Sooners make ESPN Bubble Watch

[tommieharris91]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=43

Looks like some in the national media have taken notice. We certainly ain't in right now. We gotta win the rest of our road games, the only one of those that looks really tough right now is at Kansas State. We also need to beat 2 of texass, atm, and Kansas at home in order to feel fairly safe. If we go 4-2 down the stretch, we will be 8-2 L10 going into the conference tournament. If those 2 losses come at home, we will be right on the bubble and probably need to play better than our seed in the conference tournament to make the NCAAs. Any other scenario where we lose one of our remaining road games or go 3-3 down this stretch will position us for an NIT bid.

Now thinking optimistically, winning all 6 of our last games will probably earn us 2nd or 3rd in the conference. That will probably be good enough for, at highest, a 5 seed in the NCAAs depending on how we do in the conference tourney.

[Frozen Sooner]

If Capel can get us into the tournament with the collection of talent on campus right now (and don't get me wrong, I love these guys) then he deserves a big whopper of a raise.

[SleestakSooner]

I noticed that too earlier and emailed Andy Glockner commending him on being one of the first to notice.

his reply...

No problem. I was surprised they were in reasonable position, but they are. Unlike Iowa … man are their fans ****ed at me for nixing their 14-11 team.

LOL

Anyhow I am going with the 2-2-2 plan. We win two on the road, two at home and two in conference tourney. That would put us at worst at 20-11 with 5 good wins. It would make it hard to ignore OU without asking the guys to win em all.

[Octavian]

@ Iowa St.

Texas A&M

@ Mizzou

Texas

KU

@ KState



Going 4-2 in this stretch would put us at 19-11 (10-6).


Win another game in the conference tourney and this is a 20-win season.


Still a lot of ball to be played....but even talking about the possibility of 20 wins in '07 is amazing considering where we were....even a month ago.


Capel has done an outstanding job.

[Readyfor8]

I am going to be extremly happy if we make the tournament, and there is no reason why we can't. My question about mock drafts like this, is how can someone make an arguement that Oklahoma State is a lock? They have a good RPI, and they play good at home although when it takes you 3 Overtimes to beat Texas at home and 2 to beat Texas Tech, it could be argued that you haven't exactly won with gusto.

My point is doesn't a win over Pitt get wiped out by a loss to Colorado in the lock department? And assuming we close out the season ahead of Oklahoma State in the conference, how would they justify taking a team that didn't perform as well as Oklahoma entire second half of the season?

Playing at Texas tonight, at Texas Tech in two weeks and Texas A&M looming large still on their schedule, if we were to win 3 games and they win 4 (all of them except the ones mentioned above) we would finish with the same record in conference. I don't see 6 teams coming from the BigXII this season. So if Oklahoma State is a lock and we finish ahead of them, we are still boned unless something miraculous happens and people stop touting a team that is less than 10 points from being out of the RPI top 50.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

@ Iowa St.

Texas A&M

@ Mizzou

Texas

KU

@ KState



Going 4-2 in this stretch would put us at 19-11 (10-6).


Win another game in the conference tourney and this is a 20-win season.


Still a lot of ball to be played....but even talking about the possibility of 20 wins in '07 is amazing considering where we were....even a month ago.


Capel has done an outstanding job.


ESPN pretty much had to include us now to have any credibility. We may not be in if the season ended today but we certainly would be getting close.

I know that 20 wins or in some cases 21 wins has been thrown out there as a number we have to get to make the tourney but keep in mind as well that we have 1 or 2 less games than many of the other bubble teams. The total number of losses should be just as relevant as total wins. As Octavian said, 4-2 down the stretch gets us to 19-11. There might be a number of other teams that have 19 wins as well but with 12 or 13 losses. You can argue that not playing a couple more games against Longwood type teams might hurt our overall win total but we could certainly be 16-8 or 17-8 right now and not really have a better tourney profile.

Just my opinion of course but if we win 4 of the next 6 games, even the least impressive combination of the 4 @ISU,@MU,@KSU, Tex I think we should be a near lock, even if we lost a first round Big 12 tourney game. I think 10-6 in the South is close to if not as good as 11-5 in the North.

I think even 3-3 with a couple Big 12 tourney wins would give us at least a shot when you consider that would probably mean beating a top 4 seed in the second round and would likely put in the semis against KU or A&M, both top ten teams. A loss to either in that hypothetical would mean we would have finished the season 19-12, 11-8 in conf play, 6-4 in our last 10 games 3 of our losses being to top 10 teams and our RPI would likely be in the 30's or low 40's. Not saying I'd give us a 50/50 chance in that scenario but we would have a better case than a lot of other bubble teams.

