Hey I found a ANALyst who picks OU to win over Texas [Archive]

milesl

10/5/2006, 01:27 PM

It could be because alot of sports websites are filtered here at work, the one that I could get on has Texas winning in their predictions

By Brock Murphy

Texas vs. Oklahoma:

StoryLine: Freshman Colt McCoy leads his Longhorn charges to Dallas to take on Adrian Peterson and the Oklahoma Sooners, whose turn it is to be the “home” team.

Breakdown: McCoy spent last week’s glorified scrimmage against Sam Houston State working on extending his routes and connecting with his receiving corps. Against Ohio State, McCoy threw 10 of his 19 completions to his tailbacks. Look for the Texas staff to put more responsibility on his young shoulders for this game than they did against Ohio State by increasing the number of calls which require him to hook up with his receivers. The added responsibility may inspire. It better, because this is the first true rivalry game which McCoy will play and the first big game he will start without the staff asking him to take baby steps. Stoops and company will put pressure on the running game, though Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young will find periodically find their holes. Still, their productivity will be challenged and OU will require McCoy to air things out to win. Oklahoma has played musical chairs with its defensive backfield but has settled on what it feels is the best combination of athleticism and speed. Few receiver groups can match the Sooner backfield, man-for-man. While Limas Sweed, Billy Pittman and Quan Cosby are a formidable trio, OU has the ability to keep them contained most of the time. Sweed will make his plays, but they won’t be big enough or come often enough to pinball the score. On the other side of the ball, Paul Thompson has quietly put together an impressive season. He ranks as the 13th most efficient passer in the nation with nearly 1,000 yards, eight TD’s and three INT’s. His efficiency has taken pressure off of the running game (and OU’s young, but talented, offensive line) which has allowed Adrian Peterson to do his thing (663 yards, 7 TD’s). However, the Texas defensive front is one of the more dominant units in the game and they face a young OU line which has been forged by fire. Frankly, the Sooner offensive line is outmatched but Oklahoma understands how to scheme around active fronts. Peterson has all of four receptions on the year. Look for him to add to that figure this Saturday to help keep things honest.

Bold Prediction: Emotions, large doses of youth, and colossal athleticism collides in Dallas this weekend. In a chess-match such as this, the absence of the autonomous Vince Young proves to be the difference. Oklahoma 27 Texas 24

CapitolSooner

10/5/2006, 01:56 PM

Well this how Scouts views us and just so you know the only two categories that we are better than Texas in is the linebacker positions and running back.

Texas vs. Oklahoma
Insider
By Scouts, Inc

Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
The Red River Rivalry is the next big litmus test for redshirt freshman QB Colt McCoy. McCoy is a dual-threat quarterback who shows good poise for a young player. He is comfortable running the option and his passing efficiency is improving with each start. However, while he has noticeably improved since the Week 2 loss to Ohio State, Saturday's game will mark the first time he has faced a defense with similar speed and athleticism. Getting pressure on McCoy is critica,l but the Sooners have been surprisingly ineffective in that department. Defensive ends Larry Birdine, C.J. Ah You and Calvin Thibodeaux have not lived up to expectations with just one combined sack so far this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma cannot afford to blitz its linebackers very often for fear of being burnt in coverage -- or by Texas' screen-pass package. The Sooners have also experienced some issues in their secondary. D.J. Wolfe lost his starting job at the boundary cornerback position and has been replaced by inconsistent sophomore Lendy Holmes. Reggie Smith has been moved back and forth between cornerback and safety, which has prevented this unit from gelling and could lead to some assignment breakdowns. This unit, as a whole, has been susceptible to the deep ball and it ranks 60th in the nation in pass defense.

Oklahoma vs. Texas
Oklahoma vs. Texas

When: Oct. 7, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Dallas
Preview: Texas looks for second straight win against Sooners

By no means do we expect the Longhorns to abort the run in this game, but they have too many receiving weapons not to test the Sooners' vulnerable pass defense. In order to overcome his lack of ideal arm strength, McCoy must make quick reads and show good timing on the deep ball when throwing downfield to his speedy perimeter receivers in Limas Sweed and Billy Pittman. Sweed is a match up nightmare because of his 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame, and Pittman is a burner with a knack for making the clutch catch. The Longhorns also have pass-catching weapons in No. 3 wide receiver Quan Cosby, a deep threat from the slot position, and backup tight end Jermichael Finley, who is athletic enough to stretch the seam when the Sooners are caught overcompensating on the perimeter in coverage.

With so many weapons in their arsenal, the Longhorns can utilize more spread formations in Saturday's game. Not only will that help to generate some mismatches in the passing game, it also should create favorable run-blocking fronts for them to attack on the ground. The Sooners simply do not have the proven talent in the secondary to play base-personnel against three-and-four receiver sets, which means they'll be forced to play a lot of nickel packages on defense. If that's the case, Texas' massive offensive line, which averages 315 pounds across the board, will have the size and number advantage it needs in order to open holes for the running back tandem of Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young. Charles is a bit undersized but his rare speed makes him a homerun threat, especially on outside runs, draws and screens. He is averaging 6.1 yards on 55 carries so far this season. Young has also proven to be a consistent workhorse with an identical average of 6.1 yards per carry as the backup.

