Probably the longest post in history, but if you are bored... [Archive]

View Full Version : Probably the longest post in history, but if you are bored...

TMcGee86

1/14/2007, 10:44 PM

I figured I would give you something to read if you are iced in.

I spent an unhealthy amount of time on the computer because of the weather and I thought this was pretty interesting when it was all said and done.

A while back, a poster on another board I frequent posted an article about how some schools have the least home grown talent of major schools. The main schools on the list were Notre Dame, Michigan, and Oklahoma. I said the theory was flawed because Oklahoma has such a small population that it is forced to go outside its borders for help. This got me thinking of a new way to look at this theory.

I therefore analyzed every state in the union based on their Division I college football programs and devised a formula which ranks every state based on it's college football efficiency. I call it the McGee Efficiency Ratings.

The basic premise is to find out which State, in light of its population, gets the most production out of its football teams. Sort of a "bang for the buck" rating, if you will.

And because many may question the results, I will first explain my formula. I think you will find it hard to argue that the formula is unfair.

I first wanted a starting point to decide what my equilibrium should be, so I took the total population of the US and divided it by the number of D1 schools.

The total population of the US is roughly 290 million, and there are 119 D1 schools in the US. This is approx 2.5 million per school.

However, in the larger states like California, the population can be concentrated in certain cites, so I have rounded that number down to 2 million per school and used that figure as a basis for the equilibrium.

Many states fall nicely into this ratio and I have weighted the score to give a state 0 points if it is in balance, i.e. 2 million people per school.

To accomplish this balance, I have scaled the points for number of schools in state from +5 to -5.

The most D1 schools in any one state is 10. (Texas)

The least D1 schools in any one state is obviously 0. (numerous states)

So, if a state has 10 D1 schools, it gets +5 points.

And, if a state has 0 D1 schools, it gets -5 points.

And since -5 is the lowest you can get on the number of school axis, I have given states with under a 2million population +5 points to get us that equilibrium of 0.

Once the population axis is laid out it looks like this:

+5 points for a population of Zero to 2 million
+4 points for a population of 2 million
+3.5 points for a population of 3 million
+3 points for a population of 4 million
+2.5 points for a population of 5 million
+2 points for a population of 6 million
+1.5 points for a population of 7 million
+1 points for a population of 8 million
+0 points for a population of 10 million
-0.5 points for a population of 11 million
-1 points for a population of 12 million
-3.5 points for a population of 17 million
-4.5 points for a population of 19 million
-6 points for a population of 22 million
-12.5 points for a population of 35 million

And the number of schools* axis looks like this:

+5 points for 10 Schools
+4 points for 09 Schools
+3 points for 08 Schools
+2 points for 07 Schools
+1 points for 06 Schools
+0 points for 05 Schools
-1 points for 04 Schools
-2 points for 03 Schools
-3 points for 02 Schools
-4 points for 01 Schools
-5 points for No Schools

*The only tweak to this formula is that for all states with a population of over two million, I count non-bcs schools as 1/2 a school. Let's be honest here, if you live in Alabama and you are a big time recruit, there are two schools you are choosing from if you stay in your home state, Bama and Auburn. Troy and UAB shouldn't count as equals because they aren't.

So that gives us the basis for the formula. I then added the following bonus points to complete the ratings:

+1 point per championship and 2 points per championship if you have less than one million per school. However, I only went back to 1938 and I only counted AP or BCS national championships.

However, the bigger you get, the more it hurts to not have a championship. Thus:

-1 points if No Championships with over 2 million per school
-2 points if No Championships with over 3 million per school
-3 points if No Championships with over 4 million per school
-4 points if No Championships with over 5 million per school
etc.

+1 point if all the state's schools are in BCS auto-bid conferences.

+1 point to schools that are considered a "perennial powerhouse". I have tried to be as generous as possible with my powerhouse points, but if you think that I unfairly discredited a school, please let me know and I will consider adding it to my list. However, please note that a school cannot be considered a Perennial Powerhouse without multiple championships.

+1 point if you have less than one million people per D1 school.

-1 if you have one million people but no D1 school.

+2 if you have a D1 school in a state with less than 1million people. (The Wyoming Rule.)

And that my friends is the McGee D1 College Football Efficiency Rating Formula. (MCFER for short).

Now, I know this only takes into D1 schools, and this is on purpose, I also didn't take into account any military academy. I dont believe that many recruits go to an Academy solely because of their football program. Plus those schools naturally are going to draw from all over the nation, and have no real tie with their host state so I decided to just ignore them.

And on that note, I know this will **** some people off but I have what is called "The Notre Dame Rule". I considered not including Notre Dame for the same reason as the Military Academies. Because ND is a private school and such a national draw, it could be placed anywhere and pretty much achieve the same results. Very few of ND's players actually come from Indiana (they have a total of four this year). Yet, if you include Notre Dame and give the same rules as everyone else, Indiana becomes a top three state. Indiana should not benefit from this phenomenon, IMHO. However, I felt it was unfair to completely ignore them. Therefore I have given Indiana normal points except for championships points. I have given then only one point for their championships. I felt this put them about where they deserve to be.

So, with no further ado, here are the results:

I'll list these from worst to first to build the suspense. LOL.

In dead last place we have:

#50 NEW JERSEY!!!!

