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View Full Version : What's the thinking on the NCAA vs NIT?



8timechamps
1/13/2007, 07:26 PM
It's looking like an NIT year, what do you folks think?

I do think we will be much better next year. Anyway, NIT games at least offer the possibility of a home game (or two).

ouradu
1/13/2007, 08:37 PM
If it were over now, I'm not sure we'd get an NIT bid. Looking down the rest of the schedule, it's going to be tough. Even getting an NIT bid isn't as easy as it used to be before the NCAA took it over. Now they have spots locked up for the conference regular season winners that don't make the big tourney, which takes a few spots away. Then you got to figure that teams like Kstate, missouri, nebraska, Iowa St, Baylor, unless one makes the tourney, all of them will be competing with us for a couple NIT spots. It's going to be tough. I think today, though, showed that this team isn't going to give up.

kevpks
1/13/2007, 10:40 PM
I think we'll make the NIT. This team does have a lot of heart and they play great D. Hopefully Nate Carter can keep playing like he did today. It also would have been nice to have Longar in the game.

royalfan5
1/13/2007, 10:44 PM
They also cut the NIT field back to 32 teams from 40 this year. With the rule changes might back the NIT take less power conference teams, and give an NIT advantage to schools that will sell out in the NIT as opposed to schools that will have half-full arenas.

crawfish
1/14/2007, 12:17 AM
We'll need to go 8-8 in conference for an NIT big, and even that won't be a sure thing. Not that it's a sure thing we'll go 8-8...

Ash
1/14/2007, 02:34 AM
At this point, I think the NIT could be considered an achievement for this team. If they could win one or a few in it, that would be great experience.

King Crimson
1/14/2007, 03:20 AM
At this point, I think the NIT could be considered an achievement for this team. If they could win one or a few in it, that would be great experience.

I agree. and i think it's a reasonable goal and one to build on for next year.

to craw's point: if we go 8-8 in conference, Capel should be conference Coach of the year. playing UT, ATM, OSU, Tech, and Baylor twice is going to be tough load for only 8 losses. beating the North teams is going to be key.....NU, CU, ISU, KSU, MU.....though KSU won at MU, and ISU showed they can play at a level today i'm not sure we've shown.

Ash
1/14/2007, 03:27 AM
I agree. and i think it's a reasonable goal and one to build on for next year.

to craw's point: if we go 8-8 in conference, Capel should be conference Coach of the year. playing UT, ATM, OSU, Tech, and Baylor twice is going to be tough load for only 8 losses. beating the North teams is going to be key.....NU, CU, ISU, KSU, MU.....though KSU won at MU, and ISU showed they can play at a level today i'm not sure we've shown.

Yeah, I'd agree with that.

And while the NIT shouldn't always be the goal, it's nothing to sniff at as well. Especially for a young team during a rebuilding year. Teams that do well in the NIT often go on, the next season, to do well in the NCAAs.

King Crimson
1/14/2007, 03:41 AM
even with Kelvin and James and Reynolds.....i think we're a bubble team. James didn't beat us today.....he's no Durant, that's for sure. Durant is ready to play anywhere near as i can tell.....James is a talented guy who needs some work. Reynolds has a bad game for every good game. we didnt' match up with Villanova because they shoot the ball well....and we don't.

i like the Capel hire....and i can take a hit this year.

OUmillenium
1/14/2007, 03:49 PM
Great chance at NIT. We should finish with a winning record. If we are 500 or better in conference we will be in the NCAA. NIT is my prediction.

8timechamps
1/14/2007, 04:50 PM
I agree that the NIT isn't a losers tourney anymore. I also agree that it's not a given that we will get the invite. Keep in mind we have a 25 year record at risk of being in post season tourneys (NCAA or NIT)....longest in the nation.

I too think an NIT bid would be a great feat for this team, and the other Big XII teams should take their shots now, because I am 100% sure that Capel will have this team rollin' as early as next year.

Eielson
1/14/2007, 11:51 PM
I agree that the NIT isn't a losers tourney anymore. I also agree that it's not a given that we will get the invite. Keep in mind we have a 25 year record at risk of being in post season tourneys (NCAA or NIT)....longest in the nation.

I too think an NIT bid would be a great feat for this team, and the other Big XII teams should take their shots now, because I am 100% sure that Capel will have this team rollin' as early as next year.

I agree. He is a good coach. He just hasn't had much time with these players and they aren't overly talented. Crocker looks like a good start and he seems to be a pretty good recruiter, which gets me extremely excited for 2009. Here are three reasons-

Already commited, up to 6-8.5 according to scout-
http://oklahoma.rivals.com/viewprospect.asp?pr_key=48884&Sport=2

http://oklahoma.rivals.com/viewprospect.asp?pr_key=51353&Sport=2

From what I could see he was the best player on the team that won the State Championship easily...as a Freshman!
http://oklahoma.rivals.com/viewprospect.asp?pr_key=41773&Sport=2

King Crimson
1/15/2007, 12:09 AM
Henry is going to Kansas.

