OU and a BCS at large bid

[rhombic21]

Can somebody break down exactly who we need to lose to who in order for us to get a BCS at large bid? Obviously we need to win out, and if the Horns lose to aTm then it becomes a moot point (because we'd play in the Big 12 Title game for the auto bid). But assuming that both us and UT win out, what would need to happen for us to go to a BCS game as an at large team? Seems like we're pretty far back there at #16 in the polls and #17 in the BCS, and most teams only have one or two games left.

[The Maestro]

We have to move up five spots in the BCS to number 12.

We need some help and yes, we have to beat Baylor and osu, but it's possible. Sure would have helped if Boise State would have fallen to SJSU Saturday night. They are a joke of a BCS team.

[MarylandSooner]

Well, this is what we need to happen this weekend:

Pittsburgh over West Virginia

Alabama over Auburn

Virginia Tech over Wake Forest

USC over California

This will help us get to a BCS game in the short term.

[rhombic21]

I know that we have to get to #12 to qualify, but if memory serves, you generally have to be ranked higher than that to get an at large bid, unless you are Notre Dame.

[Landthief 1972]

I know that we have to get to #12 to qualify, but if memory serves, you generally have to be ranked higher than that to get an at large bid, unless you are Notre Dame.

A team ranked 12 or higher should get a bid thanks to the extra BCS bowl they put in.

Unless A&M pulls their heads out of their asses and ask the ghost of Bear Bryant to coach against Texas, I doubt we need to worry about a BCS bowl game.

[Crucifax Autumn]

I think we'll be 12 or higher AND get into the Conference Championship.

[OrlandoSooner]

I believe that it was 12 or higher last year, but it is 14 this year b/c of the extra bowl.

[Boomer.....]

I believe that it was 12 or higher last year, but it is 14 this year b/c of the extra bowl.
Correct. I just heard that we only have to get up to #14, which sould be done if we win out. A BCS bowl would most likely pick us over some of the other mid majors.

[Crucifax Autumn]

You'd certainly think so, but this is 2006 and who really knows? We'll be about 10-12 though and get in...that and we'll be the Big 12 champs, so...

[Fraggle145]

Here are the rules from the BCS website.

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility


BCS Selection Policies and Procedures

18 days ago
Bowl Championship Series Selection Policies and Procedures, 2007-2010 Games:

Automatic Qualification

1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.

2. The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls after the 2006 and 2007 regular seasons.

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be in the pool of teams eligible for selection by the bowls as at-large teams.

4. Notre Dame will have an automatic berth if it is in the top eight of the final BCS Standings.

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

At-Large Teams

If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. At at-large team is any Division I-A team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.
Note: in order to participate in a BCS Bowl game, a team (i) must be eligible for post-season play under the rules of the NCAA and, if it not an independent, under the rules of its Conference and (ii) must not have imposed sanctions upon itself prohibiting participation in a post-season game for infractions of the rules of the NCAA or the rules of its Conference.

Team-Selection Procedures

The bowls will select their participants from two pools: (1) automatic qualifiers, all of which must be selected, and, (2) at-large teams, if fewer than 10 teams qualify automatically. The following sequence will be used when establishing pairings:

1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings will be placed in the National Championship Game ("NCG").

2. Unless they qualify to play in the NCG, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to host selected games:

Atlantic Coast Conference-Orange Bowl
Big Ten Conference-Rose Bowl
Big 12 Conference-Fiesta Bowl
Pac-10 Conference-Rose Bowl
Southeastern Conference-Sugar Bowl

3. If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick. If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.

A bowl choosing a replacement team may not select any of the following:

A. A team in the NCG;
B. The host team for another BCS Bowl;
C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same Conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.

4. Any bowl with an unfilled slot shall select a team from the automatic qualifiers and/or at-large teams in the following order:

A. The bowl played on the date nearest to the National Championship Game in will pick first-in 2007, Sugar Bowl January 3;
B. The bowl played on the date second-nearest to the National Championship Game will pick second-in 2007, Orange Bowl January 2;
C. The bowl hosting the game that is played in the time slot immediately after the Rose Bowl game will pick third-in 2007, Fiesta Bowl.