Congratulations New Jersey, despite your ridiculous population of over EIGHT MILLION, you can only manage to scrape together one school. And to make things worse, that school is Rutgers.

And despite the fact that Rutgers has over 8 million people to draw from, its football team sucks donkey balls, minus the one decent year this year.

So you get the following results:

+1 point for Eight Million peeps
-4 points for only having One School
-7 points for No Champ with over 8 million per school.
+1 point for all your schools being in BCS confernces.

This gives us a total of -9. Congrats New Jersey, you SUCK! lol!

Next up, second to last we have:

#49 New York!

Congrats NY, despite being the nation's third largest state, you only have two football teams, Syracuse and Buffalo. And Buffalo doesnt even play in a BCS conference.

That's pathetic.

When it's all said and done you get the following:

-4.5 points for Nineteen Million peeps
-3.5 points for having 1.5 Schools
+1 point for a National Championship (Syracuse, 1959)

NEW YORK TOTAL POINTS..... -7

Third from the bottom, we have

#48, CALIFORNIA.

Yes, many of the SUC fans may get ****ed about this, but the fact is California has THIRTY FIVE MILLION PEOPLE!

And with all those peeps the only real schools you guys have are USC and UCLA.

It's no wonder USC has so many championships.

Califorina has the following schools:
USC Trojans*
UCLA Bruins*
Stanford Cardnial*
Cal Golden Bears *
San Diego St. Aztecs
Fresno State Bulldogs
San Jose State Spartans

* BCS school

And here's the point break down:
-12.5 35 Mill
+1 6 Schools
+4 Championships (USC, 1962, 67, 72, 2004)
+1 Powerhouse (USC)

CALIFORNIA TOTAL POINTS.....-6.5

#47 ILLINOIS - I actually feel slightly sorry for Illinois...slightly. Because South Bend is practically a suburb of Chicago, Ill is no doubt hurt considerably by it's proximity to ND. However, who's fault is it that Ill doesnt have a viable option? And who's fault is it that with 12 million freaking people, the only teams you have a two cellar dwellers and a non BCS school? That's just brutal. So while I understand their prediciment, I cant get past the fact that they just dont have any real teams in Ill. Sorry. Here's the breakdown:

Population:

12,713,634

Schools:

Ill. Fighting Illini*
Northwestern Cats*
Northern Ill Huskies

Point break down:

-1 Twelve Mill
-2.5 2.5 Schools
-3 No champ +4mill

ILLINOIS TOTAL POINTS.....-6.5

#46 MASSACHUSETTS - It's a good thing every chowda head in Boston has their head firmly planted on the Redsox backside, because if they pulled their head out, they would get pretty dam bored if forced to watch their college football production. Six million peeps, one measely school. Yet another reason I hate Mass.

Population:

6,416,505

Schools:

Boston College Eagles*

Point break down:

+2 Six Million
-4 One School
+1 BCS
-5 No Champ +6Mill

MASSACHUSETTS TOTAL POINTS.....-6

#45 WISCONSIN - Wisconsin and Missouri should be ashamed of themselves. Over 5 million peeps a piece and all they can field is a single D1 school. At least mix in some non BCS schools, my gosh. And not a single championship among them. Just awful. If I could give out negative bonus points I would dish it out to these two pansy states:

Population:

5,509,026

Schools:

Wisconsin Badgers*

Point break down:

+2.5 Five Mill
-4 One School
+1 BCS
-4 No Champ +5mill

WISCONSIN TOTAL POINTS.....-4.5

#44 MISSOURI "It'll be a cold day in Hell before I recognize Missouri as a state" -- Abe Simpson

Population:

5,754,618

Schools:

Missou Tigers*

Point break down:

+2.5 Five Mill
-4 One School
+1 BCS
-4 No Champ +5mill

MISSOURI TOTAL POINTS.....-4.5

#43 VIRGINA - Come on Virginia, seven mill and only two schools? I used to think Virginia was pretty decent when it came to college football till I broke down this index. No championship? Nearly four million per school? That's poor.

Population:

7,459,827

Schools:

Virginia Cavs*
Va Tech Hokies*

Point break down:

+1.5 Seven Mill
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS
-2 No champ +3mill

VIRGINA TOTAL POINTS.....-2.5

#42 CONNECTICUT

Population:

3,503,604

Schools:

Uconn Huskies*

Point break down:

+3.5 Three Mill
-4 One School
+1 BCS
-2 No champ 3mill

CONNECTICUT TOTAL POINTS.....-1.5

#41 MAINE

Population:

1,317,253

Schools:

None

Point break down:

+5 One Mill
-5 Zero Schools
-1 if 1mill & no school

MAINE TOTAL POINTS.....-1

#40 NEW HAMPSHIRE

Population:

1,299,500

Schools:

None

Point break down:

+5 One Mill
-5 Zero Schools
-1 if 1mill & no school

NEW HAMPSHIRE TOTAL POINTS.....-1

#39 RHODE ISLAND

Population:

1,080,632

Schools:

None

Point break down:

+5 One Mill
-5 Zero Schools
-1 if 1mill & no school

RHODE ISLAND TOTAL POINTS.....-1

#38 PENNSYLVANIA - Despite claims to the contrary, Penn ranks way down in effiency. Despite the fact that you have a powerhouse in Penn State, that is pretty much it. Sure you have Pitt, but they havent done squat since the 70's and after that all you got is Temple. That's 3 schools and a population of 12 freaking million. That's ugly. Here's the breakdown:

Population:

12,406,292

Schools:

Penn State Nittny Lions
Pitt Panthers
Temple Owls

Point break down:

-1 Twelve Mill
-2.5 2.5 Schools
+3 championships
+1 Powerhouse

PENNSYLVANIA TOTAL POINTS.....-0.5

#37 Arizona

Oooo sorry bout that AZ, looks like your state sucks as bad as Penn. The reason? Well you have over 5 million peeps and just two schools. Worse yet, they both suck. Zero championships total. Uggh. Not good. Here's the break down:

Population:

5,743,834

Schools:

Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sundevils

Point break down:

+2.5 Five Mill
-3 Two School
+1 BCS
-1 No Champ +2mill

ARIZONA TOTAL POINTS.....-0.5

Okay, that is the last of the negative pointers. The rest of the group has either zero points, or positive points.

#36 DELAWARE - Delaware has the problem that most of these zeros have, a pop over a million but no D1 school. No real shocker here, but still, you could scrape together a team if you wanted to bad enough. Therefore every state without a team automatically gets ranked behind any state with a team having the same efficency rating.

Population - 830,364

Schools - None

Point Break Down:

+5 under mill
-5 no schools

DELAWARE TOTAL POINTS.....+0

#35 SOUTH DAKOTA

Population - 770,883

Schools - None

Point Break Down:

+5 under mill
-5 no schools

SOUTH DAKOTA TOTAL POINTS.....+0

#34 NORTH DAKOTA

Population - 634,366

Schools - None

Point Break Down:

+5 under mill
-5 no schools

NORTH DAKOTA TOTAL POINTS.....+0

#33 VERMONT

Population - 621,394

Schools - None

Point Break Down:

+5 under mill
-5 no schools

VERMONT TOTAL POINTS.....+0

#32 NEVADA

Population - 2,334,771

Schools -
Nevada Wolf Pack
UNLV Runnin Rebs

Point Break Down:

+4 Two mill
-4 One School ( .5's)

NEVADA TOTAL POINTS.....+0

#31 ALASKA - I felt Alaska deserved a little credit considering their locale and all so I put them near the top of the zeros.

Population - 655,435

Schools - None

Point Break Down:

+5 under mill
-5 no schools

ALASKA TOTAL POINTS.....+0

#30 MONTANA - Now granted, Montana has a population of dang near a million, and yet no football team, so you might be asking why I have them above the others, well, their D1AA is a freaking powerhouse, so at least they play football the right way, even if they dont play at the highest level.

Population - 926,865

schools - None

Point Break Down:

+5 under mill
-5 no schools

MONTANA TOTAL POINTS.....+0

#29 KENTUCKY - Sorry SEC lovers, but Kentucky does very little considering their population. And if you think this one made you mad, wait till you see whose next on the list. hehe

Population - 4,145,922

Schools -

Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardnials

Point Break Down:

+3 Four Mill
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS
-1 No Champ +2mill

KENTUCKY TOTAL POINTS.....+0

#28 GEORGIA that's right UGA fans, your state sucks fat hawg when it comes to production. All those people and the only schools you have are UGA and GTech. Pathetic. Here's the breakdown:

Population - 8,829,383

Schools -

UGA Bulldogs
G Tech YellowJackets

Point Break Down:

+1 Eight Mill
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS
+1 Championship

GEORGIA TOTAL POINTS....+0

Next up the half-pointers. These teams get slightly higher production than normal out of their schools.

#27 MARYLAND - Despite a heafty population, Maryland only fields one D1 football school. And with Five Million plus peeps, they only have one championship and have not been much of a factor since 1953. Not good, IMHO. Here's the breakdown:

Population - 5,558,058

Schools - Maryland Terps

Point Break Down:

+2.5 Five Million
-4 One School
+1 BCS
+1 Championship

MARYLAND TOTAL POINTS.....+0.5

#26 ARKANSAS - Not a bad state really, considering their population, however only one big time school so they arent going to score really high, and without any championships, Arkansas, while respectable, is left out of the top 25. Here's the break down:

Population - 2,752,629

Schools -

Akansas Razorbacks
Akansas State Indians

Point Break Down:

+4 Two Million
-3.5 1.5 Schools

ARKANSAS TOTAL POINTS....+0.5

And now...drumroll please....THE TOP TWENTY FIVE!!!!!!!!!!!

TMcGee86

1/14/2007, 10:47 PM

#25 HAWAII - Just cracking the top twenty five we have the aloha state. Hawaii deserves to be a top 25 because despite their miniscule population, and their ridiculous location, they field a D1 team. Now granted, this is not a BCS team, however, remember, with under two million peeps, all teams count. I just respect Hawaii for showing up, unlike Alaska. Here's the breakdown:

Population: 1,262,840

Schools - Hawaii (Rainbow) Warriors

Point Break Down:

+5 One Million
-4 One School

HAWAII TOTAL POINTS.....+1

#24 NEW MEXICO - I really am surprised NM ranks this high, I even rounded up on their population becuase originally they were ranking silly high. They only have 2 mill and they do field two teams, but they do suck. However, at least they come to play, which is more than I can say for a lot of states.

