Stages of Tropical Cyclone Development - Stanley is there

[slickdawg]

Most folks are familiar with the progression of a tropical cyclone in this
order:

tropical depression
tropical storm
hurricane


Before a system is classified as a tropical depression, but conditions
are somewhat favorable for development, that system is classified as
an invest. We have our first invest of the yeat, just off the Yucatan,
invest 90L.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/ATL/90L.INVEST/pacific/southern_hemisphere/ir/geo/ir/geo/1km_bw/20060608.1415.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.90LINVEST.20kts-1009mb-173N-881W.100pc.jpg


The first model plots of this invest show:


http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/742/al9020069uh.png


Now this thing could fizzle out just as much as it could develop.

Life on the coast.

[Mjcpr]

Would it be possible to get you to track the weather patterns for my trip to Orlando next Saturday?

TIA

[OUinFLA]

follow the orange line.

[slickdawg]

NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) is their flagship model.

First thing to remember is that model guidance > 72 hours is usually worthless.

Right now, nothing significant for the state of Florida next weekend.

But, I've gotta give the GFS credit - it called for this invest almost two weeks ago, it was just a day off.

[Mjcpr]

follow the orange line.

I was afraid of that. :D

[slickdawg]

Gee, this just keeps getting better. They are preparing to send the
Hurricane Hunters out tomorrow, should conditions warrant:


577
NOUS42 KNHC 081500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 08 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR YUCATAN NORTHERN COAST 10/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[colleyvillesooner]

Cabo, August 10. Get on it.

[Mjcpr]

Right now, nothing significant for the state of Florida next weekend.

Good. Let me know if anything comes up for June 17 - 22 please.

[JohnnyMack]

Cabo, August 10. Get on it.

Hot. Possibly wet.

[mdklatt]

First thing to remember is that model guidance > 72 hours is usually worthless.



But the ensemble plot does show reasonable agreement....

[Mjcpr]

Hot. Possibly wet.

Willing?

[slickdawg]

Boy, they aren't screwing around. NOAA cancelled one computer model run
to schedule a special tropical model run. Here's some more model graphics.
The black dotted line is the "extrapolated" path, that is, if the system
stayed on the exact path it's on now. It comes to me.

But the models are doing their normal windshield wiper for early tropical cyclogenesis.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

[JohnnyMack]

Willing?

Where are you taking me to dinner?

[colleyvillesooner]

Hot. Possibly wet.

Both. For sure :D

[mdklatt]

But the models are doing their normal windshield wiper for early tropical cyclogenesis.



I thought you were a computer geek, not a weather weenie. :confused:

[slickdawg]

I thought you were a computer geek, not a weather weenie. :confused:

I am both, degreed in computers but love the weather. If meteorology had won out, I'd have been at OU.

But many of the operational oceanographic and atmospheric models run on my supercomputers. :D

[Fugue]

I am both, degreed in computers but love the weather. If meteorology had won out, I'd have been at OU.

But many of the operational oceanographic and atmospheric models run on my supercomputers. :D

A "Perfect Nerd Storm" if you will. :texan:

only keeding

[colleyvillesooner]

A "Perfect Nerd Storm" if you will. :texan:

only keeding

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnBBrBgkWzM

[slickdawg]

A "Perfect Nerd Storm" if you will. :texan:

only keeding


Now that's funny, I don't care who you are! :D

[mdklatt]

I am both, degreed in computers but love the weather.

Heh. I'm the opposite.

[JohnnyMack]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnBBrBgkWzM

Mrs. Garrett's cleavage.

Heh.

[slickdawg]

Heh. I'm the opposite.


my brethren geek! :D

[OUinFLA]

my brethren geek! :D

you're both weather nerds.
I on the other hand am just a weather victim.

[OUinFLA]

Dave Barry on the Impending Hurricane Season
DAVE BARRY

The 2006 hurricane season is here, and if you're a resident of Florida, you
know what that means: It means you have the IQ of bean dip. If you had any
working brain cells, by now you'd have moved to some less risky place, such
as Iraq. This is especially true after last hurricane season, which was so
bad that we went all the way through the alphabet of official names and had
to refer to the last batch of hurricanes by making primitive grunting
sounds.

Unfortunately, it appears we're in for another bad season. The National
Center for Making Everybody Nervous About Hurricanes is predicting that
this season there will be 10 major hurricanes, defined as ``hurricanes that
cause Bryan Norcross to lose his voice.''

According to the center's computer simulations, at least four of those
storms will hit the mainland United States, and at least one of those will
come directly to your house and cause a tree branch, traveling at 150 mph,
to impale you through your chest. (Bear in mind that these are only
predictions. It could also be your skull.)

