what is a realistic expectation for our men's basketball team

[usmc-sooner]

If they struggle with Norfolk state I'll have a hard time expecting them to make .500.

I used to live in Norfolk and Norfolk State is a poor man's version of Langston.

[Ash]

I hope that most Sooner fans understand that this team is kind of like starting from scratch.

We've got some good players from last year, but also a lot of young players trying to get acclimated to big time D-1 BBall.

We've got a new coach, with a new system.

This season is going to be full of ups and downs - games where the Sooners perform really well and those where they struggle.

That's just the nature of the beast considering where the program is at this point. I'm optimistic about the future but putting high expectations on this team is, IMHO, just setting them up for failure.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I've rarely seen a situation like this in college Bball where it doesn't take a couple years to get back on track.

I know this isn't what many fans want to hear, but it's my honest opinion.

:pop:

[Frozen Sooner]

15 wins. I will be happy with 15 wins.

This team is young AND thin. We have basically no depth and lost our top two offensive options.

At point guard, we have Austin Johnson (whose play I believe will pleasantly surprise people this year) and a true freshman.

The guy who is supposed to be our top scoring threat is someone who's most comfortable coming off screens.

Our #1 post has struggled his entire career with foul problems. We don't really have anyone with true post skills behind him.

The other guy who has the real size to play post has more SF skills. The guy who has the mentality to play post has swingman size.

Please do not take this as hating on the current OU players. They have my support 100%, and I will be just as upset every time this team loses as every time the 2003 team lost and just as happy every time they win.

But as an honest assessment, most of the guys we're counting on for serious minutes this year have big holes in their games. Many of them are simply young and are going to learn and close those holes up. Moose, for example, I expect to develop in a huge way. He's good now, but I think he has potential to be great. I think AJ has the potential to be an excellent point guard. Stuff like that. It's just going to be an up-and-down year this year.

[crawfish]

This year, we should ask for a) improvement over the course of the year, b) the emergence of some player(s) to build the team around, and c) establishment of a team identity. Any postseason play, even NIT, is gravy.

[poke4christ]

I agree with you guys. Unfortunately, the trend with this team is probably a loosing season. However, that is far from the rule. An NIT birth would be awesome for them. Anything over 15 wins would be great.

What would be good signs for the future? IMHO, teams looking to break through in the future show inconsistency. They may beat a top 15 team at home and then get blown out by Colorado on the road. There will be plenty of freshman mistakes, but if this team can hang close in some games despite that, it bodes well for the future.

I know that only winning by 5 in an exhibition can be scary, but don't give up hope. The main thing this team is going to need this season is support. Don't let LNA be deserted. If you are a student, encourage your friends to go. Had to buy B-ball tickets to get your good football tickets, use 'em. Let this team and coaching staff know that you are going to help them ride through this tough time. This will make the good time all that much sweeter.

Finally, try not to get to wrapped up in loses. Last year OSU lost 8 games by 3 points or less, and many of those were because of bad calls or VERY lucky shots (3 point bank at the buzzer :mad:). Don't let it affect you too much, and enjoy that big win when it comes. Celebrate the good and let the bad roll of your back.

Good Luck guys. I wish all the best (except against OSU of course :D)

Zach

[OU James]

15 wins would be a solid year....If we get 15 wins this year with a fun team to watch with promise for the future, I'll be happy....It'll be more fun than watching a 20 win team that hates each other and their coach with no hope, that'll lose in the first round of the tourney...

[Boomer.....]

I just hope for any kind of post season action. We have to keep that streak alive.

[OUstud]

Looking at our schedule and excluding the Maui Invitational (because we're not sure who our opponents will be), we should start 7-3, with wins over Norfolk State, Liberty, TCU, Coppin State, UT Arlington, Tulsa, and SMU. I think that, plus maybe getting a win over GT/Purdue in our second game in Hawaii would get us rolling into Tuscaloosa New Years Day with some momentum. Once we get into conference play, though, it's really hard to tell what's going to happen, with all the new coaches and somewhat level field from the top 3 or 4 teams down.

[OU James]

Yeah, I think we'll have a dangerous team that can make some upsets happen, but one that also has the capablity to lose to East Donkey Balls St. in the beginning, there's really no telling.

[Frozen Sooner]

Bobby Maze is out for a few weeks with a broken foot now.

[usmc-sooner]

I'm thinking 12-13 wins

hey froz is Maze really good?

[Ruuuuuufus]

I'm hoping for 8-8 in Big 12 play

[crawfish]

I'm thinking 12-13 wins

hey froz is Maze really good?

