Statistically Breakdown of Oregon thusfar.

[Readyfor8]

It's to early for stats I think but this is what I have to go on so far this year. May I also say that I have predicted the margin of victory for our first two games exactly. I also predicted the sexat vs. Ohio St. margin of victory. I should probably go to Vegas, seriously.

Offense

Passing
Oklahoma - 35 for 57, with 499 total yards, 4 TD's, 3 INT's, and 2 Sacks, 147.5 rating
Oregon - 44 for 66, with 476 total yards, 1 TD's, 0 INT's, 0 Sacks, 132.2 rating

Advantage - Even While we have a slight statistical edge, and I was unimpressed with Oregons outing vs. Fresno on Saturday. I am going to give the Ducks the benifit of the doubt on passing, although our passing offense has been a suprise positive this far into the season. Before the season started I would have put this heavily in Oregons favor.

Players to Watch
Quarterback:
OU: Paul Thompson - 33-57 for 499 yards, 4 TD's, 3 INT's, 2 Sacks, 147.5 Rating
Oregon: Dennis Dixon - 44-66 for 476 total yards with 1 TD, 132.2 Rating
Recieving:
OU:Malcom Kelly 9-149 and 2 TD's, Joe Jon Finley 6-117 and 1 TD, Adrian Peterson 3-75 and 1 TD, Fred Strong 7-74
Oregon: 9-148 and 1 TD, Garren Strong 7-81, Donte Rosario 5-80.

Rushing
Oklahoma - 64 attempts for 324 yards and 3 Touchdowns.
Oregon - 75 attempts for 437 yards and 8 Touchdowns.

Advantage - Oregon While I believe we have the best Running Back in the country in Adrian Petersen I am going to give the edge to Oregon based on thier Offensive Line. Jonathan "Snoop" Stewart was injured and the defenses they have faced are terrible vs. the run but they still have performed up to and above expectations here.

Players to Watch:
OU - Adrian Petersen - 56-304 and 3 Touchdowns
Oregon - Jonathan Stewart - 23-171 and 3 Touchdowns

Overall Offense - While Oregon is averaging 39.5 points a game, they played statistcally worse defensive teams Washington being slightly better than Stanford and UAB being statistically superior to Fresno St. I still feel it is too early to label a tougher schedule thus far until there are atleast 5 games in the season.

Advantage - Oregon Although I feel our Offense has performed above and beyond what was expected of it before the season started, I feel that Oregon has performed up to expectations on Offense. They are however a more one dimensional offense than what we saw last year at the end of the year, atleast statistcally.

Defense

Rushing
Oklahoma - 339 total, 169.5 yards per game, 2 TD's
Oregon - 306 total, 153 yards per game, 2 TD's

Advantage - Oklahoma While our defense has performed poorest in this category, of any other I have analyzed so far we still have given up only a few more yards than Oregon has in rushing. I doubt they have faced an Adrian Petersen yet either so I look for thier Rushing Defense to be exposed in a big way this weekend.

Passing
Oklahoma - 349 total yards, 174.5 yards per game, 2 TD's
Oregon - 374 total yards, 187 yards per game, 2 TD's, 2 INT's

Advantage - Oklahoma While Oklahoma is only ahead by a small margin statisically, they have also had a few plays that were longer than average. Also in watching the Fresno St. game I watched them throw all over the field, and I feel that Oklahoma has a true shutdown corner and a weak corner. This means that we take away one side of the field for Oregon. Oregon does have a few Interceptions that makes this a closer category, however I still feel that if we had some stickum on Carters gloves last week we would have had some of INT's as well.

Points
Oklahoma - 37 points total, 18.5 points per game
Oregon - 34 points total, 17.0 points per game

Advantage - Oklahoma While the margin of victory here is only a field I feel that Oklahoma has prevented more touchdowns and forced more Fieldgoals in the red zone that Oregon has. Also the trash time score by Washington swung this statistically in Oregons favor. I call this a slight margin.

Overall Defense - I feel our defense has underperformed up to this and Oregons defense has just performed up to par. However, our defense is a few busted plays away from a statiscal landslide in defensive stats. Also I felt that the defense gelled after the first play of the game vs. Washington. While Wolfe gave up a long passing play to set up another score, since Lindy Holmes came in our defense has been closer to what we expected.

Advantage - Oklahoma Statiscially we are a little behind in Rushing and Points given, but in those area's I feel we have performed above Oregon. If Oklahoma shows up and plays defense the way we did after the first play from scrimmage vs. Washington, I think we win this game.

