View Full Version : Since certain people keep saying the economy is bad
I wish the FED would lower the interest rates- not RAISE them. You don't raise them when the economy is bad. I still get about 50 hours a week in, but I can tell that there aren't nearly as many new homes being built as last year. Or maybe it's just my imagination.
yermom
6/10/2006, 09:49 AM
i think everyone knows the housing market is in trouble
i think everyone knows the housing market is in trouble
1 load from my truck will be enough to fill about 11 mixer trucks. Also it is enough to build one new average size home..like 2200sq/ft or something. So, you figure, every load I bring in is a new house. Last year it was 18-25 loads a week. This year 10-15.
Of course, we also do commercial and government jobs, like paving. I don't have the info to factor that in.
oumartin
6/10/2006, 10:02 AM
new housing market is down !
also, since greenspan has stepped down the new guy doens't seem to grasp it.
he couldn't leave well enuff alone.
Scott D
6/10/2006, 10:12 AM
impossible, Tuba assured us recently that the housing market is booming.
yermom
6/10/2006, 10:16 AM
interest only loans and inflated prices can only last for so long
oumartin
6/10/2006, 10:19 AM
i'm still confused how people that make 100,000 grand a year buy million dollar homes.
yermom
6/10/2006, 10:21 AM
they pay nothing into the equity and hope that they can sell it in a few years for a profit and start over
oumartin
6/10/2006, 10:30 AM
yeah, but wouldn't that have your debt to income all outta kilter?
yermom
6/10/2006, 10:37 AM
i don't think that matters with housing anymore or something
OklahomaTuba
6/10/2006, 12:32 PM
impossible, Tuba assured us recently that the housing market is booming.
And it still is.
yermom
6/10/2006, 12:35 PM
based on what?
a quick google search gave me this, which is basically what i was talking about:
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
Okla-homey
6/10/2006, 12:35 PM
If the economy was any better we couldn't stand it. Everyone I know is sitting pretty and the ones who aren't tend to be losers anyway. Best economy since 1951 IMHO.
OklahomaTuba
6/10/2006, 12:36 PM
Oh, and Oklahoma is @ Full employment.
May 20--Oklahoma's unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent in April -- its lowest rate since July 2001 when the state had a 3.5 percent rate, according to nonseasonally adjusted data released Friday.
http://www.blackenterprise.com/yb/ybopen.asp?section=ybem&story_id=93395926&ID=blackenterprise
yermom
6/10/2006, 12:38 PM
yay! service jobs!
Okla-homey
6/10/2006, 12:39 PM
Oh, and Oklahoma is @ Full employment.
http://www.blackenterprise.com/yb/ybopen.asp?section=ybem&story_id=93395926&ID=blackenterprise
Of course in the interest of fair and balanced reporting, some might object that many of these jobs are min wage and thus don't pay enough to avoid foreclosure on the trailer.
To them I say, LEARN A TRADE DUMARSE! There are vo-techs in every county in Oklahoma. Get off yer arse and learn how to do something that pays decent coin.
OklahomaTuba
6/10/2006, 12:39 PM
based on what?
a quick google search gave me this, which is basically what i was talking about:
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
Based on facts, not crazy "the world is ending" blogs as the one you linked too.
If there was a housing crash, than household values WOULD NOT be gaining value.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The net wealth of American households rose in the first quarter of 2006 as real estate and financial assets gained value, while growth in nonfinancial debt rose at the fastest rate since 1986, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/09/news/economy/household_wealth.reut/
yermom
6/10/2006, 12:43 PM
if real-estate prices are going up and avg salaries are dropping, what do you think will happen?
how about the Fed raising interest rates with all of the ARM loans?
StoopTroup
6/10/2006, 12:44 PM
Eventually we will need less computer nerds and the economy will crumble. Technology will eventually begin it's downward spiral from the top of it's maturity curve. Folks who had once raked it in will be disgarded and the rich speculators will buy up their lives at ten cents on the dollar. Life will be good for those of us who are prepared. The rest of you will become street vermin. ;)
OklahomaTuba
6/10/2006, 12:45 PM
Of course in the interest of fair and balanced reporting, some might object that many of these jobs are min wage and thus don't pay enough to avoid foreclosure on the trailer.
To them I say, LEARN A TRADE DUMARSE! There are vo-techs in every county in Oklahoma. Get off yer arse and learn how to do something that pays decent coin.
If the economy is at full employment, the market will raise wages, and it already is. Unfortunaly, inflation is probably going to eat it all up with energy prices.
Even so, the economy is hardly doing bad, in fact its very very well. If energy was cheaper, it would probably be too hot!
StoopTroup
6/10/2006, 12:46 PM
We are helping use less energy right now by brewing sun tea.
