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View Full Version : NIT/NCAA odds.



SoonerStormchaser
2/8/2007, 10:20 AM
From where I sit down in San Antonio.

Barring a complete meltdown, we're definitely NIT bound right now. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

The Tournament? That's still a longshot. In order for that to happen, here are the following scenarios I've come up with:

a. We beat :texan: , KU and aTm at home...Baylor, CU, HuggieBear and Mizzou on the road. Basically, WIN OUT!

b. We lose one or two more games. If that happens, we have to make the semi's or finals in the Big XII tournament to have a prayer.

c. All the teams above us have meltdowns. We lose one or two more games. We go two rounds in the Big XII tourney. We barely sneak in as a bubble team.


Thoughts?

MojoRisen
2/8/2007, 10:25 AM
I think if we get too 21 wins no matter how- we should be in - including the Big 12 tourney- so with that said two more loses including the big 12 tourney is all we got left too loose if we are going too the dance!

It is possible- but if that happens we will be ranked as well.

OUSKINS
2/8/2007, 10:30 AM
Not so sure about that. I think it depends on WHO we beat. We are 14-8 with 7 regular season games left.

Let's say we end the reg. season at 18-11 (4-3 the rest of the way). But let's say 2 of those wins are against A+M and KU. Well, then if we win 1 or 2 games in the tourney, that might be enough to get it done.

I think a 20 win season with at least 3 high-quality wins will probably get us in.

King Crimson
2/8/2007, 11:37 AM
record against top 50 rpi teams, rpi below 55 or so, final conference standings, and not getting stiffed by a RMK or Huggy media love affair to be the 6th team from the Big XII are going to be more of a factor than # of wins. 20 wins is purely cosmetic. lots of teams have 20 wins and don't make it.

i'd say we've got a shot.....but we've got to keep winning, leave as little to "chance" as possible, and most likely EARN that 7th conference spot which is going to be an uphill task with the national opinion leaders in the media.

Rock Hard Corn Frog
2/8/2007, 11:53 AM
Not so sure about that. I think it depends on WHO we beat. We are 14-8 with 7 regular season games left.

Let's say we end the reg. season at 18-11 (4-3 the rest of the way). But let's say 2 of those wins are against A+M and KU. Well, then if we win 1 or 2 games in the tourney, that might be enough to get it done.

I think a 20 win season with at least 3 high-quality wins will probably get us in.

I don't know how much it will work against us but we are playing 1-2 less games than a lot of teams. We "could" have 16 wins right now with a couple other Longwood type teams on the schedule. I don't know how much the tournament selection committee looks at overall win total but certainly 16-8 looks more attractive.

As far as our tourney profile right now our worst loss if you go by RPI is @Tex. Purdue had been our worst loss but were up to 38 in the RPI and they clobbered Mich St last night so they look pretty good right now. We basically have no bad losses and just need another good win or two.

I think 10-6 is a lock (19-10 pre Big 12 Tourney) Only once has a 10-6 Big 12 team not made it and I think 10-6 playing in the Big 12 South this year should be similar to having the same record in the ACC or SEC.

9-7 I think we are still on the bubble. Might need 2 games in the Big 12 tourney but again winning 4 of our last 7 games would mean at worst one of our wins would be KSU on the road while winning all our road games or beating Tex, A&M of KU at home. We might be one of those last teams to miss the tourney but I wouldn't totally write off our chances.

8-8 and 7-9 Don't see at large NCAA tourney bid either way. Both I think would get us in the NIT.

Just my 2 cents but I'd be mostly interested in opinions if hyopthetically we are 9-7 with say wins over Baylor, ISU,MU on the road and A&M at home with a 1st round NCAA tourney win. That's 19-12 with an RPI probably in the 40's, no bad losses and 3 wins against teams in the RPI top 50 (presuming TT or OSU doesn't crater).

OUSKINS
2/8/2007, 11:54 AM
I think the real key is winning those road games. Those games worry me right now. I actually think we'll win at least one more of the tough home games. But I could still see the Baylor's and ISU's of the world handing us losses on the road-- and if that happens, our at-large chances decrease dramatically unless we win all of those home games.

NormanPride
2/8/2007, 12:35 PM
I really think we have a chance to win all the games remaining except perhaps the Kansas game. We played A&M really tough in their house and that makes me feel good, but we'll need to play lights out and get some breaks to beat them. Hopefully having L2 against texas will help us over them. I didn't get a chance to watch the first one, so I have no idea how we did against them matchup-wise...

Perhaps surprisingly, I think our biggest remaining game is... KSU on the road. Nobody will slam us if we don't beat KU and A&M at home - they're really freaking good. But KSU is a team we have to go on the road and beat to show we're good enough to play in the tourney.

SleestakSooner
2/8/2007, 03:41 PM
I feel like Baylor and Iowa State are road games the Sooners should win, and that they can beat at least one of the three teams coming to LNC. I feel KU is peaking at the right time and will be the biggest challenge. But aTm and saxeT both can be taken down and are due for a Sooner beat down.

The road games against MU and KSU are the ones I am most concerned with. I would be extremely happy if we could win 3/4 road games and 2/3 at home. That would get us to 19 wins going into the Big XII Tournament.

I still think this team could win the conference tournament and take themselves right off any bubble. Decide it on the court and take the decision out of the pollsters hands.

SoonerSinger3
2/8/2007, 04:05 PM
I believe that we must got at least 10-6, and win a game or two in the big 12 tourney to even be looked at for the ncaa tourney. We have to beat at least Kansas or A&M which is obvious. However, if Carter and Longar keep playing consistently like they have been for the past several games, then I like our chances of getting to 10-6. Also, Austin Johnson has improved drastically since last year. He still has the UGLIEST shot I think I have ever seen, but he runs the offense pretty well and his assist/turnover ratio ain't too shabby. JEFF CAPEL IS A PIMP

jk the sooner fan
2/8/2007, 05:35 PM
i think we end up 19-10 and head to the NIT, and considering the recruits we lost and the scrambling Capel had to do to get there, we'd be damn happy and proud of the teams effort for that result

soonervegas
2/9/2007, 01:16 PM
I believe that we must got at least 10-6, and win a game or two in the big 12 tourney to even be looked at for the ncaa tourney. We have to beat at least Kansas or A&M which is obvious. However, if Carter and Longar keep playing consistently like they have been for the past several games, then I like our chances of getting to 10-6. Also, Austin Johnson has improved drastically since last year. He still has the UGLIEST shot I think I have ever seen, but he runs the offense pretty well and his assist/turnover ratio ain't too shabby. JEFF CAPEL IS A PIMP

10-6 and a game in the Big 12 tourney and it isn't even a question. Even at 10-6 and a 1st round exit I still think we are in.

I think we end up 9-7 and have to beat a #3 seed KSU on Friday to get to the Big Dance. Good thing is if we get to that point Dickie V will be pimping us for obvious reasons.