Population - 1,903,289

Schools -
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico State Aggies

Point Break Down:

+4 Two Million
-3 Two Schools

NEW MEXICO TOTAL POINTS.....+1

#23 WASHINGTON - Originally I had Washington at minus 2. This struck me as pretty low for them so I re-ran the numbers. I found a discrepency. I have awarded Washington a Championship for their 1991 season. I figure if you go undefeated and get the ESPN/USAToday nod, I have to give you a little credit.

Population:

6,203,788

Schools:

Washington Huskies*
Wash State Cougs*

Point break down:

+2 Six Million
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS
-2 No Champ +3Mill

WASHINGTON TOTAL POINTS.....+1

#22 COLORADO -

Population - 4,601,403

Schools:

Colorado Buffs
Colorado State Rams

Point Break Down:

+3 Four Million Peeps
-3 Two Schools
+1 Championships (Colordado, 1990)

COLORADO TOTAL POINTS.....+1.

#21 OREGON - Not bad all things considered. With far less people than their neighbor to the north, Oregon has gotten pretty much the same results.

Population - 3,594,586

Schools -

Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers

Point Break Down:

+3.5 Three Million
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS

OREGON TOTAL POINTS.....+1.5

Well, interestingly NC and SC are tied in this index, and both just crack the top 20. However they go about it in two totally different fashions. NC loads up with Schools but has no real success, SC has only 2 schools but slightly more success. Here's the breakdown:

#20 NORTH CAROLINA

Population - 8,541,221

Schools -

NC State Wolfpack
NC Tarheels
Duke Blue Devils
Wake Forest Deamon Deacons
East Carolina Butt Pirates

Point Break Down:

+1 Eight Million
+0 Five Schools
+1 BCS

NORTH CAROLINA TOTAL POINTS.....+2

#19 SOUTH CAROLINA

Population - 4,198,068

Schools -

USC Gamecocks
Clemson Tigers

Point Break Down:

+3 Four Million
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS
+1 Championship (Clemson, 1981)

SOUTH CAROLINA TOTAL POINTS.....+2

#18 IOWA - Pretty much where I figured they would be. Iowa and Kansas are nearly identical states. Both have 2 mill peeps, and both have two BCS schools. Both field semi legitmate programs that have seen recent success. Both these are fine states. for me to poop on.

Population - 2,954,451

Schools:

Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa State Cyclones

Point Break Down:

+4 Two Million
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS

IOWA TOTAL POINTS.....+2

#17 KANSAS - I gotta say I am impressed with Kansas' effiency. Barely anyone lives there yet they field two BCS schools. And with the recent success of Kstate, it makes it that much more impressive. Kansas is truly a state that get a lot out of a little.

Population - 2,735,502

Schools:

Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats

Point Break Down:

+4 Two Million
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS

KANSAS TOTAL POINTS.....+2

#16 MICHIGAN - Yes, I'm sure this may come as a shock to some, but Michigan can't even crack the top fifteen when it comes to effiency. They have TONS of people, and really only two schools. I will not listen to arguments that western michigan, or eastern michigan, are legit teams, because we all know they aren't. So with 10 mill in peeps, Michigan gives us UM and MSU. Whoopdifreakingdo. Here's the breakdown:

Population - 10,112,620

Schools:

Michigan Wolverines*
MSU Spartans*
Western Michigan Broncos
Central Michigan Chipawas
Eastern MIchigan Eagles

Point Break Down:

+0 Ten Million
-1.5 3.5 Schools
+1 Powerhouse
+3 Championships (Michigan, 1948, 97; MSU, 1952)

MICHIGAN TOTAL POINTS.....+2.5

#15 UTAH - Utah is another one I am impressed with. Despite the fact that most of their points come from the fact that BYU is there, and there is a tendency to think that the BYU factor should mirror the Notre Dame factor, but because Utah is home to a ton of Mormans, and because it is the only state with under a million people per school that has won a championship, I wont dock them for their success. Heres the break down:

Population - 2,389,039

Schools:

BYU Cougars
Utah Utes
Utah State Aggies

Point Break Down:

+4 Two Million People
-3.5 1.5 Schools
+2 Championship (BYU, 1984)

UTAH TOTAL POINTS.....+2.5

#14 MINNESOTA - Minnesota is lucky it won championships in the 40's, because otherwise they would be hurting and deservedly so. Five million people and only one school. That's weak. But, with all those peeps and just one school they are supposed to have won championships and they have, so I got to give them credit. Although, considering they havent done anything in forever, I feel I should almost dock them points, but I wont. Here's the breakdown:

Population - 5,100,958

School - Minn Golden Gophers

Point Break Down:

+2.5 Five Million
-4 One School
+1 BCS
+3 Championships (Minn, 1940, 41, 60)

MINNESOTA TOTAL POINTS.....+2.5

#13 INDIANA - Here is the Notre Dame state. Sure I realize Indiana probably doesnt deserve to be this high, but what can I do? Notre Dame is there, and despite the fact that I hate their guts and livers, they have won championships. And for anyone who *****es that I should give them full credit, screw you, you know that ND is an inigma, your lucky I didn't throw them out entirely. Here's the break down:

Population - 6,237,569

Schools:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Purdue Boilermakers
Indiana Hoosiers
Ball State Cardnials

Point Break Down:

+2 Six Million
-1.5 3.5 Schools
+1 Powerhouse (ND)
+1 Championships* (ND)

(*Notre Dame Rule limited)

INDIANA TOTAL POINTS.....2.5

#12 IDAHO - Yes that's right, the land of the smurf turf rolls in at #13. The reason is they have freaking NOBODY in the state, yet they field TWO football teams, and while not BCS schools, one of them is pretty salty.