Special Teams

Overall Special Teams - I found these stats and added them up myself by box score, so I am not publishing them. Oregons punter is averaging 40 yards per kick, while is not punting for Baylor (Punter-U) he is still doing nicely. Thier kick returns on the whole aren't spectacular statistically although they have only had 11 returnable kicks this year, and only two were over 20 yards. One however was for 57 yards but I doubt they will use Jonathan "Snoop" Stewart on kickoff returns this weekend. Oklahoma on the other hand has generated more than 300 yards in returns this year.

Both teams have had adequate kickoff and punt coverage, and thier extra point attempts are both perfect. Slight edge to Oklahoma in Field Goals however because Oregons Kicker is 3/4 with a long of 38 yards, and Garrett Hartley is 4/4 all outside of 30 yards with a long of 44.

Advantage - Oklahoma Special teams have been truely special this year, and in a good way. While Oregon is doing average Oklahoma is above average in everything but punting. An even bigger note here is Oregon has had a whopping 12 returnable kicks this year on Kickoffs which means we wont see many touchbacks on Saturday, instead we will see Jaquin or Reggie get a nice chunk of yards.

Game Summary

I feel that Oklahoma and Oregon both come into this game evenly matched, and while our defense has only played one good quarter they are statisically equal to Oregon. While Oregons Rushing game has been stellar this year, they also have had a single major blowout. Is Jonathan "Snoop" Stewart that good? Lets see if our rushing defense can show up this weekend.

Adrian should have a big game this weekend because of the big yards and wide holes I saw vs. Fresno St. on Saturday when they squared off with Oregon. Paul Thompson should be able to force Oregon to respect the pass, and pull men out of the box and if they don't we could be in for a long day.

Margin of Victory - Oklahoma by 4 points.

[sooneron]

Pretty fair analogy.

[Ash]

Nice jorb getting the numbers out there.

Dixon is a really good passer even though you might expect better numbers overall, considering the teams they played.

He's got a 67% completion rate this year.

[All_Day_28]

nice post

[SoonerLB]

Good job Readyfor8! The only thing I would add is that Fresno State is a better football team than Washington, so we need to play our best this Sat.

[KingDavid]

Nice post. I appreciate the analysis and thought. I think I agree with everything except I think the score will be closer because of the location of the game. That's an intangible factor that swings in their favor, especially given our lack of experience on the OL.

[Soonerus]

I hope you are right...I am (optimistically) , after watching Oregon on Saturday, predicting a larger margin of victory for OU, more like 10+....

[Rogue]

Good analysis.

[4everasooner]

good post, i give the ducks an edge; but with a quick start we can take it back.

[Dan Thompson]

We just need to watch out for the trick plays that Oregon likes.

[Readyfor8]

Lots of grammatical errors now that I look at it but meh. I did think that because it was in Autzen it would be an intangible factor in favor of Oregon however, Oregon has 7 losses at home since 2002. Thier only loss last year was to USC at home and it wasn't even close.

Autzen is supposed to be "Kyle Field West" however when you hear things from Cal about Tenessee having a home crowd that they have never experienced before, its hard to believe. Not only that but Autzen only seats 50000 people, and I feel that this wont even be the third most hostile crowd we will see this year.

Some Washington fans said that they had visited Eugene a few times and that it wasn't close to our noise level at home this weekend. I just don't see them making it too tough on us noise wise.

Will it be noisy and hostile? Yes
Will the noise level be a swing factor? No

[OUstud]

Keep in mind, they probably have some padded stats vs. Stanford. Boy do they suck!

[Readyfor8]

Good job Readyfor8! The only thing I would add is that Fresno State is a better football team than Washington, so we need to play our best this Sat.

Thanks.

I agree that Fresno St. is better than Washington. Washington is also better than Stanford, and statistically UAB is better than all of the teams both Oregon and Oklahoma have played. So I call the schedule thus far a wash because Fresno was played on the road.

[KingDavid]

Lots of grammatical errors now that I look at it but meh. I did think that because it was in Autzen it would be an intangible factor in favor of Oregon however, Oregon has 7 losses at home since 2002. Thier only loss last year was to USC at home and it wasn't even close.

Autzen is supposed to be "Kyle Field West" however when you hear things from Cal about Tenessee having a home crowd that they have never experienced before, its hard to believe. Not only that but Autzen only seats 50000 people, and I feel that this wont even be the third most hostile crowd we will see this year.

