Looks like Real Estate is starting to look weak

[royalfan5]

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/23/news/economy/homesales/index.htm

Should be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[SoonerInKCMO]

Been weakening for a few months.... don't tell Tuba though - he won't believe you.

[OklahomaTuba]

No, I will believe you. :)

No doubt the economy is slowing. Looks like energy and interest rates have done their damage finally.

I just think its laughable how some of the more blinded types tried so hard to ignore how well things were/and might still be going economically, despite all the external things going on around us (energy, war, etc).

They obviously will have no problem saying things are "slowing down". Even if they don't accept that they are slowing down from an economic boom.

[OklahomaTuba]

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/23/news/economy/homesales/index.htm

Should be interesting to see how this shakes out.

what worries me is all the dumbasses that bought homes with these crazy no-interest loans or adjustable rate mortgages or got a equity loan on top of that, and have zero to negative equity!

This was from March:

The Tidal Wave is Coming
Posted by Spencer Rascoff, CFO & VP Marketing
Categories: Mortgages , Zillow
I'm usually a pretty optimistic guy, but I've started to see some scary things on the horizon. And I've gotta pass it on. Check this out: 9.4% of all mortgage borrowers now have no equity or negative equity in their home, and 29% of new mortgages last year had no equity. $800 billion worth of mortgages owe more than their homes are worth, and that's optimistic since it assumes no reduction in home values. One study estimates that if home prices fell by 10%, the share of 2005 homebuyers with negative equity would shoot up to 48%. Yikes! What happens when all those interest only mortgages flip from their low fixed rates to a much higher variable rate? A lot of homeowners who bought houses beyond their means a few years ago via low introductory rate ARMs are suddenly going to find themselves unable to pay their new higher mortgage. And guess what? They have no equity in their house. So they'll have to sell and/or dramatically reduce their consumption. This is a disaster waiting to happen. This analysis says it all:

Many homes were sold with Adjustable Rate Mortgages in 2003 and 2004. Now, we are seeing more than $2 trillion...of these mortgages coming up for a reset in their mortgage rates. My back of the napkin calculations suggest interest payments are going to eat up at least another $3 billion a month in consumer spending capacity over the next year. In a $12 trillion economy, this is not all that large, but it will suck almost 1/2 of 1% of consumer spending potential out of the economy.

Sorry to be such a downer, but I'm worried about the impact that this will have on housing prices and more importantly on the overall American (and global?) economy.

http://www.zillowblog.com/zillow_blog/mortgages/index.html

[1stTimeCaller]

Hell, I'm looking forward to it. Many others are too. It is just another way to redistribute money from idiots to non-idiots.

[Ike]

good. maybe this means I'll be able to afford making the jump from renting to owning when I graduate :)

[tbl]

I just hope I can sell my home in GA in time and get a home in TX on the other side...

[yermom]

what worries me is all the dumbasses that bought homes with these crazy no-interest loans or adjustable rate mortgages or got a equity loan on top of that, and have zero to negative equity!

This was from March:
http://www.zillowblog.com/zillow_blog/mortgages/index.html

that's the crap i was talking about before when you were calling me Debbie Downer or whatever ;)

[Hamhock]

Hell, I'm looking forward to it. Many others are too. It is just another way to redistribute money from idiots to non-idiots.

exactly. there is an increasing amount of money to be made on the courthouse steps.

[Penguin]

Great! I might be able to buy a home soon.


I'll just wait for the avalanche of foreclosures.

[1stTimeCaller]

exactly. there is an increasing amount of money to be made on the courthouse steps.

I used to go buy tax property for a guy when I was in HS. The Seminole County Treasurer got a little ticked off at me when I was the only person there in Wewoka to bid on her property. The law was ( I don't know what it is now) that you could buy the property for the taxes owed or 2/3 the assesed value, whichever was less. I bought two of the pieces he sent me for for under the taxes owed.

[SoonerInKCMO]

what worries me is all the dumbasses that bought homes with these crazy no-interest loans or adjustable rate mortgages or got a equity loan on top of that, and have zero to negative equity!

This was from March:
http://www.zillowblog.com/zillow_blog/mortgages/index.html

Dude - back in March you were all "nuh-uh, housing isn't going down - it's as strong as it's ever been!" :D

[LilSooner]

Yes, I've been waiting for this to happen. I'm gonna get a sweet *** house now. Silly people.

