Finally Finished my preseason picks...

[Desert Sapper]

Tell me what you think...

http://www.geocities.com/nate_crazyeldar/college_football.html

http://www.geocities.com/nate_crazyeldar/OU_Football.html

[Desert Sapper]

Sorry. I see that geocities is giving some issues. Once I can connect I'll post the text on here.

[Desert Sapper]

#1 Notre Dame (9-3) 8O/9D /0K

Why? Offense. QB Brady Quinn (292/450/3919 YDS -7 INT/32 TD), WR Jeff Samardzija (77/1249 YDS/15 TD), and RB Darius Walker (253/1196 YDS/9 TD) make up a frighteningly talented trio, all one season more comfortable in Head Coach Charlie Weis’ system. Rhema McKnight, the leading Irish receiver for 2003 and 2004 before injuring himself early last September, returns as a fifth-year senior and will give the Irish some additional firepower. The 477 ypg the team averaged last year could be eclipsed this year. Senior C John Sullivan (Rimington award watch list) anchors an all-senior O-Line with 4 returning starters. 8 offensive and 9 defensive starters return to a 9-3 team from a year ago. 2 of 3 losses were close. DE Victor Abiamiri (Hendricks and Lombardi award watch list) had 15 TFL and 8 sacks a year ago and should be even better. Senior DBs Tom Zbikowski and Chinedum Ndukwe attended speed camps over the summer to try and make up for a perceived lack of speed in the secondary against Ohio State, USC, and other teams (like Michigan State?) last season.

Why Not? Ohio State exposed ND's defense (lower case d) in last season's Fiesta Bowl. An abysmal pass defense last season that gave up 265 ypg and 18 TDs was marked by only one positive: S Tom Zbikowski (71 TT, 5 INT), and he can’t do it by himself. The Irish will look to incoming signees Raeshon McNeil and Darrin Walls to provide some instant speed to the secondary. Weis has been impressed with them, and has said he wants the best players starting at each position. That would not bode well for the Irish. The Irish have almost no experience at LB. It is possible that they could be forced to play incoming freshmen Toryan Smith or Morice Richardson in a pinch. With an opener on the road against Georgia Tech (and superstar WR Calvin Johnson), trips to USC and Michigan State (both of which were losses last year in South Bend), plus back to back home dates against Michigan and Penn State, the schedule doesn’t lend itself to a run at the title. Replacing DJ Fitzpatrick, who kicked and punted for the Irish a year ago will not be easy.

Bottom Line – The Offense is going to be off the charts, but the defense is going to need to find a way to stop the pass if this team hopes to be successful. A strong kicking game is a vital piece to reaching a championship. If the Carl Gioia struggles, the Irish will struggle with him in the close games. If Notre Dame has the intestinal fortitude to make it undefeated to the LA trip (and with a few breaks and better pass defense, it won't be impossible), this team definitely has what it takes to leave Glendale with a crystal football in January.

Impact Recruit – Darrin Walls – CB – If this kid is as good as advertised, he could be starting before the season is out, if only to give the Irish some deep threat security.

[Desert Sapper]

#2 Florida(9-3) 5O/8D/2K

Why? Defense. Obviously the high octane Urban Meyer spread offense will get much of the attention, especially given that it is his second year at Florida, but it will be the defense that keeps this team in the hunt. Brandon Siler and Earl Everett will dominate from their linebacker spots. Defensive End Jarvis Moss, who led the team in TFL (11) and sacks (7.5) a year ago is poised for a huge breakout season, given that he was only used in passing situations last year. Reggie Nelson is a beast from the SS and with 5 sacks last year, a respected force. Kicker Chris Hetland, who went 13/16 on FG (with a long of 47) and 38/40 on PAT was named to the Groza watch list. Chris Leak looks ready to blow people out of the water this season with his arm and his legs. This fourth year starter will be running the same offense he did last year, which would be the first time since he has been at UF that the Gators maintain an offensive scheme from one year to the next. He is backed up by the annointed future of Gator football: Tim Tebow.

