KingDavid
11/2/2006, 01:32 PM
This has been discussed in another thread, but I'm going to flesh this out further because I believe that many of us - especially the realists - probably think that there's no legitimate way, outside of the Whorns falling apart, that we'll get a BCS bid. What I hope you'll see after reading this post is that it's really a distinct possibility . . . and what's more, the implications for who we would play if we get to a BCS game are VERY exciting. Hint, hint: can you say, rematch?
Before I take this any further, let's state the obvious fact that we have to win out, no matter what. We all know that. And as I mentioned above, it's obvious that if Texas drops two of its last three games, then we're automatically into a BCS game, end of discussion.
But since it's not too likely that the Whorns are going to lose two out of three, and furthermore because it's just way too simple for a long-arse, mind-bending post like this one, let's just assume the whorns close the deal on the Big XII South.
So, with the assumptions laid down that we win 'em all, and Texas closes the deal, here's what needs to happen for us to get into a BCS game:
* None of the non-BCS schools can get a bid. This means that
-Boise St. has to lose (they have two road games left, against OK teams.)
-Notre Dame has to lose to USC (at least - maybe to Air Force, too)
* Before I leave the subject of the non-BCS school bids, let me just say that if this alone happens, our odds of getting a BCS bid go up exponentially. You'll see below why below, because I actually end up giving an at-large bid to Notre Dame . . . and even with that, it still can look very good for us if some other very realistic things hold up. Read on.
* The Big XII North Champion cannot win the Big XII Championship (lest we be phucked like Texass was phucked in 2003). We will not get the at-large bid over a two loss Texas team, for obvious reasons.
* The following three BCS conferences: the Pac 10, ACC, and Big East - cannot produce a runner-up with less than two losses, with only a couple of exceptions which I'll state below - USC being the biggest one.
* For the Pac 10, this means that either:
-USC wins out in the Pac 10
-Oregon wins out, or
-Cal wins out, BUT
-If Cal wins out, USC has to lose to someone else. More below on this.
* For the Big East, this means that:
-The loser of West Virginia vs. Louisville must lose again (more below).
-Rutgers needs to lose at least once
-Rutgers winning out represents another unlikely exception discussed below.
* For the ACC, it doesn't matter. They cannot produce a runner-up with less than two losses.
So . . . given all of those assumptions, none of which are unreasonable, that would leave the 10 BCS spaces as follows:
- Two to the Big Ten (the max) - Ohio State & Michigan
- Two to the SEC (the max) - Pick any two from that jumbled mess.
- One to the Pac 10 Champ - USC or Cal
- One to the ACC Champ - doesn't matter, probably Georgia Tech
- One to the Big East Champ - Louisville, W. Virginia, or - could it be? - Rutgers
- One to Big XII Champ - Texas
- And then Two magical "at-large" bids
So now we have two remaining invitations to the dance. Who gets 'em?
- Well, let's quit smoking dope and be realistic about Notre Dame. They are probably not going to lose more than one game. And they might even take care of business against USC. So let's give the Domers one of those bids. Even at two losses, they would most likely get selected over us.
BUT . . . that still leaves one "at-large" BCS bid out there. Who is left to get it? Well, here's where the two-team conference limit really helps us out in a HUGE way. It eliminates a ridiculous amount of teams standing between the Sooner Nation and a glorious BCS bid:
- There are five (that's right, F-I-V-E) SEC teams ahead of us in the BCS standings. Wave buh-bye to three of them. Sorry guys. Only two invites to this dance from your conference. Sucks to be you.
- And even if Wisconsin wins out against their remaining very win-able schedule . . .sorry Badgers. Only room for two from the Big Ten. See ya.
So that leaves ONE at-large bid to be given to the best "runner-up" candidate from the remaining four BCS Conferences: The Big XII, the Pac 10, the Big East, and the ACC. Remember, all of these teams (with the possible exception of a one-loss Rutgers) are going to have two losses. Let's start with the simplest and work to the more complicated:
* From the Big XII (need I say it?) the candidate would be the SOONERS!!!!
* From the ACC the best "runner-up" candidates would be either Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, or Virginia Tech. Again, all with two losses. And since all of them would be ranked behind us in the polls, no need to discuss these teams any more. Moving on . . .
* From the Pac 10, the best "runner-up" candidates would either Cal (most likely), USC (if Cal beast USC), or Oregon (not likely). If it's USC, that would be a problem, for reasons I'll explain below. Suffice it to say that if Cal beats USC, then we need USC to drop an additional game to either Notre Dame, Oregon, or UCLA on the road. A two-loss Oregon doesn't stand a chance against us in getting a bid. A two-loss Cal, for reasons I'll state below, probably doesn't either, for mostly the same reasons. (Plus for Cal, we all know that it's an annual tradition for Cal to get phucked by the BCS. So that takes care of them.)