[1stTimeCaller]

Yes, I've been waiting for this to happen. I'm gonna get a sweet *** house now. Silly people.

I saw a sweet house on here a while back that I'm sure you'd like. It had a killer mirror wall in the kitchen.

[LilSooner]

Gross.

[OklahomaTuba]

Dude - back in March you were all "nuh-uh, housing isn't going down - it's as strong as it's ever been!" :D

I don't believe I ever said housing or the economy would ever go down. I think thats your revisionist history talking there.

What I remember talking about was the economy, factoring in things such as the unemployment rate, housing, household wealth, consumer confidence, spending, Industrial expansions, investment growth, etc.

I never said housng would never go down, or that is wasn't slowing. The fact is still the same, even if it slows down from RECORD LEVELS, it could still be strong. A concept that you and others couldn't seem to grasp at that moment.

Now it seems its much weaker, at least in the areas of the country where property values have been raising 100% a year or so (housing bubble). I doubt its much of a concern here in the midwest and Oklahoma, so we should be all good.

[SoonerInKCMO]

Wow. Talk about 'revisionist history'.

[Penguin]

Honestly, KCMO, I don't see how you are even worthy of posting in the same thread as Tuba.

[SoonerInKCMO]

Honestly, KCMO, I don't see how you are even worthy of posting in the same thread as Tuba.

You make a good point. :(

[OklahomaTuba]

Wow. Talk about 'revisionist history'.
No, that would be YOUR revisionist history. Still don't see where I said housing would NEVER slow down.

Heres the link BTW:

http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71043

[OklahomaTuba]

Honestly, KCMO, I don't see how you are even worthy of posting in the same thread as Tuba.

Its a tough job, but someone has to educate the uneducated, so might as well be me. :D

[Sooner24]

They are building houses left and right here in Ardmore and most of them have a sold sign in the yard before they are finished building them.

[Scott D]

No, that would be YOUR revisionist history. Still don't see where I said housing would NEVER slow down.

Heres the link BTW:

http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71043

I think you should have researched further back into the thread where we disagreed on housing and real estate values including overinflatedness.

[BeetDigger]

I think the biggest impact is going to be in the foreclosures as well as in the areas where there were huge run ups in value (mainly the coasts). The folks who bought apts. and homes just to flip them in a couple of months at a large profit may end up sucking wind.

Personally, I hope that folks aren't too excited about the foreclosures. Yes, some people made bad decisions and may be under water, but those people have families in some instances. I am never happy about people who don't make a lot of money or who are un-intellegent losing big time. Now as far as the profiteers go, I say f-em, let them lose their shirts.

[OklahomaTuba]

I think you should have researched further back into the thread where we disagreed on housing and real estate values including overinflatedness.
I guess i don't remember. I spew a lot of crap on here, so pardon the forgetfulness. ;)

Theres no doubt prices were/are inflated in some parts of the country (not OK), but that was my point, people were/are buying at those prices. The economy can't be all that bad if people are paying a premium for real estate and they are getting loans. The banks and underwriters aren't that stupid.

[royalfan5]

The banks and underwriters aren't that stupid.
You would think that, yet banks and financial insitutions have had problems with bad loans and ideas in the past. The 80's S and L's jump to mind in regards to real estate.

[sooneron]

This thread cracks me up.

[OklahomaTuba]

You would think that, yet banks and financial insitutions have had problems with bad loans and ideas in the past. The 80's S and L's jump to mind in regards to real estate.
Very true. I guess they aren't as smart as I would hope they would be! :cool:

[sooneron]

I guess i don't remember. I spew a lot of crap on here, so pardon the forgetfulness. ;)


Odds that this becomes hatifield or Johnny Mack's sig going off at 5-3.

[Ike]

Odds that this becomes hatifield or Johnny Mack's sig going off at 5-3.

heh

[SicEmBaylor]

I guess i don't remember. I spew a lot of crap on here, so pardon the forgetfulness. ;)

Theres no doubt prices were/are inflated in some parts of the country (not OK), but that was my point, people were/are buying at those prices. The economy can't be all that bad if people are paying a premium for real estate and they are getting loans. The banks and underwriters aren't that stupid.

Heh.

[Boarder]

Wow, the economy was on a downswing before Jan 2009? Amazing.

[royalfan5]

It looks my thoughts on this thread were a little more accurate than mine on Frank Martin's ability to sustain a program at K-State.