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spaceman
3/18/2007, 04:12 PM
Regardless of seeding, I’m trying to measure what the expectation levels are for JC, once he starts making the NCAA tournament.

1.) From a percentage standpoint, how often do you expect Jeff to win his first round game in the NCAA tournament?

2.) From a percentage standpoint, how often do you expect Jeff to advance beyond the first week of the tournament (Sweet 16)?

SleestakSooner
3/18/2007, 04:37 PM
1.) 80% after ten years

2.) 50%

badger
3/18/2007, 04:57 PM
next year: ncaa bid, top half of big 12 standings
2008-09: sweet 16, big 12 championship for season or tourney.
09-10: final four, big 12 title(s)
Champs by 2011!!!
:D

Frozen Sooner
3/18/2007, 05:26 PM
Nobody dies. That's my basic level of expectation for men's basketball.

I do expect to at least make the NIT next year.

I do expect to at least make the NCAA tournament the year after and to very rarely miss it on on ongoing basis.

I expect that we'll win at least 50% of our first round games once Capel's system is fully installed.

I expect that we'll make the sweet 16 about 25% of the time.

AllAboutThe'O'
3/18/2007, 06:10 PM
With the impact freshmen we've seen in recent years, a run to the NCAA's next year isn't certainly out of the question, but I'm still cautiously optimistic. I'll be content with an NIT bid next season. The following season Jeff should start hitting his stride.

Boffingham
3/18/2007, 06:32 PM
2008 - beat the OU women's team

Soonerus
3/18/2007, 06:34 PM
We'll be back !!!!

Mixer!
3/18/2007, 06:59 PM
1. 90%

2. 75%

But that's me... ;)

Newbomb Turk
3/18/2007, 07:19 PM
2008 - beat the OU women's team

beat them, or do better than them?

Newbomb Turk
3/18/2007, 07:20 PM
oh - and I pretty much agree with Mike.

50%

25%

I'd like to see better than that, but you have to be realistic.

skycat
3/18/2007, 07:45 PM
I expect that we'll make the sweet 16 about 25% of the time.

That's a very high expectation.

Frozen Sooner
3/18/2007, 07:51 PM
That's a very high expectation.

Yes and no.

You figure that you should be running people through the system every four years-25% of the time you should have a senior-laden team. If you have a team full of seniors, you should be able to get to the sweet 16 about once every four years with the level of basketball OU traditionally plays. Heck, people complain about Sampson's lack of tourney success, and he made the Sweet 16 3 times in 12 years-25% of the time.

I don't see any reason why we shouldn't hold Capel to the same sort of standard.

skycat
3/18/2007, 08:46 PM
Yes and no.
Heck, people complain about Sampson's lack of tourney success, and he made the Sweet 16 3 times in 12 years-25% of the time.

I don't see any reason why we shouldn't hold Capel to the same sort of standard.

That's sort of my point. I don't think that Sooner fans understood just how good of a coach Sampson is.

I frankly don't expect Capel to have the same sort of success. Especially considering that the Big 12 is looking to be a much tougher conference over the next 5 years in comparison to the last 5 IMO.

Frozen Sooner
3/18/2007, 08:52 PM
That's sort of my point. I don't think that Sooner fans understood just how good of a coach Sampson is.

I frankly don't expect Capel to have the same sort of success. Especially considering that the Big 12 is looking to be a much tougher conference over the next 5 years in comparison to the last 5 IMO.

I agree that it's a high standard.

However, for the last 12 years I had to hear people complain about Sampson's supposed lack of tourney success.

Obviously, the standard for Sooner hoops is much higher than I thought it was, because making the Sweet Sixteen a quarter of the time is unacceptable.

Therefore, should Capel not make the Sweet Sixteen at least 1/4 of the time, then he's not as successful as the guy that our fanbase was clamoring to get rid of, and he's not meeting our expectations.

skycat
3/18/2007, 08:55 PM
People complained, but it wasn't like Sampson was going to get run out of town based on the on-court performance of his teams.

Frozen Sooner
3/18/2007, 08:59 PM
People complained, but it wasn't like Sampson was going to get run out of town based on the on-court performance of his teams.

Probably not, but people were pretty vocal about it.

Now, as an absolutely honest appraisal of what I'd be happy with from a performance standpoint:

NCAA tournament every year with rare exceptions.

A coherent recruiting strategy that focused on building a top team over the course of years.

Winning 19-20 games every year.

Playing at least to seed in the NCAA tourney 75% of the time, playing above seed 20% of the time.

Getting fans out to the games. Not sure what he needs to do to do that, 'cause the last two highly successful coaches at OU had that problem as well.

Boffingham
3/19/2007, 01:10 PM
beat them, or do better than them?

