Bad, Bad Night for the Sooners (In Iowa and Texas)

[OUSKINS]

I think the sound you heard was night was the door slamming shut on our realistic chances at the NCAA. I say, "realistic," because we of course still control our own desitny. If we win 4 of our last 5, or even 3 of the last 5 (if two are against A+M and KU) we could still very well get to the inside of the bubble, but realistically last night hurt as badly.

Not only did we look terrible against a poor team, but the Tech win over A+M stung as well. It vaults (rightfully so) Tech past us in the committee's eyes-- they swept A+M and have other quality wins that really trump ours. Even if we finish ahead of them in the conference, Tech looks like a more legit selection at this point, assuming they don't totally collapse down the stretch.

It also hurts us this Saturday for two reasons

1. A+M would have come in ranked #6, on a major hot streak, and kind of "due" for a loss. Now, they will most assuredly be prepared and hungry to erase the loss from last night.

2. Even should we win, by virtue of their home loss to Tech, it makes our potential win look a little less impressive.

We know that UT, KU, A+M, and (most likely) OSU are locks. I think the battle is between us, KSU, and Tech for what will most probably be one more bid from the conference. I view Tech as our biggest problem because we at least still control our fate in the one game versus KSU.

Last night was a real stinger for many reasons.

I'm not crying in my Wheaties though. I'm still pleased we stand where we stand. I expected us to lose one of these past two road games. Deep down, I still think we're a "good" NIT team, but not quite a Dance team this year. Last night really hurt our chances at reversing that.

[LittleWingSooner]

I think the sound you heard was night was the door slamming shut on our realistic chances at the NCAA.

No you didn't. It's tough to win the Big 12 on the road. We need to win our home games. If we win 3 of our next 5 we have a good shot at getting in. If we win 2 of our next 5 and 2 games in the Big 12 Tourney we have a shot at making it.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I think the sound you heard was night was the door slamming shut on our realistic chances at the NCAA. I say, "realistic," because we of course still control our own desitny. If we win 4 of our last 5, or even 3 of the last 5 (if two are against A+M and KU) we could still very well get to the inside of the bubble, but realistically last night hurt as badly.

Not only did we look terrible against a poor team, but the Tech win over A+M stung as well. It vaults (rightfully so) Tech past us in the committee's eyes-- they swept A+M and have other quality wins that really trump ours. Even if we finish ahead of them in the conference, Tech looks like a more legit selection at this point, assuming they don't totally collapse down the stretch.

It also hurts us this Saturday for two reasons

1. A+M would have come in ranked #6, on a major hot streak, and kind of "due" for a loss. Now, they will most assuredly be prepared and hungry to erase the loss from last night.

2. Even should we win, by virtue of their home loss to Tech, it makes our potential win look a little less impressive.

We know that UT, KU, A+M, and (most likely) OSU are locks. I think the battle is between us, KSU, and Tech for what will most probably be one more bid from the conference. I view Tech as our biggest problem because we at least still control our fate in the one game versus KSU.

Last night was a real stinger for many reasons.

I'm not crying in my Wheaties though. I'm still pleased we stand where we stand. I expected us to lose one of these past two road games. Deep down, I still think we're a "good" NIT team, but not quite a Dance team this year. Last night really hurt our chances at reversing that.

I only disagree in as much that when a number of the media, including a couple ESPN guys did basically a mock NCAA tourney selection which was with the help of the selection committee they came out of the process agreeing with the selection committee that the # of teams from a conference is not really a consideration. However whether TT is in the Big 12 South or in the Pac-10 there is no arguement that they have a better tourney profile than OU even if they finish a game (or possibly even 2 games) back in the standings.

Otherwise I totally concur. I haven't given up hope but I thought before conference play started we would finish 6-10. We are sitting on 6 wins now with 5 to play, so I'm happy with where we are.

[stoopified]

Iam not entirely discouraged by last night's loss because we COULD HAVE foldedour tentsshortly after halftime and gotten completely wiped put by 25-30 + points and that DIDn't happen.Capel got us regrouped and made adjustments and we fought back to have ashot at winning if we hit one or two key open shot.Maybe I'm upbeat because I expected this ti bean NIT year at best and 17-18 wins were possible.Everyone told me in preseason I was overly optimisticand most picked OU to have a losing or 500 record.

I still think we will win 2-3 more games tgis year (beating anyone but MU would be an upset and we play the Tigers on the road)but I think WE WILL upset at leat one or two teams down the stretch.Capel did a great job last night as he has all season,its up to the players to make the plays AND shts.Boomer Sooner, baby!

[jdsooner]

What happened to Nate Carter last night? Only 2 points!

[PDXsooner]

forget the bubble. either win the big 12 tourney or it's NIT time.

[LittleWingSooner]

That's not true. OU wins 3 games then OU's gonna probably make the NCAA Tourney.

[birddog]

3 more wins would leave us at 18-12 (that includes a first round loss). no way we get in with anything less than 20 wins, considering the lack of quality wins we have.

but hey, the big 12 tourney is like playing at home for us, so you never know.

