Sooner Kool-aid or legit NC contender?

[htownsooner7]

I admit up front that I drink the Sooner kool-aid. That being said, I am able to acknowledge the team's problem areas. I realize that our QB and LB's are unproven. And yet.. I think this team can contend for a NC. Besides Tu, I don't see any game on our schedule where we aren't clearly the favorite (6 point line or higher). OUr O-line, offensive skilled players, and secondary are top 5 units in the country. We are returning roughly 17 starters from a Big XII championship team. Miami is at home.

I don't like to be overly optimistic, but I just don't see why it is impossible to project that we could be playing for it all next January. I realize that things have to come together. Reed, Reynolds, etc.. need to step up. The qb has to establish himself as a winner, not just a guy that keeps us from losing. We need to stay healthy. But nonetheless, I believe it to be a real possibility. Thoughts?

[Seamus]

I've trained myself to retrain my optimism, really, in order to avoid the serious letdown at the end. But I agree with what you're saying. There's a lot -- a lot -- of potential with these lads. And I don't think the QB will be simply "minding the store." It takes a rare freshman to lead a team to a championship, but it's not as if it were without precedent.

[LittleWingSooner]

I think next year is the NC year. This year the schedule is set up well. But the QB situation is a question mark and replacing all those starters in the front 7 on defense won't be as easy as some of our fans think.

[Frozen Sooner]

Well, certainly there's a chance, but I think we're a year or so away. Too much inexperience at the QB position. I think we've also got some coaching issues on defense that need to be addressed.

[Big Red Ron]

Let's talk after the wimmin's college world series is over.

;)

[Collier11]

True that next year we will be more set at QB, but we will likely lose Reggie Smith and Malcolm Kelly, We will lose Holmes, Walker, Wolfe, and Williams from the Secondary and there is a chance that Nic Harris could go pro if he has another good year. Plus the schedule is tougher next year. With the way this team sets up, this could be the year to make a good run at it, true if everyone stays that next year we could be a juggernaut, but I like the look of things for this season!

[LittleWingSooner]

I doubt Nic Harris goes pro. But I think if we get good play from the front 7 with the athletes we have at DB, I'm not too worried about the DBs.

[CatfishSooner]

All the way babyy..#8!

[CU Sooner]

I can see #8 happening this year, I see it happening every year. In reality though, I think it looks a lot like the 02 team, strong defense with a good offense but with nexty to no big play potential and still have the possibility to win it all.
Then compare next year with 03, a dynamic offense with a great defense and hopefully a OC who will run the ball the last 10 yards for a MNC.:rolleyes:

[htownsooner7]

I agree with earlier posts. OUr best offensive and defensive players, Kelly and Smith, may not be back next year. It's just nice to look on the schedule and ask the question, which game should we not win? This year, I say the answer is none of them. Last year, not so. We were underdogs at Oregon, against UT, and I think the Atm line was less than 3 as was at Missouri. Even if you didn't think we were going to lose those games you would have had a hard time saying that we would be 4-0 in games that we were either the underdogs in or were favored on the road by less than a field goal. Forgive my gambler speak..

[CU Sooner]

Not to denegrate Kelly but receiver may be the easiest skill position to replace, not to mention we have a pretty good corp now.
It is correct, though, to look at the schedule and say there is not a game we should lose. But that was the case in 01, 02, 03, and 04.

[sooneron]

Not to denegrate Kelly but receiver may be the easiest skill position to replace, not to mention we have a pretty good corp now.
It is correct, though, to look at the schedule and say there is not a game we should lose. But that was the case in 01, 02, 03, and 04.
It may be the easiest to replace, but the "go to guy" is tough to replace. Kelly is a big time "go to" guy. They don't necessarily step forward every year.
It doesn't matter how good your team is, you still need one at a critical point or two in a season.

