NCAA Selection Committee

[Boffingham]

Say we finish the season with big wins at home against KU, ut, and tamu. Does the committee look at OU going into the B12 tourny as a "must win the tourney team," a "must win 2 games team," or a "thanks for playing, but you lost too many big games early team?"

We stumbled into the dance last year and still got an at large bid.

If we continue this hot streak into the tourney, I like our chances of getting selected and actually making it past the first and possibly the second round

[poke4christ]

Say we finish the season with big wins at home against KU, ut, and tamu. Does the committee look at OU going into the B12 tourny as a "must win the tourney team," a "must win 2 games team," or a "thanks for playing, but you lost too many big games early team?"

We stumbled into the dance last year and still got an at large bid.

If we continue this hot streak into the tourney, I like our chances of getting selected and actually making it past the first and possibly the second round

If OU beats UT, A&M, and KU then yes they will be in. However, the chances of that happening are about as good as me deciding that a career at Mcdonald's is the best way to use my Engineering degree. Sorry.

[usmc-sooner]

If OU beats UT, A&M, and KU then yes they will be in. However, the chances of that happening are about as good as me deciding that a career at Mcdonald's is the best way to use my Engineering degree. Sorry.

so your saying our chances are about as good as an Aggie grad working at Mickey D's. Yessssssssssssssssss!!!!

[SleestakSooner]

Actually if the Sooners win two out of three remaining home games and two out of three road games, it will be hard to ignore them for a spot. Especially because at worst we would be tied with OSU in conference records.

I would be highly impressed if they could win all three home games though. Two top ten opponents and a good Texas team coming to Norman.

Oh and Trolling for Jesus, when we want your opinion God will surely let ya know.

kthxbye

[tommieharris91]

If OU beats UT, A&M, and KU then yes they will be in. However, the chances of that happening are about as good as me deciding that a career at Mcdonald's is the best way to use my Engineering degree. Sorry.

I have to agree with you. I think Kansas is, as usual, the class of the conference, and will probably win out. I think we beat texas and atm though.

[poke4christ]

I have to agree with you. I think Kansas is, as usual, the class of the conference, and will probably win out. I think we beat texas and atm though.

A texas win wouldn't shock me in the least, but A&M and KU are pretty certain losses IMHO. Especially after tonight's loss to ISU.

Zach

[TopDawg]

A texas win wouldn't shock me in the least, but A&M and KU are pretty certain losses IMHO. Especially after tonight's loss to ISU.

Zach

So our loss tonight on the road at ISU makes you think we can't beat A&M who lost at home tonight to Texas Tech?

M'kay.

[tommieharris91]

The real question is if atm will come out like gangbustas at OU. If they don't, it could be a long day for them in Norman.

[poke4christ]

So our loss tonight on the road at ISU makes you think we can't beat A&M who lost at home tonight to Texas Tech?

M'kay.

Um... Have ya seen A&M play? They beat KU on the road. They have only lost two games and they've both been to tech. They are they best team in the league right now, even after the loss to Tech. OU was playing above their ability and last night shows that you can't keep that up forever. Do you really think you will go the rest of the schedule with only one loss?

The fact is that many of you are looking very optimistically at a very difficult situation. The remaining schedule isn't easy in the least and OU will probably only be favored in one game (at missouri). I think going 2-3 in whats left is an accomplishment. If Capel can pull off 4-1 then he deserves B12 coach of the year. I just don't see it happening. Here are my win percentages:

Texas A&M 15%
@Missouri 70%
Texas 30%
KU 15%
@KSU 40%

[crawfish]

There's a reason they still play the games.

How come you give us a 40% chance against KSU and a 30% chance vs. UT, when we're at KSU and they beat UT in Austin?

KSU > UT.

[OUSKINS]

I actually agree with Poke here-- although I'd actually raise our % a bit against A+M and drop it a bit against Mizzou. But overall, I think he's right.