5 on 5 for 40 minutes...

I bet the LNC would sell out...for the first time in a while for the men

fwsooner22
3/19/2007, 01:15 PM
Coach's track record says winner. In my book this years team overacheived. I will be patient for now...........

badger
3/19/2007, 01:21 PM
2008 - beat the OU women's team
i do not promote the beating of our women's basketball team :mad:

...because they need an undefeated season before paris graduates :D

NormanPride
3/19/2007, 02:29 PM
I think it's hard for people to accept that a team that lost < 10 games and won the conference tourney can go our in the second round. It happens to the best of teams, but we're used to OU football.

Personally, I just want to have fun. I want to make the tourney each year, and I want all our games to be fun to watch. Sure, we'll get whupped every now-and-again, but I want the rest of the games to be fun to watch. Even if Sampson's teams won by 20, they weren't fun to watch.

crawfish
3/19/2007, 04:35 PM
I just wanna be in the mix for the Big 12 title most years, and the Final Four every now and then. A dominant streak would be nice, too. ;)

Dio
3/19/2007, 05:27 PM
National Champions every damn year.

We are OU, after all. ;)

LittleWingSooner
3/20/2007, 10:37 AM
Billy Tubbs made it to the NCAA Tournament 9 times in 14 years. He only made it out of the first 2 rounds 4 times(1985, 1988, 1989, 1990) that's not even 50% of the time. He's got to the 3rd round or better 44% of the time at OU.

Kelvin made it to the NCAA Tournament 11 times in 12 seasons.

He made it out of the first weekend 3 times(1999, 2002, 2003) That's 27% of the time.

At best Capel will be somewhere in between these 2. If he goes to the NCAA Tournament the next 11 years that's great. I don't care if he never makes it out of the 2nd round.

stoopified
3/20/2007, 02:35 PM
oh - and I pretty much agree with Mike.

50%

25%

I'd like to see better than that, but you have to be realistic.Ditto.

spaceman
3/20/2007, 03:10 PM
NCAA tournament every year with rare exceptions.

A coherent recruiting strategy that focused on building a top team over the course of years.

Playing at least to seed in the NCAA tourney 75% of the time, playing above seed 20% of the time.If Jeff makes the tournament for 11 straight years as a 13 seed, and he only wins 2 first round games is that all we should expect from our basketball program. That's why I prefaced the 2 questions the way I did. If we want to be considered a top 20 program, making the tournament should not be the ultimate goal?

BT

1.) 7/9 = 77% If Billy wins 2 more games his % is at 100%.
2.) 4/9 = 44% If Billy wins 2 more games his % is at 66%.

KS

1.) 5/11 = 45% If Kelvin wins 2 more games his % is at 63%.
2.) 3/11 = 27%. If Kelvin wins 2 more games his % is at 45%.

Thanks for replying. There is no right or wrong answer. I'm just trying to find out how many fans there are who care enough to actually have a specific expectation level that can be measured. Thanks for the correction LW. He won 5 and lost 6. But you already knew that. Right?

LittleWingSooner
3/20/2007, 03:14 PM
If Jeff makes the tournament for 11 straight years as a 13 seed, and he only wins 2 first round games is that all we should expect from our basketball program. That's why I prefaced the 2 questions the way I did. If we want to be considered a top 20 program, making the tournament should not be the ultimate goal?

BT

1.) 7/9 = 77% If Billy wins 2 more games his % is at 100%.
2.) 4/9 = 44% If Billy wins 2 more games his % is at 66%.

KS

1.) 5/6 = 45% If Kelvin wins 2 more games his % is at 63%.
2.) 3/11 = 27%. If Kelvin wins 2 more games his % is at 45%.

Thanks for replying. There is no right or wrong answer. I'm just trying to find out how many fans there who care enough to actually have a specific expectation level that can be measured.

5/6 is 83% unless there's some form of new math.

spaceman
3/20/2007, 03:38 PM
I don't care if he never makes it out of the 2nd round.Do you have a percentage for question number 1?

1.) ?
2.) 0%

LittleWingSooner
3/20/2007, 07:44 PM
At least 75%

Probably 25% in the second number.

King Crimson
3/20/2007, 08:14 PM
*kids go to class, do the work, graduate, don't get in trouble
*recruit good players, and the best players in-state
*go to the NCAA tournament and play to or above seed 70% of the time. things happen--it's hypocritical to pull for upsets and not expect it to happen to your team
*finish above .500 every year in conference--starting in 08 probably.

hopes:
* be a team that is talked about nationally as a "sweet 16" type team most years
*improve and play hard throughout the year, and be dangerous come tourney time
*money as a team from the FT line