Why Not? This may be the toughest schedule in the country. Not only must the Gators visit Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida State, they must contend with SEC West Power LSU. Not only that, but even their ‘tune-up’ games are against bowl teams from a year ago (Southern Miss and UCF). The run game doesn’t have a definitive starter. DeShawn Wynn, the leading rusher from a year ago can’t stay consistent. Kestahn Moore doesn’t have the stamina to run the whole game. The offensive line must replace four starters and could be a huge problem if it hasn’t gelled by the season opener against Southern Miss (lest anyone forget Oklahoma’s debacle against TCU last season in their opener).

Bottom Line – Leak should be more productive in his second season under Meyer. He is a leader and has unmistakable talent. The defense will keep the Gators in nearly every game. If the Offense can establish itself the way Urban Meyer wants it to be, Florida will be very dangerous in the SEC and could contend for a title January 8.

Impact Recruit – Chevon Walker – RB – Enrolled in the spring. If none of the current running backs can establish themselves as the clear starter, this guy might be the answer. He has the talent to at least contribute right away.

[Desert Sapper]

#3 Louisville (9-3) 8O/7D /2K

Why? Michael Bush (205/1143 YDS/23 TD) is one of the best backs in the NCAA, was once named Mr. Football in Kentucky, and is built like a Mack Truck (6’2”, 250 lbs). Brian Brohm (207/301/2883 YDS- 5INT/ 19 TD) is easily the best QB in the Big East. Seniors Eric Wood and Kurt Quarterman at C and SG respectively, anchor the O-Line and are legitimate all-conference candidates. The pass defense could be even better this year without Elvis Dumerville, mostly because the entire secondary returns. The run defense should be formidable. The only truly difficult contests on paper (Miami and West Virginia) will be in Papa John’s Cardinal stadium. Arthur Carmody, who nailed his last 13 FG attempts last season, is a Groza candidate.

Why Not? Miami is a much tougher opponent than Louisville faced all last season (with the exception of Virginia Tech, who thumped the Cardinals 35-24 in the Gator Bowl). 3 O-Linemen must be replaced, which could cause cohesion problems early. This team has not shown that it can consistently dominate, scoring more than 60 in three contests but getting pummeled by, of all teams, South Florida 45-14.

Bottom Line – Replacements on both lines need to develop quickly and control the line of scrimmage. The skill positions are there, but the line has to be dominant for the Cardinals to see legitimate success. The Cardinals have the talent, they have the coach in Bobby Petrino, they even have the right schedule (with tough contests to boost SOS, but nothing too rough). It is now up to the players to have the right attitude and play hard-nosed football.

Impact Recruit – Deantwan Whitehead – DE – With the struggle to replace dominant defensive linemen, this high school stud could get the chance to prove himself early.

[Desert Sapper]

#4 Oklahoma (8-4) 3O/7D/1K

Why? Adrian Peterson (221/1104 YDS/14 TD) returns as a legitimate Heisman candidate. Last year's effort was hampered by injury and poor line play, but he still rushed for over 1000 yards after setting the all-time freshman rushing record in 2004. He’s bigger and faster, and if he can stay healthy, he may again have a shot at over 2000 yards. His self-stated goal is 2200. The Offensive line has improved dramatically in the offseason, both with the addition of some JUCOs (Sherrone Moore and Brandon Walker), and with the return of 3 players that had starting experience last season. The defense will be one of the nation’s best. The DE rotation could be the best in the NCAA. CJ Ah You and Larry Birdine are both on the Hendricks watch list. The DT rotation is among the deepest and most talented in the Big XII. The secondary should be worlds better with a plethora of talent and experience returning. The depth at CB (DJ Wolfe, Reggie Smith, Lendy Holmes, Marcus Walker) is enviable to say the least after being a weakness for the past two seasons. The Sooners moved Reggie Smith (Thorpe watch list) to Corner, where he seems a more natural fit. He is extremely talented, and will see time at WR on Offense as well as on the punt and kick return teams. Rufus Alexander is one of the best LBs in the country (Bednarik, Lott, and Lombardi watch lists) and Zach Latimer isn’t that far behind him. The Sooners could have gone at least 10-2 last season with the right breaks in close games against TCU and Texas Tech. Factor in the way the UCLA game ended, and it’s even possible that the Sooners’ may have only lost to National Champion Texas last season.