Population - 1,393,262

Schools:

Idaho Vandals
Boise State Broncos

Point Break Down:

+5 One Million
-3 Two schools
+1 Under 1mill per school

IDAHO TOTAL POINTS.....+3

#11 MISSISSIPPI - This is an interesting one. Miss only has 2 million people, yet they field three BCS schools. That's strong. If only Miss could have managed a championship here and there and they would be a top five state. Still very efficient and I have to hand it to them, they should be proud.

Population - 2,902,966

Schools:

Ole Miss Rebels
MIss State Bulldogs
Southern MIss Golden Showers

Point Break Down:

+4 Two Million
-2 Three Schools
+1 BCS

MISSISSIPPI TOTAL POINTS.....+3

Okay, here we go, top ten. First up, number ten this one is quite a shocker:

#10 WYOMING - Yup you heard me right, Wyoming. How can this be you ask, well because there are three states with a million people and no D1 football team, and there are six states with between six hundred thousand and a million people and NONE of them has a D1 football team, and there is one state in the union with five hundred thousand people or less, and that state is Wyoming and it has a D1 football team. That's right, not only is Wyoming the least populated state in the union, but they happen to be the only state with under a million people that actually fields a team. How's that for getting the most out of the least. Not only that, but their team, while no powerhouse, is respectable all things considered. Becuase Wyoming has the cajones to take the field with such daunting odds, I reward them with a top ten spot. Here's the breakdown:

Population - 506,529

School - Wyoming Cowboys

Point Break Down:

+5 Under a million
-4 One School
+1 under a million/school
+2 Bonus for being only under a million state with a D1 team

WYOMING TOTAL POINTS....4

#9 TENNESSEE - Tenn barely sneaks in the top tenn. While the state does have some mighty fine football, they a lot of people to choose from and really only one state school. However, they have big time teams and some championships so I give them credit, and it just was just enough to crack the top ten. Here's the break down:

Population - 5,900,962

Schools:

Tennessee Vols
Vandy Commadors
Memphis Tigers
Midd. Tenn State

Point Break Down:

+2.5 Five Million
-1.5 3.5 Schools
+2 Championships (Tenn, 1951,98)
+1 Powerhouse (Tenn)

TENNESSEE TOTAL POINTS.....+4

#8 WEST VIRGINIA - Another strange one I know, but when you look at the numbers, you gotta respect what the hillbillys do on the gridiron. With a million people they have not one but two D1 programs. That's strong. And while they have no championships to speak of, they are both BCS schools. That's very strong. Here's the break down:

Population - 1,815,354

Schools -

WV Mountaineers
Marshall Thundering Herd

Point Break Down:
+5 One Million
-3 Two Schools
+1 BCS
+1 Under a million/school

WEST VIRGINIA TOTAL POINTS.....4

#7 OHIO - Well buckeyes should feel good about themselves, not top five, but at least you made it to the top ten. This hurt me because when I originally started fumbling with numbers I based the formula on a million per school, and with that basis Ohio was near the last. They made the biggest jump when the numbers were switched from one to two million. Truthfully though, Ohio is a joke of a football state. Eleven freaking million people and only one legit program. Not only that but they only have two BCS schools total and one of them is a perinnial loser. Pathetic. If it was not for the championships and the numerous also rans Ohio would be in the cellar where they belong. As is they luck into the top ten by the narrowest of margins becuase I felt bad and upped the formula. Thank me later buckeys. Heres the rundown:

Population - 11,459,011

Schools:
OSU Buckeyes
Cinci Bearcats
Miami OH Redhawks
Bowling Green Falcons
Akron Zips
Ohio Bobcats
Kent Golden Flashes
Toledo Rockets

Point Break Down:

-0.5 Eleven Million
+0 Five Schools
+4 Championships (OSU 1942, 54, 68, 2002)
+1 Powerhouse

OHIO TOTAL POINTS.....4.5

And now the suspense builds. Who will be left out of the top five. Who deserves to walk with the big boys of college football and who is stuck with the also rans like Ohio.

I think by now we all can see who is still on the board. However the top five take a dramatic upturn in point totals. The top state more than doubles Ohio's score and the number six state is tied with Ohio so you see the discrepency between the top five and the rest.

The tribe has spoken, the number six state is...