[tommieharris91]

Lunardi has OU as his first team out in his newest bracket. Kansas State and tech are both listed in his last four in. I'll post when collegerpi posts their bracket later today.


Just my opinion of course but if we win 4 of the next 6 games, even the least impressive combination of the 4 @ISU,@MU,@KSU, Tex I think we should be a near lock, even if we lost a first round Big 12 tourney game. I think 10-6 in the South is close to if not as good as 11-5 in the North.

This would probably be the worst scenario that OU has to keep their chance of getting in. A scenario like this would probably be good for 5th in the conference, and if so, OU has to beat the worst team in the conference in the first round. Beat whoever is the 4 seed after that and they should be safe in this case.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Lunardi has OU as his first team out in his newest bracket. Kansas State and tech are both listed in his last four in. I'll post when collegerpi posts their bracket later today.



This would probably be the worst scenario that OU has to keep their chance of getting in. A scenario like this would probably be good for 5th in the conference, and if so, OU has to beat the worst team in the conference in the first round. Beat whoever is the 4 seed after that and they should be safe in this case.

If you go by Lunardi's bracket it looks like the last 4 teams in are actually the first 4 teams out. KSU and TT aren't listed in his field and he has the Big 12 with 4 teams. That would make us the 5th team out though still looking pretty good and moving up the list quickly.

[tommieharris91]

If you go by Lunardi's bracket it looks like the last 4 teams in are actually the first 4 teams out. KSU and TT aren't listed in his field and he has the Big 12 with 4 teams. That would make us the 5th team out though still looking pretty good and moving up the list quickly.

Good point. By the way, he has us ahead of Purdue in his pecking order. They beat us 74-71 in Maui earlier in the season, and right now I'd say they have a better resume than us.

Edit: They have about as much going against them as for them. Losses at Indiana State, at Minnesota and 5-6 in the Big 10/11.

[OSUAggie]

If you guys go 4-2 down the stretch you'll get in. With the remaining schedule, that might prove to be too difficult. Even the "easy" games are pretty tough (@ISU @Mizzou).

[IronHorseSooner]

Lunardi has OU as his first team out in his newest bracket. Kansas State and tech are both listed in his last four in. I'll post when collegerpi posts their bracket later today.

Why is Tech ahead of us? They have double-digit losses, are 7th in the conference, and are on a losing streak. They have also lost to Baylor. Therefore, much like lOSUr, they have a great win (Kansas) and a bad loss (Baylor). Is this the "Bobby-Factor?" We are on a 4-game win streak, and have beaten TTECH. KSTATE-I can understand, TTECH- I cannot. :mad:

[Jeopardude]

If you guys go 4-2 down the stretch you'll get in. With the remaining schedule, that might prove to be too difficult. Even the "easy" games are pretty tough (@ISU @Mizzou).

I might have to agree with you. :mad:

[OSUAggie]

Why is Tech ahead of us? They have double-digit losses, are 7th in the conference, and are on a losing streak. They have also lost to Baylor. Therefore, much like lOSUr, they have a great win (Kansas) and a bad loss (Baylor). Is this the "Bobby-Factor?" We are on a 4-game win streak, and have beaten TTECH. KSTATE-I can understand, TTECH- I cannot. :mad:

Bobby has something to do with it. Beating Kansas and Texas A&M in the same week helps, as well.

Meanwhile, you're 2-7 agains the RPI top 50 and did absolutely nothing in non-conference while looking bad doing it. IF you win some of the big games coming up (4-2, as mentioned above, should work), you'll be in good shape. You still only have 1 "marquee" win (OSU) and one "good" win (Tech).

[fwsooner22]

Bobby has something to do with it. Beating Kansas and Texas A&M in the same week helps, as well.

Meanwhile, you're 2-7 agains the RPI top 50 and did absolutely nothing in non-conference while looking bad doing it. IF you win some of the big games coming up (4-2, as mentioned above, should work), you'll be in good shape. You still only have 1 "marquee" win (OSU) and one "good" win (Tech).