Why Not? Rhett Bomar, last season’s starter had shown some real promise before being booted from the team for accepting improper compensation from Big Red Sports/Imports (BRSI), a Norman area car dealership. His loss came as a shock, especially with the strides he had made since his rocky debut against TCU. The line, although likely improved (how could it not be?), is still a huge flashing question mark. Losing JD Quinn in the BRSI scandal may have hurt more than losing Bomar. Punter Cody Freeby got kicked off the team early for skipping class. When games come down to field position, he too may be missed. The Sooners could very easily have gone 4-8 last season, with 4 wins coming by a TD or less. A tough early game against Oregon, the annual fight with Texas, and trips to Kyle and Faurot fields to face the Texas A&M Aggies and Mizzou Tigers respectively make this one of the tougher schedules in the country.

Bottom Line – The Sooners had more injuries last season than they have ever had in the Stoops era, started more freshmen than any other time in Sooner history, and began the season 2-3, but battled back to win 8 games. Fewer injuries this year could make a huge difference, especially with so much more experience returning. The jury is still out on Paul Thompson, who shifted back to QB after a stint at WR. He has the leadership, but his mechanics and accuracy are still at issue. The Sooners remain #4 for me because I don't think the dropoff will be as dramatic as most think at QB. However, with a defense as stalwart as the Sooners’, a brilliant receiving corps, an improved line, and arguably the best RB in the nation, he may only need to limit mistakes and keep defenses honest to be truly successful. Bob Stoops remains the trump card for this program. If he returns to his early form as a risk-taker and great decision maker, the Sooners could be a serious darkhorse candidate for Glendale.

Impact Recruit – Jermaine Gresham, TE – He is a physical specimen. The Sooners will be in dire need of a safety valve for QB Paul Thompson. The 6’7”, 250 lb Gresham could be that easy target. He already has impressed Sooner coaches with his speed and catching ability. If he can block, he will be the best in a long while. Some are comparing him to Keith Jackson.

[Desert Sapper]

#5 Michigan (7-5) 6O/6D /2K

Why? Michigan returns two studs in QB Chad Henne (223/382/2526 YDS – 8 INT/23 TD) and RB Mike Hart (150/662 YDS/4 TD). Yes, they had a down year last year, but they were awesome as freshmen, and could repeat their heroics as juniors. WR Steve Breaston is a playmaker, despite his lackluster junior campaign. Those three are Maxwell award candidates. Sophomore WR Mario Manningham stepped up and performed, leading the team with 27 receptions for 433 YDS and 6 TDs. Tackle Jake Long, an Outland Trophy candidate, and C Mark Bihl anchor what could be an outstanding O-Line. TE Tyler Ecker is a Mackey candidate after catching 21 passes for 285 yds and 2 TDs a year ago. The Defense will be solid this year, behind DE Lamarr Woodley (7 Sacks) and CB Leon Hall (4 INT). All 5 losses last year were within a TD. CB Leon Hall, who intercepted four passes a year ago, is a Thorpe candidate and among three returning starters in the secondary. K Garrett Rivas was 19/26 on FG and 33/35 PATs a year ago and is a Groza candidate.

Why Not? A trip to Notre Dame on September 16 could spell disaster. Couple that in with trips to Happy Valley and the Horseshoe, and Michigan may be lucky to only have 3 losses at the end of the year. This team underachieved so much last year, it is questionable whether they can mount a comeback. QB depth is a huge issue. 3 of the team’s wins were within a TD, meaning they could easily have gone 4-8.