- From the Big East, the best "runner-up" candidates would be either Louisville, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, or a possibly one loss Rutgers. Pittsburgh wouldn't matter because they'd be behind us in the polls. Now a very unlikely scenario might ensue if Rutgers upsets both West Virginia and Louisville. That could leave us contending with a one loss West Virginia or a one loss Louisville for that final "at-large" BCS bid. That would be interesting. We might indeed lose that war, as sickening as it would be. But even then, it would be pretty hard for a BCS bowl to extend the bid to any team that gets beaten by Rutgers . . . I don't care how good they appear to be this year. But Rutgers running the table, however fun it might be, probably is not going to happen. For now, the scenario to discuss is either a two-loss Louisville or a two-loss West Virginia. (And for those of you who doubt that either Louisville or West Virginia would drop another game, just check their schedules. For Louisville you'll find they have three games remaining (after W.V.) against teams with winning records. Two are on the road (Rutgers, Pittsburgh). And for West Virginia, you'll find that their four remaining conference games are against the only other teams in the Big East with winning records. One of them is at Pittsburgh.)
So now, in an attempt to simplify . . . here's the thing to realize in all of these scenarios: It looks as though it all comes down to a two-loss Oklahoma team against a two-loss team from any of those four (non SEC, non Big Ten) conferences.
And, in that event, we will have FOUR ARGUMENTS THAT NO OTHER TWO-LOSS TEAM (from amongst those contenders) COULD BRING TO THE TABLE to sway that final BCS Bowl to give us the last remaining invitation to the dance. Here they are:
1) The Oregon Robbery. Aside from one of the biggest debacles since "the fifth down" in Missouri, we are actually a one-loss team. If it gets down to this, the press will make a big deal out of this.
2) Adrian Peterson. We would be show-casing the final game of one of the best, most exciting college football players to ever run the football . . . in a feel-good come-back story for both himself, and the team.
3) The Sooner Nation would travel better than any of those other contenders, and have more national television appeal . . . especially if you throw in #4 . . .
4) Big-time Re-match. Guess who gets the last pick for at-large selections???? THE FIESTA BOWL, who will be looking for a sexy match-up for the other team they already have slotted for their bowl. And that team would be TEXAS, the Big XII champion. How about that, folks? Wouldn't that be a great send-off game for AD!?!? (Side-note: this "rematch" argument is the main reason why we don't want Cal to win the Pac 10 and leave us pitted against two-loss USC team for this final bid. The Fiesta Bowl would likely take a Nat'l Title rematch before they'd take the RRSO rematch.)
There you have it, folks. Start praying for the RRSO re-match in Tempe.
Now, I'm going to give my tired fingers . . . and your eyes . . . a much needed break.
BOOMER!!!!
Before I take this any further, let's state the obvious fact that we have to win out, no matter what. We all know that. And as I mentioned above, it's obvious that if Texas drops two of its last three games, then we're automatically into a BCS game, end of discussion.
But since it's not too likely that the Whorns are going to lose two out of three, and furthermore because it's just way too simple for a long-arse, mind-bending post like this one, let's just assume the whorns close the deal on the Big XII South.
So, with the assumptions laid down that we win 'em all, and Texas closes the deal, here's what needs to happen for us to get into a BCS game:
* None of the non-BCS schools can get a bid. This means that
-Boise St. has to lose (they have two road games left, against OK teams.)
-Notre Dame has to lose to USC (at least - maybe to Air Force, too)
* Before I leave the subject of the non-BCS school bids, let me just say that if this alone happens, our odds of getting a BCS bid go up exponentially. You'll see below why below, because I actually end up giving an at-large bid to Notre Dame . . . and even with that, it still can look very good for us if some other very realistic things hold up. Read on.
* The Big XII North Champion cannot win the Big XII Championship (lest we be phucked like Texass was phucked in 2003). We will not get the at-large bid over a two loss Texas team, for obvious reasons.
* The following three BCS conferences: the Pac 10, ACC, and Big East - cannot produce a runner-up with less than two losses, with only a couple of exceptions which I'll state below - USC being the biggest one.
* For the Pac 10, this means that either:
-USC wins out in the Pac 10
-Oregon wins out, or
-Cal wins out, BUT
-If Cal wins out, USC has to lose to someone else. More below on this.
* For the Big East, this means that:
-The loser of West Virginia vs. Louisville must lose again (more below).
-Rutgers needs to lose at least once
-Rutgers winning out represents another unlikely exception discussed below.
* For the ACC, it doesn't matter. They cannot produce a runner-up with less than two losses.
So . . . given all of those assumptions, none of which are unreasonable, that would leave the 10 BCS spaces as follows:
- Two to the Big Ten (the max) - Ohio State & Michigan
- Two to the SEC (the max) - Pick any two from that jumbled mess.
