View Full Version : Dear Forecasters,
mdklatt
7/18/2006, 04:57 PM
I'm not a forecaster, and I was never even in the NFC like a lot you weenies when I was a student, but let me give you some advice. If the high yesterday was 108 F, and we have the exact same weather pattern for today, it doesn't make much sense to forecast a high of only 104 F, now does it?
It is good to see that you've finally taken that slow cooling trend out of the forecast, seeing as how it's only gotten hotter over the last seven days and nothing's going to change until that front moves through this weekend. Speaking of that--are you really so sure you want to put that in the forecast? Surely you know how persistent this ridging pattern is, and how the forecast models tend to exaggerate fronts, especially so far in advance.
I like it when models exaggerate their fronts....
Widescreen
7/18/2006, 05:01 PM
Yeah, those ridging patterns can be a beyotch.
I think we need a stabby where mdklatt can do his own forecasts. If he's right 60% of the time we'll get him a job on TV.
Kinda like Hell's Kitchen but different.
:D
mdklatt
7/18/2006, 05:07 PM
Kinda like Hell's Kitchen but different.
That show is awesome.
You call that medium rare you fat **** **** **** piece of **** **** ****? Now get your **** **** **** *** over here and **** **** **** fix it before I **** **** **** **** you in the **** **** ****. **** **** ****.
Penguin
7/18/2006, 05:21 PM
A meteorologist is like a baseball hitter.
If you do your job 30% of the time, you're considered one of the best.
Partial Qualifier
7/18/2006, 05:41 PM
A meteorologist is like a baseball hitter.
If you do your job 30% of the time, you're considered one of the best.
See, I thought you were going to say "They will continue to do the wrong things because nobody holds them accountable"
You got me :)
NormanPride
7/18/2006, 05:48 PM
I think it's funny that people care about the difference between 104F and 108F. IT'S JUST HOT, PEOPLE.
trwxxa
7/18/2006, 06:48 PM
We are past the summer solstice so the amount of daylight is decreasing by about 1 minute per day.
I got nuthin.
mdklatt
7/18/2006, 07:00 PM
I think it's funny that people care about the difference between 104F and 108F. IT'S JUST HOT, PEOPLE.
Try answering the phones at a NWS office and you'll see how much people care. :eek:
mdklatt
7/18/2006, 07:01 PM
We are past the summer solstice so the amount of daylight is decreasing by about 1 minute per day.
I got nuthin.
Good point--I didn't consider that. :D
IB4OU2
7/18/2006, 07:16 PM
How difficult is it to forecast that it's going to be hot as hell in mid July? ;)
Widescreen
7/18/2006, 07:46 PM
A few years ago I was in the bay area and was watching the news. The "meterologists" out there are under considerably less pressure than they are in this part of the country. Apparently a forecast of "Highs in the 70's or 80's" is accurate enough for San Francisco. That wouldn't fly around here.
mdklatt
7/19/2006, 11:24 AM
Monday's forecast high for Norman: 104 F
Monday's actual high for Norman: 108 F
Tuesday's forecast high for Norman: 104 F
Tuesday's actual high for Norman: 109 F
Wednesday's forecast high for Norman: 105 F
Wednesday's actual high for Norman: stay tuned
Why, NWS, why?! I'm using the point forecasts from the NWS web site to get the forecast numbers for Norman; this is based on a computer algorithm, and I'm not sure if the human forecasters are able to tweak it.
The wind is more out of the west than expected, so look for us to blow by 105 like my mom driving a Ferarri. If the winds stay they way they are we could easily reach 110+ F as the dewpoint drops a few degrees.
Newbomb Turk
7/19/2006, 11:25 AM
great - just great. :mad:
TheHumanAlphabet
7/19/2006, 11:49 AM
I'm not a forecaster, and I was never even in the NFC like a lot you weenies when I was a student, but let me give you some advice. If the high yesterday was 108 F, and we have the exact same weather pattern for today, it doesn't make much sense to forecast a high of only 104 F, now does it?
Could be due to many things, winds, humidity/moisture, location of the high, etc.
Mixing due to winds may reduce the heat at ground level.
Increased humidity makes it more difficult to heat the atm.
If the high moved, the sinking air associated with it may not warm the air over the forecast area as much as if it was closer.
Just a few reasons...
Hamhock
7/19/2006, 12:46 PM
Monday's forecast high for Norman: 104 F
Monday's actual high for Norman: 108 F
Tuesday's forecast high for Norman: 104 F
Tuesday's actual high for Norman: 109 F
Wednesday's forecast high for Norman: 105 F
Wednesday's actual high for Norman: stay tuned
Why, NWS, why?! I'm using the point forecasts from the NWS web site to get the forecast numbers for Norman; this is based on a computer algorithm, and I'm not sure if the human forecasters are able to tweak it.
The wind is more out of the west than expected, so look for us to blow by 105 like my mom driving a Ferarri. If the winds stay they way they are we could easily reach 110+ F as the dewpoint drops a few degrees.
what is the temp in norman now?
GottaHavePride
7/19/2006, 12:51 PM
102, according to my computer.