Some Washington fans said that they had visited Eugene a few times and that it wasn't close to our noise level at home this weekend. I just don't see them making it too tough on us noise wise.

Will it be noisy and hostile? Yes
Will the noise level be a swing factor? No

It's not just the noise. It's the fact that it's our first road game. I think it will hold more sway than you're acknowledging . . . but I hope it doesn't.

If our line can jump off-sides 5 times at home, how will they hold up on the road for the first time? One could argue that those first penalties on our opening series against UW were a 3-7 point swing in UW's favor. We immediately gave ground in the field position battle . . . and wham, we're behind by 7.

Just saying . . .

[Readyfor8]

It's not just the noise. It's the fact that it's our first road game. I think it will hold more sway than you're acknowledging . . . but I hope it doesn't.

If our line can jump off-sides 5 times at home, how will they hold up on the road for the first time? One could argue that those first penalties on our opening series against UW were a 3-7 point swing in UW's favor. We immediately gave ground in the field position battle . . . and wham, we're behind by 7.

Just saying . . .

The reason I am saying this, is that this team is better than the team that played for OU last year. If I truely believe that, then the only way this team can improve this year is to win on the road.

Last years team went 2-2 on the road (not counting Oregon or Texas). I really think this years team is better than last years and we were close to beating UCLA, barring a few bad calls that swung the momentum for UCLA.

I honestly think that of our road games this year, Oregon is probably the 3rd or 4th most hostile enviroment. We have 5 true road games this season at Mizzou, A&M, Okie St., and Baylor; with Mizzou or Baylor being worse than Oregon. I think we have to atleast go 3-2 on the road to improve on last years record which I think we do.

If that is the case, who do we lose to on the Road? Its gotta be this one or Okie light being 2nd to A&M. A&M and Okie light haven't played a game yet (atleast not that I can tell) and that means I have to pick OU to win this game if I think OU improves its record on last season. I know its early, I know they had some false starts, but I also think they work on that all week before Oregon and I think we still win.

I should point out though, I see this game as a 50/50 toss up. I edged Oklahoma by 4 because im an OU fan, so thats that. :D

[TrophyCollector]

History - OU x 1,000

OU 6-0, outscored the *ucks 201-31.

[KingDavid]

The reason I am saying this, is that this team is better than the team that played for OU last year. If I truely believe that, then the only way this team can improve this year is to win on the road.

Last years team went 2-2 on the road (not counting Oregon or Texas). I really think this years team is better than last years and we were close to beating UCLA, barring a few bad calls that swung the momentum for UCLA.

I honestly think that of our road games this year, Oregon is probably the 3rd or 4th most hostile enviroment. We have 5 true road games this season at Mizzou, A&M, Okie St., and Baylor; with Mizzou or Baylor being worse than Oregon. I think we have to atleast go 3-2 on the road to improve on last years record which I think we do.

If that is the case, who do we lose to on the Road? Its gotta be this one or Okie light being 2nd to A&M. A&M and Okie light haven't played a game yet (atleast not that I can tell) and that means I have to pick OU to win this game if I think OU improves its record on last season. I know its early, I know they had some false starts, but I also think they work on that all week before Oregon and I think we still win.

I should point out though, I see this game as a 50/50 toss up. I edged Oklahoma by 4 because im an OU fan, so thats that. :D

Don't get me wrong - I think we'll win, too. And I think we'll do better than just 3-2 on the road.

I'm just not confident enough to have us winning by 4. I posted my concerns in another thread somewhere. I'd be interested in your take, btw.

I think we win by 1 or 2. Boomer!

[Readyfor8]

Don't get me wrong - I think we'll win, too. And I think we'll do better than just 3-2 on the road.

I'm just not confident enough to have us winning by 4. I posted my concerns in another thread somewhere. I'd be interested in your take, btw.

I think we win by 1 or 2. Boomer!

SOONER!!!

(never leave a BOOMER hangin!!! :D)

Looking for your post now.

[olevetonahill]

Im just waiting for the Vbookie to set the line
if the ducks are favored Im betting all on OU ;)

[westcoast_sooner]

Great post - glad you put together all those stats. Let's hope your streak continues and we get the Sooner win in Eugene.

[olevetonahill]

SOONER!!!