Oklahoma has one of the nation's best linebacker duos in Rufus Alexander (WLB) and Zach Latimer, who have combined for 58 total tackles in four outings. While Alexander and Latimer are quick and relentless enough to limit Texas' perimeter rushing attack for a while, their lack of size makes them vulnerable to wearing down later in the game. Furthermore, Oklahonma's interior defensive line is undersized, which means Alexander and Latimer will be fighting off bigger blockers from the opening whistle. If Texas can protect the ball, sustain drives and remain patient with the run, its offensive line will eventually overwhelm Oklahoma's undersized front-seven.

Oklahoma Offense vs. Texas Defense
There are advantages and disadvantages to Oklahoma being idle this past week. One clear advantage is rest, which should prove to be most advantageous for a power runner such as RB Adrian Peterson. The last time the Sooners beat the Longhorns was in 2004, when Peterson rushed for 225 yards on 32 carries. Head coach Bob Stoops would rather be a bit more balanced in this game, but he certainly wouldn't mind getting his best player 30-plus touches again. The challenge for Stoops' unit is to back off a Texas defense that likes to frequently load up with eight-man fronts. So far this season opponents are averaging just 36.6 yards per game on the ground versus this unit. The Sooners offensive line will have its hands full up front against a big, athletic defensive front that features 315-pound junior Frank Okam at defensive tackle and a pair of 270-pound senior defensive ends in Tim Crowder and Brian Robison. Behind that group is a linebacker trio of SLB Robert Killebrew (WLB), Rashad Bobino (MLB) and WLB Drew Kelson (WLB) that lacks star power, but all three are veteran starters with good athletic ability and open-field tackling skills. So long as the front-four is able to protect them, Killebrew, Bobino and Kelson should clean up from sideline-to-sideline versus the run. And that's not to mention SS Michael Griffin, who frequently gets cheated up as a fourth linebacker by aggressive defensive coordinator Gene Chizik.

Don't be surprised if the Sooners take some early chances with the deep ball on Saturday in an attempt to loosen up the Longhorn defense. QB Paul Thompson has developed a fine rapport with 6-foot-4, 205-pound sophomore WR Malcolm Kelly, who is averaging 22.3 yards per catch with four touchdowns so far this season. Thompson also has potential weapons at wide receiver in Juaquin Iglesias and Fred Strong, who have combined for 24 catches through four games. The coverage skills of corners Aaron Ross and Tarell Brown will be put to the test in this game, as the Longhorns will spend a lot of time in man-free and cover-three coverage with Michael Griffin focusing more on run-support versus Peterson in this game. In both cases FS Marcus Griffin will be responsible for the deep-middle of the field. Texas got burned by Ohio State's deep corps of receivers earlier this season when Brown was sidelined because of a suspension. Now that Brown is back in the starting lineup the Longhorns are far better equipped to play aggressive perimeter coverage. Brown matches up well versus Kelly because he is big and strong enough to hold his ground in press coverage. On the opposite side, expect the taller and leaner Ross to put the clamps on Iglesias. Ultimately, the versatility of the Griffins at both safety positions will allow Texas to better load up versus the run without giving up as much in coverage. So long as Brown, Ross and Marcus Griffin prove capable of limiting big plays via the air, Chizik can be as aggressive as he needs to be as a play-caller in this game.

Special Teams
Greg Johnson continues to be a one-man show in the kicking game for Texas. He has connected on one of only two field goal attempts this season, which his lone miss coming from 46 yards out. Johnson has been excellent as a punter and kickoff specialist. He is averaging 43.2 yards per punt with nine of 14 attempts landing inside the opponents' 20 yard line and 10 of his 29 kickoff attempts have gone for touchbacks.

The Sooners have more diversity in their kicking game and it's safe to say that they have the edge in this department. PK Garret Hartley has connected on nine of his 10 field goal attempts with a long of 44 yards, and his only miss was a block. The punting duties have been handled by Michael Cohen, who has an even better average per attempt (43.9) than Johnson but he hasn't been quite as consistent in terms of his directional kicking.

The Longhorns have weapon in the return game. Young and Cosby handle most of the attempts for a kick return unit that averages 22.2 yards per return and Ross is averaging 13.8 yards per punt return, including a 46-yard touchdown. However, the Sooners' return units have been even stronger, as they rank in the top-20 nationally both on kickoffs and punts. The blocking has been solid but most of the credit goes to Reggie Smith, who is averaging 27.5 yards per kick return and 15.9 yards per punt return, including a 62-yard touchdown.

Matchups
• Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly vs. Texas CB Tarell Brown
• Texas ROT Justin Blalock vs. Oklahoma LDE C.J. Ah You
• Texas WR Limas Sweed vs. Oklahoma CB Reggie Smith

Scouts' Edge
Saturday's 101st edition of the Red River Rivalry will be far from a shootout. Inexperience at quarterback is a commonality for both teams, so expect plenty of run for Peterson on the Oklahoma side and Charles and Young for Texas. McCoy won't need to be the hero in this game, but he will need to exploit man-coverage with a couple of big throws vertically to Sweed and Pittman. If McCoy can do that much his supporting cast will take care of the rest. The Longhorns' defense has been far more consistent than the Sooners' talented but erratic unit. Peterson can keep Oklahoma in this game for four quarters but eventually Texas' defensive speed will force Thompson into some costly turnovers. Upsets in this rivalry have been hard to come by recently, and the Longhorns will carry on the tradition as the favorite this Saturday.

Prediction: Longhorns 27, Sooners 20