IMPORTANT TIPS
That's why it is so important that you be ready for hurricane season. Here
are some tips to help you prepare:

TIP 1: TRY TO HAVE SOME KIND OF A CLUE.
Let me explain:
When a hurricane is approaching South Florida, we get a LOT of advance
warning. Usually for the entire week leading up to its arrival, the
newspaper prints large headlines that say HURRICANE COMING, along with many
stories reminding people to stock up on water, gas and food. All the radio
stations announce roughly every 25 seconds that a hurricane is coming and
people will need water, gas and food. On TV, Bryan spends hour after hour
pointing at the oncoming radar blob and rasping, in the voice of an ailing
seal, about the need to stock up on water, gas and food.

So what happens, EVERY SINGLE TIME? I'll tell you! Immediately after the
hurricane passes, lines begin to form all over South Florida -- lines of
people, thousands of them, who are in desperate need of -- water, gas and
food! WHERE HAVE THESE PEOPLE BEEN? Did the hurricane winds just carry them
here from Madagascar? Can they not function on their own for 24 hours
without having to get into a line? How can they not even have WATER?? Were
they not aware that, as the hurricane approached, they could have gotten
all the water they needed MERELY BY TURNING ON THE FREAKING WATER FAUCET???

That's what I mean by ``have some kind of clue.''

TIP 2: BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES.
As you know, Florida Power & Light had some problems last hurricane season,
when it was discovered that, because of an error in the engineering
specifications, thousands of the company's power poles were in fact really
tall breadsticks. FPL has been working hard on this problem, and a company
spokesperson states that this year, if we are struck by another Wilma-level
hurricane, FPL personnel will immediately implement an action plan designed
to provide all customers, as quickly and as safely as possible, with
realistic-sounding excuses as to why their power will not be restored for
an indeterminate period of time.

EXPLANATION OF `OOPS!'
''Our goal is to have plausible excuses for 80 percent of our customers
within three days,'' stated an FPL spokesperson. ``Of course it may take
longer, especially if we have to bring in excuses from other power
companies.''

So just in case, you might want to invest in a generator. These invaluable
machines enable you, even when your power is out, to annoy the hell out of
your neighbors. If you do get a generator, remember the basic rules of
generator safety:

* Don't drink and generate.

* If you are a guy, and you get into a dispute with a neighbor guy over who
has a bigger generator, do NOT attempt to settle the dispute by holding a
``spark-off.''

* Never bathe with a generator while it is running.

MOVE IT OR LOSE IT
One final note: If we do lose power, the traffic signals will be out.
That's why it's so important to remember:

TIP 3: KNOW THE CORRECT PROCEDURE FOR A FOUR-WAY STOP.
What do I mean by ''the correct procedure for a four-way stop?'' I mean:
Get out of my way.
Ciao!

[slickdawg]

Wow, it's really trying to get going, despite wind shear.

[TUSooner]

I'M NOT LISTENING!!
<puts hands over ears>
LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA !!!!!

[mdklatt]

Something for the ol' hurricane preparedness kit:

http://www.colorado.edu/greeks/images/alphabettran.gif

[Scott D]

so are you saying there is a good chance that Stanley will never return? because colleyville thinks that'd be 'thuper'. :D

[TUSooner]

Gee, this just keeps getting better. They are preparing to send the
Hurricane Hunters out tomorrow, should conditions warrant:


577
NOUS42 KNHC 081500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 08 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR YUCATAN NORTHERN COAST 10/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Are you going to translate some of the NWS jargon for us this summer?
I love that site but a few of them terms goes right over my pore ol' Okie haid.

[slickdawg]

Are you going to translate some of the NWS jargon for us this summer?
I love that site but a few of them terms goes right over my pore ol' Okie haid.


Sure. You want it in english, ebonics, or f'n hillbilly? I'm fluent in all three.

[scaldeddawg]

We need some rain. :)

[slickdawg]

Desperately. Just a tropical depression, nothing major.

[Mjcpr]

Just a tropical depression, nothing major.

There's a good chance ChickSoonerFan is having one this week.

:D

[Fugue]

There's a good chance ChickSoonerFan is having one this week.

:D

limit

[colleyvillesooner]

There's a good chance ChickSoonerFan is having one this week.

:D

Dude, that's a certainty.

[OUinFLA]

There's a good chance ChickSoonerFan is having one this week.

:D

:D POTD

[crawfish]

There's a good chance ChickSoonerFan is having one this week.

:D

I think we should all quote this line. :D

[slickdawg]

Do I at least get an assist on this one? :D

[Scott D]

only if Stanley never returns ;)