[CU Sooner]

I couldn't agree more. I guess my only point is it is harder for a reciever to be that "go to" guy when it takes a qb to get it to him. Whereas, a qb gets it everytime and rb can be handed the ball evrytime.
Look at the kid from GT last year, there were several games where he didn't make much of an impact but only because they has a qb he couldn't get the job done. At South Carolina, they had a really good revciever, Rice, but not a qb who could get the ball to him consistently.

[Collier11]

Look at Ou in the Fiesta Bowl last year, we saw both sides of the story. MK was wide open for a Td, PT underthrew him because he just couldnt throw the deep ball very well and not only did we miss out on the TD but MK got hurt. Then MK not being in the game had a big affect on the game IMO. THere are several things that have to go right to win a MNC, I think that the single biggest factor to us winning a championship next year is that Coach SToops and Coach Wilson arent afraid to be gutsy despite our inexperience at QB!

[oumartin]

I'm with Rich on this one. Anything is possible but I am not sold on the coaching on the defensive side of the ball. Defense gets weaker each year

[HTown77095]

Lets just say if it weren't for someone who's name I shall not mention were to have done what everyone had expected (or not expected) we would have had plenty of experience at qb by now and would be a legitimate contender this year. Seems like that was the master plan. Well, we all know what happened...

Having said all that we could very well run the table. I worry about the bowl game though..

[Big Red Ron]

Not to denegrate Kelly but receiver may be the easiest skill position to replace, not to mention we have a pretty good corp now.
It is correct, though, to look at the schedule and say there is not a game we should lose. But that was the case in 01, 02, 03, and 04.I disagree. Kelly is the closest, in terms of production, to Mark Clayton since he left and he still isn't the playmaker that Clayton was, just yet.

[Jello Biafra]

I disagree. Kelly is the closest, in terms of production, to Mark Clayton since he left and he still isn't the playmaker that Clayton was, just yet.


fwiw,

we still haven't found the roy back or the lehman/calmus tandem. it doesn't mean they aren't on the roster, i am confident they are. I just think they need the opportunity to show up.

[KingDavid]

I've trained myself to retrain my optimism, really, in order to avoid the serious letdown at the end. But I agree with what you're saying. There's a lot -- a lot -- of potential with these lads. And I don't think the QB will be simply "minding the store." It takes a rare freshman to lead a team to a championship, but it's not as if it were without precedent.

Help me out on the precedent for a freshman QB leading a team to a championship? Not questionning you at all . . . I'm just wondering how rare of a feat it actually is. I'm not talking about first year starters, either (i.e. Leinart); but true or red-shirt freshman - like Bradford or Nichol will be.

In general, I agree that we have a really good opportunity. I also believe, as someone else mentioned, that we were truly hurt by the choices of you-know-who. It kind of makes me a little queasy when I think of how strong this team would be with a seasoned Junior QB at the helm. I'm sure it makes him queasy, too.

No point in crying over spilt milk, though. We are as good of a contender as anyone in the Big XII - probably the best. I think you have to give Texas their due, especially with McCoy back and healthy. That kid is a winner.

Another complicating factor for us is that the Big XII -especially the South - is getting more competitive top to bottom. It's too damn easy to blow a game or two in this league: case in point, see Texas last year.

Given the long odds, I like our chances under the following two conditions: (Note, I'm going to leave out the obvious things like "we have to beat Texas.")


We need three dominant play-makers to emerge and solidify themselves on the defensive side of the ball. Most likely candidates: 1) Reggie Smith; 2) Nic Harris; 3) Demarcus Granger; 4) Gerald McCoy; 5) Marcus Walker; 6) Mike Reid or Ryan Reynolds; 7) Alonzo Dotson or John Williams. You can probably say that Reggie is already there especially if they leave him at CB . . . although he's technically unproven. Between those other candidates, we should have three play-makers rise to the top.

