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View Full Version : Grains are pretty bullish this year


royalfan5
10/12/2006, 01:42 PM
http://agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml;jsessionid=HQCTZVZOEODXJQFIBQSB5VQ?sto ryid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/1160658669640.xml

It will be interesting to see how long this rally lasts. Rallying during the heat of harvest is pretty rare, and cash prices of everything but beans are up about .40 over the last month. This rally coupled with the fall in oil prices has already slowed ethanol development. Cattle futures have sagged under the corn rally, and with the lowest wheat stocks since 1982, we may see pretty lofty wheat prices in the next year. Wheat has already limited out in trading twice this week. That's your periodic ag commidity report.
mdklatt
10/12/2006, 01:59 PM
I like bread.
royalfan5
10/12/2006, 02:00 PM
I like bread.
get ready to pay more for it, though.
mdklatt
10/12/2006, 02:03 PM
get ready to pay more for it, though.

:mad:


It seems to me that when bread makers/sellers increase prices they do it in large enough jumps to mask all the short term variation. A loaf of Mrs. Baird's jumped from $1.50 to $2 not too long ago, and I think the last jump before that was from $1 to $1.50. Those 50 cent increases keep the price stable for awhile. The oil industry could learn something from the bread industry: people prefer price stability, even if means paying more.
royalfan5
10/12/2006, 02:04 PM
:mad:
falling oil prices will offset some of the wheat price increase. Plus Oklahoma farmers might make more money if they get some rain next year.
mdklatt
10/12/2006, 02:11 PM
falling oil prices will offset some of the wheat price increase.

But I bet the price of bread won't go back down (see above).
royalfan5
10/12/2006, 02:13 PM
But I bet the price of bread won't go back down (see above).
Probably not, but it is good for agribusiness, plus the percentage of income American's spend of food will likely keep falling. Good thing the farm program subsidizes cheap food for everyone.
royalfan5
10/13/2006, 12:35 PM
more on the low grain stocks this year.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0c021878-5a16-11db-8f16-0000779e2340.html

This makes me even more excited about all my interviews with Grain Trading firms coming up.
Mixer!
10/13/2006, 05:42 PM
http://img8.imagepile.net/img8/158hops.gif

THE only grain I really care about on Friday.