slickdawg
5/30/2007, 07:14 PM
we may have a couple of severe weather outbreaks starting this weekend:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY
JUNE 2 THROUGH SUNDAY JUNE 3...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6
THAT BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN
THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY DAY 6 AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. FOR DAYS 4-5
NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH AND SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING RICHER MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER S
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PATTERN SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR NW FLOW SEVERE
EVENTS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR HIGH PLAINS
AND SPREAD SEWD THROUGH UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WHERE SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND MCSS.
BEYOND DAY 6 MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OUTBREAK OVER THE SRN OR CNTRL PLAINS ON DAYS
7-8. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN AN
OUTLOOK ONCE SUFFICIENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IS OBTAINED.
..DIAL.. 05/30/2007
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY
JUNE 2 THROUGH SUNDAY JUNE 3...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6
THAT BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN
THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY DAY 6 AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. FOR DAYS 4-5
NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH AND SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING RICHER MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER S
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PATTERN SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR NW FLOW SEVERE
EVENTS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR HIGH PLAINS
AND SPREAD SEWD THROUGH UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WHERE SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND MCSS.
BEYOND DAY 6 MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OUTBREAK OVER THE SRN OR CNTRL PLAINS ON DAYS
7-8. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN AN
OUTLOOK ONCE SUFFICIENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IS OBTAINED.
..DIAL.. 05/30/2007