We need one of our quarterbacks to give us an injury-free Colt McCoy-like performance. I personally think we need Keith Nichol to step into the starting rotation by week three. I realize I sound crazy. I probably am. But hear me out: Nichol is a proven winner who knows how to win early and young (see his HS career). The other guys don't have any championship history to look back on in their careers, much less championships when they were leading a team as an underclassman. Nichol has that sort of pedigree. Yes, I'm sure we would probably be a better over-all team with Bradford at the helm: it would be the safe(r) route to go. But I'm not sure Bradford has the "X" factor that Nichol has. Nichol has more immediate up-side. I think that if Nichol could make it through the the out-of-conference schedule without blowing up, he would have the best shot to lead the team to a MNC.




The bottom line is the QB, if you ask me.

[Jello Biafra]

[/LIST]

The bottom line is the QB, if you ask me.



it's not like it hasn't happened at all. in fact, it happened in norman.

[Big Red Ron]

We won in 1985 with a true freshman

[Octavian]

there have been two freshman quarterbacks lead their teams to a national title.

Bernie Kosar ('83) and Jamelle.


Holieway is the only true freshman to do it.


To put it nicely, the odds are bad.

[Big Red Ron]

there have been two freshman quarterbacks lead their teams to a national title.

Bernie Kosar ('83) and Jamelle.


Holieway is the only true freshman to do it.


To put it nicely, the odds are bad.But you're not factoring a little "Sooner Magic" into your odds.;)

[Octavian]

But you're not factoring a little "Sooner Magic" into your odds.;)


Not impossible...just bad odds.


But hey, we've already had one Sooner do it...we've got the schedule and the supporting cast to at least get there...


never know...

[Big Red Ron]

Not impossible...just bad odds.


But hey, we've already had one Sooner do it...we've got the schedule and the supporting cast to at least get there...


never know...WHAT-EVAR DUDE!
















:D

[Collier11]

You also arent factoring in that Freshman rarely played on Varsity for a long time...im not sure when it became en vogue to start playing underclassmen, but it hasnt been that terribly long?

[oumartin]

its not the QB that worries me

[Collier11]

way to spell it out for us...;)

[Frozen Sooner]

You also arent factoring in that Freshman rarely played on Varsity for a long time...im not sure when it became en vogue to start playing underclassmen, but it hasnt been that terribly long?

Mid-70s.

[goingoneight]

If you put Nichol in, you're gonna probably be in serious trouble, unless you've already hung half-a-hundred on 'em. True freshmen often times look good in practice, but you just can't really see how good they truly are until they've been in the game for a while and been coached up to the challenge (usually). A lot of people liked him in the Spring Game, and people always favor the blue-chipper whenever he comes in. Don't believe me? Go re-watch the TCU game and listen to the loud booing Thompson got sometimes even before he took the snap. Then listen to Owen Field roar when Romar jumped in. Neither one did anything special, and Bomar lost the game for us with his butter fingers.

Unfortunately, reality is coming soon for us. It's extremely rare for a first year guy to get in and play like Colt McCoy did. I'd be thrilled if Sam or Keith could do that as first year guys... especially since we have better running backs than Texas did and could win more games than they did. If you want to know how freshmen normally play against teams like Tulsa, Miami and Texas, watch the TCU, UCLA and Tulsa games in 2005. Look at Mitch Mustain last year... sure he was undefeated, but how many of those games did HE actually influence? South Carolina anyone? Bowl game anyone? Not a whole lot when you look at their defensive performance over those eight games and they had a very rare running back by the name of McFadden. Add to that, he was complimented by another running back named Felix Jones (another 1000-yard rusher).

If we have the normal case of freshmen QB jitters, I honestly see us struggling in OOC, possibly losing to Miami, and definitely losing to Texas.

If we want to talk MNC, we better damn well be cheering for every complete pass OUr quarterback makes from day one and holding onto OUr seats hoping he can keep them up.

[AlbqSooner]

You also arent factoring in that Freshman rarely played on Varsity for a long time...im not sure when it became en vogue to start playing underclassmen, but it hasnt been that terribly long?
True freshmen were not eligible until 1972.

