truthfully, there could probably be enough money to be gotten out of some major major government imposed penalty on credit card companies over misrepresentation to ease the problems the little guy is having now. However, the dilemma for Washington in that matter is how much of a cut their own pockets would take if they did go after credit card companies.

another point would be those sub-prime mortgages that people had that "put them beyond their reach" were forced on a lot of people in the period where they seemed to be "popular". In some ways, the more immediate greed of mortgage lenders backfired on them when the artificial market they created burst all at once with a massive vacuum in the job market (that Tuba says doesn't exist, and homey blames completely 100% on unions).

[FaninAma]

your disenchantment should have begun 20 odd years ago when they used self preservation of wealth as the core basis for the savings and loan bailout. The gameplan is already in the GOP's playbook.

truthfully, there could probably be enough money to be gotten out of some major major government imposed penalty on credit card companies over misrepresentation to ease the problems the little guy is having now. However, the dilemma for Washington in that matter is how much of a cut their own pockets would take if they did go after credit card companies.

another point would be those sub-prime mortgages that people had that "put them beyond their reach" were forced on a lot of people in the period where they seemed to be "popular". In some ways, the more immediate greed of mortgage lenders backfired on them when the artificial market they created burst all at once with a massive vacuum in the job market (that Tuba says doesn't exist, and homey blames completely 100% on unions).

20 years ago I was a broke medical student. The only dealing I had with banks was my student loan.

The credit problem today is many times worse than the credit problem caused by the S&L fiasco and it reaches further into Wall Street and Main Street.

I think even if the Fed eases interest the banks will be reluctant to share that with their customers meaning personal loans for mortgages, cars, etc will be tougher and tougher to get due to tightening credit standards. The banks will circle the wagons and make sure their bad debts are covered but there will be a huge tidal wave of personal bankruptcy which will eventually effect the bottom line of every business in the world since the American consumer has been the engine driving the world's economy for the last 27 years.

[FaninAma]

BTW, the guy who really kicked the debt machine into high gear (at least in the personal consumer sector) was Bill Clinton. His economic policies also favored Wall Street(especially financial institutions like Goldman-Sachs, Solomon Bros, Merrill Lych and others) to the detriment of the US manufacturing base by tailoring his policies to support a very strong dollar which encouraged foreign investment, discouraged exporting by US businesses and encouraged consumption of cheap foreign products by US consumers.

Now, as the US consumer reaches the end of his ability to pile up new debt the chickens have come home to roost. Bush,the GOP And the Federal Reserve are guilty of providing cheap drugs(money) to the drug addicts(consumers of this country) to continue the spending binge.

So both major parties should share the credit for the US being in the predicament we're in right now.

[Stoop Dawg]

The banks will circle the wagons and make sure their bad debts are covered but there will be a huge tidal wave of personal bankruptcy which will eventually effect the bottom line of every business in the world since the American consumer has been the engine driving the world's economy for the last 27 years.

And personal bankruptcy this time around probably won't be the slap on the wrist that is has been for the last decade.

My sister filed bankruptcy about 7 years ago. She paid a little higher interest rate and need a co-signer for her mortgage, but she still got a new house and new car within a year or two of filing.

[NormanPride]

But I thought bankruptcy was the law that said "Aw, don't worry! It's cool, man..."!

[FaninAma]

But I thought bankruptcy was the law that said "Aw, don't worry! It's cool, man..."!

Thats only for corporations and Wall Street investment firms, now.

[Scott D]

I think even if the Fed eases interest the banks will be reluctant to share that with their customers meaning personal loans for mortgages, cars, etc will be tougher and tougher to get due to tightening credit standards. The banks will circle the wagons and make sure their bad debts are covered but there will be a huge tidal wave of personal bankruptcy which will eventually effect the bottom line of every business in the world since the American consumer has been the engine driving the world's economy for the last 27 years.

they've already begun circling the wagons, by the definition of it being tougher for people with spotless or near spotless credit to get quality rates or funds. I personally love how the government defines their assistance in regards to corporate bankrupcy as "vital for the stimulation of the economy" but seems to forget that there is no economy without a workforce or consumers.

[FaninAma]

Benarke is supposed to give a speech today. If he doesn't say what the market wants him to say then it will tank by another 200 to 300 points.

And if he says there won't be a rate cut before the September Fed meeting I think he paints himself and the rest of the Fed into a corner because if the market continues to plunge and the Fed approves an emergency cut it will look like an action born out of panic....which is exactly what it will be.

I fully expect the prime interst rate to be sitting at 4% or below by next April, the Dow at 15,000 to 16,000, gold at $800 to $850 an ounce, silver at $15 to $ 16 an ounce and the real estate market still in a recession. The USD will be somewhere in the 75 to 80 range and oil will be $85 a barrel(if not higher). Wheat will be over $8.50 a bushel. A gallon of gas will average $3.30 or higher at the pump.

All of the above are just my personal opinions/guesses.

[SoonerBBall]

SoonerBBall, Boren and the FBI told us the OU bomber was just really trying to kill himself outside a stadium of 85,000 people. It's not engaging in conspiratorial thinking to acknowledge there may be other explanations other that the official government line.

No they didn't. It was mentioned in almost every single news source that the kid tried to enter the stadium at least twice, but was turned away when he wouldn't let security search his backpack.

Regardless, though, blindly believing a story set forth by the government is pretty stupid, but until someone comes up with a more credible explanation, and not just meaningless conjecture, I think I'll go with Occam's Razor on this one.

[OUinFLA]

Benarke is supposed to give a speech today. If he doesn't say what the market wants him to say then it will tank by another 200 to 300 points.

And if he says there won't be a rate cut before the September Fed meeting I think he paints himself and the rest of the Fed into a corner because if the market continues to plunge and the Fed approves an emergency cut it will look like an action born out of panic....which is exactly what it will be.

I fully expect the prime interst rate to be sitting at 4% or below by next April, the Dow at 15,000 to 16,000, gold at $800 to $850 an ounce, silver at $15 to $ 16 an ounce and the real estate market still in a recession. The USD will be somewhere in the 75 to 80 range and oil will be $85 a barrel(if not higher). Wheat will be over $8.50 a bushel. A gallon of gas will average $3.30 or higher at the pump.

All of the above are just my personal opinions/guesses.


I'm gonna go fill up my truck and my wife's suv right now!

[Stoop Dawg]

if the government is going to attempt to bail out the borrowers, it won't be until 2009 at the earliest. GWB would have to have one heck of a change of heart to do it.

I fully expect there to be some sort of bailing out for the more corporate of lenders.

I guess he had one heck of a change of heart.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070831/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_housing_slump


WASHINGTON - President Bush outlined ways the federal government can help troubled borrowers keep their homes Friday in an effort to address rising foreclosures fueled by the mortgage crisis.

The administration's first attempt at dealing with a wave of defaults is not aimed at bailing out lenders, however.

[Scott D]

I guess he had one heck of a change of heart.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070831/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_housing_slump

his statements are pretty interesting, especially considering how vociferously he insisted that he wouldn't do such a thing a few weeks ago. I really don't think he ever grasped how bad the situation was becoming until the market started showing the negative effects of "predatory mortgaging"