Eielson
1/15/2007, 12:10 AM
Oh, and just so you know, I don't think of this team as not being good until those 2009 recruits come in. I think we have a decent team coming together.

We've got Crocker already. Then we've got a shut down guard along with a good sized all-around guard. Maze looks like he'll could be a decent PG. Down low we'll have Blake Griffin and Keith Clark. That doesn't look too bad to me. It could be a top 25 team and win a couple games in an NCAA Tournament. That will keep the fans happy and the Oklahoma recruits interesetd in this team as a real contender. If we can get the other two I see a National Championship in our future, or at least a Final Four.

Rock Hard Corn Frog
1/15/2007, 09:45 AM
I forgot about the NIT field shrinking. That might make us one of those 8 teams that would have gotten in that don't.

I do think 7-9 16-13 plus a first round win in the Big 12 tourney would probably get us in the NIT. 7-9 would put us in about 7th place. I think this team would be doing really well to get to 7-9 though. I think 6-10 is more likely. Our next two games on paper are the easiest conference games left on the schedule. We have to win both.

Eielson
1/15/2007, 10:21 AM
Henry is going to Kansas.

He is a sophomore. Things can change.

OSUAggie
1/15/2007, 11:05 AM
He is a sophomore. Things can change.

If he doesn't go to Kansas, OU won't be the next choice.

Big Red Ron
1/15/2007, 11:56 AM
If he doesn't go to Kansas, OU won't be the next choice.Beat it kid!

Eielson
1/15/2007, 12:01 PM
If he doesn't go to Kansas, OU won't be the next choice.

You never know, it could happen. It doesn't seem too far fetched. He is from Oklahoma and Capel has done pretty well recruiting in the state so far. If Capel can get this team playing well and especially if he got Orton, I think we'd have a decent chance. If if we don't get Henry, Orton and Hardick would be great.

Boffingham
1/18/2007, 10:40 AM
We can't beat a ranked opponent. It will take more than 1 or 2 wins against a ranked opponent to make the NCAA. Pack your bags for NYC...it's NIT time.

If we're lucky

Rock Hard Corn Frog
1/18/2007, 11:10 AM
We can't beat a ranked opponent. It will take more than 1 or 2 wins against a ranked opponent to make the NCAA. Pack your bags for NYC...it's NIT time.

If we're lucky


I'll be really happy if we make the NIT. I know it sounds like low expectations but I think 7-9 would be a great effort. If we were in the North this year I could see maybe 8-9 wins but in the South we are probably looking at no better than 5th.

We're not that far off though. I like how the team is coming along and we should be better next year.

crawfish
1/18/2007, 11:15 AM
I'll be really happy if we make the NIT. I know it sounds like low expectations but I think 7-9 would be a great effort.

It's not low for this year. We had so little experience going into the season, along with the new coach, that it was bound to be a tough year. The simple fact that our games have either been double-digit wins or double-digit losses tells me a lot. We've got talent but not much maturity.

We'll get there. We'll probably struggle again next year, with 4-6 new players, although not as badly as this year. The NEXT year...we are back in the mix.

Soonerborn03
1/18/2007, 02:48 PM
I'm happy with a post season bid to anything. I think NCAA's is a bit too high to hope for right now. If the team keeps improving, perhaps they'll have a shot later on, but as of right now, I'm looking for an NIT bid. I think they are playing at a level that could get them that invite to the NIT.

OUstud
1/18/2007, 03:43 PM
If we keep playing well, we have the potential to beat Baylor twice, A&M and Tech at home, and every north foe save for KU. Doesn't mean we will, but it could happen.

8timechamps
1/18/2007, 03:51 PM
CU jsut beat ISU, so maybe there's some hope.

I would very much like to see an NIT bid, but I am not getting my hopes up.

Also, does anyone else think that Sampson couldn't have picked a better time to leave? I am not knocking him in any way, just saying that he probably knew it was going to be a tough year, and that couldn't have been a better (additional) reason to go to IU.

Ash
1/18/2007, 04:25 PM
CU jsut beat ISU, so maybe there's some hope.

I would very much like to see an NIT bid, but I am not getting my hopes up.

Also, does anyone else think that Sampson couldn't have picked a better time to leave? I am not knocking him in any way, just saying that he probably knew it was going to be a tough year, and that couldn't have been a better (additional) reason to go to IU.