[oumartin]

when Romar jumped in

who the hell is Romar?

[Jello Biafra]

who the hell is Romar?

brett romar.......hes a cart pusher at sam's club in houston.......

he played in the backfeild with adarean peterman for one year in norman....

[SoonerBOI]

probably will contend for the nc in a year or two.

[chbrew09]

there have been two freshman quarterbacks lead their teams to a national title.

Bernie Kosar ('83) and Jamelle.


Holieway is the only true freshman to do it.


To put it nicely, the odds are bad.

You're also not considering that over the last 25 years, there have been few teams with stacked national championship caliber players around the QB, when the team needs a freshman QB to start. Our situation with Grady, Bomar, PT (last year stepping in), Halzle (who was basically a last minute pickup meant for a few snaps to backup Bomar) is highly unique in terms of depth for a great team. No other team has had a situation this bad with a team that is in serious contention for a national championship. The reason that there have been so few true freshman QBs win a national championship is because the teams that needed a true freshman starter haven't been as strong as our team in other positions on the team, thus making the true freshman starter only one of many reasons they didn't win a national championship. Hope you follow, but it makes sense. I think we can do it.

[HTown77095]

I'll just be happy to beat Miami. Thats a monkey thats been on our back for a long time.

[Jello Biafra]

I'll just be happy to beat Miami. Thats a monkey thats been humping us for a long time.


fixed.....

[Big Red Ron]

I'll just be happy to beat Miami. Thats a monkey thats been on our back for a long time.I kind of agree but it's just a bit to aggie for my taste.

[oumartin]

Miami, USC and Boise State own us.

[Jello Biafra]

Miami, USC and Boise State own us.


so does ND and *gulp* northwestern

[Blue]

I agree. Miami scares the shat out of me. They're D is going to be solid. If they can find any offense, we might be in trouble.

Can't wait though. We win a 21- 13 type game.

[Octavian]

You're also not considering that over the last 25 years, there have been few teams with stacked national championship caliber players around the QB, when the team needs a freshman QB to start. Our situation with Grady, Bomar, PT (last year stepping in), Halzle (who was basically a last minute pickup meant for a few snaps to backup Bomar) is highly unique in terms of depth for a great team. No other team has had a situation this bad with a team that is in serious contention for a national championship. The reason that there have been so few true freshman QBs win a national championship is because the teams that needed a true freshman starter haven't been as strong as our team in other positions on the team, thus making the true freshman starter only one of many reasons they didn't win a national championship. Hope you follow, but it makes sense. I think we can do it.


I follow...


All I stated were the facts: 2 freshmen national championship QBs ever.


2 since they were eligible to play in 1972 -- 35 years.


...and I disagree that it's mainly because their supporting casts weren't good enough.


Freshmen quarterbacks....not too many Holieway's and Vick's.

[Octavian]

Miami, USC and Boise State own us.


:twinkies:

[goingoneight]

brett romar.......hes a cart pusher at sam's club in houston.......

he played in the backfeild with adarean peterman for one year in norman....

Nicely placed, Jello! :D

[canes4ever]

Well, certainly there's a chance, but I think we're a year or so away. Too much inexperience at the QB position. I think we've also got some coaching issues on defense that need to be addressed.

Does OU have a freshman QB at number one on the depth chart? Do you have anyone other than freshmen QBs on the roster? Didn't OU lose a pretty good LB to the draft?

[Jello Biafra]

Does OU have a freshman QB at number one on the depth chart? Do you have anyone other than freshmen QBs on the roster? Didn't OU lose a pretty good LB to the draft?

no.Job is OPEN so far......

yes. juco transfer

yes.Arguably better talent in the linebacker slot now than at any time in the last 3-4 years.

will you guys get a game? you bet. will your offensive line be able to stop our front seven? doubt it but, we will see soon enough.
Have your coaching issues been sufficiently been addressed or have we just seen the tip of the iceberg?

don't start none.....won't be none.