Bottom Line – This team could have been undefeated last year, but underachieved to the point of painful mediocrity. It could have been worse. A TD or less spelled the difference between 4-8 and 12-0 last year. At least Michigan managed to land in the middle. They MUST beat Ohio State for Lloyd Carr to keep his job. Last year was too ugly for fans, and would only be forgiven with a reasonably successful season and a BCS bowl.

Impact Recruit – Brandon Graham, LB – With the underachieving lot of LBs returning, a kid with talent like this could start and make an impact right away.

[Desert Sapper]

#6 LSU (11-2) 4O/5D/1K(punts and kicks)

Why? QB Jamarcus Russell (188/311/2443 YDS – 9 INT/15 TD) led LSU to 6 come from behind victories in the 4th Q or OT last season and has outstanding depth behind him with JR Matt Flynn and incoming freshman Ryan Perrilloux. WR Dwayne Bowe averaged 17.3 YDS on 41 receptions with 9 TDs. Big play threats Craig Davis and Early Doucet round out a very talented receiving corps. RB Alley Broussard (2004 leading rusher) is back after knee problems. Justin Vincent (121/488 YDS/5 TD) also had offseason knee surgery. If either returns to their peak form, LSU will be very dangerous. LaRon Landry (3 INT for 42 YDS) may be the best S in the NCAA. The rest of the defense should be very strong and difficult to move the ball against, especially through the air. Losing to Tennessee in OT was a huge blow to the program, but they rebounded nicely, laying the wood to Miami in the Peach Bowl to the tune of 40-3.

Why Not? A QB controversy brews with camps for Russell, Flynn, and Perrilloux. If LSU lets it, that could easily derail any hopes of a SEC championship run. The receiving corps was largely inconsistent a season ago, despite having tremendous talent. If Broussard and Vincent don't perform up to expectations, LSU may have to resort to unproven Jacob Hester or freshman Keiland Williams, which could spell problems. Replacing Claude Wroten and Kyle Williams (both all-SEC performers) on the D-Line could be a problem, even if the talent is there. The toughest three games for the tigers are on the road against Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee. Les Miles has yet to get a team to, let alone win, a BCS game.

Bottom Line – LSU has lots of talent, but Les Miles could have his hands full, especially with expectations shooting through the roof at the end of last season. The schedule is tough, and the questionable positions don’t have complete answers yet.

Impact Recruit – Al Woods, DT – It takes special talent to start right away on the D-Line in the SEC. Woods might just be that level of talent. After finally making the NCAA clearinghouse hurdle, he could be a vital piece in the aforementioned quest to replace Wroten and Williams.

[Desert Sapper]

#7 Texas (13-0) 5O/7D /0K

Why? The 2006 Rose Bowl brought with it a significant amount of momentum, even more than its 2005 predecessor, and Austin is hopping going into this season. The Longhorns come in with a 20-game winning streak. Defensive Coordinator Gene Chizik is riding his own 28-game winning streak, dating back to his days with Auburn. Thanks to him, the defense will be awesome again, and has the talent to replace the departed stars. Michael Griffin, a Thorpe candidate, made a game saving INT in the Rose Bowl and is one of the best safeties in the country. The front seven (Brian Robison, Roy Miller, Frank Okam, Tim Crowder, Robert Killebrew, Rashad Bobino, and Drew Kelson) is one of the best in the NCAA. Jamaal Charles (119/878 YDS/11 TD) is a spectacular talent and should rush for over 1000 yards this year. He and Selvin Young make for one of the best tandems in the country at RB. The receivers (Limas Sweed, Billy Pittman, and Quan Cosby) should be a big strength this year, and that should help the new QB. Sweed has many in Texas thinking of another former #4: Roy Williams of the Detroit Lions. The O-Line should be excellent again, led by uber-studs Justin Blalock (Lombardi watch list), Kasey Studdard, and Lyle Sendlein.