The truth is neither of us has any real business in the tournament. However, in years past we have been told that "it is how you finish". If that is the case we have a shot. Aggie is on the serious downslope of that curve and very little chance to right the ship. They lost to Colorado which is the second year in a row that has happened. WOW. All of this amazes me......I think we may well have our coach for a very long time. Capelball.:D

[tommieharris91]

Texas Tech's Resume (on 2/12 according to collegerpi.com):

Record: 15-10 (4-6, 7th Big XII)
RPI: 45
SOS: 10
Good Wins: vs Arkansas (I think in Little Rock), at Kansas State, Kansas, Texas A&M
Bad Losses: at Baylor, at Missouri (RPI 97)
L10: 4-6, including 5 straight Ls

Playing UNLV, Marquette, and Air Force is what is propping up their computer numbers.

[OSUAggie]

The truth is neither of us has any real business in the tournament. However, in years past we have been told that "it is how you finish". If that is the case we have a shot. Aggie is on the serious downslope of that curve and very little chance to right the ship. They lost to Colorado which is the second year in a row that has happened. WOW. All of this amazes me......I think we may well have our coach for a very long time. Capelball.:D

By "neither of us" do you mean OU/Tech or OU/OSU?

[fwsooner22]

By "neither of us" do you mean OU/Tech or OU/OSU?

I could care less about Tech........

[OSUAggie]

hmm... How does OSU have no business in the tournament?

[John Kochtoston]

Why is Tech ahead of us? They have double-digit losses, are 7th in the conference, and are on a losing streak. They have also lost to Baylor. Therefore, much like lOSUr, they have a great win (Kansas) and a bad loss (Baylor). Is this the "Bobby-Factor?" We are on a 4-game win streak, and have beaten TTECH. KSTATE-I can understand, TTECH- I cannot. :mad:

Biggest reason is that big wins help you more than bad losses hurt you. The NCAA is trying to encourage teams to play tough non-con schedules, and with their "secret" RPI bonuses, reward teams who play tougher schedules. Granted, TTech had no control over playing Kansas or A&M, but they did beat Arkansas. This is why Pokie State is in better position than OU is right now, as Okla. A&M has a nice non-con win, plus a win against Texas.

EDIT: apparently, The NCAA no longer uses the "secret" adustments. Still, the formula is weighted to reward quality wins more than penalize for bad losses, just not as much.

[fwsooner22]

hmm... How does OSU have no business in the tournament?


Look dude....I realize your boys are in the top 25....but they have played like crap the last few times out and had a game handed to them by a team that had lost 3 or 4 in row ON YOUR COURT.....You are no longer "in". No matter what you think.

Your coach is going around crying because you don't have enough players to practice, which means your coach is making excuses. Your kids are sleeping in meetings. When that starts happening the next chapter or two of the story is usually ugly. Let's see what happens tonight.

I'd hop off that championship podium if I was you.

By the way we don't have a coach who makes excuses.

In case you don't know that is an "opinion" which can be proved right or wrong. That's the fun of it.

[tommieharris91]

Okie State is in as of now based on an RPI of 20, an 18-5 record, and wins over Pitt, Missouri State, and Texas Tech, although losing at Colorado cancels out the Pitt win. Lose any more games and all of a sudden they don't look like a lock.

It could really hurt the entire Big 12 if tech keeps sliding and their RPI drops below 50.

[SleestakSooner]

Okie State is in as of now based on an RPI of 20, an 18-5 record, and wins over Pitt, Missouri State, and Texas Tech, although losing at Colorado cancels out the Pitt win. Lose any more games and all of a sudden they don't look like a lock.

It could really hurt the entire Big 12 if tech keeps sliding and their RPI drops below 50.

Absolutely, I am hoping that Tech and Pokes can hang in there and keep in the running as long as they remain behind OU in the conference standings. It would only help the Sooners.

Right now what OU needs to do is just keep finding ways to win. Especially now that the national media has begun to take notice.

[Cam]

Am I the only one that thinks we need to win out to make the the big dance? We have zero marquee wins out of conference and our only road win so far is against Baylor. That is, unless you want to count the win against Chaminade. Considering that the pokes have not won a true road game this year, is it really a marquee win to beat them in Norman? TT has lost 5 in a row. Regardless of how they played earlier this year, they're on a downward spiral, big time. That's not exactly an NCAA worthy description of a team folks. There is a lot of work to do if our boys want a ticket to the big dance. I think this team can do it, but we'll have to wait and see.

Having said that, I'm pleasantly surprised that we're not in the bottom 3rd of the conference. The team and coaches have done a hell of a job so far this year and I applaud their efforts. They've greatly surpassed my expectations for this season.