The rotation noted in paragraphs A, B and C will be as follows:
January 2007 games: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta
January 2008 games: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar
January 2009 games: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
January 2010 games: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar

All teams earning automatic berths must be selected. No more than two teams from any single Conference may play in BCS games in a single year, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large picks.

5. After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the Conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings taking into consideration the following:

A. whether the same team will be playing in the same bowl game for two consecutive years;
B. whether two teams that played against one another in the regular season will be paired against one another in a bowl game;
C. whether the same two teams will play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years; and
D. whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.

Conference Automatic Qualification in Future

Mathematical standards of performance will be applied to determine the number of conferences whose champions will automatically qualify for a BCS game after the 2008 and 2009 regular seasons. The champions of no fewer than five conferences and no more than seven conferences will have annual automatic berths in the BCS bowl games.

The standards will be based on results from the 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 regular seasons, using institutions that are members of the conferences during the 2007 season.

The data will include the following for each conference (1) the ranking of the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings each year, (2) the final regular-season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year and (3) the number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings each year.

Conference agreements with bowls will continue. The Pac-10 and Big Ten champions will host the Rose Bowl if their teams are not in the BCS national championship game. Likewise, the Southeastern Conference champion will host the Sugar Bowl, ACC champion will host the Orange Bowl and Big 12 champion will host the Fiesta Bowl.

[Fraggle145]

The best shot for us to get in guaranteed is for Boise St. to lose one of its last two... especially with Ian Johnson (the leading scorer in the country, their RB, got a collapsed lung at SJSU).

I would like to see LSU beat Ark and then see Ark beat UF. Making it so that they are not as attractive for an at large. Auburn losing wouldnt hurt, Wake losing wouldnt hurt. USC losing to Cal and then Beating ND wouldnt hurt.

[TopDawg]

Here's how we make it into the Top 11 (from another thread). If we make it into the BCS Top 11, and there are 10 BCS slots (including the national title game), we should be a shoe-in.

We're 17 right now, leaving us with 7 teams to "pass" to get into the Top 10.

Wisconsin can't go to a BCS Bowl (unless Michgan or Ohio State doesn't).
6

If Rutgers loses to WVU, the pollsters are likely to drop them fairly considerably after that. Probably enough to get them below us.
5

Only two of the following will get in: Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Auburn. That takes two out from in front of us.
3

If Wake loses to Virginia Tech or Maryland, and Cal loses to USC, they'll both move below us.
1

That leaves us one short from almost automatically making it to a BCS bowl. After that, it's likely between us and a Big East team. I bet we get the nod.

[MiccoMacey]

Well, this is what we need to happen this weekend:

Pittsburgh over West Virginia

Alabama over Auburn

Virginia Tech over Wake Forest

USC over California

Snow over Hell



This will help us get to a BCS game in the short term. :D

Or A&M over Texas. We're in the CCG, beat Nebraska, and we go to a BCS bowl.

[MiccoMacey]

Here's how we make it into the Top 11 (from another thread). If we make it into the BCS Top 11, and there are 10 BCS slots (including the national title game), we should be a shoe-in.

You're assuming all the other conference qualifiers are already inside the BCS top 12.

Say, for example the ACC. Is the winner of the CCG of the ACC for sure going to be inside the top 12? I only bring that up because Florida State last year won it with a 7-5 record.

But I like the math the way you do it. :)

[Crucifax Autumn]

If a team witha crappy record gets in and we don't I'm gonna personally travel the nation throwing up on BCS and NCAA officials until the first game of next season.

[TopDawg]

You're assuming all the other conference qualifiers are already inside the BCS top 12.

Say, for example the ACC. Is the winner of the CCG of the ACC for sure going to be inside the top 12? I only bring that up because Florida State last year won it with a 7-5 record.

But I like the math the way you do it. :)

Well in the case of the ACC, I bet we pass the team who losses the CCG.

[birddog]

i think i'm tired of this bcs crap.

