BCS Math

[yermom]

here are the current BCS rankings:

1. Ohio State (guaranteed BCS spot)
2. Michigan (guaranteed BCS spot)
3. USC (guaranteed BCS spot)
4. Florida (winner of Fla/Ark guaranteed in)
5. Notre Dame (probably in even if they lose to USC)
6. Arkansas (winner of Fla/Ark guaranteed in)
7. West Virginia (not sure here, still has to play USF and Rutgers)
8. Wisconsin (out, going to Capitol One Bowl, 3rd team in Big 10/11)
9. Louisville (not sure here either, still has to play Pitt and UConn)
10. LSU (if they make it Arkansas doesn't)
11. Boise State (would be nice if they lose to Nevada)
12. Auburn (too many SEC teams. likely out, unless Florida loses to FSU AND Arkansas if Arkanas beats LSU)
13. Texas (in if they beat A&M and Nebraska)
14. Rutgers (likely out, unless they knock out WV)
15. Oklahoma

so, in front of us are:

4 SEC teams (only 2 can make it)
3 Big East Teams (only 2 can make it)
3 Big 10/11 teams (only 2 can make it)
1 Pac-10 Team
2 non-BCS teams
1 Big 12 Team

there are slots for:

#1 and #2 (tOSU and probably USC)
ACC Champ (GT/Wake/BC)
Big East Champ (WV/Louisville)
Pac-10 Champ, likely #2 so this is at-large
Big 10 Champ, #1 so at-large (likely Michigan takes this spot in the Rose Bowl)
Big 12 Champ (likely Texas or Nebraska)
SEC Champ (Florida or Arkansas)
2 at-large teams

so there are four open slots basically, but there are about 4 teams ahead of us that can't make a BCS game, and 4 that can

it looks like we would be #5 if everything goes as expected

but, if we TCOB and basically anyone slips up in front of us we make one of the BCS bowls

am i missing anything?

[oklaclarinet]

Don't forget that the ACC champ isn't currently and probably won't be ranked in the top 14.

[sooneron]

The acc champ is accounted for. :confused:

[yermom]

Don't forget that the ACC champ isn't currently and probably won't be ranked in the top 14.

if Boise wins out they are in either way, any other conference champ isn't going to likely be in the top 16

[sooneron]

I like my bcs poll better, we're 14th currently.
http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/4594/collfootballsq8.th.jpg (http://img296.imageshack.us/my.php?image=collfootballsq8.jpg)

The red numbers are what are taken into account for the rankings- the lower the number, the better the ranking.

Each loss equals a point.
I took margin of victory into account- no more ***** pc crap. However, if the game was played against a D1aa school or worse, the points do not count towards the total. This caused Fla to lose some points.
Opp win % counts as this - take the average of the opponents for a particular team in % and subtract that from perfect - 1.0, then multiply that times 2 - that is the power ranking for the schedule. I had to subtract from perfect to arrive at lowest score being the best.

I also factored in the opps win % that a team lost to - so Mich lost to tOSU- 1.0- subtract that from 1.0 and multiply by 2 = 0 . This hurt USC quite a bit, but I found it to be fair.
Then, I took the team's average rank from the two major polls and factored that in on the score alone.

OU is now BCS bowl eligible in my computer (top 14 in bcs rules), although beating osu won't help our strength of schedule.

If we weren't screwed by the refs in eugene and I estimated that our average rank would be around 10 (I didn't want to give the voters too much credit, as they don't give us much), we would be ahead of Boise State in my poll, fyi.

[sooneron]

deleted can't get pic to attach

http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/4594/collfootballsq8.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[blackbeauty02]

i knew that oregon would come back and haunt us in the end. even when everyone said OU won't go to a bowl game anyways (after losing Bummer and the ducks "loss")

[sooneron]

http://http://img57.imageshack.us/img57/6271/collfootballwm7.jpg

[sooneron]

http://img354.imageshack.us/img354/5312/collfootballob6.gif

Yaayyyyyyyyy!!!!!

[yermom]

well, i'm sure if i came up with a formula, i could rank OU higher too ;)

[sooneron]

well, i'm sure if i came up with a formula, i could rank OU higher too ;)
Actually, I didn't do any tweaking to make OU higher. I just took certain things into account. My formula could be flawed in that usc cannot overtake mich, b/c I placed so much emphasis on who you lose to.

I ran the numbers and usc doesn't catch them, no one does. I may try to lower the significance of the opps % that teams have lost to and just see what happens.

[AzianSooner]

LSU will fall out and so is Auburn from the top 13.

Louisville could be too if they don't be careful.

[Sooner98]

Taking away the conference champs, there are four at large spots available:

1) Michigan is a lock
2) Assuming Boise St. wins, they're a lock
3) Notre Dame is probably a lock, even if they lose to USC
4) As of right now, the SEC CG loser will probably get the last spot

If we win Saturday (and assuming Tex wins Friday), we'll almost certainly end up in the top 14, which would make us eligible. We would then need to hope for a few things to happen to improve our chances:

1) Boise St is our biggest obstacle right now. Hope for a Nevada win.
2) West Virginia needs to stay out of the top five of the BCS (I think? Maybe it's top four) which would give them an automatic spot. They probably won't lose, but cross your fingers they don't move up.
3) Like I said, Notre Dame is probably a lock, but a blowout loss to USC could change this.
4) Hope for a Arkansas win over LSU, which would knock the Tigers out of consideration. Then, hope that the bowls would find a two-loss OU more attractive than a two-loss Arkansas or Florida.
5) If WV wins the Big East, hope that the bowls find a two-loss OU more attractive than a one-loss Louisville (which would probably happen).

That's pretty much it. Am I missing anything here?

[Sooner98]

Wait, forget #5, a one-loss Louisville would automatically be the conference champ. Hope that a two-loss OU is more attractive than a one-loss WV, is what I should have said. A Louisville loss to Pitt would also help immensely.

[sooneron]

Taking away the conference champs, there are four at large spots available:

1) Michigan is a lock

yep

2) Assuming Boise St. wins, they're a lock

unfortunately


3) Notre Dame is probably a lock, even if they lose to USC

Regardless of their status, they go ahead of us due to the losses and whom they were to.


4) As of right now, the SEC CG loser will probably get the last spot

If UFla beats fsu, then yes.


If we win Saturday (and assuming Tex wins Friday), we'll almost certainly end up in the top 14, which would make us eligible. We would then need to hope for a few things to happen to improve our chances:

1) Boise St is our biggest obstacle right now. Hope for a Nevada win.

Goes without saying


2) West Virginia needs to stay out of the top five of the BCS (I think? Maybe it's top four) which would give them an automatic spot. They probably won't lose, but cross your fingers they don't move up.

I don;t think they will unless, ark and fla lose this weekend


3) Like I said, Notre Dame is probably a lock, but a blowout loss to USC could change this.

won't happen, they will score 21 on usc


4) Hope for a Arkansas win over LSU, which would knock the Tigers out of consideration. Then, hope that the bowls would find a two-loss OU more attractive than a two-loss Arkansas or Florida.

I think we need Fla to win that one.

5) If WV wins the Big East, hope that the bowls find a two-loss OU more attractive than a one-loss Louisville (which would probably happen).

Yep