Maze is quick as lightning and cocky as hell, but he has some work to do to a contributor for us this year. Getting hurt may mess that up entirely. :(

[Frozen Sooner]

I'm thinking 12-13 wins

hey froz is Maze really good?

I don't know about "really good," but he's got potential and he could've provided some minutes spelling AJ.

I hope AJ did a LOT of offseason conditioning work.

[King Crimson]

NIT home game would be a reasonable goal IMO.

i'd put the over/under at about 15.5 wins. but, i like the "upside" with Capel for the future.

[the_ouskull]

I think that, based on the schedule and the talent and coaching, I say that we're looking at a 19 - 10 season.

Negatives:

1 - The point guard. I feel like this and center are our weakest positions. But, the point guard is so important in college basketball, and we don't have a proven one on the roster.
2 - Center. We are a doughnut. (No center.) The guy hasn't even averaged 2 rebounds per game in the time he's gotten so far. He's probably good for 5 a night. We NEED him to get 10 per.

Positives:

1 - Nate Carter. I think that he's really gonna bust out this year. I'm not just saying that because I know him. I'm saying it because in Duke-style offense, he's going to get to play to his strengths.
2 - A new energy at home games. The crowd was always excited, the offensive lulls killed our crowd. But this team, being a young one, scoring a lot more baskets, and, because of that, will be playing a lot of close games. The crowd could make the difference at home. If this team plays well at home, it will be a good team.

Overall, I think that we're going to be well-coached, as always, but a lot looser. I'm not saying that I think that Coach Capel is better than Kelvin. I'm just saying that he's got a different style, and I think it will fit in well with our players. Offensively, we're gonna be putting it up and mixing it up from underneath. If anybody can get an inside / outside thing going... (Griffin or Moose with Neal.) ...then I think we're going to be able to get our athletes attacking the basket on offense. Defensively, I think we're going to be trying to create a lot more turnovers. We have a lot of bigs, and they're going to be able to protect the basket more. I think that our guards will be playing a lot of passing lanes, and that we're going to block a few more shots this year. Taj was pretty much our only shot blocker and he and Lefty killed the team last year. (Sorry... tangent.) A younger defense means more mistakes though, and that's gonna mean a lot of close games, or blowouts... Getting themselves disciplined on defense would be the best thing for them to accomplish during the post-exhibition season games... (i.e. - non conference) We've got two games, and then we play Memphis. On a neutral court, that game will show us what this team is made of.

I talk a lot. I'm sorry. I love basketball season.

the_ouskull

[King Crimson]

I love basketball season too. but, i think you are high:

memphis will put it on us like UCONN did in 03-04....and they aren't anywhere near as good as that UCONN team with Okafor and Gordan.

this OU team can't score enough to beat anyone good (outside a home W). we are gonna shoot 40% all year.

i'd take 17 wins right now and an NIT home game, no questions asked.

[royalfan5]

Just be glad you aren't Nebraska. We needed a buzzer beating three to beat UN-Kearney on Monday, and are down to 6 healthy scholarship players 4 of which are freshmen. Nebraska will likely only suit up 7 players for the opener against top 25 Creighton. Only one of those players has proven to be a legit D-1 starter. NU will be lucky to win 10 games this year. It could be a lot worse for you guys.

[Frozen Sooner]

Yep. I actually do wake up some mornings and think "It could be worse. I could be a Nebraska fan."

[poke4christ]

Yeah, I think we'll have a dangerous team that can make some upsets happen, but one that also has the capablity to lose to East Donkey Balls St. in the beginning, there's really no telling.

That may be the best sentence I've seen to explain what OU's season is going to be like.

ouskull, I admire you're optimism, but if OU wins 19 games this year (regular season) I'll post a picture of myself in a chicken outfit on the fark board.

Zach

[Mex]

I think I read somewhere that Tony Crocker was a taller version of Hollis, or something like that.

[crawfish]

I think I read somewhere that Tony Crocker was a taller version of Hollis, or something like that.

Crocker is exactly like Hollis except that he's taller, more athletic, a better slasher but a worse shooter. He also is a better ballhandler and more of a three than a two.

In other words, he's nothing like Hollis. :)

[soonervegas]

I agree that anything north of .500 will be a great starting point for Coach Capel, but I do not think that will happen.

I am excited though to start the season tonight with 4,499 if my fellow die hard Sooner B-Ball fans.

[Jeopardude]

I agree that anything north of .500 will be a great starting point for Coach Capel, but I do not think that will happen.

