PAW
11/20/2006, 12:11 PM
Yea, I know they're stats (from just the Big XII games), but maybe there's something in here that catches your eye. It's something I've been putting together for the past couple of weeks for some other guys. Not too bad on the previous predictions:
OU 38 - 0 Baylor (dang TO's, I thought this was the week for a shut-out)
OU 38 - 17 TT
OU 24 - 17 aTm
OU 31 - 17 MO
If we could have limited some of the TO's, they would have been even closer.
Anyway, OU still has a shot at the Big XII CG, but they need to take care of those sometimes pesky pokes.
SCORING OFFENSE SCORING DEFENSE
2. Oklahoma State...... 34.7 1. Oklahoma............ 14.3
6. Oklahoma............ 25.9 10.Oklahoma State...... 30.9
PASS OFFENSE PASS DEFENSE
10.Oklahoma State...... 188.7 1. Oklahoma............ 154.4
11.Oklahoma............ 166.0 9. Oklahoma State...... 251.1
RUSHING OFFENSE RUSHING DEFENSE
1. Oklahoma State...... 223.7 2. Oklahoma............ 78.6
5. Oklahoma............ 186.4 9. Oklahoma State...... 162.6
OSU rushing carries YPC
Dantrell Savage 91 7.2
Mike Hamilton 97 5.6
Keith Toston 91 5.9
Bobby Reid 99 4.5
OSU is leading the Big XII in rushing. Their YPC is impressive and they run out of the spread, which we’ve seen before. Because of the way the OU D has been playing, their rushing game does not concern me outside of Reid. He has more carries than anyone on their team. Just like when I said before the aTm game with McGee, OU must contain Reid when the play breaks down. I cursed the first couple of times McGee took off for first downs in the first half of the aTm game and will prolly do so again on Saturday. OU can’t let them convert 3rd downs with Reid’s legs. I would like to see Rufus personally assigned to shadow Reid all game long and hopefully he won’t over-run too many tackles. A couple of slobberknockers when he steps out of the pocket might make him think twice. He's been a bit injury prone this year.
TOTAL OFFENSE TOTAL DEFENSE
2. Oklahoma State...... 412.4 1. Oklahoma............ 233.0
8. Oklahoma............ 352.4 11.Oklahoma State...... 413.7
If OU started out the year even remotely playing D like they are now, they would be in the top 5 for total D. As it is, they are in the top 10. OSU's D sucks.
PASS EFFICIENCY PASS DEF EFFICIENCY
4. Oklahoma State...... 137.6 1. Oklahoma............ 90.8
6. Oklahoma............ 135.0 11.Oklahoma State...... 145.0
Another 300 yard game for PT?
FIRST DOWNS OPPONENT 1ST DOWNS
3. Oklahoma State...... 155 1. Oklahoma............ 92
11.Oklahoma............ 126 7. Oklahoma State...... 153
SACKS SACKS AGAINST
5. Oklahoma State...... 19 1. Oklahoma............ 8
7. Oklahoma............ 14 2. Oklahoma State...... 11
OSU is second in sacks against. I think this is due to Reid’s legs. OU moved up to 7th with a sack total of 14. 7 of those were in the last game, which I hope is a sign of things to come. Up to that point, Baylor had only given up 11 sacks in 7 Big XII games.
PENALTIES OPPONENT PENALTIES
4. Oklahoma............ 36 7. Oklahoma............ 34
10.Oklahoma State...... 42 11.Oklahoma State...... 28
RED ZONE OFFENSE RED ZONE DEFENSE
2. Oklahoma............ 95.2 1. Oklahoma............ 71.4
6. Oklahoma State...... 87.0 11.Oklahoma State...... 89.7
OU was 100% until this past week.
3RD-DN CONVERSIONS OPP 3RD-DN CONVERT
3. Oklahoma State...... 45.7 2. Oklahoma............ 29.2
4. Oklahoma............ 43.5 4. Oklahoma State...... 33.7
This is a strange stat as well with as bad as OSU’s D is, they are towards the top in opponents’ 3rd conversions
TIME OF POSSESSION
3. Oklahoma............ 32:25
7. Oklahoma State...... 29:27
TURNOVER MARGIN
5. Oklahoma State...... 0.29
11.Oklahoma............ -1.00
Total TO margin, OU is 105th in the nation. They don’t list for just fumbles but I would have to think we are last in the NCAA for fumbles lost, ugh.
PUNT RETURN AVG
7. Oklahoma State...... 8.0
11.Oklahoma............ 3.3
This stat still perplexes me with Reggie Smith. More so with the fumbles and bobbles this past week.
Will AD be back? I think so and as some have mentioned, I hope the team chemistry is not messed up and I don’t think it would be. AD is the best player on the field. The other guys have matured and are playing better. I think this only helps AD and could see him becoming OU’s all-time rushing leader this week, if he plays.
Can OU stop the TO’s? Can they stop having key penalties that only show up as 10-15 yarders on the stat sheet, but are 30-35 yarders on the field? If so, OU wins comfortably.
For me, the key to this game (outside of TO’s) is OU being able to contain Reid when he leaves the pocket.
Another thing to think about is the Dr. Jeckyll/Mr. Hyde OSU team. Will the team that got beat by KSU and TT show up on Saturday. I don’t think so. If you look at the games they struggled to win (or lost), they were all on the road outside of the aTm game, which came down to a missed EP. I think the team that lit up Nebraska in Stoolwater will be the team we see on Saturday. It’s going to be a hard-hitting, emotional game and I hope no one gets hurt.
