The latest on Alberto

[slickdawg]

You Kids in Florida be safe! Due to the geography in the area where
Alberto should make landfall, there may be a storm surge up to 10 feet.



TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
100 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE
WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.5 N...85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[slickdawg]

Latest model guidance:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_01.gif

[White House Boy]

Latest model guidance:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_01.gif


I hope that pink line is wrong.

[slickdawg]

I hope that pink line is wrong.


It is very likely wrong. That's the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (GFDL). The GFDL is one of the most respected models around.
The NHC is usually influenced in its forecast by the GFDL, as it is usually
dead on FOR MATURE SYSTEMS. Alberto is far from mature, it's
very asymmetrical, so even if Alberto took the GFDL's path, all of the weather
will go into the peninsula of Florida. The westerlies will guide him in at
the big bend.

People in that area need to take notice, Alberto is 4MPH away from being a
Category one hurricane.

[slickdawg]

IR satellite images show that Alberto's cloud tops are warming - that's
good news for people in his path. That mean's it's not as string as it was.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[noleamite]

i've been feeling the outer band effects from Alberto since yesterday. -middle finger- Alberto!

[VeeJay]

I saw the season's first Weather Poser this morning on Fox News. He was on Clearwater Beach in one of those bright blue hooded GoreTex hurricane jackets - on the beach, alone, awaiting calamity and devastation.

The camera zeroed in on the ocean behind him - there was barely a ripple. No big waves were crashing over the breaker, no 16 foot dinghy smashing against the rocks, no surfer dudes momentarily going under the rip tides, no old bearded geezer wading through knee deep water carrying a case of Milwaukee's Best Light, nary even a police cruiser to be found.

Kudos to the production team, though. It wasn't raining, no wind, yet the Weather Poser's hair (what I could see of it underneath the hood of his bright blue GoreTex hurricane jacket), was soaked. Methinks they splashed him with a Dash O' Gulf for added value.