If we want to be on the "inside" of the bubble heading into the conference tourney, I think we'll need to be 19-10. That means winning 4 of the last 5 games. I think 18-11 would put us "on the bubble" needing at LEAST two tourney wins to get a look. Put a gun to my head, and I say we'll win 2 of these next 5, finish 17-12, and have to win the tourney to get into the Dance.

Overall all, 17-12 would still be a pretty nice year, all things considered, and we'd probably be one of the "top seeds" in the NIT, with at least one game at the LNC.

As a fan, of course I hold out hope to win 4 of these next 5, but realistically, I think the ISU loss really killed our chances.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Um... Have ya seen A&M play? They beat KU on the road. They have only lost two games and they've both been to tech. They are they best team in the league right now, even after the loss to Tech. OU was playing above their ability and last night shows that you can't keep that up forever. Do you really think you will go the rest of the schedule with only one loss?

The fact is that many of you are looking very optimistically at a very difficult situation. The remaining schedule isn't easy in the least and OU will probably only be favored in one game (at missouri). I think going 2-3 in whats left is an accomplishment. If Capel can pull off 4-1 then he deserves B12 coach of the year. I just don't see it happening. Here are my win percentages:

Texas A&M 15%
@Missouri 70%
Texas 30%
KU 15%
@KSU 40%

I know you are saying basically that OU has overachieved "was playing over their ability" although you realize that isn't actually possible.

I don't think anyone has illusions that beating A&M will be easy but we have seen them play. We took them to the wire, in College Station not to mention we've had a pretty good history against them.

I do concur with you that OU probably will only be favored in the MU game though only probably only slight underdogs in the KSU and Texas games. The % is probably too high for MU, maybe about 60% and definitely too low for A&M and Tex. I'd probably flop the Tex and KSU %'s.

My prediction would be 2-3 in the last 5 and solidly in the NIT. I think 4-1 is what it would take to definitely make the tourney. 3-2 with 2 tourney wins would give us a shot but it would probably require a number of other teams to help.

[LittleWingSooner]

If we win our 3 home games we are probably in the NCAA Tourney. Adding on a road win would lock it up. We may still need to do some work in the Big 12 Tourney. One or two wins in the Big 12 Tourney would be enough to put us in.

[colleyvillesooner]

Say we finish the season with big wins at home against KU, ut, and tamu. Does the committee look at OU going into the B12 tourny as a "must win the tourney team," a "must win 2 games team," or a "thanks for playing, but you lost too many big games early team?"


I think we have to make it to the final game.

[poke4christ]

If we win our 3 home games we are probably in the NCAA Tourney. Adding on a road win would lock it up. We may still need to do some work in the Big 12 Tourney. One or two wins in the Big 12 Tourney would be enough to put us in.

If you win the three home games (A&M, KU, and UT) Angels will probably come down from heaven and shower the team with rose petals.

Sorry for the sarcasm, but you realize these are THE BEST three teams in the league and LNC isn't exactly known for it's amazing home court advantage. Even winning one of these games is an accomplishment to be treasured by this team. To win two would be down right spectacular. The most likely senario is still losing all three (not by a lot, but it's still the most likely IMHO).

However, if by some miracle OU wins all three (even with losing the two road games) I think they are in. Those wins would just be too big.

Also, I don't think you guys are giving UT enough credit. They pounded OU in Austin and the score was only as close as it was because they let up. Durrant is a beast and UT is learning how to take advantage of him to open up other players. 30% might have even been generous.

Finally, I don't want to sound like I'm dogging OU. OU has allready performed much better than I thought they would. Going 8-8 in the conference would be awesome considering the struggles. The future's looking pretty good right now with Capel.

Zach

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

If we win our 3 home games we are probably in the NCAA Tourney. Adding on a road win would lock it up. We may still need to do some work in the Big 12 Tourney. One or two wins in the Big 12 Tourney would be enough to put us in.