[tommieharris91]

Winning out will make us a at least a 7, maybe as high as a 5. Winning out and winning the conference tournament will put OU on a 13-win streak. We could be as high as a 4 seed if that happens. This of course, is a distant reality. I don't see OU getting past Kansas.

[John Kochtoston]

Am I the only one that thinks we need to win out to make the the big dance? We have zero marquee wins out of conference and our only road win so far is against Baylor. That is, unless you want to count the win against Chaminade. Considering that the pokes have not won a true road game this year, is it really a marquee win to beat them in Norman? TT has lost 5 in a row. Regardless of how they played earlier this year, they're on a downward spiral, big time. That's not exactly an NCAA worthy description of a team folks. There is a lot of work to do if our boys want a ticket to the big dance. I think this team can do it, but we'll have to wait and see.

Having said that, I'm pleasantly surprised that we're not in the bottom 3rd of the conference. The team and coaches have done a hell of a job so far this year and I applaud their efforts. They've greatly surpassed my expectations for this season.

I agree on both points, especially if the Pokes screw the pooch against tejas. We need to go 5-1, with the one not coming against Iowa State. Tall order, but not totally out of the realm of possibility. We could also go 4-2, pick up a quality win in the Big XII tourney, and have a shot.

But yes, Capel and Co. have performed incredibly well this year. OU hoops continues to remain in good hands.

[SleestakSooner]

I don't think we need to win out but we can't lose to ISU or MU and we need to win at least one of the home games left against three of the top teams in the conference. Overall one way or another we need to end up 4-2 over the next six.

[Cam]

I don't think we need to win out but we can't lose to ISU or MU and we need to win at least one of the home games left against three of the top teams in the conference. Overall one way or another we need to end up 4-2 over the next six.
I can't help but think that the way some other teams are playing that we'll need to run it, or drop only one and win at least 2 games in the Big 12 tournament. If we do either of those, we're a lock. Anything less and we'll be at the mercy of the NCAA committee and it'll depend on how many mid-majors they put in.

[tommieharris91]

ESPN says the mid-majors really ain't doin much this year. I think any combination of 4-2 over our final six gets us in, especially if Kansas State plays well.

BTW, the top half of the conference could use tech beating atm tomorrow, except atm of course.

[OUstud]

OU is the first "Cloudy" (behind 5 sunny and mostly clears) in ESPN's weather report thing during the Aggy-Whorn game. The announcer was hyping Nate Carter as all-Big XII and said the conference could get 6 teams in...

[tommieharris91]

Who's the 6th?

Big XII locks:
Kansas
atm

In the bubble:
Kansas State
texas
aggy (was a lock until 29-pt smacking at texas)

Out the bubble:
OU
tech

[SleestakSooner]

ESPN says the mid-majors really ain't doin much this year. I think any combination of 4-2 over our final six gets us in, especially if Kansas State plays well.

BTW, the top half of the conference could use tech beating atm tomorrow, except atm of course.

I am not worried about catching A&M or anyone else catching them at this point. Would rather get rid of any competition for that final spot in the big dance. So please everyone beat the petulance out of Bobby Knight and keep him a Lubbock loser.

Speaking of mid-majors not doing so well... Gonzaga is losing at home to Santa Clara right now by double digits. We need teams like the Zags to falter as the Sooners excel!

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Gonzaga losing helps a little. It just about assures that the WCC will be a one bid league.

I don't think there is any way that we have to run the table to make the tourney, in fact I see pretty much zero change we aren't in the tourney if we finish 5-1. Even 4-2 I think we are pretty much a lock unless quite a few teams steal automatic bids. If we wind up 10-6 (possibly tied with KSU and Tex) and OSU and TT are both behind us by 2 games in the standings I see no way that they make the field and we don't.

If you go by bracketology (2-11), here is more or less the competition at this point:

In:
Florida St
Mo State
Xavier
Notre Dame
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Georgia
Illinois

Out:

Kansas State
Syracuse
Texas Tech
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Old Dominion
Drexel

Now just look for example at Ga Tech 16-8, 4-6 They are listed as in ahead of OU but they have some work just to finish .500 in the league and their upcoming schedule: @FSU, @Duke (who needs a win themselves)WF,@Virginia, North Carolina, BC They have to go 4-2 just to get to .500 in the league and 3-3 will be tough.