(never leave a BOOMER hangin!!! :D)

Looking for your post now.
Here it Be
BOOMER:cool:

[Readyfor8]

Here it Be
BOOMER:cool:

Sooner!!! :pop:

[QuackAttack]

Very good post. Interesting read. One thing I might add is that you have to give more credit to Fresno State's OL than you'd expect from a Div II school. Their Center is over 300 lbs and will easily go into the NFL. Plus, that team was playing their biggest game of the year, at home, so the intensity and desire was over the top for Fresno.

I agree with your analysis overall, but I will take Oregon by 4, giving them the edge simply due to home field advantage. If it were in Oklahoma, I would switch to your prediction.

[Bluto Blutarsky]

Some Washington fans said that they had visited Eugene a few times and that it wasn't close to our noise level at home this weekend. I just don't see them making it too tough on us noise wise.

Will it be noisy and hostile? Yes
Will the noise level be a swing factor? No

Of course a mutt(err, huskie) would say that. We have dismantled their little squad their last two times in Autzen. Those games were, despite being very satisfying, not exactly the type of games where Autzen gets rockin'.

For sake of comparison, how loud was the UAB game versus any recent and big OOC game at Owen?

EDIT: In hindsight, probably not the best analogy as the UAB tilt was a tight game. I think you get my drift though.

To those headed west for the game, have a safe game and I hope you enjoy our great State. I'll be going out of my way to make any and all Sooners feel like welcome guests in and around Autzen.

GO DUCKS!!!!!

[Readyfor8]

Well i'm comparing Autzen to Kyle Field (A&M) or Boone Pickens (Okie Light). Really I have heard that in general most stadiums in the pacific Northwest aren't very loud.

Even the Collesium vs. UCLA wasn't that loud according to a Freshman in one of my classes that lived in LA.

The Fock (OU) isn't even the loudest stadium in the southwest. Kyle is Loud, so yea maybe i am a bit spoiled when it comes to crowd noise.

[stoopified]

Its 10:12am CDT and the Ducks still suck.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Mostly because of where the game is played I think this will be the toughest game for us to win this year. I would expect us to be a 2-3 pt underdog. This is a game that the Ducks have circled on their schedule for a while. If there is a game that would hurt us the least to lose it would be this one. If we can pull this one out, we might win them all.

If we win at Oregon after beating them at home and a neutral site then I think Oregon should have at least one of their many uniforms with a logo that says "Property of OU athletic dept".

[NormanPride]

Very good post. Interesting read. One thing I might add is that you have to give more credit to Fresno State's OL than you'd expect from a Div II school. Their Center is over 300 lbs and will easily go into the NFL. Plus, that team was playing their biggest game of the year, at home, so the intensity and desire was over the top for Fresno.

I agree with your analysis overall, but I will take Oregon by 4, giving them the edge simply due to home field advantage. If it were in Oklahoma, I would switch to your prediction.

I agree with this for the most part. However, I would say we've played two very similar teams to Oregon, and our weak point has been the center of our D, which is improving quickly. I would bet Oregon will test the secondary more, which may or may not work. Either way, I don't think UO's offense will be nearly as effective, as our D will not be intimidated by the crowd.

Our offense, however, will be a bit shaken. I wouldn't expect many OLine errors (holding calls aside because of home favoritism that almost everyone gets) but I would expect a few busts. Paul may get hit a few times, but since he's a RS Sr I would doubt highly that he'll be shaken by any noise as well. The WRs need to get more physical, but they've also played in some tough places so I wouldn't worry as much about them. I will say this: Oregon had better have more than a touchdown lead at half, because this team is scary in the second half.

[GDC]

OU Notebook: Noisy Ducks
By JOHN E. HOOVER AND GUERIN EMIG World Sports Writers
9/12/2006

Despite having never played at Oregon, Oklahoma is well aware of the noise it will encounter at Autzen Stadium on Saturday. Thus the prop offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson brought to practice Monday afternoon. "Ear plugs," left guard Duke Robinson said.

"We've worked with noise before," said center Jon Cooper. "They've had speakers out there. This was something new."

The idea is to tighten the focus on QB Paul Thompson, his signals and his cadence. It was something the Sooners fought last Saturday against Washington, when they were hit with five procedure penalties.

It won't get any easier among the nearly 60,000 screaming Oregon fans this weekend.

He knows: Coach Bob Stoops isn't about to try to paint over the flaws in his team's 2-0 start. Missed blocks, missed tackles, penalties, turnovers, dropped passes, overthrown receivers -- it seems a lot is holding OU back, and it seems a lot is self-inflicted.