I ran that scenario plus my best guess on the other games through a Big 12 tourney bracket simulator


It came up with OU as a #5 seed playing Baylor in the first round followed by KSU. 2 wins before losing would make OU 20-12 with wins over TT,OSU,A&M,KU,Tex at home and a win over KSU on a neutral site. That would sure look tourney worthy. But, if you flip-flop the MU and KU games OU winds up in the same position and the tourney profile doesn't look quite as good.

Of course this all depends on where more or less the bubble is 3 weeks from now. The only way I think we are 90% confident of getting in is to go 4-1 which at this point would be a difficult feat.

[OSUAggie]

... LNC isn't exactly known for it's amazing home court advantage...

Sorry to disagree, other poke, but the LNC has one of the highest point swings in Vegas' eyes. Not that it's an intimidating place, but OU always plays well there and their home record is at least on par with ours if not better. Would not be shocking at all if OU were to beat aTm, TU or Kansas, although aTm is the best shot at a win in my mind.

[crawfish]

ut is not a very good road team. Of A&M, ut and KU, I think we have a better chance against the whorns. We've also played far, far better at home than on the road pretty consistently.

We'll have to see what the ISU loss does to our team. It is a slap in the face or a blow to the confidence?

[TopDawg]

Um... Have ya seen A&M play?

Yes. I saw us with a halftime lead in College Station.

[TopDawg]

By the way, I'm not saying that I expect us to beat A&M. I think we can, but it'll be a tough game. I just think it's ridiculous to say "A&M and KU are pretty certain losses IMHO. Especially after tonight's loss to ISU." as if the game against ISU has any bearing on the game against A&M (or KU).

My point was mostly that the ISU game says as much about our chances of beating A&M as the Tech game says about A&M's chances of beating us.

Despite what it seems like you'd like to think, the ISU game was the conference play exception for OU, not the rule. We played A&M close in College Station. There's no reason, despite our performance at ISU, to think we won't have a great chance in Norman.

[SteelClip49]

OU now has to win out and win 1 game in Oklahoma City to get into the dance. Longar needs to be out there more. This team is legit and has what it takes to get to the elite eight IMO. If Kelvin was coaching this team, then OU would not even be NIT bound. I hope Indiana loses in the 1st round.

[NormanPride]

^^^ I'll have what he's having.

[poke4christ]

OU now has to win out and win 1 game in Oklahoma City to get into the dance. Longar needs to be out there more. This team is legit and has what it takes to get to the elite eight IMO. If Kelvin was coaching this team, then OU would not even be NIT bound. I hope Indiana loses in the 1st round.

Kelvin took a team to the final four, and that team wasn't full of McDonald's all-americans. Kelvin wasn't a bad coach and he's been doing a very good job at IU this year.

That said, I'll also have a little bit of what you're having.

TopDawg: Valid points all around.

[cheezyq]

Here's my take on last night's game. First, as good as Capel has been and as improved as this team is, we're still in our first year with a new coach. There WILL be growing pains.

Second, this was in Ames, one of the tougher places to play in the Big 12. Even when their team stinks, they've always had good fan support. Even KU struggled in Ames this year. Not to mention that they showed a little grit against Texas on Saturday towards the end. Likely they were building on that momentum.

Third, OU was in Waco on Saturday and has to turn around and play on a Tuesday in Ames. They played a tough, emotional game against OSU last Wednesday. Chances are that they were sluggish because they were tired, both mentally and physically.

This loss should have been expected. As much as it hurts possible NCAA hopes, it's likely an important step in an improving team. This team now knows that even with their improved play that they can't relax against anyone. The biggest positive is that despite the bevy of travelling miscues and ill-advised shots (thanks AJ and TG), they still came back from an 18-point deficit to almost pull it off on the road.

While I'm not convinced that they will beat aTm this weekend, they can at least take this lesson into their tough final stretch in the conference.

[LittleWingSooner]

If we win the next 5 games we don't need a win in OKC. The season isn't over yet. I think winning 3 games the rest of the year is enough to put us in the NCAA Tourney. We play the 4 best teams in the Big 12 in our last 5. Win 3 of those and you get a good enough resume to get in.