Octavian
6/10/2006, 12:48 PM
Eventually we will need less computer nerds and the economy will crumble. Technology will eventually begin it's downward spiral from the top of it's maturity curve. Folks who had once raked it in will be disgarded and the rich speculators will buy up their lives at ten cents on the dollar. Life will be good for those of us who are prepared. The rest of you will become street vermin. ;)
yep...best get a civil service job w/ guaranteed job security ;)
OklahomaTuba
6/10/2006, 12:50 PM
if real-estate prices are going up and avg salaries are dropping, what do you think will happen?
how about the Fed raising interest rates with all of the ARM loans?
Avg salaries are dropping? That difficult to be true when unemployment is so low.
And if people can't afford thier notes, they need to sale their damn house. And this would seem to be a great time to sale, since the unemployment rate is so low and the housing market is so good.
OklahomaTuba
6/10/2006, 12:59 PM
More proof of the great Bush depression ravaging the fruited plain...
College graduates are landing fat salaries and signing bonuses again as a stronger economy leads to the best college hiring market in years.
Employers expect their college hiring for 2005-06 to surpass that of the year before by nearly 14%, according to a study by the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE).
Aggressive hiring also means that many salary offers are outstripping last year's: The average starting salary offer for accounting degree graduates is up 5.4% over last spring, to $46,188, while salary offers for computer-engineering graduates are up 5.3%, to $54,200. http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2006-05-16-graduates-salaries_x.htm
http://www.nps.gov/ozar/Depression%20Food%20Line.JPG
StoopTroup
6/10/2006, 01:04 PM
I've been canning broth for 5 years now. I will be the Oklahoma sOUp NaZi when it all starts to crumble. People will camp outside my sOUp kitchen.
yermom
6/10/2006, 01:04 PM
Avg salaries are dropping? That difficult to be true when unemployment is so low.
And if people can't afford thier notes, they need to sale their damn house. And this would seem to be a great time to sale, since the unemployment rate is so low and the housing market is so good.
well, what happens when everyone needs to sell their house? or at least more people selling than can afford to buy?
like Homey said, just because people are employed, that doesn't mean everyone is making real money and could afford a house
yermom
6/10/2006, 01:05 PM
it is nice that college graduates are getting decent jobs again though...
GottaHavePride
6/10/2006, 01:10 PM
Except for musicians. :eddie:
All in all, Tuba's right about the housing market. Things are in pretty good shape. But as with all economic news its neither all good nor all bad.
In my neck of the woods, my house has appreciated, (at least comparing what I paid for it a year and a half ago and the asking price of houses recently put on the market in my subdivision) by about 25%. But my experience is a bit on the high end for the metro area overall (In terms of increase in market value). New home construction is on fire, and the price of the houses all seem to be $600,000 and up around me. I, for one, hope the trend continues.
SUMMARY
Economic growth in the first quarter of 2006 was
significantly greater than the anemic growth
performance of the fourth quarter of 2005. The
labor situation in the first quarter saw continued
job growth and low unemployment. Mortgage
interest rates and housing affordability were
basically flat in the quarter. Housing market
performance was mixed, with production levels
setting new records but housing sales declining.
Single-family starts and completions both set new
records in the first quarter. Sales of new and
existing homes declined but were still at very high
levels. Some concern that inventories of homes
available for sale were too high resulted from the
inventory of new homes available for sale being at a
record high level and the inventory of existing
homes increasing 40 percent in the past year. The
homeownership rate declined to 68.5 percent in the
first quarter of 2006.
http://www.huduser.org/periodicals/ushmc/spring06/USHMC_06Q1_summary.pdf
OklahomaTuba
6/10/2006, 01:13 PM
well, what happens when everyone needs to sell their house? or at least more people selling than can afford to buy?
Well, a massive housing crash not seen since the 1930's probably.
But as I have shown you, household wealth has risen a lot, and real estate is usually a damn good investment over time.
like Homey said, just because people are employed, that doesn't mean everyone is making real money and could afford a house
Yet home ownership is at RECORD LEVELS, and again, unemployment is very low.
Instead of trying to find the worst in the time, perhaps be glad its doing so well considering how unstable the world is right now? Energy is sky high, there is war and rumors of war, and yet the economy is booming. We should all be very proud of this instead of trying to downplay it.
Okla-homey
6/10/2006, 01:17 PM
Well, a massive housing crash not seen since the 1930's probably.
But as I have shown you, household wealth has risen a lot, and real estate is usually a damn good investment over time.
Yet home ownership is at RECORD LEVELS, and again, unemployment is very low.