I wouldn't even write off our chances of the tourney going 9-7 with a couple Big 12 tourney wins. A number of teams on this list are going to have a hard time even going .500 the rest of the way.

[OSUAggie]

Hopefully this is one of the years that the media is all over the ACC (not that that's unusual) but the selection committee doesn't agree. I think the Big XII has a decent shot at 6 teams. Maybe 7. The only problem is that some of the top teams (KSU, OU, aTm & TT) did pretty much nothing in the non-conference season to enhance the rep of the conference. The best win of those 4 teams in non-conference might be K-State over USC (with apologies to the Aggies triumph over Winthrop and Tech over Arkansas). That's not too good.

[fwsooner22]

hmm... How does OSU have no business in the tournament?


You have to win a few games to stay off the bubble...........:D

[wishbonesooner]

Originally Posted by OSUAggie
hmm... How does OSU have no business in the tournament?

Seriously, the way the pokes have played, you honestly think they belong in the tourney? Last I checked, there aren't any tourney games in GIA.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Right now I like our chances better of winning the Big 12 tourney (which isn't saying I like our chances much) than I do of making the field as an at-large team.

Accoring to braketology KSU is the 7th team OUT of the tourney right now and they are 19-8, 8-4 with an RPI of 50. Clemson is the first team out and they have an RPI of 30. If you go by seeds it looks like OSU is currently the 6th team in the field, so they are probably one more loss from being on the wrong side of the bubble.

[fwsooner22]

As I said earlier in this thread OU and Aggie do not deserve the Tournament. We are not that good.

We are better off playing in the NIT and getting three or four more games. We would not win a game in the Tournament. We need as much time with a new coach and new system as can be provided. That being said the NIT is the ticket. By the way, that makes me ill.

But hey, maybe we get a shot at playing Aggie in the NIT and sending their National Championship hopes home to stoolcity.

[tommieharris91]

Right now I like our chances better of winning the Big 12 tourney (which isn't saying I like our chances much) than I do of making the field as an at-large team.

Accoring to braketology KSU is the 7th team OUT of the tourney right now and they are 19-8, 8-4 with an RPI of 50. Clemson is the first team out and they have an RPI of 30. If you go by seeds it looks like OSU is currently the 6th team in the field, so they are probably one more loss from being on the wrong side of the bubble.

If you look at it again, okie state is the 4th team, not 6th team, in. Georgia Tech actually has a higher seed in that bracket than oSu. KSU's profile took a nosedive when SUC lost at Arizona St last night (about as equal as losing at Colorado right now).

Edit: pokers are actually 5th because Lunardi also missed putting West Virginia (as a 12 seed) into his last 4 in.

[stoopified]

If we makethe NIT I'll be happy,IF we make the NCAA I'll be AMAZED and happy.oSu should be prepared to join us in NIT(it will be their second straight).

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

If we makethe NIT I'll be happy,IF we make the NCAA I'll be AMAZED and happy.oSu should be prepared to join us in NIT(it will be their second straight).


We probably only need one more win in the final 4 games or the conf tourney in order to make it in the NIT. The NIT is seeded too though so even if we don't make the NCAA a couple wins would likely get us a home match-up in the first round.

Normally the NIT is a big letdown and if we are an NIT team next year I'll be disappointed but this year it will be an accomplishment.

[tommieharris91]

We NEED to win one of our next 5 to qualify for the NIT. I'm kinda worried.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

We NEED to win one of our next 5 to qualify for the NIT. I'm kinda worried.


I might be in the minority right now but I think we win tonight. MU's wins at ISU and OSU were impressive but the latter had more to do with how OSU is out of shape right now. I watched most of MU's win at home against Baylor and I thought Baylor played about as good as we did against ISU and they nearly won. MU has a little confidence right now but we come in a little under the radar tonight and I expect a pretty tame crowd. Honestly the new MU arena (The Paige...) is not nearly as tough to play at as the old one. They don't exactly have this game circled on their calender like KU so home court will not be a big factor.

We will probably turn the ball over a few more times but MU lives and dies with Hannah and Lawrence jacking up 3's. If we don't give up a lot of turnovers in the backcourt Carter and Longar could have a bunch of scoring opportunities inside.

Probably too late to make a push for the tourney but I think we win tonight.

[stoopified]

Normally the NIT is a big letdown and if we are an NIT team next year I'll be disappointed but this year it will be an accomplishment.[/QUOTE]Exactly.