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View Full Version : Season Could Still Swim, Sink, or Float



OUSKINS
1/22/2007, 08:43 AM
11-6, 3-2 in the Big 12. Not a bad start. If you've read my post-game assesments, then you know that I am very impressed with Capel thus far. The team plays with grit, energy, and intelligence. Capel has them playing their guts out on defense and the offensive system seems to be the best thing for this current roster. Our losses have exposed some glaring weaknesses in terms of talent, but there's nothing Coach can do about that right now. He's working with what he's got, and the team is responding.

Here we sit, midway through the season and things could really tilt in one direction or the other at this point.

It's pretty clear we're not going to be at the very bottom of the league. We've dominated equal to lesser opponent's all year long, and we've been excellent at home. Conversley, the "big boys" have pounded us pretty good.

We have 5 games left against Longwood, K-State, ISU, Mizzou, and Baylor. I think 3-2 is a realistic goal. Assuming one of the three is against Longwood, that would put us at 14-8 overall and 5-4 in conference.

We have 7 games left against Tech, OSU, A+M, UT, and Kansas combined. How we fare in those games will determine how this season plays out.

The question now is can we win ANY of those games? If so, how many?

I do think Capel needs to win at least one in order for this to be considered even a "decent" season. I don't see how you can lose ALL of the tough games you play and be too content with how things went down.

Obviously, he wins 4 or more, I'd say we definitely "swam" this season.

If we win 1 or 0, I'd say we "sank."

If we win 2-3, I'd say we "floated." All things considere, "floating" wouldn't be bad at all for this season.

Point being, take a look at the extremes of the outcomes of those 7 games. If you lose most of them, we're probably out of the post-season picture altogether. If we win most of them, we'd pretty much be a lock for the Big Dance. If it's somewhere in the middle, then we'll probably be looking at a sure NIT bid, with an outside shot at the Dance depending on the Big 12 Tourney.

My guess?

Well, I don't think we can beat any of those teams on the road. So, we start off 0-2 with losses in the two Aggie lands. But I'll say we find a way to win 2 of those 5 home games, making it 2-5 for the stretch. I just don't think we'll have the firepower to win more than that.

That would leave us at 16-13 heading into the tourney. I'd say one win at the Ford Center and we're definitely in the NIT.

Now, IF we can somehow win one of these next two on the road, then that will change things quite a bit :)

soonervegas
1/22/2007, 12:21 PM
This teams "season" starts February 3rd.

Texas Tech
OSU
at Baylor
at Iowa State
A&M
at Missouri
Texas
Kansas
at KSU

I am hoping for a 4-5 record during this timeframe. Which would get them to that 16-13 mark. I see opportunities to win many of these outside or KU and A&M, but I see a chance to lose a whole alot as well. We need to try and hold serve at home as much as possible.

A 16-13 (7-9) mark would almost assure us a 17th win due to playing an 10th or 11th seed in round one of the Big 12 Tourney.

OUmillenium
1/22/2007, 12:27 PM
This teams "season" starts February 3rd.

Texas Tech
OSU
at Baylor
at Iowa State
A&M
at Missouri
Texas
Kansas
at KSU

I am hoping for a 4-5 record during this timeframe. Which would get them to that 16-13 mark. I see opportunities to win many of these outside or KU and A&M, but I see a chance to lose a whole alot as well. We need to try and hold serve at home as much as possible.

A 16-13 (7-9) mark would almost assure us a 17th win due to playing an 10th or 11th seed in round one of the Big 12 Tourney.

and I think that assures us an NIT bid. Only way we make the dance is winning the conference tourney IMO.

OUSKINS
1/22/2007, 12:28 PM
I know this is a bit off topic, but I'm a big Cleveland Cavs fan and for Christmas this year my wife got together with my parents and my in-laws to get me a trip to see them play a couple of home games.

So check out this week coming up for me:

Sat, 3rd: I'll be at the LNC for our game against Tech
Sun, 4th: Cavs play the Pistons on ABC, followed by the Super Bowl!
Wed, 7th: I'll be at the LNC for our game against OSU
Fri, 9th: I'll be LIVE in Cleveland for the Cavs-Heat game
Sun, 11th: I'll be LIVE in Cleveland frot the Cavs-Lakers game

That, my friends, is sports heaven! I can't wait.

BTW, I'll be in Cleveland the Saturday we play at Baylor-- any tips on the best way to follow the game? Good net feeds, etc..??

OUSKINS
1/22/2007, 12:31 PM
I totally agree that 16-13, plus one tourney win guarantees us a NIT bid-- we'd enter at 17-14 and probably get at least one home game. So, IMO, that should be our minimum goal-- and I do believe it's realistic and attainable.

How do we make the Dance w/o winning the tourney?

Well, it would be very tough. I think we'd need at least 20 wins-- meaning we'd have to win the majority of those games against the big boys.

Another way we could make it interesting is by winning ALL of the remaining "iffy" games. Myself and everyone here has us splitting KSU, Mizzou, Baylor, and ISU. 2-2 is the most realistic goal there, but IF we were to beat 3 or 4 of those teams, it could change things a bit as well.

Rock Hard Corn Frog
1/22/2007, 12:49 PM
I still think even getting to 7-9 will be quite an accomplishment for this team, 6-10 is probably more likley. On the other hand I'm certainly encouraged by how they have played as late.