Stoops acknowledges the problems and says he wants them fixed as soon as possible. He said Sunday that he's not satisfied with where his team has been so far.

"I want to be better," Stoops said. "I think we're still -- we're frustrated

(in Saturday's 37-20 win over Washington) because we know we're capable of so much more. At times we were right on the verge of it. . . . Our potential and what we're able to do is better than what we're doing. So, as a coach, you've got to get it."

High there: Thompson has gotten a lot of pats on the back for his 21-of-33 passing day against Washington. He threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns (Rhett Bomar had only one game of more than one touchdown; Thompson has had two in a row). But there could have been much more he said. Yes, Thompson has missed some wide open receivers this year with high throws. A couple have been alone in the end zone.

Thompson thinks there is a reason his ball is sailing. Nerves could be part of it, although he swears he's relaxed. He thinks it's more mechanical.

"That one to Juaquin (Iglesias), I really didn't have a good grip on the ball," he said. "I had a roll out to Fred as well that was high. That's just getting out and getting the ball and getting your feet set.

"Even on a rollout, you've got to have your feet set. Sometimes if it see it quick, I won't get all the way turned around. It's just different mechanical things. I know some of the passes are high. But I'll definitely continue to work on those."

Cram course: Thompson is studying like crazy, trying to make up for eight months he spent at receiver.

"I get mad at (quarterbacks coach Josh) Heupel and (offensive coordinator Kevin) Wilson sometimes because they want me to go to every meeting possible," Thompson said. "Sometimes I just want to go get some food, but I'm in meetings. But it definitely pays off on Saturdays, so I can't argue with it."

Not yet: Oklahoma could use all hands on deck at defensive tackle. UAB surged ahead for 135 rushing yards, and Washington netted 204.

Sunday, defensive coordinator Brent Venables said first-year freshman Gerald McCoy, USA Today's national defensive player of the year, "might be" ready to step into the defensive tackle rotation. Monday night, though, Stoops said, "probably night right now."

Corner market: Stoops said it's too ealry to say if D.J. Wolfe has lost his job at cornerback.

"He'll have opportunities," Stoops said, "and we'll see how he does with it."

Stoops said Lendy Holmes "looked good" in Monday's practice and "played well in the second half" against Washington. Stoops also said Macrus Walker was getting a look as well./

[landrun]

Very good post. Interesting read. One thing I might add is that you have to give more credit to Fresno State's OL than you'd expect from a Div II school. Their Center is over 300 lbs and will easily go into the NFL. Plus, that team was playing their biggest game of the year, at home, so the intensity and desire was over the top for Fresno...

Freson St. isn't a Div II School.

They're better than UAB too. They're the best school either OU or Oregon has played so far this season. Beating Fresno St. is impressive. They're fiesty and can hang with anyone - just ask USC last year. I suspect the Oline is better than ours. (don't know ... but we're pretty young there)

Oregon beating Fresno St. is far better than us beating UAB ...by a long shot.

If their run game is good (and if I understand correctly, their tailback was the #1 rated rb in the country the year before AD came out) we will be in a 4qtr long fight.

Personally, I'm a little skeerd their run game is better than most realize. :(

[MiccoMacey]

Agree land run.

They'll be all we can handle, especially if we tackle like we've been tackling.

Kenny James < Jonathon Stewart.

[Quack 10]

I honestly think that of our road games this year, Oregon is probably the 3rd or 4th most hostile enviroment.

I honestly don't think that's a particularly informed statement, but I can't argue the rest of it much ... solid assesment.

[duckfreak]

Your analysis is laughable. You can't really say Oklahoma has played an equal schedule to Oregon? Your D was soft as tissue when you faced the 10th best offense in the Pac-10 last week. Oregon will roll. Dixon vs. whover you are starting, yeah that's close. 67% completion percentage, no interceptions... that's pretty close to your guys safety.

Duck's will dominate, 42-10.

[Ash]

Your analysis is laughable. You can't really say Oklahoma has played an equal schedule to Oregon? Your D was soft as tissue when you faced the 10th best offense in the Pac-10 last week. Oregon will roll. Dixon vs. whover you are starting, yeah that's close. 67% completion percentage, no interceptions... that's pretty close to your guys safety.

Duck's will dominate, 42-10.

If you're going to post and talk sh** at least read a few of the posts.

Knowing who you're team matches up against is also suggested.


:rolleyes:

[sooneron]

Wow, all those passes completed for 67% and only one little td to show for it.