20 years from now people will be giving us crazy looks when we try to explain what it is we are dealing with right now.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Pro fans already look at me like I'm crazy...They don't even understand the reasoning behind the voter polls, much less the convoluted BCS rankings.

Though, in all honesty, I've always been offended at the idiots on tv trying to explain a rather simple, but flawed, system to all us "dumb fans".

[rhombic21]

If Wake loses to Virginia Tech or Maryland, and Cal loses to USC, they'll both move below us.
1

That leaves us one short from almost automatically making it to a BCS bowl. After that, it's likely between us and a Big East team. I bet we get the nod.
I was with you until here.

Wake doesn't really matter. They'll either win the CCG and take the ACC's auto bid or they'll lose to GT and fall below us. The ACC is only going to get one BCS bid either way. I guess it would help us though if they lose a game before they played GT, and then won, just so we'd be a spot higher, but I don't think that would gain us any real ground because the ACC champion will almost assuredly be ranked outside the top 10. So I guess that means that we need to be #8 to be guaranteed of being one of the highest at large bids, unless Boise loses.

Also, I would think that we'd want Rutgers to beat WVU. If WVU beats Rutgers, there's a chance that they both stay above us. If Rutgers beats WVU, then they'll definitely fall below us.

I would think that we'd want Arkansas to beat LSU, and lose to UF. That way the SEC would potentially only have one BCS team. If LSU beats Arkansas, then they'll probably get in as an at large ahead of us. I would think that we'd have a better chance to jump a 2 loss Arkansas team than we would a 2 loss UF team, since UF is higher in the polls right now. Regardless, we want LSU to lose because it'll be easier to jump a team that just lost in the CCG than it will be to jump an LSU team that won it's final regular season game.

I guess if USC beats Cal then we root for them against ND, in hopes that ND falls below us (unlikely), since USC would already have the BCS bid from the PAC 10. If Cal beats USC, then I guess we want ND to beat USC to make sure that Cal gets the only Pac 10 BCS bid.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Let's not forget a key factor in maximizing all these fantasy scenarios: The winners in all these games need to SLAUGHTER the losers. Not that that's a requirement for us to move up, but I'd think that a severe asskicking would drop the losers much more since voters only look at final scores and computers only really look at raw stats.

[oKOIhoma fan]

I still feel that if we win out and Texas does too, that the mercy from the polsters will come out and we get to where we need to know. No one will say much in the media because the world will know that is where we SHOULD be. Then we go to a BCS game and PROVE it to all those sitting at home p*ssed at us.

[oumartin]

For you BCS gurus. instead of having two loses what if there was only one loss computed for OU and their average ranking was that of a one loss team. say 9-12. where do you think they would rank in the BCS right now. I am guessing about 5 or 6

[TopDawg]

I was with you until here.

Wake doesn't really matter. They'll either win the CCG and take the ACC's auto bid or they'll lose to GT and fall below us. The ACC is only going to get one BCS bid either way. I guess it would help us though if they lose a game before they played GT, and then won, just so we'd be a spot higher, but I don't think that would gain us any real ground because the ACC champion will almost assuredly be ranked outside the top 10. So I guess that means that we need to be #8 to be guaranteed of being one of the highest at large bids, unless Boise loses.

Also, I would think that we'd want Rutgers to beat WVU. If WVU beats Rutgers, there's a chance that they both stay above us. If Rutgers beats WVU, then they'll definitely fall below us.

I would think that we'd want Arkansas to beat LSU, and lose to UF. That way the SEC would potentially only have one BCS team. If LSU beats Arkansas, then they'll probably get in as an at large ahead of us. I would think that we'd have a better chance to jump a 2 loss Arkansas team than we would a 2 loss UF team, since UF is higher in the polls right now. Regardless, we want LSU to lose because it'll be easier to jump a team that just lost in the CCG than it will be to jump an LSU team that won it's final regular season game.

I guess if USC beats Cal then we root for them against ND, in hopes that ND falls below us (unlikely), since USC would already have the BCS bid from the PAC 10. If Cal beats USC, then I guess we want ND to beat USC to make sure that Cal gets the only Pac 10 BCS bid.