Why Not? Vince Young, the team’s leading rusher, leading passer, and offensive center of gravity, is gone to the NFL’s Titans. More than once, it was his leadership ability even more than his athletic ability that literally willed the Longhorns to victory. His absence will be difficult to overcome. The new QB, be he Colt McCoy or Jevan Snead, will need to step up fast and establish himself as the team leader. Ohio State will be paying a visit in only the second week of the season and the Longhorns had better be ready for a fight (even if the Buckeyes return only 2 defensive starters. David Thomas, Texas’ leading receiver a year ago, is gone. Jonathan Scott was a force at his Left Tackle spot and may be missed. Defense loses leadership and athleticism with the departure of Rod Wright, Aaron Harris, and Michael Huff (Thorpe Award winner).

Bottom Line – The new QB, whoever it is, will be a major hurdle early, especially if the decision remains to play both QBs. It doesn’t help that the Longhorns have virtually no buffer before the young QB faces a tough top-tier defense. Make no mistake, the Buckeyes won’t have the same D, but it will still be a formidable one. Similarly, the October 7 showdown in Dallas with OU will be much more evenly matched than its predecessor.

Impact Recruit – Sergio Kindle, LB – Although the Longhorns are relatively set at LB, this kid looks like the real deal and will press early for lots of PT.

[Desert Sapper]

#8 USC (12-1) 4O/6D

Why? They-Are-S-C. If you didn’t hear that enough from ESPN last year, just know that they are a formidable opponent, even if they may not be the most invincible team in history. Make no mistake, though. Pete Carroll will have them poised for a run at least another Pac-10 crown and maybe more. Dwayne Jarrett (91/1274 YDS/16 TD) is likely the best WR in the NCAA. With Steve Smith, Fred Davis, and Patrick Turner, they are very easily the best WR corps in the NCAA. That should help QB John David Booty develop his touch early on. The QB should never be discounted at USC (just look at what Matt Leinart did as a sophomore in 2003). The O-Line could be the best in the Pac-10, despite the losses. Tackle Sam Baker and Center Ryan Kalil (All-Americans a year ago) will anchor the line. The LBs (Oscar Lua, Keith Rivers, and Dallas Sartz) have a ton of talent and quality depth. The toughest games on the schedule (Nebraska, Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame) are also home games.

Why Not? Both QBs (John David Booty and Mark Sanchez) have issues (back and legal respectively). The RBs have talent but are largely unproven. Desmond Reed, the RB with the most returning yardage has only 19 carries for 137 YDS. The D-Line was an issue last year, particularly against the Longhorns in the Rose Bowl, and will be questionable this year.

Bottom Line – Pete Carroll has the talent and schedule to keep the ship sailing. The lack of experience and leadership could be a big problem. Bob Stoops’ Oklahoma Sooners faced a similar NFL migration issue last season, but the returning Sooner O-Line wasn’t this good and the skill positions didn’t have this kind of returning quality and depth. The Trojans shouldn’t have as big a dropoff. Only ND looks like a stumbling block, and that game is in the Coliseum. With the right breaks, it's possible that the Trojans could be in the championship game again this year.

Impact Recruit – CJ Gable, RB/Stafon Johnson, RB/Emmanual Moody, RB – They all come with a reputation of skill and speed and could get an early opportunity to showcase their talent, particularly with the lack of proven ability and depth at RB.

[Desert Sapper]

#9 Florida State (8-5) 5O/5D /1K

Why? QB Drew Weatherford (276/469/3208 YDS – 18 INT/18 TD) broke Phillip Rivers’ ACC Freshman passing record last season. Senior RB Lorenzo Booker (119/552 YDS/4 TDS) struggled for much of last season and the run game ranked 109th in the nation. RB Antone Smith, a former Florida Mr. Football is chomping at the bit to show what he can do. WR Chris Davis caught 51 passes for 666 yds and 5 TDs a year ago and looked every bit the next great FSU wideout in a 5 catch, 162 Yd, 1 TD performance in an Aug 22 scrimmage. Improved experience and depth on OL (including JUCO transfer Shannon Boatman) could give Weatherford more time and open some big holes for the RBs. LB should be a force in the ACC, behind young performers two year starterDerek Nicholson and Geno Hayes. DB is also young, but very talented (Michael Ray Garvin, Tony Carter, and JR Bryant). Myron Rolle is coming and could start right away.