[EstablishedSooner1967]

Unproven QB..... I cant think of very many if any QBs who have won the NC first shot out!

[Big Red Ron]

Unproven QB..... I cant think of very many if any QBs who have won the NC first shot out!What in the heck are you trying to say here?

[goingoneight]

We're still gonna win!!!

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w125/goingoneight/bish.jpg

[insuranceman_22]

Jello - nice job, I got your back (although I doubt you need help)!

[MiccoMacey]

Everybody keeps saying "We just need our QB to have a Colt McCoy type year".

Well, he was having the best year ever for a freshman prior to his injury at K-State.

It's highly unlikely we have a freshman QB who can do as well as he did, especially Nichols, who is a true freshman versus Colt who had a year in their system under his belt.

A veteran OLine, talented WRs, and probably the best RB platoon we've had since the 70's... this will all help our new QB.

But to expect our QB to "just do as well as Colt"? That's biting off a lot.

[stoopified]

Legit of course,then again I am often guilty of ODing on Crimson Kool-aid.

[Jello Biafra]

Jello - nice job, I got your back (although I doubt you need help)!



;)

[stoopified]

We have only had 2 true freshmen starters at qb(Gundy ,Holieway).Neither of them started until midseason.Holieway taking over for a qb who broke his leg in the UM game(I refuse to name the SOB),and Gundy who beat out Steve Collins at mid-year.It is IMHO Bradfordwho is a redshirt frosh will be the man.The only redshirt freshman QB starters I can think of are Steve Collins,Tink Collins who took over after Steve's injury,Fuente,BLOWmar.None of these QBs exactly sparkled.Having said thatI must also state that none of them had the talent or coaching around them that Bradford has.Peering through my crimson-lensed eyes(genetic gift) I see a title looming on the horizon at season's end.

[Kray]

Next year is the year to contend.

This year, I see too many holes. Although I also see only one probable loss on the schedule. Should win or be favored in all games besides Texas. Build momentum, get a good surprise at QB, and prove we can defend a good passing team, and we might just surprise. I assume offense will not be as good as last season (losing Peterson, losing Thompson can't be overstated) but D will be improved.

[BajaOklahoma]

The goal is always the NC, always.
How many of us wrote off last year due to the idiots? How many expected us to make a BCS game or win the Big 12?
Set your expectations high and people tend to live up them.

Reasonable people also know that a NC isn't possible every year.
I think I'll wait and see what Bob has to say about this.

[Collier11]

I assume offense will not be as good as last season (losing Peterson, losing Thompson can't be overstated) but D will be improved.


While I see where you are coming from, I happen to think that our offense may be a little more explosive this year. We had little big play ability last year after AD went down. If we can get better than average qb play, we could be very dynamic and very unpredictable. I for one have a lot of excitement towards this years offense mainly due to our offensive line!

[Spray]

A new QB (no matter his year) is generally worth at least two losses. Doesn't mean we can't win it next year, but it is highly unlikely.

Just off the top of my head- first year QBs that won a national title-

Kosar & Holieway (as mentioned)
Leinart
Tee Martin

Any others you can think of?

[CU Sooner]

We have only had 2 true freshmen starters at qb(Gundy ,Holieway).Neither of them started until midseason.Holieway taking over for a qb who broke his leg in the UM game(I refuse to name the SOB),and Gundy who beat out Steve Collins at mid-year.It is IMHO Bradfordwho is a redshirt frosh will be the man.The only redshirt freshman QB starters I can think of are Steve Collins,Tink Collins who took over after Steve's injury,Fuente,BLOWmar.None of these QBs exactly sparkled.Having said thatI must also state that none of them had the talent or coaching around them that Bradford has.Peering through my crimson-lensed eyes(genetic gift) I see a title looming on the horizon at season's end.