OU will win again for the 4th straight time in this series, something OSU has never done (heck, they've never won 3 straight).
OU - 34
OSU - 13
OU 38 - 0 Baylor (dang TO's, I thought this was the week for a shut-out)
OU 38 - 17 TT
OU 24 - 17 aTm
OU 31 - 17 MO
If we could have limited some of the TO's, they would have been even closer.
Anyway, OU still has a shot at the Big XII CG, but they need to take care of those sometimes pesky pokes.
SCORING OFFENSE SCORING DEFENSE
2. Oklahoma State...... 34.7 1. Oklahoma............ 14.3
6. Oklahoma............ 25.9 10.Oklahoma State...... 30.9
PASS OFFENSE PASS DEFENSE
10.Oklahoma State...... 188.7 1. Oklahoma............ 154.4
11.Oklahoma............ 166.0 9. Oklahoma State...... 251.1
RUSHING OFFENSE RUSHING DEFENSE
1. Oklahoma State...... 223.7 2. Oklahoma............ 78.6
5. Oklahoma............ 186.4 9. Oklahoma State...... 162.6
OSU rushing carries YPC
Dantrell Savage 91 7.2
Mike Hamilton 97 5.6
Keith Toston 91 5.9
Bobby Reid 99 4.5
OSU is leading the Big XII in rushing. Their YPC is impressive and they run out of the spread, which we’ve seen before. Because of the way the OU D has been playing, their rushing game does not concern me outside of Reid. He has more carries than anyone on their team. Just like when I said before the aTm game with McGee, OU must contain Reid when the play breaks down. I cursed the first couple of times McGee took off for first downs in the first half of the aTm game and will prolly do so again on Saturday. OU can’t let them convert 3rd downs with Reid’s legs. I would like to see Rufus personally assigned to shadow Reid all game long and hopefully he won’t over-run too many tackles. A couple of slobberknockers when he steps out of the pocket might make him think twice. He's been a bit injury prone this year.
TOTAL OFFENSE TOTAL DEFENSE
2. Oklahoma State...... 412.4 1. Oklahoma............ 233.0
8. Oklahoma............ 352.4 11.Oklahoma State...... 413.7
If OU started out the year even remotely playing D like they are now, they would be in the top 5 for total D. As it is, they are in the top 10. OSU's D sucks.
PASS EFFICIENCY PASS DEF EFFICIENCY
4. Oklahoma State...... 137.6 1. Oklahoma............ 90.8
6. Oklahoma............ 135.0 11.Oklahoma State...... 145.0
Another 300 yard game for PT?
FIRST DOWNS OPPONENT 1ST DOWNS
3. Oklahoma State...... 155 1. Oklahoma............ 92
11.Oklahoma............ 126 7. Oklahoma State...... 153
SACKS SACKS AGAINST
5. Oklahoma State...... 19 1. Oklahoma............ 8
7. Oklahoma............ 14 2. Oklahoma State...... 11
OSU is second in sacks against. I think this is due to Reid’s legs. OU moved up to 7th with a sack total of 14. 7 of those were in the last game, which I hope is a sign of things to come. Up to that point, Baylor had only given up 11 sacks in 7 Big XII games.
PENALTIES OPPONENT PENALTIES
4. Oklahoma............ 36 7. Oklahoma............ 34
10.Oklahoma State...... 42 11.Oklahoma State...... 28
RED ZONE OFFENSE RED ZONE DEFENSE
2. Oklahoma............ 95.2 1. Oklahoma............ 71.4
6. Oklahoma State...... 87.0 11.Oklahoma State...... 89.7
OU was 100% until this past week.
3RD-DN CONVERSIONS OPP 3RD-DN CONVERT
3. Oklahoma State...... 45.7 2. Oklahoma............ 29.2
4. Oklahoma............ 43.5 4. Oklahoma State...... 33.7
This is a strange stat as well with as bad as OSU’s D is, they are towards the top in opponents’ 3rd conversions
TIME OF POSSESSION
3. Oklahoma............ 32:25
7. Oklahoma State...... 29:27
TURNOVER MARGIN
5. Oklahoma State...... 0.29
11.Oklahoma............ -1.00
Total TO margin, OU is 105th in the nation. They don’t list for just fumbles but I would have to think we are last in the NCAA for fumbles lost, ugh.
PUNT RETURN AVG
7. Oklahoma State...... 8.0
11.Oklahoma............ 3.3
This stat still perplexes me with Reggie Smith. More so with the fumbles and bobbles this past week.
Will AD be back? I think so and as some have mentioned, I hope the team chemistry is not messed up and I don’t think it would be. AD is the best player on the field. The other guys have matured and are playing better. I think this only helps AD and could see him becoming OU’s all-time rushing leader this week, if he plays.
Can OU stop the TO’s? Can they stop having key penalties that only show up as 10-15 yarders on the stat sheet, but are 30-35 yarders on the field? If so, OU wins comfortably.
For me, the key to this game (outside of TO’s) is OU being able to contain Reid when he leaves the pocket.
Another thing to think about is the Dr. Jeckyll/Mr. Hyde OSU team. Will the team that got beat by KSU and TT show up on Saturday. I don’t think so. If you look at the games they struggled to win (or lost), they were all on the road outside of the aTm game, which came down to a missed EP. I think the team that lit up Nebraska in Stoolwater will be the team we see on Saturday. It’s going to be a hard-hitting, emotional game and I hope no one gets hurt.
OU will win again for the 4th straight time in this series, something OSU has never done (heck, they've never won 3 straight).
OU - 34
OSU - 13