Newbomb Turk
7/19/2006, 12:56 PM
It's ONLY 101 at Will Rogers. :rolleyes:
mdklatt
7/19/2006, 12:58 PM
102, according to my computer.
And it jumped 2 degrees in twenty minutes to get there. However, we're off of yesterday's pace, despite the SW wind.
OUTromBoNado
7/19/2006, 01:13 PM
Why, NWS, why?! I'm using the point forecasts from the NWS web site to get the forecast numbers for Norman; this is based on a computer algorithm, and I'm not sure if the human forecasters are able to tweak it.
They can tweak that stuff. They have the option of entering their own numbers then using the computer to tweak it for terrain effects. They can also enter their own choice of model guidance and then tweak it on their own. I think most of the time, they look for which model is producing a forecast that is more consistent and looks to be accurate and then adjusting things slightly up or down as needed.
Keep in mind, the point forecast system (particularly the graphical stuff) is still an experimental, although widely used product. The stuff still has some major software bugs and doesn't always get along with the standard AWIPS suite.
And there is my obligatory post on this thread.:hot:
mdklatt
7/19/2006, 01:28 PM
They can tweak that stuff. They have the option of entering their own numbers then using the computer to tweak it for terrain effects. They can also enter their own choice of model guidance and then tweak it on their own. I think most of the time, they look for which model is producing a forecast that is more consistent and looks to be accurate and then adjusting things slightly up or down as needed.
Which begs the question, why are they so afraid of persistance when it seems to be the rule of the day (week, actually)? Missing high on the forecast is far better than missing low in a situation like this.
OUTromBoNado
7/19/2006, 04:42 PM
The different between the forecasted and actual highs probably have something to do with how they forecasted winds speeds and/or moisture.
mdklatt
7/19/2006, 04:50 PM
The different between the forecasted and actual highs probably have something to do with how they forecasted winds speeds and/or moisture.
They've been missing low all week. It's time to give persistance a shot. The worst thing that's going to happen is that it's not as hot as you said it would be, and that's an error people will easily forgive you for.
OUHOMER
7/19/2006, 06:59 PM
well, the forcast is for 110 on friday, i hope they miss it
Newbomb Turk
7/19/2006, 07:22 PM
What they predict doesn't change what it gets to. 3 or 4 degrees isn't that big of a deal to me.
mdklatt
7/19/2006, 07:47 PM
Wednesday's actual high for Norman: stay tuned
And the winner is...108 F. Again.
Somebody's been reading this thread:
Thursday's Forecast: 108 F
Friday's Forecast: 109 F
As I suspected would happen as we get closer, our Friday evening rain chances have dropped from 40% to 20% and the Saturday morning rain chances are now gone. They're still sticking to the low 90's for weekend highs despite the higher forecast temps for Friday. Good luck with that.
Newbomb Turk
7/21/2006, 03:48 PM
well, the forcast is for 110 on friday, i hope they miss it
We have a north wind now, and the highest I've seen today is 103.
Flagstaffsooner
7/21/2006, 03:53 PM
Damn, they forcasted 83 here and it got to 88. 73 now:O .
I guess I deserve :hot: negs.;)
mdklatt
7/21/2006, 03:57 PM
the highest I've seen today is 103
Oklahoma County gets all the luck. :mad:
108 F in Norman.
Flagstaffsooner
7/21/2006, 04:04 PM
Oklahoma County gets all the luck. :mad:
108 F in Norman.Its the radiation from the Holy Altar.
http://www.mindspring.com/~tbgray/images/untokla2.jpg
mdklatt
7/21/2006, 04:06 PM
Its the radiation from the Holy Altar.
http://www.mindspring.com/~tbgray/images/untokla2.jpg
Heh. On more than one occassion the only hole in the clouds for fifty miles has been over Owen Field during a game.
Newbomb Turk
7/21/2006, 04:08 PM
It's 101 in the shade on my patio right now - NW OKC. I'm sure my thermometer isn't exact, but it's pretty close.
Flagstaffsooner
7/21/2006, 04:11 PM
Heh. On more than one occassion the only hole in the clouds for fifty miles has been over Owen Field during a game.That's so God can watch his team.
It's up to 76 in KC this afternoon.
mdklatt
7/21/2006, 04:24 PM
Wind: N 17
Temp: 106 F
Mother****er.
Newbomb Turk
7/21/2006, 04:29 PM
Wind: N 17
Temp: 106 F
Mother****er.
but the north wind makes it feel like 105 ;)
mdklatt
7/21/2006, 04:32 PM
but the north wind makes it feel like 105 ;)
Wind direction is irrelvant to wind chill. Seventeen knots makes it feel like 105. :D
SoonerBorn68
7/21/2006, 04:33 PM
I guess a cool front moved in. It's only about 82 here in the panhandle.
Newbomb Turk
7/21/2006, 04:34 PM
Wind direction is irrelvant to wind chill.
well, it must be in my mind then that a north wind feels cooler than a south wind.
mdklatt
7/21/2006, 04:37 PM
well, it must be in my mind then that a north wind feels cooler than a south wind.
Only because north winds mean cooler air to begin with.
Except for right now. :mad:
Newbomb Turk
7/21/2006, 04:39 PM
Only because north winds mean cooler air to begin with.
gotcha.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.1 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.