[PDXsooner]

not enough quality wins, and ONE road win at this point. those won't get you into the dance.

[LittleWingSooner]

But if we win 3 games we'll have beaten 3 quality teams. 4 wins locks it for us.

[Collier11]

We need to win 2 of 3 at home plus our remaining road games plus atleast one game in the tourney and possibly two. Otherwise we are OUT

[TopDawg]

3 more wins would leave us at 18-12 (that includes a first round loss). no way we get in with anything less than 20 wins, considering the lack of quality wins we have.

but hey, the big 12 tourney is like playing at home for us, so you never know.

Here are a few at-large 2006 NCAA tourney teams with their record and best wins:

Alabama 17-12 (actually had a few good wins, lost first game of conf. tourney)
Indiana 18-11 (Kentucky, MSU, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin?)
Seton Hall 18-11 (WVU, Syracuse?, lost first game of conf. tourney)
Arizona 19-11 (Kansas, in the first game of the year)
Wisconsin 19-12 (MSU, Indiana?, Ohio State)

Our Oklahoma State and, depending on how they finish, Texas Tech wins are equal to some of those. If we win three more regular season games, we will have racked up two more quality wins. It's not that long of a shot. If we can win our home games, which I understand is a tall order, we'll be in good shape.

[TopDawg]

The good news is that 3 of those 5 teams are 4-syllable teams that end in "a".

[birddog]

well, remember the colorado team from last year that went 22-10 but missed out on an at-large berth?

seems the last few years the trend has been to give out berths to mid-majors rather than majors with 10+ losses.

it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. hopefully we take care of business and we don't give the committee any choice.

[tommieharris91]

I keep hearing the mid-majors are weak this year. For example, Drexel and Wichita State both lost during this week. They're both sliding off the bubble.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I keep hearing the mid-majors are weak this year. For example, Drexel and Wichita State both lost during this week. They're both sliding off the bubble.

I think Wichita St has pretty much no chance of making it as an at-large after losing at home to Drake. (anybody upset now that we didn't get Turgeon as a coach?)

Yeah, right now based on what I've seen on bracketology and bubble watch most of the Mid major teams are either IN or OUT at this point. Very few on the bubble. Of course if a team like Butler loses or possibly even VCU it they would get at-large bid but it looks like Gonzaga has to win their conference or they are out and the only other Mids that look to be probably in the last 10-12 in or first 10-12 out are Mo State,Old Dominion and Drexel, who as you said lost earlier this week. MAybe Xavier, if you consider the A-10 a mid-major.

It sure looks to me like the majors are going to be getting most if not nearly all the late at-large bids this year.

[birddog]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=whelliston_kyle&id=2767776

actually, alot of the at-large bids will be decided by some of these games.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=whelliston_kyle&id=2767776

actually, alot of the at-large bids will be decided by some of these games.


I think ESPN is mostly trying to pimp bracketbusters which obviously makes sense for them to do. I don't think at this point of the year that you couldn't find games that aren't meaningful but it the case of mid-majors the games that really count are the conference championshiop games.

Going by that article.

Winthrop-Mo State Right now Mo State is in the projected field, Winthrop is projected to win their league. Mo State could certainly be hurt by losing but Winthrop is going to have to win their tourney win or lose this game.

Albany-Boise St Neither team is going to get an at-large bid

Appalachian St-Wichita St Wichita St pretty well did their at-large bid in by losing at home to Drake and going 8-8 with an RPI in the 80's

Holy Cross - Hofstra Holy Cross is projected as an auto-bid to the tourney but their seed (13) is lower than any of the projected at-large teams. They might be on the bubble if they beat Hofstra and make it to their championship game.

Southern ILL-Butler Good game, both teams are NCAA tourney locks though and could be 3-5 seeds.

Kent St-George Mason Kent St has a chance but probably has to win their conference, no chance for George Mason other than auto-bid

Drexel @ Creighton could be a true bubble game, that would be one to keep an eye on.

I could go on but I would submit that the following games this weekend have far greater tourney implications

OU-A&M
FSU @ Vir
Kentucky @ Bama
Maryland @ Clem
Ga Tech @ Duke
Louisville @ Marquette
Miss @ Arkansas

[birddog]

now, we definitely need to win out and reach the tourney final.

;)

[birddog]

now, we need to win the big 12 tourney.

[OUSKINS]

Technically speaking, I still think we could earn an at-large with this scenerio:

--Win our last 3 games. Finish regular season 18-11, 9-7 in Big 12.
--Win 3 games in Tourney. Lose Championship. Leaves us at 21-12, winning 6 of our last 7 games. It would also mean wins over Texas, KU, KState, and at least one more "big boy" in the conference tourney.

I see about a .000001% chance of that happening, but for the record......

[pardon the interREDtion]

Our chances of making the large two step are equal to the girls not making it to theirs.

[LittleWingSooner]

Our chances of making the large two step are equal to the girls not making it to theirs.

Who really gives a damn if the the girls make the NCAA Tourney though?

[tommieharris91]

Who really gives a damn if the the girls make the NCAA Tourney though?

The gals can most def go further.