Instead of trying to find the worst in the time, perhaps be glad its doing so well considering how unstable the world is right now? Energy is sky high, there is war and rumors of war, and yet the economy is booming. We should all be very proud of this instead of trying to downplay it.
Thank God for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans which help insulate us from assorted world nuttiness.
yermom
6/10/2006, 01:19 PM
Well, a massive housing crash not seen since the 1930's probably.
But as I have shown you, household wealth has risen a lot, and real estate is usually a damn good investment over time.
Yet home ownership is at RECORD LEVELS, and again, unemployment is very low.
Instead of trying to find the worst in the time, perhaps be glad its doing so well considering how unstable the world is right now? Energy is sky high, there is war and rumors of war, and yet the economy is booming. We should all be very proud of this instead of trying to downplay it.
i must have missed that...
i never said buying a house wasn't a sound investment... assuming you are buying with a fixed rate and within your means
walkoffsooner
6/10/2006, 01:19 PM
i'm in a position that I know exactly how the economy is doing.Suicides seam to be normal.
etouffee
6/10/2006, 02:03 PM
i'm in a position that I know exactly how the economy is doing.Suicides seam to be normal.could you elaborate on that?
:confused::confused::confused:
Scott D
6/10/2006, 02:03 PM
emt I'm guessing.
Scott D
6/10/2006, 02:04 PM
And it still is.
don't tell me...tell Jerk.
etouffee
6/10/2006, 02:10 PM
emt I'm guessing.yeah, that's likely. still, even if the suicide rate is up, it's not an indicator of a bad economy. it's more likely an indicator of stupid people getting themselves into too much debt. that's not the economy, that's personal responsibility.
yermom
6/10/2006, 02:11 PM
it does explain the employment rates though :P
it does explain the employment rates though :P
You are on to something there. The labor participation rates in the US are down and have been declining for a couple of years. This probably has something (not everything) to do with current unemployment rates.
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content/media/attachment/data/econ_research/0602/document/dd020306.pdf
yermom
6/10/2006, 02:44 PM
i was joking that the unemployed were offing themselves, thus helping out TubZ's numbers
i was joking that the unemployed were offing themselves, thus helping out TubZ's numbers
I realize that you had your tongue in your cheek. My point was that the labor force participation rate has declined, for whatever reason, and that does, potentially, have an effect on the published unemployment stats. Nevertheless, economic hardship is a suicide risk factor. Data tend to show that as unemployment rates increase, so to do suicide rates. The correlation is not perfect, but there nevertheless.
etouffee
6/10/2006, 04:05 PM
economic hardship is a suicide risk factor. Yes, it certainly is, but let's make sure we're not confusing terms here. "Economic hardship" in the suicide risk context does NOT refer to a "bad economy"; it refers to the individual's personal financial situation. People can get hopeless into debt and off themselves even during a booming economy.
Data tend to show that as unemployment rates increase, so to do suicide rates. True, but unemployment in the US has been holding steady or improving lately. Now if you want to get into "participation rates", that may be a different story. Still, I'd have a hard time feeling sorry for someone who voluntarily withdraws from the workforce then turns around and kills himself over his employment situation.
etoufee,
Of course, you're right to point out the difference between what might be called "personal troubles" versus "social issues." That Joe lost his job and "offed" himself is a personal trouble. That suicide rates tend to be higher when economic circumstances are bad is a "social issue." One cannot attribute any individual suicide to a bad economy. But at the same time, one cannot conclude that societal conditions have no affect on individual behavior. These kind of conclusions fall under what are called "individualist fallacies," and "ecological fallacies."
etouffee
6/10/2006, 04:28 PM
I wasn't suggesting anything of the sort. I was, however, pointing out that the current US economy is not "bad" enough to be causing suicides, so if there is an increase in suicides, there is some other cause.
If we were in a deep recession or a depression, inflation was rampant, and umemployment was a lot higher than it is now, then I'd be willing to entertain arguments about the economy as a factor in suicide rates climbing.
And I don't dismiss the possibility in the near term; if interest rates continue to rise, a lot of these dolts who got in too deep by buying absurdly overpriced houses with crazy adjustable mortgage programs or interest-only loans are going to find themselves in very dire situations.
etoufee,
We have no disagreement on these points. As you seem to note, as macro-economic circumstances change, micro-economic decisions are affected. I was not trying to argue anything about current suicide rates and current economic performance, only trying to point out that individual decisions tend to be based on short term expectations. Predicting the future doesn't assure anyone of being correct, rather, one must make decisions on the information at hand. That the overall ROI on investments in the stock market in the long term is positive doesn't negate that folks have lost money in stock speculation. Some folks bets win, others lose, often having nothing to do with the "intelligence" of those making bets. Sometimes you're in the right place at the right time, other times you're not.
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