Good points. In the original thread where I wrote this, I was helping a horn (sometimes you have to work with them) understand Ivan Maisel's predictions and how he could have both us and Texas ending up in BCS bowls. Cleary Ivan (and his predicting partner) were predicting that West Virginia would upset Rutgers, because they had the Mountaineers in the BCS and not Rutgers. Further, they did not have Wake in there, but a different ACC team.

So there are definitely a few different scenarios that could get us a BCS spot, I was just picking the one that best suited the discussion in the thread it was originally posted in.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.



Actually it does matter what happens with Wake, unless Boise loses. If Boise is rated higher than WF or GT at the end then they are in.

[rhombic21]

Actually it does matter what happens with Wake, unless Boise loses. If Boise is rated higher than WF or GT at the end then they are in.
If Boise wins out, they will probably be ranked in the top 12 regardless.

[astro5169]

We still have to win 2 games.... Osu will be tough in stoolwater and Baylor is better than they used to be. Our running backs are depleted. Is Patrick back yet?

[proudsoonergal]

If a team witha crappy record gets in and we don't I'm gonna personally travel the nation throwing up on BCS and NCAA officials until the first game of next season.

Make sure you take pictures and post them on soonerfans. :D

[GreenSooner]

Mathematical standards of performance will be applied to determine the number of conferences whose champions will automatically qualify for a BCS game after the 2008 and 2009 regular seasons. The champions of no fewer than five conferences and no more than seven conferences will have annual automatic berths in the BCS bowl games.
Big East, you are on notice!

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/8370/sooneronnoticevb7.jpg

[AimForCenterMass]

Here's what some of the Boise State fans think.

http://mb14.scout.com/fboisestatefrm2.showMessage?topicID=3461.topic

http://mb14.scout.com/fboisestatefrm2.showMessage?topicID=3458.topic

They're actually serious in their arguments. No surprise, they tend to favor Oregon as well. Join in.

[The Maestro]

For you BCS gurus...

Well, you see...I was thinking that....

Yeah, I got nothing. Have a playoff already.

[AimForCenterMass]

BTW, if you visit the threads, you'll notice I have 63 posts on their message boards and only seven here. I used to post at another Sooner message board before it got shut down. I read the threads here quite often but I hardly ever post.

Originally from Oklahoma, the Air Force stationed me in Mtn. Home, ID. After moving there I developed a hatred for Boise State and every now and then I'd post on the BS message boards. They don't realize football exists outside of Boise so sometimes you have to make your case, hence the 63 posts over a few year span.

Although I've been reading here for quite sometime, I am a n00b and I will do my best to post insightful and intelligent material. You guys are fun to read. Keep it up. Boomer Sooner.

[AimForCenterMass]

Sorry, I double posted somehow.

[KingDavid]

Going to simplify this:

1) BCS has 10 spots
2) 8 of them are gone:
- 2 to Big 10
- 2 to SEC
- 4 to the other major conference champs
3) 2 left over for "at-large"

4) 1 will go to Notre Dame, unless they get THROTTLED (30+) by USC

5) Now only ONE (the loneliest number) left. Who gets this lonely little bid?

Answer, in order of likelihood:

1) Boise State if it wins out.
2) The Big East Runner-up, unless it's Rutgers or a two loss team.
3) Oklahoma, if it wins out.

I personally don't think Boise is going to lose. I hope I'm wrong. But if they do, the Big East is a real quagmire for us. We'll get by a one-loss Rutgers team . . . but not a one loss WV or Louisville, unfortunately. We need both of those team to drop another game. It could happen. I hope it does. But it isn't likely.

It's a lot easier to just start cheering for the Aggies.

I can't believe I just said that. I'm going to go vomit now.

[MiccoMacey]

Going to simplify this:

1) BCS has 10 spots
2) 8 of them are gone:
- 2 to Big 10
- 2 to SEC
- 4 to the other major conference champs
3) 2 left over for "at-large"

4) 1 will go to Notre Dame, unless they get THROTTLED (30+) by USC

5) Now only ONE (the loneliest number) left. Who gets this lonely little bid?