Yeah, except he was bringing in a top 10 recruiting class, who knows what it would have been like had those guys been here. No doubt, some adjustments because of inexperience, but apples and oranges in terms of the team that's here as opposed to the team Sampson would have had.

8timechamps
1/18/2007, 07:24 PM
Yeah, except he was bringing in a top 10 recruiting class, who knows what it would have been like had those guys been here. No doubt, some adjustments because of inexperience, but apples and oranges in terms of the team that's here as opposed to the team Sampson would have had.

Yeah, I knew he had a good recruiting class, and I also realize that this season's anticipated performance wouldn't send him packing, but it's "nice" for him to not have to have dealt with it.

King Crimson
1/18/2007, 07:47 PM
OU is 0-6 against top 50 rpi teams and the best team we've defeated (in the rpi) is Nebraska at 81 (we're 86). Rpi is still kind of skewed but starting to mean more. but, bottom line, if we don't beat the ATM, OSU, UT, or KU's of the world down the stretch at least 2 or 3 times we'll be 5-11/6-10 in conference and in the mid 60's or so in the RPI. the latter might be enough for the NIT.

skycat
1/19/2007, 12:33 AM
I don't think there's any way a 6-10 Big XII team with no quality OOC wins gets an NIT bid this year. Especially one that doesn't draw real well (yes, that matters in the NIT).

The bad news for Sooner fans is that you play ISU, Mizzou, and K-State all on the road. I think you'll lose at least two of those games, where you'd have a lot better shot at picking a couple of those up if they were home games.

It probably doesn't matter where you play KU, but CU and NU would have been the best shots for road wins.

It's going to be tough to find wins in the South this year. The NIT would be a great accomplishment.

8timechamps
1/19/2007, 02:04 AM
I don't think there's any way a 6-10 Big XII team with no quality OOC wins gets an NIT bid this year. Especially one that doesn't draw real well (yes, that matters in the NIT).

The bad news for Sooner fans is that you play ISU, Mizzou, and K-State all on the road. I think you'll lose at least two of those games, where you'd have a lot better shot at picking a couple of those up if they were home games.

It probably doesn't matter where you play KU, but CU and NU would have been the best shots for road wins.

It's going to be tough to find wins in the South this year. The NIT would be a great accomplishment.

Not to mention the reduction in the NIT Field. Not sure, but I think they removed 8 slots.

royalfan5
1/19/2007, 08:50 AM
Not to mention the reduction in the NIT Field. Not sure, but I think they removed 8 slots.
and the NIT also now has to take Conference Regular season champs that don't win their tournament and don't get an at-large. That will add more low and mid major teams to the NIT than before.

Rock Hard Corn Frog
1/19/2007, 09:40 AM
I don't think there's any way a 6-10 Big XII team with no quality OOC wins gets an NIT bid this year. Especially one that doesn't draw real well (yes, that matters in the NIT).

The bad news for Sooner fans is that you play ISU, Mizzou, and K-State all on the road. I think you'll lose at least two of those games, where you'd have a lot better shot at picking a couple of those up if they were home games.

It probably doesn't matter where you play KU, but CU and NU would have been the best shots for road wins.

It's going to be tough to find wins in the South this year. The NIT would be a great accomplishment.


I agree 6-10 is going to be tough to make the NIT. I don't know how much or if RPI is a factor in seleting the NIT or not. I think our RPI probably will be pretty high based on SOS.

My thinking is that we probably will beat Bay and TT at home, win one of the Big 12 North games on the road (most likely MU of the 3) and have a good shot of winning at Baylor. That would be 6 wins. Collectively we have a decent shot of winning one of the home games against the top teams A&M, OSU, Tex and KU but individually they all will be tough. Obviously I'm not real optimistic about winning in Stillwater or Collie Station.

That's why if we can get to 7-9 this year I'd be real happy.

OUstud
1/19/2007, 12:04 PM
So, let's just say that we started playing lights out, will 9 wins get us in the NCAA tournament (provided we win at least one in OKC)? Or will it have to be 10?

Rock Hard Corn Frog
1/19/2007, 02:20 PM
So, let's just say that we started playing lights out, will 9 wins get us in the NCAA tournament (provided we win at least one in OKC)? Or will it have to be 10?


We would be close because that would guarantee at least one win against a top 25 team.

Just guessing but hypothetically if that were to happen and we got to 9-7 18-11 overall including Longwood we probably would need 2 wins in the conf tourney (which would mean a 2nd rd win against someone like KU or Texas. I think that would be the minimum that would get us in.

Again I think just 7-9 and an NIT bid would be an accomplishment.

We need to win tommorrow because the next two games @Stillwater and @ Collie Station may not be pretty.