[OSUAggie]

Losing to ISU and beating KU is much better than winning @ ISU and losing to KU... just sayin' that the games you still need to win are the same as they were before the ISU game... Big wins help NCAA chances more than "bad" losses (not saying the ISU loss is bad, but this year was definitely a winnable year in Ames) hurt them.

[Crimsontothecore]

Hey OsuAggie, Interesting avatar....care to expand?

[OSUAggie]

Hey OsuAggie, Interesting avatar....care to expand?

http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88618

[poke4christ]

http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88618

Dude, you should just ditch the SN and make another account. LOL! Man that makes me feel a lot better to read that though. I though you've been losing your mind. Now if only you could explain your choice in SN. Why the heck would you use the term people here use to try to demean OSU fans as your SN?

Zach

[Boffingham]

We need KSU to keep losing and we need to keep winning.
Also, keep the top teir teams winning (KU, UT, AM) until they play us so that the win looks better. It does no good to beat a team already on a losing streak i.e. TT, OSU.

I still like our chances.

[birddog]

hmmmm. how did osuaggie wind up with zero vcash?

fellas, we gave it a good shot but we're not making the tourney. i think it says alot about our program that we're even talking about it.

the future looks pretty good, to me.

[tommieharris91]

We gotta play well down the stretch. It's gotta start Saturday with a win over atm. Bad mid-major play can help us, too. Braket Buster weekend is this weekend, hope for bad middies i.e. Oral Roberts, pulling some upsets.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

OU now has to win out and win 1 game in Oklahoma City to get into the dance. Longar needs to be out there more. This team is legit and has what it takes to get to the elite eight IMO. If Kelvin was coaching this team, then OU would not even be NIT bound. I hope Indiana loses in the 1st round.

If we win out it would make no difference what we did in the first game of the Big 12 tourney we would be in. We would probably be the 3 seed in that case playing a team like TT or OSU anyway.

Even at 4-1 we might not need a tourney win, it could depend on our seed. I ran OU with a 4-1 (with a loss to KU) through the Big 12 tourney simulator and took a best guess at the other games. In that scenario OU winds up 4th seed at 10-6, just one game behind A&M, a game ahead of OSU and KSU and 2 games up on TT. First round bye followed by a second round game, against OSU. Hardly a bad loss if we lost, unlike if it were a loss to a lower division team on a neutral court. OU would have wins vs A&M,Tex,OSU,TT and @KSU and would be 7-3 in last 10 games.

I wouldn't pronouce us a lock because who knows exactly where the bubble will be in 3 weeks.

I wouldn't totally write us off if we went 3-2 and won 2 games in the Big 12 tourney.

[Crimsontothecore]

Ok, I'm going to sound like a "glass half full" kind of guy here. In a way, I think we are better off going to the NIT than the NCAA's this year. IF OU makes the big dance, They will be a low seed and most likely be one and done. At least in the NIT there's a greater probability that the season is entended a little longer.

[Crimsontothecore]

Now if only you could explain your choice in SN. Why the heck would you use the term people here use to try to demean OSU fans as your SN?

Zach
He has simply come to terms with the reality of what he is. YOU, on the other hand, Are still swimming in a sea of denial.

[OSUAggie]

I guess I don't see Aggie as a demeaning term, even if it is used as such. It doesn't bother me. I'm in no way an ag person, nor do I really even like ag people, but it's kind of what the school's academic and athletic structure have been based on for a bit more than a century. The "aggie" mindset is what makes us good at some things and completely, well, aggie, at other things.

[Boomer.....]

hmmmm. how did osuaggie wind up with zero vcash?
When you bet, the money comes out of your account until the bet is over. He bet all of it on OSU making the tourny.


I agree with Aggie, there is no reason to feel hurt by the term Aggie. That's who you are, it's your history. Your school is in freaking Stillwater. There is nothing worse than getting into an argument with some OSU fan that you call an "aggie".