Answer, in order of likelihood:

1) Boise State if it wins out.
2) The Big East Runner-up, unless it's Rutgers or a two loss team.
3) Oklahoma, if it wins out.

I personally don't think Boise is going to lose. I hope I'm wrong. But if they do, the Big East is a real quagmire for us. We'll get by a one-loss Rutgers team . . . but not a one loss WV or Louisville, unfortunately. We need both of those team to drop another game. It could happen. I hope it does. But it isn't likely.

It's a lot easier to just start cheering for the Aggies.

I can't believe I just said that. I'm going to go vomit now.

Boise State won't get it as the ACC champ WILL be ranked higher than them. They won't get the auto bid they were hoping for, and I think most people will realize that they played absolutely zero competition and the BCS format will show that.

I also doubt Rutgers gets it if they have one loss to WVU.

[KingDavid]

Boise State won't get it as the ACC champ WILL be ranked higher than them. They won't get the auto bid they were hoping for, and I think most people will realize that they played absolutely zero competition and the BCS format will show that.

I also doubt Rutgers gets it if they have one loss to WVU.

. . . I cannot respond to this unless you reassure me that you actually read my post.

[MiccoMacey]

I promise I'm reading your post.

But I didn't see where you said BSU has little to no chance. Actually, you listed them as #1. I think we will jump them in the BCS as long as we win out.

As for the Big East, I forgot about Louisville. I admit it. Not sure how they are going to affect us.

[TopDawg]

Boise State won't get it as the ACC champ WILL be ranked higher than them. They won't get the auto bid they were hoping for, and I think most people will realize that they played absolutely zero competition and the BCS format will show that.

I also doubt Rutgers gets it if they have one loss to WVU.

Georgia Tech is currently 18 and Wake and Maryland are 16 and 19, respectively. Boise State is 12. None of those teams play a team ranked higher than Boise State, and only one of them will make it through unscathed. It doesn't seem like a foregone conclusion that the ACC Champ will pass Boise. It's certainly possible, since Wake and Maryland's schedule strength will help them with the computers, but there's a pretty good chance they won't make it.

[KingDavid]

I promise I'm reading your post.

But I didn't see where you said BSU has little to no chance. Actually, you listed them as #1. I think we will jump them in the BCS as long as we win out.

As for the Big East, I forgot about Louisville. I admit it. Not sure how they are going to affect us.

It doesn't matter if we are ahead of Boise. If Boise is in the top 12 in the final standings, then we can kiss goodbye to the at-large bid. It's somewhat wishful thinking to say that if Boise wins out, that they will somehow FALL back in the BCS, while at the same time we advance 5 spaces. If all those losses are happening to help us advance, Boise will not be frozen on an island as an undefeated team. I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying its true. The last at-large bid is Boise's to lose.

That being said, I could see the pollsters . . . maybe . . . keeping them out IF they only squeak by in the final games.

But even if that happens . . . the Big East situation requires so many cards to fall in the right place for us to get the final bid . . . that we might as well just hold up our thumbs and start practicing gig 'em cheers because that's going to be our best bet to get into the BCS.

Trust me, I wrote the definitive post on this subject matter over three weeks ago before ANYONE thought a BCS bid was possible. I've racked my brain upside down and sideways to try to figure it out. It could happen. I could all go just right. If Rutgers would have saved that upset for West Virginia, we'd be sitting pretty. But they really, really phucked us with that upset of Louisville. Who knows, though? The those teams still have some tough games ahead. We'll see. The cards certainly have fallen perfectly for us in the Pac 10.

OUtside of the Texas collapse, I think we probably have a better chance of hoping that USC bits the SHAT out of Notre Dame. Then we might have a chance of snagging their at-large bid.

We'll see . . .

[AimForCenterMass]

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i300/aimforcentermass/1152785029_l.jpg

Just a test to see if I can upload a photo. Sorry to waste a post. Enjoy the photo.

[rhombic21]

Boise State won't get it as the ACC champ WILL be ranked higher than them. They won't get the auto bid they were hoping for, and I think most people will realize that they played absolutely zero competition and the BCS format will show that.