Crimsontothecore
1/19/2007, 02:35 PM
I look at the remaining schedule and I don't know how anyone sees another 6 conference wins without some major upsets. Here's my opinion:

Baylor in Norman- Should be a win
OSU in Stillwater- loss
A&M in College Station- loss
T Tech in Norman- OU will have to play very well to win
OSU in Norman- Loss
Baylor in Waco- A possible road win but probably a loss
Iowa ST. in Ames- Loss (they nearly beat KU there)
A&M in Norman- Loss
Missouri in Columbia- Loss
Texas in Norman- Loss
Kansas in Norman- Loss
K. State in Manhattan- loss

I see OU ending the season a probable 4-12 in conference play.
7 wins would be a miracle and still not enough for an NIT bid.

Ash
1/19/2007, 02:58 PM
As of right now, there are three B12 teams that would go dancin' without having to win the conference tourney: Kansas, aTm, and okie lite.

Tech and Saxet can get there but need some quality wins.

OU isn't even on the radar at this point. I think just to get the nod, they'd not only have to do well against the heavy hitters in the conference, they'd have to steal one or two against them on the road just to turn heads during the selection process. It's not going to be enough to just win a few more and be from the B12. The tourney committee is going to be looking at RPI, schedule and who we beat (and who we lost to).

IMHO, OU would have to win the conference tourney or (out of nowhere) go at least 4-3 in remaining games against Tech, A&M, Kansas, Texas and OSU with at least one on the road.

OSUAggie
1/19/2007, 02:59 PM
I think 7 would get you into the NIT, depending on how the rest of the conference fares.

fwsooner22
1/19/2007, 03:10 PM
As of right now, there are three B12 teams that would go dancin' without having to win the conference tourney: Kansas, aTm, and okie lite.

Tech and Saxet can get there but need some quality wins.

OU isn't even on the radar at this point. I think just to get the nod, they'd not only have to do well against the heavy hitters in the conference, they'd have to steal one or two against them on the road just to turn heads during the selection process. It's not going to be enough to just win a few more and be from the B12. The tourney committee is going to be looking at RPI, schedule and who we beat (and who we lost to).

IMHO, OU would have to win the conference tourney or (out of nowhere) go at least 4-3 in remaining games against Tech, A&M, Kansas, Texas and OSU with at least one on the road.

Texas is in ..........easily....probably a five seed.....Tech will make it too....and we all know why

fwsooner22
1/19/2007, 03:12 PM
I look at the remaining schedule and I don't know how anyone sees another 6 conference wins without some major upsets. Here's my opinion:

Baylor in Norman- Should be a win
OSU in Stillwater- loss
A&M in College Station- loss
T Tech in Norman- OU will have to play very well to win
OSU in Norman- Loss
Baylor in Waco- A possible road win but probably a loss
Iowa ST. in Ames- Loss (they nearly beat KU there)
A&M in Norman- Loss
Missouri in Columbia- Loss
Texas in Norman- Loss
Kansas in Norman- Loss
K. State in Manhattan- loss

I see OU ending the season a probable 4-12 in conference play.
7 wins would be a miracle and still not enough for an NIT bid.

If we have an overall winning record we will make it to the NIT

Ash
1/19/2007, 03:48 PM
Texas is in ..........easily....probably a five seed.....Tech will make it too....and we all know why

heh. talking seeding in January. FWIW, I think that's a tad too high for saxeT and I'd disagree that they're a lock at this point.

OSUAggie
1/19/2007, 03:51 PM
Definitely still too early to make such predictions. Especially on Tech. Texas does looks like a future 5 seed now, but there are a lot of games left.

Rock Hard Corn Frog
1/19/2007, 04:15 PM
I look at the remaining schedule and I don't know how anyone sees another 6 conference wins without some major upsets. Here's my opinion:

Baylor in Norman- Should be a win
OSU in Stillwater- loss
A&M in College Station- loss
T Tech in Norman- OU will have to play very well to win
OSU in Norman- Loss
Baylor in Waco- A possible road win but probably a loss
Iowa ST. in Ames- Loss (they nearly beat KU there)
A&M in Norman- Loss
Missouri in Columbia- Loss
Texas in Norman- Loss
Kansas in Norman- Loss
K. State in Manhattan- loss

I see OU ending the season a probable 4-12 in conference play.
7 wins would be a miracle and still not enough for an NIT bid.

I think OU should win @MU. They managed to play KU close but I think they are fading as the season wears on and they aren't able to get as many easy baskets from turnovers. I can see us getting one more win somewhere along the line (most likely @Bay or home against OSU or A&M) so I'd say 6-10 would be my prediction at this point. I do think 5-11 is more likely than 7-9 though. I hope I'm wrong but this is a tough year to be rebuilding in the South.


KU, Tex, OSU and A&M all make the tourney easily. TT is going to be squarely on the bubble.