Why Not? Losing Fred Rouse was big. He was a great target and could have been a star. Kudos to Bobby Bowden for not keeping him around, though. The early trip to Miami could get very ugly. The win last year in the Doak was a close one, highlighted by defensive heroics. Weatherford threw 18 INTs a year ago. Defense must replace 6 of top 7 tacklers. Mickey Andrews will have his work cut out for him this fall. RB needs to get much stronger before anybody will take the FSU run game seriously.

Bottom Line – It may be too much to ask Bobby Bowden to replace all those studs on defense, but Mickey Andrews is known for making inexperience pay off. Only Miami looms as a big hurdle, with Florida at the end of the year providing a little anxiety. Clemson must travel to the Doak, and the rest of the schedule looks like cake, especially compared to previous FSU schedules.

Impact Recruit – Myron Rolle, S – An aspiring doctor, Rolle chose FSU for its new, up to date Medical School, but he is a ball-hawking superstar that could make the Seminoles deep and dangerous early in his career.

[Desert Sapper]

#10 Ohio State (10-2) 8O/2D /1P

Why? QB Troy Smith (149/237/2284 YDS - 4 INT/16 TD), RB Antonio Pittman (243/1331 YDS/7 TD), and WR Ted Ginn (51/803 YDS/4 TD) all represent superior athleticism, speed, and big play potential. Although contrary to Jim Tressel teams of the past, this one should be no less prolific in Big 10 play. The offense will be among the best in the country. A big O-Line, led by C Doug Datish, G TJ Downing, and T Kirk Barton will be tough in the trenches. Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson will give this team some strength at DT. Pitcock is a legitimate All-American candidate. Jamario O'Neal should blossom as a sophomore in the secondary. AJ Trapasso returns with one of the best punting legs in the Big 10. The Bucks are fortunate to face Michigan in the 'shoe.

Why Not? Almost the entire #1 Rushing D/#5 scoring D in the country is gone, to include LBs AJ Hawk, Bobby Carpenter, and Anthony Schlegel. James Laurinaitis, John Kerr, and Marcus Freeman may have a tough time living up to expectations early. WR Santonio Holmes skipped his senior year for the NFL draft after almost 1000 YDS receiving and 11 TDs. The early trip to Texas looks brutal, especially with the defense so depleted.

Bottom Line – Losses on defense will definitely hurt this team early. The talent and playmakers are there, but the experience is lacking. Offense may have to do it alone for a while, at least until the D is back to form. That may not be enough to beat Texas in Austin.

Impact Recruit – Chris Wells, RB– Wells is a beast at 6'1" 225, and may provide the same dimension to the offense that Maurice Clarett provided in 2002. That season ended pretty well.

[Desert Sapper]

Why Not (INSERT TEAM HERE)?

Okay. There are legitimately 5 or more teams that could also be included on this list.. I know that. I only have 10 slots. I've given my reasons. If your team didn't make it, gee, sorry. I'm not ranking teams based on what I think their records are at the end of the season. I am ranking them based on how good I think they are.

[4everasooner]

I like it, thx for the read.

[XingTheRubicon]

good info

I might switch #4 and #10 however.

[TheUnnamedSooner]

I might switch #4 and #10 however.

Agreed. Great read, I just think the sooners have a lot to prove before they can be considered a top 5 team. And not just because the idiot was kicked off, but because of the beginning of last year and ? at OL.

[Desert Sapper]

I can see OU lower (maybe as low as 7 or 8 -- since saxet has a more proven O-Line and suc, despite losses, should still be pretty potent on O and has better than half its D returning), but I think tosu has to replace 9 defensive starters, which can't possibly be as 'easy' as some of the 'experts' would have you believe.

[Collier11]

Nice pick with Notre Dame :D

[MamaMia]

Looks good. How did your picks do last season? :)