#6 LOUISIANA - Ayeeeeeeeee, I gayruntee you dat dem dere cajuns can play dee foosball. However it is not enough to make it to the top five. Lousiana, despite having a population of over four million, only has one real football school. However they are a powerhouse and there are four other schools in the state which makes for a decent total. Mix in two championships and you have yourself a tie with ohio. Not too shabby. Here is the rundown:

Population - 4,515,770

Schools:

LSU Tigers
Tulane Green Wave
ULALA ragin cajuns
La. Monroe Indians
La. Tech Bulldogs

Point Break Down:

+3 Four Million
-1.5 Three Schools
+2 Championships (LSU, 1958, 2003)
+1 Powerhouse

LOUISIANA TOTAL POINT....4.5

And now on to the top five. The best of the best, the upper echelon of college football states. First up #5:

TMcGee86

1/14/2007, 10:49 PM

#5 TEXAS - Congrat's Texas, unlike your similarly huge brethren CA and NY, who because of their massive size became victims of the McGee Matrix, amazingly you guys actually field the right amount of Football teams. When you consider the size of Texas, 22 mill, the stats are flat out awesome. Texas fields ten, that's right TEN D1 football teams. And if that wasn't impressive enough nine of them are BCS teams! As much as I hate saxet, that's stout! Because Texas is so massive, and because they field more teams than anyone else I have decided to give them BCS credit for all ten teams. Mix in a powerhouse and a few championships and you have the #5 overall, TEXAS.

Population - 22,490,022

Schools:
UT Longhorns*
A&M Aggies*
Tech Red Raiders*
Baylor Bears*
Houston Cougars*
Rice Owls*
SMU Mustangs*
TCU Horn Frogs*
UTEP Minors*
North Texas Eagles

Point Break Down:

-6 Twenty Two Million
+5 Ten Schools
+1 BCS
+4 Championships (TCU 1938; A&M 1939; UT 1963, 69, 2005)
+1 Powerhouse (UT)

TEXAS TOTAL POINTS.....+6

#4 NEBRASKA - Well I have to admit that when I started this I really thought that Nebraska would win it all, and they almost did. When I originally ran the numbers with 1 million as the benchmark, Nebraska came in one point shy of the top spot. With the adjusted numbers they fell two spots. Still, considering that Nebraska only has a million people, there is probably no other program that you can say has done more with less. The only thing that hurts Nebraska is that NU is the ONLY school. Therefore there are no other options and that hurts. Obviously they should be pretty good because they are the only school in the state. But, it's not like a bunch of people are flocking to Nebraska for vacation or to see the sights so the fact that Nebbish has had so much success has got to be recognized. Great program and great efficiency. Congrats bugeaters. Heres the lowdown:

Population - 1,747,214

School - Nebraska Cornhuskers

Point Break Down:

+5 One Million
-4 One School
+5 Championships (1970,71,94,95,97)
+1 Powerhouse
+1 BCS

NEBRASKA TOTAL POINT.....+8

#3 FLORIDA - Well, when you have three very legit programs you tend to do very well in efficiency ratings. Despite the fact that they have 17 million people and 3 legit schools is not all that great, the simple fact of the matter is all three have won championships and Florida is the ONLY state with multiple powerhouses. That's strong. When you mix in a freaking slew of championships Florida makes a huge jump up to #3. Here's the breakdown:

Population - 17,397,161

Schools:
FSU Seminoles*
Miami Hurricanes*
Florida Gators*
South FLA Bulls
Central Fl Gold Knight
Florida Atlantic Owls
Fla Intl Gold Panthers

Point Break Down:
-3.5 Seventeen Million
+1 Five Schools
+2 Powerhouses (FSU, Miami)
+9 Championships (FSU 1993, 99; Florida 1996, 2006; Miami 1983, 87, 89, 91, 2001)

FLORIDA TOTAL POINTS.....+8.5

And now the first runner up. The second most efficient state when it comes to college football prowess. Who else but....

#2 ALABAMA - That's right Bama. Another state that benefited greatly from the adjusted numbers, but still a state that does a lot with a little. Granted there are only two real options in Bama and Auburn, but hey, there are only 4 million people so that is exactly in balance. When you add in UAB and Troy, not to mention the bazillion championships that Bama has won, you get the second most efficient state in the nation. War Tide. Roll Eagle.

Population - 4,530,182

Schools

Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
UAB Blazers
Troy Trojans

Point Break Down:

+3 Four Million Peeps
-2 Three Schools
+7 Championships (Alabama 1961,64,65,78,79,92; Auburn 1957)
+1 Powerhouse (Bama)

ALABAMA TOTAL POINTS.....9

And finally, number one.

Was there any doubt?

The most efficient state in the nation at college football is:

#1 OKLAHOMA!!!!!!!! -

No doubt this will draw some claims of bias, but I encourage anyone to look at the formula and tell me what is unfair. When I ran the numbers with 1 million as the benchmark, Oklahoma ran away with it, when I ran it with 2 million, Oklahoma was still solidly on top. The fact is, there are very few people in Oklahoma, and yet they field two BCS teams. I really thought Nebraska would win this when I started out but after looking, Oklahoma proves to be the best. Right at a million per school, one powerhouse and tons of success. That is the definition of efficient. Texas fans may protest, but think about it, if you are a big time recruit in Texas, there are pretty much two schools you are choosing from, if we are being honest. It boils down to if you are a whorn or an aggie. Well, if you are a big time recruit in Oklahoma there are also two schools you are choosing from, are you a Sooner or a poke. The only difference is Texas has 22 Million peeps to choose from and Oklahoma has 3. That's a huge difference. Some may say that OU is the only legit option, but let's face it OSU gets it's fair share of recruits, just ask Barry Sanders and Thurman Thomas. Throw in another school in Tulsa and you get a state that does it right, no single school, no loading up on nonBCS schools, no lack of championships, just good football. When laid out, it looks like this:

Population - 3,523,553

Schools:

Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

Point Break Down:

+3.5 Three Million People
-2 Three Schools
+7 Championships (OU 1950, 1955, 1956, 1974, 1975, 1985, 2000)
+1 Powerhouse (OU)

OKLAHOMA TOTAL POINTS......+9.5

So, what can I say, we are the best and I have a serious problem for taking the time to plot all this out. But, either way, there it is. Enjoy.