Just a little disagreement, that situation was very similar to the one two years ago. Highly recruted qb who just had to play. Steve Collins was a pretty good qb who should have kept the starting job but gibbs made one of his great head coaching decisions:(

[htownsooner7]

What makes this offense different is:
(1)we may have the best offensive line in the country;
(2) we may have one of the top 5 groups of Rbs in the country;
(3) we may have one of the top 5 receiving corps in the country, including TEs.

There is reason to expect a lot out of this unit..

[Collier11]

EggggZaggly!

[HTown77095]

What I expect this year:

-Beat Texas
-Beat Miami
-Big 12 title
-BCS game

There's no reason why we can't beat Texas. Everyone has figured out their weak secondary, they lost some defense, we are gaining momentum while they are losing. I just don't see an NC this year.

But I feel the wait will be worth it: back-to-back NC titles in 2009 and 2010. Think about it, DeMarco will be a Senior and so will Nichol. Alittle bold I know, but I just HAD to take a sip of the Sooner kool aid...

*EDIT*-I hope that I am wrong about OU not being a legit NC contender this year!

[Big Red Ron]

A new QB (no matter his year) is generally worth at least two losses. Doesn't mean we can't win it next year, but it is highly unlikely.

Just off the top of my head- first year QBs that won a national title-

Kosar & Holieway (as mentioned)
Leinart
Tee Martin

Any others you can think of?Leinfart won as a Jr., right?

[insuranceman_22]

I see a lot of mention for the 08 season here. I realize that we'll have a good corp of RB's and should have a solid O-line, an experienced QB, a solid D......you get the picture, for 08..... But we may face the possibility of some guys jumping to the NFL, there's always the injury threat. I think Stoops is coaching for a MNC this season. (He will be in 08 also). We've got the talent to make a run this year, new QB included. Hal-Brad-Nich will be surrounded by very good talent this year. Offensively we don't have a weakness, barring possible QB play, but with all the talent surround him he's going to have a good chance to play well. I don't think we'll have a McCoy type year, but we'll be able to run the ball better than his team and we should be able to defend the pass very well this year! I think we'll be a surprise (sort of) team at the end of the season.....now pass that damn Kool-Aid!

[goingoneight]

Leinfart won as a Jr., right?

Leinert was a sophomore when they caimed LSU's title in 2003. They (USC) were still pretty damn good, though green in 2003 under Leinert, as he was invited to the Heisman ceremony.

[stoopified]

Just a little disagreement, that situation was very similar to the one two years ago. Highly recruted qb who just had to play. Steve Collins was a pretty good qb who should have kept the starting job but gibbs made one of his great head coaching decisions:(
You've lost your mind if you think Steve Collins was a etter qb than Cale.Gibbs mistake was underutilizing Gundy especially as a frosh and soph.

[Spray]

Leinfart won as a Jr., right?

When they "won" it was his first year under center. That's more along the lines of the point I was after- no matter the QB's year in school, if it is their first as the starter, the team will typically lose at least two games.

I was wondering if anyone could think of any other first-year starters that won a title.

Now a conference championship is certainly doable, but I think a national title is a stretch with a new QB. Sad thing is, this is the third year in row we are starting with a rook.

[IronHorseSooner]

I was wondering if anyone could think of any other first-year starters that won a title.

Tee Martin- Tennessee (year after Peyton left)
Weinke- FSU (I think that was his first year out of the nursing home:D )
I don't count Leinart because LSU was the champ that year, even though he was a first year starter.
Jamielle
Kosar?
Did Scott Frost @ Nebbish win one his first year after Frazier left?

[CU Sooner]

You've lost your mind if you think Steve Collins was a etter qb than Cale.Gibbs mistake was underutilizing Gundy especially as a frosh and soph.
We will have to agree to disagree, when Gundy was a frosh Collins was a better qb. Now if Gibbs had wanted to go to a full time pro offense and get away from option all together, then Gundy would have been the right choice. For the option offense they were running at the time, Collins was a much better qb.