I also doubt Rutgers gets it if they have one loss to WVU.
It doesn't matter man. If Boise is in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, then they are automatically in. Based on the games remaining to be played, they will almost certainly do that if they win out.

[rhombic21]

I think we would have a better chance to jump UL than West VA. West VA has that shiny offense that everybody wants to see. Plus they went to a BCS game last year, which gives them name recognition. And they have a better fan base than either of the other two teams. UL lost a lot of their shine when they went down to Rutgers. If Rutgers beats WVA, then that knocks West VA out of the BCS and puts it between us and UL for the at large, assuming that UL wins out. I think that we would be a much more attractive team for a BCS bowl to pick, and if we were close to UL in the rankings, would probably get the nod. The worst thing that could happen for us is for Rutgers to lose to WVA, because then we might get into a scenario where we have 3 Big East teams ranked above us.

The main thing is that we really need for either Boise to lose, which could happen against Nevada because they'll likely be playing without their starting tailback, Ian Johnson, who had a collapsed lung after their narrow win over SJSU, or we need for ND to get DEMOLISHED by USC. It wouldn't hurt if USC could then turn around and lose to UCLA in the season finale, but that probably will not happen.

There is a chance that the SEC would only get one team in. First, Arkansas HAS to beat LSU. If LSU wins that game, they're in as an at large. Second, there's always the chance that UF could get upset against FSU in their season finale. In the absence of that, there's a slim chance that the loser of the SEC title game would get knocked out of the BCS altogether if the score was lopsided one way or the other, since both teams already have one loss.

[swardboy]

nm

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

It doesn't matter if we are ahead of Boise. If Boise is in the top 12 in the final standings, then we can kiss goodbye to the at-large bid. It's somewhat wishful thinking to say that if Boise wins out, that they will somehow FALL back in the BCS, while at the same time we advance 5 spaces. If all those losses are happening to help us advance, Boise will not be frozen on an island as an undefeated team. I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying its true. The last at-large bid is Boise's to lose.

That being said, I could see the pollsters . . . maybe . . . keeping them out IF they only squeak by in the final games.

But even if that happens . . . the Big East situation requires so many cards to fall in the right place for us to get the final bid . . . that we might as well just hold up our thumbs and start practicing gig 'em cheers because that's going to be our best bet to get into the BCS.

Trust me, I wrote the definitive post on this subject matter over three weeks ago before ANYONE thought a BCS bid was possible. I've racked my brain upside down and sideways to try to figure it out. It could happen. I could all go just right. If Rutgers would have saved that upset for West Virginia, we'd be sitting pretty. But they really, really phucked us with that upset of Louisville. Who knows, though? The those teams still have some tough games ahead. We'll see. The cards certainly have fallen perfectly for us in the Pac 10.

OUtside of the Texas collapse, I think we probably have a better chance of hoping that USC bits the SHAT out of Notre Dame. Then we might have a chance of snagging their at-large bid.

We'll see . . .

I think our best chance is still with Aggie knocking off the Whorns.

Wake Forest could jump Boise however if they win out because that would mean being a 1-loss team finishing with wins over VT, Maryland and GT. All top 25 teams. The Coaches and the Harris poll have WF one spot behind Boise at 14, it is the computers that have WF at 17 and Boise at 10. The problem is Arky then beats LSU and Boise jumps them anyway. If LSU beat Arky, Arky would still go to the SEC title game but the loser would probably be ranked below LSU but ahead of Boise.

[Texas Golfer]

I suggest we beat Baylor, OSU, and Nebraska while A&M beats UT. Then I'll worry about the BCS.

[VolinArizona]

I highly doubt you guys will get in.

Ohio State
Michigan
Big East (Rutgers/WVU/Lou)
SEC (Ark/Florida)
ACC (GT/Wake)
PAC 10 (Cal/ USC)
Big 12 (Texas, Nebish, OU)
Boise
LSU/2nd Place Big East
Notre Dame

It will be tough. I think specifically we see:

Ohio State
Michigan
West Virginia
Florida
Texas
Georgia Tech
USC
LSU/Arkansas
Boise
Notre Dame