OU-HSV

1/14/2007, 10:52 PM

Words...words...make them stop...make them stop!!
heh, props on the research

soonerboomer93

1/14/2007, 10:56 PM

um, since when is Tulsa in a BCS conference?

setem

1/14/2007, 11:01 PM

What about Oral Roberts....I just wanted to say..Oral..hehe ORAL!!!

TMcGee86

1/14/2007, 11:06 PM

um, since when is Tulsa in a BCS conference?

uh, yeah that's a good point. For some reason I had C-usa as a BCS conf.

Not real sure where I got that.

TUSooner

1/14/2007, 11:10 PM

That was way more interesting thatn I thought - once I skipped all that formula stuff and went straight to the results. :) But I didn't know Tulsa's conference (CONFusa, right?) is a BCS conference>

EDIT: I obviously failed to read all the posts before mine.

Mongo

1/14/2007, 11:12 PM

um, since when is Tulsa in a BCS conference?

You actually spent time reading all that and pin pointed an obvious flaw? SPEK

soonerhubs

1/14/2007, 11:27 PM

I'm just gonna trust all the stuff I'm too lazy to read and say, "Yay! Oklahoma is the best!" :);):D

setem

1/14/2007, 11:34 PM

Oral...

Awesome post man. I like how Oklahoma is #1!

Stoop Dawg

1/14/2007, 11:53 PM

No doubt this will draw some claims of bias, but I encourage anyone to look at the formula and tell me what is unfair.

Bias? I think that's obvious. Whether the formula itself is fair or not is irrelevent since you failed to even bother to follow the formula.

Still, interesting concept.

Stitch Face

1/14/2007, 11:55 PM

This would be worth a championship trophy if we were Auburn.

KingDavid

1/14/2007, 11:58 PM

Boffingham

1/15/2007, 12:50 AM

while you were figuring all of that out, i saved a bunch of money on car insurance by switching to geico

Fraggle145

1/15/2007, 02:04 AM

you didnt count Florida's championship from this year... looks good to me though. Although I would argue UGA had a championship in 1942 even though it wasnt the AP they had half of the voting agencies on their side.

IronSooner

1/15/2007, 02:39 AM

TheLadiesMike

1/15/2007, 03:07 AM

I, for one, find the formula flawed and unfair.

First, a flaw. You state:

I first wanted a starting point to decide what my equilibrium should be, so I took the total population of the US and divided it by the number of D1 schools. The total population of the US is roughly 290 million, and there are 119 D1 schools in the US. This is approx 2.5 million per school. However, in the larger states like California, the population can be concentrated in certain cites, so I have rounded that number down to 2 million per school and used that figure as a basis for the equilibrium.

Then you say:

*The only tweak to this formula is that for all states with a population of over two million, I count non-bcs schools as 1/2 a school.

And you add:

Now, I know this only takes into D1 schools, and this is on purpose, I also didn't take into account any military academy.

How can you divide by the number of schools (119) to get your population equilibrium, yet throw out some schools (military academies)?

How can you randomly round down the population equilibrium from 2.5 million to 2 million?

And how can you use the number of schools as part of the formula, yet vary the value assigned to a school (and base that variation on state population!)?

Also, the entire purpose of the population equlibrium is to start every state on a level playing field when analyzing the institutions. Instead, you throw in random bonuses to states with a small population and penalties towards states with a large population:

+1 point per championship and 2 points per championship if you have less than one million per school.

However, the bigger you get, the more it hurts to not have a championship. Thus:

-1 points if No Championships with over 2 million per school
-2 points if No Championships with over 3 million per school
-3 points if No Championships with over 4 million per school
-4 points if No Championships with over 5 million per school

+1 point if you have less than one million people per D1 school.

-1 if you have one million people but no D1 school.

+2 if you have a D1 school in a state with less than 1million people. (The Wyoming Rule.)

Another flaw among those latter three rules - Wyoming receives plus 1 for having less than 1 million people per D1 school and plus 2 for having a D1 school in a state with less than a million people.

However, I only went back to 1938 and I only counted AP or BCS national championships.

That hurts the programs that did their best earlier in college football history, which are often eastern schools in heavily populated states.

+1 point if all the state's schools are in BCS auto-bid conferences.

This point was wrongly awarded to North Carolina, Mississippi and West Virginia.

I think to do what you are intending, you need to equalize for population at the beginning, by equalizing based on each states population and number of schools.

Then award points for things like championships, Heisman winners, maybe # of teams with winning records, etc.

This mostly seems like you are throwing numbers around because you feel like it.

boomersooner28

1/15/2007, 03:47 AM

Good stuff. Fun and funny to read.