I am excited though to start the season tonight with 4,499 if my fellow die hard Sooner B-Ball fans.

I think we'll hover around .500. Won't be surprised if we go over; won't be too upset if we go one or two under.

My main concern tonight is what will replace Tony Marbell's Cantina's concession stand in the SW corner of LNC????

[SoonerInKCMO]

Well... we'll get at least one win.

[Blue]

38 and Owe.

[OUSKINS]

I don't think a major D1 program should ever set their expectations below a .500 season. I'm not saying it's a disaster if that winds up being the case, but while "rebuilding/retooling," is taking place, you still want to keep your head above water. I think the "goal" should be simple: a winning season.

If OU has a winning season, it basically guarantees an NIT bid, which is acceptable to me as long as it comes once in a blue moon in this type of situation. The NIT extends the season and gives the younger guys some credible experience going into next year.

If they can somehow figure out a way to sneak into the Big Dance, then you'd have to consider this year a raging success.

[King Crimson]

Yep. I actually do wake up some mornings and think "It could be worse. I could be a Nebraska fan."

yeah, well Barry Collier beat us twice last year. and none of those were in Lincoln.

[Frozen Sooner]

yeah, well Barry Collier beat us twice last year. and none of those were in Lincoln.

IT COULD BE WORSE, I COULD BE A NEBRASKA FAN!

:mad:

[King Crimson]

http://espn.starwave.com/media/ncf/2004/0419/photo/a_callahan_i.jpg

[Frozen Sooner]

See? Now you hear what I'm saying.

[King Crimson]

Cmon Froz, give Uncle Bill a kiss:

http://images.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/_photos/2004-02-03-inside-callahan.jpg

[Ash]

I don't think a major D1 program should ever set their expectations below a .500 season. I'm not saying it's a disaster if that winds up being the case, but while "rebuilding/retooling," is taking place, you still want to keep your head above water. I think the "goal" should be simple: a winning season.

If OU has a winning season, it basically guarantees an NIT bid, which is acceptable to me as long as it comes once in a blue moon in this type of situation. The NIT extends the season and gives the younger guys some credible experience going into next year.

If they can somehow figure out a way to sneak into the Big Dance, then you'd have to consider this year a raging success.

The programs goal should never be to go .500, the programs goal should be to win the B12 and go to the tourney. Realistic expectations from fans this year should be for an up and down season with quite a few losses from good competition.

I'm not sure some fans realize what it's like to compete at this level and what it takes to get to the Big Dance. There are going to be several Missouri Valley Conference teams this year better than OU, along with lots of others from other conferences. With impressive resumes that will get a nod before OU does for at an large. It's not like in football where if you win more than you lose and you're from conference "A" you get into a bowl.

Unless OU gets the automatic bid by winning the conference, they're going to need more than one "marquee" win - probably on the road and at least 18 wins to get an at large in the dance (depending, of course, on how the season goes for other teams). That means upsetting one or more team in the Maui, sweeping Texas (or aTm, if they live up to expectations) or maybe splitting with Texas beating Villanova and finishing higher than expected in the B12.

NIT for this team, at this time, would be a good accompishment and a great experience for the younger players. I hope I'm dead wrong about it. But hoping for OU to sneak into the NCAAs this year is just asking for the NCAA equivalent of blue balls.

[royalfan5]

yeah, well Barry Collier beat us twice last year. and none of those were in Lincoln.
I still don't understand how that happened.

[Frozen Sooner]

I still don't understand how that happened.

IT COULD BE WORSE, I COULD BE A NEBRASKA FAN!

http://www.komar.org/hulk/images/hulk-smiley.gif

[OUstud]

yeah, well Barry Collier beat us twice last year. and none of those were in Lincoln.

The first one was in Lincoln.

[stoopified]

I was hoping for 17-13 or 18-12 with the defectors staying and I'm proably too optimistic but I think thta mark IS STILL POSSIBLE.Winning 99-63 would have impressed me but 99-36?Man that is hard to do against air much less ateam returning 4 starters from a13-13 sguad.

[tommieharris91]

Personally, I think finishing fifth in the Big 12 this year puts you on the bubble, with sixth on the outside looking in. If OU can finish fifth this year (and I know that's a stretch), and then win their first Big 12 tournament game, it will be a good year.

[royalfan5]

Another good thing for y'all is that you aren't literally pulling people off the street to play in the games. NU played a guy in their loss to a DII school that that wasn't on the roster and they didn't have time to put a name on the jersey. He was playing crunch time minuets off the street. Just remember this the first time OU struggles, and you will feel better.