- One to the Pac 10 Champ - USC or Cal
- One to the ACC Champ - doesn't matter, probably Georgia Tech
- One to the Big East Champ - Louisville, W. Virginia, or - could it be? - Rutgers
- One to Big XII Champ - Texas
- And then Two magical "at-large" bids
So now we have two remaining invitations to the dance. Who gets 'em?
- Well, let's quit smoking dope and be realistic about Notre Dame. They are probably not going to lose more than one game. And they might even take care of business against USC. So let's give the Domers one of those bids. Even at two losses, they would most likely get selected over us.
BUT . . . that still leaves one "at-large" BCS bid out there. Who is left to get it? Well, here's where the two-team conference limit really helps us out in a HUGE way. It eliminates a ridiculous amount of teams standing between the Sooner Nation and a glorious BCS bid:
- There are five (that's right, F-I-V-E) SEC teams ahead of us in the BCS standings. Wave buh-bye to three of them. Sorry guys. Only two invites to this dance from your conference. Sucks to be you.
- And even if Wisconsin wins out against their remaining very win-able schedule . . .sorry Badgers. Only room for two from the Big Ten. See ya.
So that leaves ONE at-large bid to be given to the best "runner-up" candidate from the remaining four BCS Conferences: The Big XII, the Pac 10, the Big East, and the ACC. Remember, all of these teams (with the possible exception of a one-loss Rutgers) are going to have two losses. Let's start with the simplest and work to the more complicated:
* From the Big XII (need I say it?) the candidate would be the SOONERS!!!!
* From the ACC the best "runner-up" candidates would be either Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, or Virginia Tech. Again, all with two losses. And since all of them would be ranked behind us in the polls, no need to discuss these teams any more. Moving on . . .
* From the Pac 10, the best "runner-up" candidates would either Cal (most likely), USC (if Cal beast USC), or Oregon (not likely). If it's USC, that would be a problem, for reasons I'll explain below. Suffice it to say that if Cal beats USC, then we need USC to drop an additional game to either Notre Dame, Oregon, or UCLA on the road. A two-loss Oregon doesn't stand a chance against us in getting a bid. A two-loss Cal, for reasons I'll state below, probably doesn't either, for mostly the same reasons. (Plus for Cal, we all know that it's an annual tradition for Cal to get phucked by the BCS. So that takes care of them.)
- From the Big East, the best "runner-up" candidates would be either Louisville, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, or a possibly one loss Rutgers. Pittsburgh wouldn't matter because they'd be behind us in the polls. Now a very unlikely scenario might ensue if Rutgers upsets both West Virginia and Louisville. That could leave us contending with a one loss West Virginia or a one loss Louisville for that final "at-large" BCS bid. That would be interesting. We might indeed lose that war, as sickening as it would be. But even then, it would be pretty hard for a BCS bowl to extend the bid to any team that gets beaten by Rutgers . . . I don't care how good they appear to be this year. But Rutgers running the table, however fun it might be, probably is not going to happen. For now, the scenario to discuss is either a two-loss Louisville or a two-loss West Virginia. (And for those of you who doubt that either Louisville or West Virginia would drop another game, just check their schedules. For Louisville you'll find they have three games remaining (after W.V.) against teams with winning records. Two are on the road (Rutgers, Pittsburgh). And for West Virginia, you'll find that their four remaining conference games are against the only other teams in the Big East with winning records. One of them is at Pittsburgh.)
So now, in an attempt to simplify . . . here's the thing to realize in all of these scenarios: It looks as though it all comes down to a two-loss Oklahoma team against a two-loss team from any of those four (non SEC, non Big Ten) conferences.
And, in that event, we will have FOUR ARGUMENTS THAT NO OTHER TWO-LOSS TEAM (from amongst those contenders) COULD BRING TO THE TABLE to sway that final BCS Bowl to give us the last remaining invitation to the dance. Here they are:
1) The Oregon Robbery. Aside from one of the biggest debacles since "the fifth down" in Missouri, we are actually a one-loss team. If it gets down to this, the press will make a big deal out of this.
2) Adrian Peterson. We would be show-casing the final game of one of the best, most exciting college football players to ever run the football . . . in a feel-good come-back story for both himself, and the team.
3) The Sooner Nation would travel better than any of those other contenders, and have more national television appeal . . . especially if you throw in #4 . . .
4) Big-time Re-match. Guess who gets the last pick for at-large selections???? THE FIESTA BOWL, who will be looking for a sexy match-up for the other team they already have slotted for their bowl. And that team would be TEXAS, the Big XII champion. How about that, folks? Wouldn't that be a great send-off game for AD!?!? (Side-note: this "rematch" argument is the main reason why we don't want Cal to win the Pac 10 and leave us pitted against two-loss USC team for this final bid. The Fiesta Bowl would likely take a Nat'l Title rematch before they'd take the RRSO rematch.)
There you have it, folks. Start praying for the RRSO re-match in Tempe.
Now, I'm going to give my tired fingers . . . and your eyes . . . a much needed break.
BOOMER!!!!