I have one question: In the state of Florida, you only count 2 powerhouses, Miami and FSU. Why is Florida NOT a powerhouse?

SleestakSooner

1/15/2007, 03:55 AM

Since population density has changed rather drastically in certain areas since 1938 you can't relate current population estimates with the results from that era. To be fair you would need to use the population from the year in question.

Also I would suggest taking into account top ten in the polls at the end of each year to help decide how efficient each state was.

I do appreciate the effort you put forth, but I agree with theLadiesMike in that you should not leave out ANY D1 schools for any reason and you should not alter or round down the population so extremely if you want to get a truly fair result.

sooner n houston

1/15/2007, 08:44 AM

It was a fun read, thx for putting it together.

BermudaSooner

1/15/2007, 09:57 AM

Good read. With a lot of time and research you could refine this to truly produce a meaningful result. I think what you did was probably a good proxy though.

Suggested refinements:
Use population from each year, rather than today's population.

Use high school population from 2-3 years before rather than total population to equalize states such as Florida and Arizona that have a lot of older population, or have seen a big change in population.

Use top 10s or top 25s, or number of wins rather than just MNCs.

I am a bit concerned that, as you point out, some of the state's positions vary widely based upon your methodology of 1 million or 2 million--it means the formula isn't very robust. Maybe some of these changes would help to stabilize the formula.

All in all, good work and interesting idea.

arcman46

1/15/2007, 10:01 AM

Somebody has way waaaaaaaaaaay too much time on their hands.:rolleyes:

TMcGee86

1/15/2007, 10:47 AM

I, for one, find the formula flawed and unfair.

First, a flaw. You state:

Then you say:

And you add:

How can you divide by the number of schools (119) to get your population equilibrium, yet throw out some schools (military academies)?

How can you randomly round down the population equilibrium from 2.5 million to 2 million?

And how can you use the number of schools as part of the formula, yet vary the value assigned to a school (and base that variation on state population!)?

Also, the entire purpose of the population equlibrium is to start every state on a level playing field when analyzing the institutions. Instead, you throw in random bonuses to states with a small population and penalties towards states with a large population:

Another flaw among those latter three rules - Wyoming receives plus 1 for having less than 1 million people per D1 school and plus 2 for having a D1 school in a state with less than a million people.

That hurts the programs that did their best earlier in college football history, which are often eastern schools in heavily populated states.

This point was wrongly awarded to North Carolina, Mississippi and West Virginia.

I think to do what you are intending, you need to equalize for population at the beginning, by equalizing based on each states population and number of schools.

Then award points for things like championships, Heisman winners, maybe # of teams with winning records, etc.

This mostly seems like you are throwing numbers around because you feel like it.

Well...yeah, basically I was.

But those are great suggestions and I will implement them and see what it changes.

TMcGee86

1/15/2007, 10:49 AM

Fun stuff . . . but you might double check BCS status on some of those other conferences. Look at Texas: you said it has 9 BCS schools . . . but it only has 4, the ones that are in the Big XII. Baylor shouldn't count. But maybe TCU should . . .

Yeah, I'm an idiot, somehow I counted CUSA as a BCS conference.

I may have been slightly drunk at that point. And most definitely cabin fever had set in. lol.

TMcGee86

1/15/2007, 10:52 AM

Good stuff. Fun and funny to read.

I have one question: In the state of Florida, you only count 2 powerhouses, Miami and FSU. Why is Florida NOT a powerhouse?

Well, when I first started thinking of this UF hadn't beat OSU yet, so I didn't consider them as big as I do now.

With two championships I think you are right, they deserve powerhouse status.

TMcGee86

1/15/2007, 11:12 AM

setem

1/15/2007, 11:17 AM

You scratched my cd...

OUmillenium

1/15/2007, 12:39 PM

RedstickSooner

1/15/2007, 01:06 PM

Doesn't Louisiana have, like, 5 schools? You gave it -1.5 points for having 3, I believe.

Them extra points would move it up to a tie with Tejas - and isn't it always funny when Tejas has to share its ranking, title, or accolade with someone else? ;)

TMcGee86

1/15/2007, 01:07 PM

Which Texas board did you have the original discussion on?:) Those turds are always trying to take credit for OU's success with Texas players. My counter is always "If Texas players are the true factor in the Championship equation, then where are all the championships for Rice, Baylor, TCU, Houston, etc. who have a much higher % of Texas players on their team than OU does?" That usually ends the argument.

Great post by the way. I too am iced in. I had a feeling we would finish high but not #1. Did not think Texas would finish as high as #5. Alabama and Nebraska also make sense in ranking where they do. Little surprised to see LSU ranked so high.

Great stuff!

It was a Dallas Cowboy message board. And there are tons of whorns on there and they love to bash anything remotely Sooner or Oklahoma related.

And thats a great point about the other texas teams, I will remember that for next time. thanks.

And I was the same, I figured OK would finish high, but I really thought Nebbish would win before I really ran any numbers. I also thought Arkansas would do better but then I realized they dont have the championships to contend with the others.

I'm curious to see what happens when i factor in more things like what has been suggested on this board such as all-time records and what not.

JLMSOONER

1/15/2007, 01:49 PM

WOW!

MamaMia

1/15/2007, 02:01 PM

Can somebody pm me the crib notes?