OUSKINS
1/22/2007, 08:43 AM
11-6, 3-2 in the Big 12. Not a bad start. If you've read my post-game assesments, then you know that I am very impressed with Capel thus far. The team plays with grit, energy, and intelligence. Capel has them playing their guts out on defense and the offensive system seems to be the best thing for this current roster. Our losses have exposed some glaring weaknesses in terms of talent, but there's nothing Coach can do about that right now. He's working with what he's got, and the team is responding.
Here we sit, midway through the season and things could really tilt in one direction or the other at this point.
It's pretty clear we're not going to be at the very bottom of the league. We've dominated equal to lesser opponent's all year long, and we've been excellent at home. Conversley, the "big boys" have pounded us pretty good.
We have 5 games left against Longwood, K-State, ISU, Mizzou, and Baylor. I think 3-2 is a realistic goal. Assuming one of the three is against Longwood, that would put us at 14-8 overall and 5-4 in conference.
We have 7 games left against Tech, OSU, A+M, UT, and Kansas combined. How we fare in those games will determine how this season plays out.
The question now is can we win ANY of those games? If so, how many?
I do think Capel needs to win at least one in order for this to be considered even a "decent" season. I don't see how you can lose ALL of the tough games you play and be too content with how things went down.
Obviously, he wins 4 or more, I'd say we definitely "swam" this season.
If we win 1 or 0, I'd say we "sank."
If we win 2-3, I'd say we "floated." All things considere, "floating" wouldn't be bad at all for this season.
Point being, take a look at the extremes of the outcomes of those 7 games. If you lose most of them, we're probably out of the post-season picture altogether. If we win most of them, we'd pretty much be a lock for the Big Dance. If it's somewhere in the middle, then we'll probably be looking at a sure NIT bid, with an outside shot at the Dance depending on the Big 12 Tourney.
My guess?
Well, I don't think we can beat any of those teams on the road. So, we start off 0-2 with losses in the two Aggie lands. But I'll say we find a way to win 2 of those 5 home games, making it 2-5 for the stretch. I just don't think we'll have the firepower to win more than that.
That would leave us at 16-13 heading into the tourney. I'd say one win at the Ford Center and we're definitely in the NIT.
Now, IF we can somehow win one of these next two on the road, then that will change things quite a bit :)
Here we sit, midway through the season and things could really tilt in one direction or the other at this point.
It's pretty clear we're not going to be at the very bottom of the league. We've dominated equal to lesser opponent's all year long, and we've been excellent at home. Conversley, the "big boys" have pounded us pretty good.
We have 5 games left against Longwood, K-State, ISU, Mizzou, and Baylor. I think 3-2 is a realistic goal. Assuming one of the three is against Longwood, that would put us at 14-8 overall and 5-4 in conference.
We have 7 games left against Tech, OSU, A+M, UT, and Kansas combined. How we fare in those games will determine how this season plays out.
The question now is can we win ANY of those games? If so, how many?
I do think Capel needs to win at least one in order for this to be considered even a "decent" season. I don't see how you can lose ALL of the tough games you play and be too content with how things went down.
Obviously, he wins 4 or more, I'd say we definitely "swam" this season.
If we win 1 or 0, I'd say we "sank."
If we win 2-3, I'd say we "floated." All things considere, "floating" wouldn't be bad at all for this season.
Point being, take a look at the extremes of the outcomes of those 7 games. If you lose most of them, we're probably out of the post-season picture altogether. If we win most of them, we'd pretty much be a lock for the Big Dance. If it's somewhere in the middle, then we'll probably be looking at a sure NIT bid, with an outside shot at the Dance depending on the Big 12 Tourney.
My guess?
Well, I don't think we can beat any of those teams on the road. So, we start off 0-2 with losses in the two Aggie lands. But I'll say we find a way to win 2 of those 5 home games, making it 2-5 for the stretch. I just don't think we'll have the firepower to win more than that.
That would leave us at 16-13 heading into the tourney. I'd say one win at the Ford Center and we're definitely in the NIT.
Now, IF we can somehow win one of these next two on the road, then that will change things quite a bit :)